Apple Inc (AAPL)

[ASimEE]

What do you see as the catalyst to cause AAPL to drop some 20-30% in order for your puts to make a decent profit?

I just don't think that is realistic unless some unforeseen outside fat tail event occurs between now and march. If that happens your puts will make money off of dumb luck, not because it was a smart trade structured on the knowledge of current market data.

Even so, profit from dumb luck weighs the same as profit from smart trades (let's just hope it doesn't drop until AFTER I sell my JAN14 calls!).

Good luck sir.