Tuesday, December 17, 2013 4:49:41 PM
Other than that, I completely agree with you that I don't think AAPL will see the $300 range ever again... Its a long shot trade.
I put the numbers into a spreadsheet I built a few years ago to show the Black-Scholes pricing model for options and entered the data for the MAR14 puts. You can see AAPL price/share on the x-axis along with profit from the 12 puts on the y-axis.
The halfway line represents the option's value around the beginning of February 2014. At that time, AAPL would have to be below $450/share to show even a small profit.
Looks like the only way to make a large profit is on the hope that AAPL will have a significant drop (>10-15%) before the end of the year.
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