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Catz,
WGM is just one of the attorney groups working for LTI. As far as I can tell, they are limited to working to reduce the claims which is what they were supposed to be doing all along. LTI has other attorneys that are litigation specialists that will be pursuing our claims against parties like the insurance companies or hopefully GS.
In order for the new WMIH stock to be distributed to equity and the HF's who were entitled to own it, it had to be registered. At that time you, I and everyone who had equity in the old WAMU received the new stock in their brokerage accounts. You could then list the stock for sale on the electronic bulletin board. There was nothing the company could do about it. I believe certain HF's have been driving the pps down by selling among themselves and in the process they have been creating a sense of angst among certain small shareholders. Some of those people have become scared (with the help of bashers who post about the stock going to 10 or 20 cents) and thy have been selling. You say we can average down. That is true only if someone is actually willing to sell significant amounts at low prices. Yesterday was the first time I was able to buy a significant amount without the posted ask going up. I think someone was caught in the audit with too much stock and was forced to sell. There was a lot of stock available for 45 cents. Maybe there will be more. Maybe not. I wouldn't count on being able to buy several hundred thousand shares at these low prices. You might pick up some and if you only own a few shares you could average down. But for the most part, there isn't enough volume for everyone to average down and I don't believe there are actually many sellers out there. Go in with an offer to buy 10000 shares at the ask and just see what happens. You will get 3 shares and the ask will go up.
A lot of people are completely confused as to what it means to be on the pink sheets. Our company is not listed and there are no market makers. There is an electronic bulletin board where anyone can list shares that they own and ask a price for them. What some people simply refuse to understand is that the price you see quoted on the pinks is simply a price someone (could be a complete nut) says they will buy or sell a stock for. Not any different than striking up a conversation with a drunk in a bar and you tell him you will sell your car for $1000 and he says he will pay $500 and you say OK. That transaction in no way reflects on the value of my car, nor does it reflect on the value of Ford motor company nor anyone else. Nobody can keep that transaction from taking place. Same with the pink sheets where people post what they will sell their stuff for. The WMIH stock you see being sold is owned by private individuals and the BOD and MW have no control if someone wants to do a transaction on the pinks. There is nothing the company can do about it except to continue to work on things they need to get done to become a profitable company, or to somehow merge and utilize the NOL's. Some of us are concerned about what is happening on the pinks because we think it effects what our investment is worth. If you don't sell at these low prices, your investment is worth the same as it was when we emerged from bankruptcy. Our investment consists of an interest in a company that we either think has potential or not. If you continue to believe it has potential (nothing has happened since bankruptcy to indicate anything has changed for the worse) you should hold on or maybe buy more. If the lack of news, or any signs of progress has caused you to lose faith in the company, then you will be unhappy holding on. Crying about it, and bitching and complaining will not change anything except my opinion of you.
Catz, Sometimes it is just better to let people make their own mistakes. It's all part of natural selection. All your help here is costing me money. The more people who refuse to follow instructions will mean more for those who do. When you have children, you sometimes just have to sit back and let them make their own mistakes. :) If someone doesn't want to submit a form, that is requested, well that is certainly their right.
Michael,
I don't know if the pps for P's should go up or if the pps for the commons should go down, but if the POR is approved, all of our P's and UQ's will convert to NEWCO stock at fixed ratios. At present, the ratios are out of whack. As of last Friday, you would get more NEWCO stock by spending the same amount of money on the P's than you would spending it on the commons. That, coupled with the possibility that JMW can still reduce the percentage of NEWCO allocated to commons would seem to make the P's the better choice. It is obvious that logic is not involved when we are discussing share price.
Edit.. I typed this before reading Clawmann's reply where he says essentially the same thing. Just to clarify, I am only saying the ratios are out of whack, not that either issue is under or over valued. I actually think both are undervalued because nobody making evaluations seems to be giving a fair value for the NOL's. Granted that the NOL's represent just a potential future value, still the fact that NEWCO will own them would seem to be worth something.
Voo,
Yes you will get something for your 800,000 commons but at this time you don't know exactly how much as the Judge can still reduce the percentage of NEWCO that commons will receive. You could also sell those 800,000 for around 5 cents and use the proceeds to buy approximately 2500 P's. That would actually give you more shares of the NEWCO than holding the commons. Hey, it is up to you. It's your money and if you want to hold less of the NEWCO, just keep talking about how smart you are to hang on to your 800,000.
Catz is really outdoing himself today. The main problem as I see it is he is going to put the message boards completely out of existence since his posts are so comprehensive that there is really no need for further discussion. Anything and everything you could possibly want to know is all in one place. It is just unfortunate there are still folks here who either can't read or can't understand. It is just hard to believe that all this information was put together an engineer. Much better than the Q&A's put out by a major law firm.
Sorry Jack, but I don't think anyone "knows" the answer to that question. We "know" that early on at least one HF held more than the allowed P's and was forced to liquidate shares. There is much speculation that probably a number of HF's own their allowed 4.5% so in total the HF's could own a considerable number of P's but since they are not required to report their holdings, any number would be just a guess.
"I think the Q/A doc said the deadline for granting releases is February 22nd, on the top of page 5. Is the voting deadline earlier?"
The proposed voting deadline is now February 2. That could change as there will be objections at the DS hearing. I was just calling on people attending that hearing to speak up and voice your concern. I think this short voting window will end up disenfranchising a lot of share owners.
"They own over a 50% majority of preferred shares"
The TPS consortium owns only about 1/3 of the REIT preferreds. The remaining 2/3 are owned by the SNH's who want the POR to pass. The TPS consortium does not hold a blocking position and while they can make a lot of noise, if JMW wants to approve this, she can do it without worrying about TPS. JMO
"SNH's would love nothing better than to short this NEWCO."
It is tough to short a stock if it isn't listed. Might be one reason these are going to be locked up for awhile. I would not be surprised if we somehow merge with some other company without ever formally going on any exchange with NEWCO stock. Our non-listed NEWCO stock would then be exchanged for stock in the merged company. That would save a lot of start-up costs trying to get all the paperwork for listing in order.
I can see how this hurry up voting could lead to all sorts of problems and how if people are not prompt and careful, they could get left out in the cold with nothing. Now everything may change as a result of objections in the DS hearing, but as I understand it now, they are going to start soliciting votes from equity on January 16 and the ballots have to be in by February 2. You have to grant the releases by February 22 and assuming the Plan is approved, if you don't grant the releases you receive no shares in NEWCO and you have no further opportunity to grant releases and get your shares. I don't see any way that everyone is going to be able to comply with that short timeline and I really hope equity folks at the DS hearing loudly object. People are on vacations, maybe on a cruise, maybe living someplace with slow mail service. I know I waited over a week to get my ballots from Schwab and others waited longer. I think this is a train wreck just waiting to happen.
I wouldn't believe anything the TPS folks say about MW or about the POR. Retail equity and TPS are in very different places. For the most part the TPS consortium is a group of HF's that bought the TPS preferreds at pennies on the dollar. They were supposed to be backed by 11 billion in mortgages. The mortgages were given to JPM and the HF's dream on getting back 100 cents on the dollar went with them. They have an appeal on file and they still hope to be paid in full. They want this case to stall out until their appeal is finally heard so to them the goal is to kill any POR. They have little to lose and much to gain. The HF's will lie, cheat and steal to kill this POR and spreading dirt on MW would be a small price to pay to rile up equity and use us to help kill the POR. We as equity are in a very different boat. Stalling is costing money in paying the attorneys every month. Another year waiting for us will wipe us all out. H's , commons, P's it won't matter what you hold, they will all be worthless. TPS is not our friend here. They win by killing the POR. We will lose by killing the POR. Pretty simple when you think about it.
There is a lot of speculation as to what the latest revelations regarding ability to trade the NEWCO stock after the share exchange means. Will we be able to trade shares on the pinks etc., or are we locked in and unable to trade at all until all the registration and SEC reporting compliance's are met? I may be older, but my eyesight is still pretty good and I can still read. The key sentence to me is..
“As of the Effective Date, the Reorganized WMI Interests will not be listed for trading on any national securities exchange or other organized trading market.”
If the pinks are a trading market, then I think we won’t be trading. Also, I think just the simple logistics of exchanging the shares may well preclude trading them at least for a time. We will be getting new CUSP numbers but the new shares won’t be registered until the reporting gets filed. I think it likely new shares will exist as reported on a roster somewhere. Sort of like John Smith 1500 shares, Mike Smith 2050 shares, etc. If they allowed shares to be traded, that roster would have to be updated every second. I don’t think that is going to happen. Much more likely we will all be frozen until we get the registration complete and then we emerge on a market where we can trade again. This will have the added advantage of getting the day traders and penny flippers out of the stock since they won’t want their money tied up while we wait. It will probably also cause some downward pressure on pps as they head for the exits but that just creates buying opportunities for those who see the value of this as a long term investment.
All of the above is just my opinion and interpretation of what I read.
Radium,
That is about as clear an explanation as I have seen. It clearly spells out what will happen. However, don't expect it to make any difference to those stubborn fools who believe what they believe and are not interested in the truth.
Night,
You are correct that nobody on these boards really "knows" anything. We do our best research and develop educated opinions. When I post something here or on the other boards it is my opinion. Sometimes I have been right and sometimes I have been wrong. I have never intentionally tried to mislead anyone and I don't ask anyone to buy or sell anything. As for as the H's go, I bought them as a hedge to protect my investment in P's. As it turned out the SNH's were using them to try to steal the company and JMW made a decision (which I think was in error) that virtually gutted their value. I still don't believe I was wrong about my analysis of the H's but as it turns out I will pay for my opinion. That's life in investing and you won't see me crying about it. As far as my opinion regarding P's not receiving a cash settlement, I don't see where the cash would come from. I would love to be wrong here since I own P's but I just call them as I see them. You can agree or disagree. Makes absolutely no difference to me.
It was sensible until voopoop showed up. :) It's getting late for the older folks so I will have to leave you to continue without me. Lets keep positive thoughts for tomorrow. It could be a good day with buying pressure as the last chance to get in before Monday. I hope to see a green day all around. :)
If Willingham had it to do over again he might very well have bought a more diversified portfolio of WAMU stocks. He bought in before JMW's "Fair and reasonable" ruling. Once he got on the EC he was frozen. Back when Willingham bought his U's, I also owned U's and thought they would see a return. I actually feel they still deserve a return. However as this case has evolved, JMW made some rulings that hurt the U's. You should be smart enough to see that. We have opportunities that Willingham does not have. We can position our portfolio to take advantage of new information. Some of us have done so. If you choose not to, so be it. It's your money.
We all believe that the 160 million valuation of NEWCO is a BS number. The real value appears to be whatever we can monetize the NOL's to be worth. Somewhere between 2 and 5 Billion. It is possible that the addition of commons to the NEWCO will bring with it additional NOL's. I do believe that when we see the actual wording of the settlement, there will be many who will be upset because there is not going to be a cash payout. That is the same for both preferreds and commons. We get value in a company that will not show it's true value for possibly a long time. PPS may go up on settlement news but I suspect it will go up a lot less than many will be hoping for. Keep your expectations in check and you will be less likely to be disappointed. I am not trying to be a wet blanket here, I actually see a very good return (at least for preferreds) but not right away and not in the form of a cash payout.
Just because I am on the U board I am supposed to lie about what I think will happen? I am too old for that BS. I just say it like I see it. I said that we don't know the particulars of the proposed settlement. I said they might get stock in NEWCO or they might get warrants in NEWCO. I don't expect them to get wiped out. I don't understand how that is being disrespectful to owners of commons. If all you want to hear is fantasies of how commons are going to prevail, then you are as delusional as voodoo. You guys are investing real money (most of you anyway) so look for the truth and not what you want to hear. JMO
Just a couple of comments regarding charts. I think they are useful for traders trying to move in and out of stocks. They have some limited value for investors trying to decide on a buy or sell point but only if you also factor in some other information like company reports etc. They are completely useless in a bankruptcy situation if your eventual payoff is determined by negotiations. If the negotiations are behind closed doors, they are not going to show up on the charts. If you are day trading this stock, maybe the charts can help you. If you are holding for a settlement, the charts won't give you a heads up to buy or sell.
Second point. I see certain people stubbornly clinging to the belief that commons are the superior investment and they refuse to believe that things have changed over the last 3 years due to rulings from JMW. As the case has evolved, experienced investor's have changed their outlook to take into account the new conditions. I sold H's when news came out that limited their return. People can choose to follow the advice of folks like Catz who clearly spells out (with facts to back up his assertions) why buying preferreds makes sense for at least a portion of what you have invested in WAMU, or they can follow the advice of someone who just keeps spouting the same old mantra of "Willingham has commons so that is all I am buying" (offering no reasons or proof for their irrational beliefs).
One more thing. I have actually met Catz and found him to be very bright and sincere. He is telling it like he sees it. No hidden agendas. Everyone should do their own DD but I have no qualms about using his input as legitimate information. :)
Moneytree,
People have made money flipping. I wished I had done more of that but I have always felt that eventually there will be a settlement and when that happens we will see a very rapid run up in pps and if you are caught on the wrong side of a flip, you will be left out in the cold. I owned commons pre seizure but with the way this has developed, I am now putting my money on the P's. For a long time I was a firm believer in H's to act as a hedge. JMW's FJR ruling really screwed the H's so I sold most of my H's and now think the P's offer the best odds. I am not flipping them. Just waiting to see where they go if a settlement is announced. Could happen anytime.
VooPoop,
No need to apologize since I have been here far longer than you and am quite aware of who is who when it comes to WAMU. I may be older but I am not yet senile. LOL I suggest you spend your efforts trying to enlighten the unenlightened and I will fend for myself. You could start by working on folks that simply don't comprehend what is going on. There are several here who fit that description. Once you have been here awhile, you can tell who they are since they keep arguing with Catz and post constant drivel. :)
VooPoop,
Welcome to the board. Looking forward to seeing your charts. Looking at your avatar, is that really you or has Inca infiltrated the board? :)
I don't post here very often mostly because we are sort of just waiting for this case to wind down and I don't have a lot new to add. Most discussion seems to be a rehash of what we already talked about. We all do a lot of speculation but we have been proven wrong more often than we have been right. Now we get somebody new coming to the board offering advice and my immediate reaction is profound skepticism. People generally hang out on stock message boards when they have a reason. They either own the stock, or are thinking of buying it. Others come because they want to influence people to buy or sell. Few come because they want to impart knowledge. Anyone can be whoever they want to be on the internet. If someone comes and says they have served on an equity committee, that is possible. It is also possible they have never been near an equity committee. I tend to rely on posters with a history and pretty much ignore new posters until they have proven themselves. But that is just me. :)
You can buy and sell without restrictions. They won't be locked.
I posted the following over on yahoo and am copying it to here for those that don't want to visit Yahoo.
I have been buying and selling the H’s since early 2009. Most people don’t really know what they are and they have been misunderstood from the beginning. I have spoken directly with the trustee and he confided that they were about the most complicated debt instrument he had ever seen. They have been accused of not being debt but instead being another form of equity. JMW finally put that idea to rest and ruled yesterday that they are indeed debt. However they are a trust unit secured by a junior subordinate bond. There is quite a bit of confusion as to what their obligation would be to make senior note holders whole when the FJR is imposed. Maybe they are obligated and maybe they are not. This lack of clarity along with the DIMEQ question makes it very difficult to accurately analyze what the true value of these units (shares) would be. Sleepless is probably the best analyst out there and has put out several different scenarios showing what value would be depending on what happens to DIMEQ and what the WAHUQ’s would owe to senior note holders.
Today we saw a massive sell off of over 2.3 million shares. The pps was killed falling to the $4 range and people on the boards are trying to offer rational explanations as to why that would be a reasonable value. Some of these explanations are quite fanciful and highly speculative. I think the explanation is much simpler. First, there are no professional analysts for these units. Second, there is a big difference in bankruptcy between share value and share price. This morning, one of the big holders of the H’s decided they didn’t want to own them anymore. They either shorted their own shares to get around the lock up, or they convinced someone to unlock them. They started selling into a market where there were few buyers so the pps went down to the point where a large buyer began buying. Retail is not able to pick up 2.3 million shares. Large buyers (probably a Hedge Fund) make purchases where they see an opportunity to make a big profit. To me that is a signal that someone believes the H’s are a bargain at the $4 range. These big guys expect to at least double or triple their money so I expect some one believes the H’s are worth at least $8 to $12 and maybe a lot more. Now I am not going to tell others what to do, but I will say I bought H’s today. I don’t believe that today’s pps is any where near to what they are worth or what an owner will receive when this finally settles out. All of the above is just my opinion and is not a recommendation to do anything.
Now you are starting to make more sense. At the time you talked to her, the EC was just getting off the ground. Joyce was the main organizer of the EC and if she said "she said she has a lawyer now" she would be talking about the EC had a lawyer now. Not her personal lawyer... Big difference. What I am saying you are wrong about was the part about her working for WAMU and having inside information and the inference that she was somehow being paid off. She simply wasn't doing this for personal profit other than to protect her investment. She wasn't a WAMU employee with special secret information. When you made your allegation that she was somehow being paid off, that's what caused people who know Joyce to get upset. By the way we are friends. She lives about 40 miles away and I didn't know her before the WAMU bankruptcy. Since then we became friends as we have mutual interests in seeing this through. I know her as a very hard working honest person and I resent any attempt to make her seem otherwise.
I attended the January hearing (along with Catz and others) in which the Judge ruled that we could have the EC. If you remember way back then, there was a lot of discussion about the creation of the EC and there were preliminary talks about getting an attorney to represent the EC once it would be created. I didn't get to attend the hearing at which the EC was appointed but I certainly suspect that the attorneys that had been contacted to represent the newly created EC were present. Since Joyce was instrumental in getting the EC created, it is hardly surprising she would be acquainted with the attorneys. That hardly makes them her attorneys. It is also possible you saw her talking to them and that they said to her to keep quiet and not say anything (attorneys do that). I am not doubting that part of your story. She may have said she had information against JPM. There was certainly a lot of us that had information against JPM. They stole our bank. What I am saying is she wasn't a WAMU bigwig with hidden information. She was just a small retail investor who spoke up. She is like a bulldog and has the good organizational skills to get things done. She wasn't paid off and she did a tremendous amount of work for no pay. She doesn't deserve to have anyone question her integrity. She is really one of the few people involved in this entire case who has integrity. Enough said.
I don't see what relevance this entire conversation about Joyce is. I am not a regular poster here ( I read here and post sometimes but not a lot) but many of you know me from yahoo and ghostboard. I have no reason to doubt that Wamuvoodoo is reporting what he thinks happened. I suspect he is confusing the person he saw with Joyce. I don't know what conversation did or did not take place between Joyce and Wamuvoodoo but I can say with certainty that Joyce didn't work as a manager or bigwig in WAMU. Unlike many of you I actually know Joyce and she is a very nice and honorable lady, an army veteran, who almost single handedly saved us all by pushing for and creating the EC. She is one of the true heroes here and she did this at considerable sacrifice both for her health and for her finances as she was restrained from trading the stock the entire time she was on the EC. When we were all trading and making money, she wasn't. She received no payoffs period. Also she never had her "own lawyer" following her around. She certainly could have had an attorney who was an acquaintance at the hearing as there were a lot of people working on getting the EC created who attended the hearing. Anyway, the issue isn't Joyce. We should all be just happy we had her when we needed her. She is just a very honest person who saw a problem and was willing to go to work and do something about it.
Notice that when items go on sale at your local mall, nobody gets upset, they just go into a buying frenzy. When our P's go on sale, people start complaining. If you look at yesterday's volume, it was nearly 10 times what we have been seeing. No way was that retail selling and buying. We were not buying because most of us are out of money and only idiots would be selling while we were doing so well in the hearing. I think one of the hedge funds either had too many shares running afoul of the 5% rule or was worried they might be forced to give up any profits from their WAMPQ holdings. So they told the MM's to start selling. Today volume is still up with the MM's seemingly having unlimited shares to sell. I expect to see downward price pressure until they get rid of the shares they have to sell. The sale could be over today, or maybe not for a long time, it just depends on how many shares they are trying to get rid of. Remember, in this case the real value of the P's are dependent on the rulings by JMW and not what the MM's are quoting. If you believe we are going to get a fair settlement, the P's are a great investment. If you believe JMW is a tool in a corrupt economic system that is out to destroy equity, then you will probably lose your WAMPQ investment. As far as I can see, what is going on with the P's in the market place has nothing to do with their real value.
Have you actually seen an "incredibly insightful" post today? Other than this one of course.. :)
How about if TPS and Susman were in cahoots with that filing and Susman looked at it as insurance in case the talks breakdown. It goes to the issue of the GSA and with the TPS objection filed and on the record, Susman can then work with all the other parties on trying to get an agreement ironed out before the scheduled confirmation hearing. The next step will be to see the present POS POR withdrawn and replaced with a new POR #7 that provides for all of equity. It still is IMO unlikely to keep everybody here happy but then it will be a compromise and they rarely do.
I had to throw something in for the conspiracy nuts that walk amongst us. :) Besides, I said these were WAG's, I didn't say they were my WAG's. I am hoping for #1.
Like everyone who has an interest in the case, I have been trying to come up with a logical explanation for why we have so far seen no objections filed by the EC team. Lots of ways to speculate on this from settlement is in the works and will be announced soon to the SG team is incompetent and missed the filing deadline. The fact that several additional expected filings (Dimeq, JPM, FDIC, Black Horse, etc) also have so far failed to show up just adds more intrigue to the situation.
So here are several WAG’s as to what could be happening.
1. Settlement talks are taking place and all parties have agreed to extend all the dates, objection deadlines, confirmation dates etc while the talks continue. They haven’t formally filed for the extensions because nobody knows at this stage if the talks will be successful. This goes along with the postponements of the depositions, and why they are being postponed and not canceled outright. Pressure is on all parties to settle.
2. SG actually filed an objection but it contains information so sensitive that it can’t be seen by the public. It possibly contains information that threatens the entire economy of the US and could cause JPM to fail, bringing down the entire US economy and would lead to economic depression and the failure of the U.S. dollar. Or maybe the accusations of IT are such that they put at risk an undercover DOJ case against some leading HF guys and the DOJ won’t let the objection be released until they redact all the sensitive information.
3. SG didn’t file because he doesn’t want to give Rosen any clue as to what SG’s plans are for the confirmation hearing. SG was aware there would be very good objections filed by others and maybe even coordinated with the excellent objection filed by TPS. Also they could have had individuals file on all the relevant points and we just haven’t seen those show up yet. This strategy allows SG to not show his hand until the last minute.
4. SG has plenty in hand (maybe gleaned from the deposition of Aurelius) to defeat the POR and simply sees no need to file a formal objection. This may be part of a strategy of playing mind games with Rosen. As part of the deal to postpone the HF depositions, they may now have gained cooperation from the HF’s to the extent that they can kill the GSA so there is no need to file anything now and the real action will be in the confirmation hearing where both the GSA and the POR are killed.
5. SG simply doesn’t care what happens at confirmation and have planned all along to fight the case in the appeals courts. They plan to use what they have to fight the POR in confirmation but they plan the real battle in district court.
6. And finally, SG is just not a bankruptcy firm and they are in way over their head in this case. They are incompetent here and either missed the filing deadline, or are so overconfident that they believe they can just waltz into court win without worrying about filing objections.
I am sure there are probably more possibilities that explain why we haven’t seen anything . I am hoping it is because of my WAG number 1 but at this time I am completely in the dark as usual. Once again I am feeling very much like a mushroom.
"How do you gather this level of information?"
Nlu and I are constantly giving him advice.. :) :)
Originally I planned on abstaining on both P and H ballots. Now I am leaning towards voting NO on the P ballot without checking any boxes. Still leaning towards abstaining on the H ballot. I will wait until the last minute before voting as things could change.
I have been trying to use logic to explain what I have been seeing the last couple of days on the boards. There is a group that seems to be afraid that adding new people to the EC will somehow sabotage some plan or settlement that is being worked on. While the other group feels we must act now to push for getting a fair valuation before the court and push harder in all directions to stop the POR. They are unhappy with the present strategy or lack of strategy and are suspicious of MW.
First I think it is very good that activist shareholders pushed for the expansion of the EC back to full capacity and that we got 3 more people who we can trust to oversee what is going on. The trustee had been very remiss in her duties to oversee the EC and had allowed it to shrink below the number of members necessary for it to function as a legal body. It was only because of the prodding by activist shareholders that she made the recent appointments. I do give her credit for choosing retail shareholders when she could have added people from hedge funds. Anyway I am very happy with the EC as now configured. I am not convinced that MW was somehow out to do us in. I am disappointed he didn’t accept the help that activist shareholders offered him. I think that was foolish. But, I don’t know what kind of strategy he is pursuing and he may have felt that he didn’t want to change what he was doing. I get the impression that MW is smart and competent, but that he may not really do to well at working with others. I don’t have any personal knowledge on this but just the fact that all the other original EC members quit leads me to speculate that MW may not be the easiest person to get along with. That doesn’t mean he is a bad guy, but it could help explain why he didn’t accept help when offered.
SG is under the direct employ of the EC and it would be expected that they are not going to do anything unless directed by the EC. There has been a lot of people upset with the lack of action by SG. I suspect that SG is pursuing a strategy as approved by MW. When the new EC members come aboard, they will have the opportunity to review the strategy now being pursued and either stay the course, or perhaps add additional parallel actions.
The activist shareholders are anxious to get a true valuation of the NOL’s before the court. It is puzzling why this avenue hasn’t been pursued. So I speculate that perhaps SG has decided that there is no way to monetize the value of the NOL’s so they will benefit equity. Getting into a valuation hearing could increase the valuation of the subs but it wouldn’t get the value of the NOL’s on the table because they would only be useful to the New Company coming out of bankruptcy. The only way this would help equity is if equity would somehow be allowed to participate in the ownership of the New Company. Originally this was to be given to the HF’s and would have been a bonanza for Tepper and his buddies. Give SG credit here as that POR got shot down and the new plan now makes all the classes impaired and the plan will be to give the New Company to the SNH’s who will have first rights to take shares in lieu of cash.
When JMW made her ruling that the GSA and the POR was “Fair and Reasonable” except for the releases, I think it caught SG completely by surprise. They appealed but the horse was already out of the barn. This decision was devastating for equity as it basically gave JPM and the FDIC a free pass and confirmed Jamie Dimon as the most successful bank robber in history. By the time SG’s appeal is heard , the issue will be moot and there will be no chance to go after JPM or the FDIC for more money. This is why I think those that think MW is using an appeal in other courts strategy are wrong. SG is not looking to win this on appeals. They are looking for a way to force a settlement here.
Lucky for us we have brilliant and dedicated shareholders like Nate Thoma who are willing to speak up and be heard. He opened Pandora’s box with his insider trading allegations and SG pounced on that like a cat on a mouse. The HF’s do not want that box opened and I believe SG is using that fear by the HF’s to force them to allow us a seat at the table. I think a likely goal by SG is for them to give equity a portion of the New Company. That could happen before or during the confirmation hearings. Then everyone would agree that no insider trading took place and the NEW Company would use all the cash to leverage itself into a large acquiring company and then maximize the NOL’s and become very profitable. We as equity would share in the profits. Under this scenario, both preferreds and commons would receive shares and we would all grant releases. SG’s stick is that if the HF’s don’t cooperate, SG yells INSIDER TRADING at the confirmation hearing and gets the POR killed. The HF’s are now in danger of being investigated by the DOJ and we work at getting money over the waterfall from the imposition of the FJR and any claw back from ill gotten gains from insider trading.
It will be an interesting few weeks as we wait for the confirmation hearing. If we are in true negotiations, we might see another round of depositions postponed and maybe even the confirmation hearings postponed. All of this would be good in my opinion.
It could be done if Rosen pays the preferreds from the liquidating trust. He says he doesn't know how much they will get, screws them out of a a share of the new company but when the liquidating trust fnishes paying off the last of the claims, whatever is left over will go to the preferreds. He will then try to make that number high enough to induce people to grant releases. I don't believe this will happen but it could.
I think we will get the FJR because the Hedgies have dirty hands and this will be brought out in the depositions. Susman already knows this or he would not even bother deposing them. Also FJR's are the norm in a Chapter 7 and I believe somewhere in the umpteen million documents I read in the last 2 1/2 years, I read that the creditors can't come out worse in a Chapter 11 than they would have in a chapter 7. Without the FJR, the WAHUQ's come out worse. (whether they would have to give back their gains due to their subordinate position to the SNH's is another issue to be decided outside of bankruptcy court)
Without a revaluation of assets downward, the FJR's alone would put the preferreds in the money. It is logical that Rosen would attempt this downward valuation if for no other reason but to remain in control if he is forced into negotiations. If it were cut and dried that A > L, Then the EC would be in control and Rosen can't have that. So, the battle will be over valuation and our best hopes for a settlement will be prior to the actual confirmation hearing starting June 6. If it comes down to having all the parties actually putting all their cards down at the hearing, then we will be at the mercy of JMW. If you are an owner of commons, that is probably your best hope for a decent return as I doubt Rosen's offer of "settlment" would be much more than tweaking the figures to give preferreds something and leaving commons out in the cold. Of course there is the possibility that despite everything the EC presents, JMW could decide Rosen's figures were fair and reasonable and then we all would be looking at the appeals process for any recovery. If that happens we will be here for years. Rosen is a snake and anything he is doing now,and any parties he is adding to his team, are all part of his attempt to screw us. I am hoping some one is busy preparing objections to be filed to fight this attempt to add a new evaluation specialist.