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What do you see as the catalyst to cause AAPL to drop some 20-30% in order for your puts to make a decent profit?
I just don't think that is realistic unless some unforeseen outside fat tail event occurs between now and march. If that happens your puts will make money off of dumb luck, not because it was a smart trade structured on the knowledge of current market data.
Even so, profit from dumb luck weighs the same as profit from smart trades (let's just hope it doesn't drop until AFTER I sell my JAN14 calls!).
Good luck sir.
One clarification - He said he bought the $385 put, not the $365 put.
Other than that, I completely agree with you that I don't think AAPL will see the $300 range ever again... Its a long shot trade.
I put the numbers into a spreadsheet I built a few years ago to show the Black-Scholes pricing model for options and entered the data for the MAR14 puts. You can see AAPL price/share on the x-axis along with profit from the 12 puts on the y-axis.
The halfway line represents the option's value around the beginning of February 2014. At that time, AAPL would have to be below $450/share to show even a small profit.
Looks like the only way to make a large profit is on the hope that AAPL will have a significant drop (>10-15%) before the end of the year.
Open interest of only 12 contacts. These were bought mid-November for $121 per contact. So it looks like he made a $1500 bet on a fat-tail event causing AAPL to plummet.
Not likely, but also not an expensive insurance plan.
Max pain for today's options is $560.
Market is working hard to not let AAPL run too far from that, it happens every week.
iPhone preorders for China Mobil customers starts tomorrow.
http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/12/apple-inc-iphones-sale-china/
Its just a tactic sellers use to entice people to buy their shares at the ask. They only load a small amount of shares so it doesn't look like the ask is suffocating with people trying to sell.
I wouldn't be surprised if there was 100 million or more shares to be sold at .0002.
Doesn't really matter for the guys who have been here a while (yourself included). I don't think there's anything Black can do to get me even close to breakeven after that 1500:1 reverse split wiped most of us out.
Its all good though, at least now he's freed up the share structure so he can "raise" $1MM. The president of a company shouldn't have to worry about what happens to the little guy anyway..
Went ahead and sold 1/3 of my position to cover my buy-in.
Will ride the free calls for another week or two to see what happens with the stock.
Not sure its possible to have bad terms. No matter what kind of profit margins they accept, the bottom line is they will suddenly have access to 700 million new cell phone users.
China Mobil would have to make AAPL pay THEM in order for it to be a bad deal.
Hurry up and ink the deal AAPL!
Let's hope we can churn through that and move back up.
Sub $570 now...
Agreed.
I'm holding 30 JAN 600 calls bought back during the August lows.
"WEEEEEE" is also my opinion :)
An open over $570 would be nice. Holding high $572's right now.
I'm not completely convinced the news is priced in already (at least not 100%, as you said).
AAPL has not be in the limelight this year as investors moved to flashier companies with outrageous valuations which left Apple's price to meander over the last 11 months. I think we will see a nice run up through the new year if the China Deal is legitimized by AAPL.
Volume has been well above 30-day average the last 6 trading days.
I dunno, we saw a nice steady climb for the last 2 hours of trading into close today. If it levels out, it might not happen until mid $570's.
Holding my Jan 600 calls for now, I want to see what happens over the next week. Will jump out quick if AAPL decides to sell off.
I'm in the same boat.
Can't decide if people are buying on the expectation of a strong holiday season. Or if they are selling to lock in any gains before the end of the year.
That would be really nice for my JAN 600 calls, up about 125% right now.
Had a nice burst out of the gate, +1%, but wasn't able to hold on. Hopefully the uptrend will continue after it finds support in the mid $550's.
It happens.
My JAN 600 calls were down over 50% last week (and I have a ton of them) and today I'm just over break even.
Nature of the game.
You earned that $8!
minus the $4 you paid...
You earned that $4!
Can I ask why you are so interested in Apple litigation?
Job-related?
Use the info for investment decisions on smaller tech companies?
Thanks
Guess the courts decided Apple didn't steal his idea...
http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/11/apple-inc-aapl-other-patent-win/
Great analysis.
Even AAPL permabear Mr. Michael Blair couldn't disagree with your article!
Good luck finding someone to buy shares at .002 when they are easily picked up at .0003-.0007
Buzz?
iHub posters guessing the selling is over, no matter how "factual" they make it sound, is pure conjecture. Its not buzz.
If I'm not mistaken...
Making the breakout board has no bearing on the company or stock price. Breakout board lists are calculated by an algorithm that finds the stocks with the highest positive rate of change in post count over the past 7 days.
Lots of paid promoters are posting here trying to get people to buy their shares.
Please tell me you're kidding.
The day's high is still about 99.9% lower than my average pps, due to the reverse split and dilution game.
No chance for recovery here.
I followed the link you gave and filed a report. Others I talk to on email will most likely do the same.
Massive dumping today. Most likely the share selling is being rushed because HNSS and its insiders are feeling the heat from disgruntled shareholders who have been sold a fraudulent bill of goods and are taking action against the company.
They have to sell all they can, as fast as they can, before they go dark.
Company says it issued 10.8 BILLION shares of restricted stock, while the OS is supposedly only 1.2 MILLION.
If the 10.8 BILLION was actually restricted, where are 62+ MILLION shares that have been traded today coming from?
I've got almost 10% of the reported OS locked up and not trading (mainly because Black has made it worth a Big Mac and fries).
This is dilution. Black will say he is not selling shares into the market, and he's right. He plays in the gray area. He sells blocks of shares to his inside investors, and they in turn sell those shares into the market for profit. Black makes money, his insiders make money, and he can truthfully say HE did not sell dilutive shares onto the market.
I'm starting to wonder why I haven't started a shell company myself.
"What's your business plan?"
"Oh I create revenue from selling shares of my company to unsuspecting investors."
"You don't provide a product or service to the public?"
"We sell worthless shares to unsuspecting investors..."
Gotta be easier than my job.
Are you kidding me....?
Black gives himself 3.33 BILLION shares "for past unpaid compensation"? His compensation has been the money he bilked from investors as he pimped his lies through PR's!
After the reverse split, there was about 1.2 million shares outstanding. How is he allowed to give himself 3000 times the amount of outstanding shares as payment??
I guess he figures he's driven the pps so low with all his diluting, that it'll take A LOT of shares to suck any cash out of HNSS now.
If you'd put in a typical working person's YEARLY SALARY 2 years ago, Black would have turned that amount into barely enough for a night at the movies through his lying, cheating & stealing.
Unreal.
Just giving you insight on this particular company since I've been around it a while. Its called being nice.
You don't have to act like a 12 year old about it...
Same boat here (maybe even worse off if that's possible).
What's that quote about investing?
- "Want to know how to make a small fortune?"
- "Start with a large fortune and invest." <- Should add "in HNSS" to the end of that line...
Just beware, in this particular company, that they have an almost infinite amount of shares to sell onto the market and almost no buyers. Therefore, the pps has to keep dropping as they look for buyers to sell to. The price can't move higher because the company and its insiders are always stepping in to dump shares to the bid as the bid size increases.
Even for a trade, it will be hard to get out of this one with a profit unless something drastic happens with the company that makes people want to buy shares at the ask. 2+ years of watching HNSS leads me to believe that won't happen.
Good luck.