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Recurring dividend payments coupled with continued buybacks would make this stock pop.
$3.64 is the floor that Liberty established in the buyback agreement.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/908937/000119312513396011/d611366d8k.htm
I posted that I hoped they were buying back shares at the lower levels based on what the latest 10Q and 8K stated at the time of my post, but this recent 8K and the article from Crunching Numbers would state otherwise.
Seems like someone overlooked this contract provision when negotiating the secured revolving credit facility with JPMorgan Chase Bank.
Soup samich'!
I will be tuning in to tomorrow's 8am earnings call... seems like there was more drum beating from Mel leading into quarterly releases than from Malone's camp. The silence from the current management has been frustrating.
We are off to a good start today... up 3%.
Volatility index jumps 17% as Nasdaq gets hit
The CBOE Volatility Index VIX+14.98% surged Thursday as stocks sold off across the board and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP-3.10% was looking at its worst day since late 2011. Heading into the close, the VIX was up 17% at 16.17, its largest one-day percentage jump since January 24. The Nasdaq was down 3% and was looking at its worst percentage decline since November 2011.
Agreed... looks like the NASDAQ has dropped further (down 3% at this point) but Sirius has leveled off and actually come up a bit (down 1.5%).
They way i look at it is like this... as much as i cringe when i see Sirius drop, imagine what Liberty's holdings look like at 50% ownership.
The only way i see the bottom dropping out of this stock is if the company itself jumps off track. Hopefully the earnings release/call reflects the fact that Sirius was buying back at these levels and we have decent earnings.
Here is another article... NASDAQ experiencing a rare three digit decline...
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/04/10/stock-market-live-blog-s-ally-debuts/
I would say today is primarily due to the markets getting slammed... I just noticed a note on Market Watch that the "Nasdaq Composite on track for biggest one-day percentage loss since June 2012."
NASDAQ is down 2.66%... Sirius down 2.23%.
It was holding strong there for a while... finally gave way to the market pressure i guess.
I agree... I don't like how the price is hugging the lower channel line. After the last couple of days, I was looking for the price to level out. Sirius is oversold.
I am dissapointed to see how Sirius/Liberty has managed this stock. The fact that we are basically $0.10 away from our 52 week low is rediculous.
This quarter needs to reset the clock... highlight buybacks increased over the quarter, fundamentals are still strong and analysts confirm their estimates.
Looks like we might be building support at this level... I guess we will see what tomorrow brings. It looks oversold at this point.
We need a decent earnings release to give the market a vote of confidence. Sirius' silence after the cancelation of the Liberty stock exchange has been deafening. It also allows for too much negative fodder.
That and, in my opinion, the platform Sirius delivers their content... SATs.
I have three radios... two cars and our boat. The area we use our boat does not have good/any connectivity on the water, so apple Pandora would not work. All of the marinas we visit are using Sirius radio, and I am noticing more and more boats having the radio as an option as well. Sirius works great on the open water... apple does not.
I am not an apple guy to begin with, so I guess that is why I don't understand all the hype about how apple will bring Sirius to its knees... other than it provides fodder for people to publish articles. I would also say the apple diehards obviously don't appreciate what Sirius is and has to offer.
I honestly don't see why the two can't coexist. Just as there are diehard apple supporters... I can't see myself using anything other than Sirius.
I love the product and how my gamble at $.25 and purchases over the years are paying off.
If people are looking for the quick pop... I would say you missed it. I think the current low is a great entry level and that their will be great trading opportunities on the way up.
I am looking forward to Sirius getting back to business and hope Liberty leaves them alone for a while. Based on the recent upgrades, it sounds like the analysts are too.
I am looking forward to this quarters release and hope we get support for heading north.
Ok.. thanks for your words of endearment.
My understanding is the same as GV... of the total dollar amount authorized for buybacks, 520M shares had been purchased as of Q4 2013.
8K
“During the fourth quarter, we completed the first $160 million of the $500 million of share repurchases from Liberty Media, bringing our total 2013 share repurchases to 520 million shares for $1.76 billion, leaving over $2.2 billion remaining under our current authorization,” said David Frear, Chief Financial Officer, SiriusXM.
Q4 earnings release
8K
"The Shares will be purchased in three installments, of which $130 million will be repurchased in November 2013, $270 million will be repurchased in January 2014 and $100 million will be repurchased in April 2014."
My understanding is that of the total amount authorized for buybacks, $500M is set aside for Liberty but the remaining amount can be used to purchase shares on the open market.
I could not find anything that said Sirius cannot purchase shares in the open market. Cheaper to buy at current rates than the floor set in the Liberty agreement of $3.64.
Now it makes sense why we are dropping... NPR and Apple boys and girls. The jokers who write this crap should be fired.
NPR on Apple iTunes
I agree…
After reading, in my opinion, some of the better articles that are out there, I have been wrestling with coming up with my strategy…
1. Let the current speculation that a higher offer will be presented drive up the price and sell into the hype… and then move on.
2. Sell into the hype, buy LMC-A before the “C” dividend is declared, so I will be on record as a LMC-A holder and will also get “C”series stock.
3. Hold on and convert into LMC-C and hope Liberty Media continues to let the company grow as currently envisioned.
After seeing the trend over the last couple of days, I am leaning more towards 1… sell and move on. I hope I don’t have to regret not doing so already. This article helped put things in perspective for me.
Seeking Alpha, How Much Should Liberty Offer For Sirius XM?
From this perspective, $5, $6, or higher might be a pipedream. Unless, we convert over at around $4, Liberty doesn’t suck the company dry (balance sheet), and we continue to grow as a subsidiary of Liberty versus a stand-alone company.
I have been on this rollercoaster since the crash and enjoy being a subscriber. This is the first time that I have actually contemplated selling my shares and moving on. I was really getting pumped to hear speculation of global expansion, other products, etc…. very disappointing.
Has anyone come up with their strategy… has anyone identified another strategy? GLTA
Sorry if this scenario has been tossed around for comments… a lot of chatter on this board since after hours on Friday. I can’t keep up. I too have struggled to see the benefits in owning LMCC shares (i.e. – no voting rights, used as a cash cow by LM, etc).
The following scenario was thrown out in the attached article (paraphrasing good article)… If it can be timed right, sell SIRI and buy LMCA before declaration date for the 2:1 LMCC stock dividend to LMCA/B shareholders.
seeking alpha, Vote NO On Liberty's $3.68-Offer
I also think this might be a good strategy… maintain voting rights and still have a play on LMCC via the 2:1 stock dividend.
Any thoughts…
I want to accumulate a few more shares... but not sure if this thing is going to bounce off of or drive right through the 50 day average.
I am going to sit on the sidelines to see if it drops further tomorrow.
Maybe this? I saw it this morning, but haven't seen anything more about it throughout the day.
seeking alpha
Sirius XM Radio sued by music heavyweights • 6:59 AM
•Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) faces a lawsuit from Sony, Universal, and ABKCO alleging the company used recordings from before 1972 without permission.
•The issue revolves around a federal copyright protection law that only went into effect in 1972.
•If Sirius were to lose the lawsuit, it opens the door for more of the same variety.
I was a holder ever since the $3 water mark in 2010... averaged down and sold off to take some profits during this last run.
I agree, fundamentals still look strong... and i am looking to take on another long position.
Any ideas of where we might bounce back? Volume looks pretty light over the last few days and wonder if this will continue until we get closer to June's financials release and drum up more interest in the stock.
Looks like we are flirting with the 50 day. If we dip under the 50 day, then i might buy back in and wait to see if we hit the trend line of around $1.60 and buy a little more.
And then if we can get north of $3.22 and keep going, then that would be sweeter than yoo-hoo.
You should try shorting the stock...
I think patience is the key right now. Looks like we Longs are in a middle of the perfect storm - buybacks on the horizon, shorts being pressured to cover, great fundamentals and the John Malone unknown (good things from my view)!
I personally feel we are on the right side of the equation... who knows when this puppy will pop, but when it does it should be a great time for Longs... in my opinion anyway.
I hope all is well... I am thinking about adding here. I have not found anything in the news that would lead me to believe this is oversold other than due to Cyprus/Euro concerns.
We'll have a new quarterly release in the next couple of months, so I am hoping for a vote of confidence and that we inch further north.
Are there any other views out there?
Any idea on the pop? I can't find anything in the news.. i haven't read anything from the 25th Annual Roth OC Growth Conference, so maybe there is something that was disclosed during the conference.
I like the run!
HAHAHAHAHAHA... needed that.
$1.75!
$1.65 post market... GAME TIME!
It appears to me everything is in motion... I am just sitting back and waiting. I think it is about to get exciting!
Q4 results, and statement that buyback will begin
More Global Speculation
Good things!!! I have been sitting on this puppy since the days of $3... I hope we see those days again very soon.
I am happy to see us back over the 200 day and 20/50 trending up. Now that I am in the green, i am curious to see people's thoughts on where we go from here.
I am looking to potentially day trade a potion of my position. The stock looks overbought at this point (RSI is above 70)... do we breakout here or do we see another run up and then pullback?
I am a little hesitant to do anything before the earnings call, but may look to get out shortly after and wait for a potential dip to buy back in.
GLTYA
Maybe in the short term, but I think there are too many long term positives to turn away now.
Seeking Alpha article: Sirius new win/win for bulls?
We should all remember this when these donkeys are up for reelection. If they don't get off their arses, we should throw them out on their arses.
Very frustrating to see a lack of progress. I guess it is par for the course for government work.
If this level of indecision was common place in the corporate world, companies would go bankrupt.
Sorry for venting... it looks like SIRI is weathering well in the current environment. I am just looking for opportunities to buy.
I was thinking the same thing... especially if we can't push this donkey over $1 in the next 25 days. 30 days under $1 and NASDAQ will hand us a deficiency samich, which will only add downward pressure.
Holiday sales and a favorable Q4 earnings can't come soon enough.
Hopefully this is the low point just before it rebounds. Volume seems to be picking up at this price level. It also came close to hitting the 50 day ($2.65) with a low of $2.67. RSI is at around 44 as of this post.
Plus, I am starting to see an increase in dooms day like articles (i.e.- Sirius XM - Managing Subscriber Growth, seeking alpha article from this morning. I hope we hear something about merger, buybacks, dividends soon to keep this puppy on track.
Search for Sirius CEO to Take Months .
By JOHN JANNARONE (WSJ Article)
The search for a chief executive officer to replace Mel Karmazin at Sirius XM Radio Inc. SIRI -0.71%could extend well into next year, Liberty Media CEO Greg Maffei said Tuesday.
"We are both looking at internal and external candidates," Mr. Maffei said on a conference call following Liberty's third-quarter results announcement. "It's unlikely to be a one-month process. I would hope it would be six [months] or less."
Liberty, the media-investment company controlled by mogul John Malone, owns slightly less than 50% of Sirius shares. Mr. Maffei is a director of Sirius and head of the search committee.
Mr. Karmazin announced his resignation as CEO of the satellite-radio operator two weeks ago and plans to depart on Feb. 1.
Liberty has applied for permission from the Federal Communications Commission to take control of the satellite radio broadcaster.
Mr. Maffei said on Tuesday's conference call that only one petition to deny Liberty's application has been filed thus far. The period in which people could file objections has ended although the full comment period won't close until Nov. 20. The FCC may take another several weeks after that to reach a decision.
Liberty has made clear it wants Sirius to return cash to shareholders, with most observers expecting a buyback. On the call, Mr. Maffei said a dividend is also "on the table."
One possible explanation... article
Apparently, the Q3 earnings are going to be "blah" and Q4 is expected to better. I guess we will see tomorrow.
I assume the dip around 3 was due to Apple Internet Radio? Pandora is down 14%.
apple internet radio article
Looks that way... see if it holds. RSI is just above 30 at 33.