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ENTA-valuation model
Dew, GILD`s figures for hcv-treatment:
USA:58000
EU5:49000
JP:37000
I would split between US and EU5: 55%-45%
Have sapphire no implication for your market share of 38% ?
Katsche
Enta-Dew, i refer to the ribavirin arms. I know, sapphire was not rib-free.
My argument is: When i take 450+267 (pearl 1) then i get 95% (naive) 90% (treated).
When i take 450+267+333 the SVR12 minimum must be the svr12 that we seen in pearl 1.
The maximum in the 450+267+333 regime without rib would be the svr12 that we seen in the regime with rib (sapphire 1/2).
Greetings Katsche
P.s. Sorry for my bad english.
ENTA- Pearl II/III
From Pearl I (450+267) we know that the SVR12 for GT1b naive is 95%.
From Sapphire I (450+267+333+Rib) we know that the SVR12 for GT1b naive is 98%.
Therefore the SVR12 for GT1b naive for Pearl III (450+267+333) must be between 95-98%.
The figures for GT1b treatment (Pearl II) must be between 90% and 97%.
Are this thinking too simple?
Katsche
GILD- then we have to wait. Interesting that in may 2013 GILD released for the first two arms svr8 and for the other 3 arms svr4. Today GILD released for the first two arms svr12 and no data for the other 3 arms (include treatment-experienced) . For this arms there are only svr4 public.
Katsche
Gild- Dew, thanks, but in the text from dewophile is the notice, that the SVR12 are pending.
Katsche
GILD - I have been wondering why GILD has not released the 12 SVR from Lonestar. The SVR 4 and 8 were released back in May. Anybody knows? Thanks
Katsche
Jbog Thanks. I get two different result, when I use the 13F Filer search and the stock ticker search on the webpage of whalewisdom.com. When you use the 13F Filer search, you get for Oppenheimer and Wellington the massage in the last column "sold out". Obviously an error. Thank you for correction.
Katsche
MNTA: Obviously Oppenheimer and Wellington sold out.
Can anybody confirm ?
Katsche
Share would be near 60% if the destocking effect is added. If we assume, that from Q1 to Q2 there was no growth in the lovenox market then the destocking was near 50 Mio. (effektive sales Q1: 557 Mio). The run rate for m-enox is then 1,3 B.
Katsche
Thanks Rocky3, i know that the retail share of the overall market is 40%. I asked for the retail share of the menox-sales, because you wrote it is so small. I think the share is 2/3, also not so little.
Katsche
Hi Rocky3,
your script # Q1: 457 T. Q2: 677 T. Increase: + 50 %.
Do you believe, that this big jump is offset by the destocking?
Thanks
Katsche
Correction: T-Enox Revenue
Thanks investorgold, my mistake. I mean T-enox Revenue not Mnta-Revenue. MNTA-Revenue will be 94 Mio.
Katsche
MNTA:Q2 Revenue
Thanks for sharing the script #. Obviously, the lov. market has reached the equilibrium. We can now make a revenue prognosis. Assumption: Retail share 40%, GPO 60%. Mnta share for retail 85% and for GPO 33%.
Q2 Revenue
------ MNTA SNY SUM
Retail 188 34 222
GPO 113 232 345
SUM 301 266 567
Katsche
Hi Dew,
as far as i remember, in the former Q-PRs from TEVA there were also nothing on t-enox.
Katsche
Dew, thanks for sharing the information and your hard work for this board.
This explains the difference (22 M) between the forecast of my little model (225 M) and the NVS-Number. If i recall correct, than you expected several weeks ago a run rate of 900 M. If you look at the increase of the script # for M-enox of 40 % from Jan to March and assume, that the two new GPO-Contracts (the one has, as reported from sodrock, a volume of 120 M p. year) increase the M-enox revenue from the GPOs of 30 %, than there will be a (weightened) increase of 33 % for the run rate to 1,2 B. Meanwhile the overall weekly script # increase from 56000 (jan) to 61000 (apr), so that i think, we reached 1,3 B.
But, if 1 B or 1,3 B run rate, this is not relevant. Important is from my point of view, that the business modell from MNTA will be proved. Today it is not. The negative from the TEVA-overhang is not, that the future revenue from M-enox will be sink drastically. The problem is, that a T-enox can fail MNTAs business model.
This based, as i understand, of two assumptions:
1. There is, besides the technicals, also a economic difference between biosimilars and interchangeables. Doctors hesitate to prescripe generic biologicals, which are not declared as interchangeable (look at europe). Biosimilars will not be a economic sucess.
2. The FDA differ between biosimilars and interchangeables and (important) set a very high bar for interchangeables.
If now a little firm from italy with little investment costs and little know how can reach the status of interchangeability for large scale molecules as lovenox, then MNTA abilities has no great economic value not only for lovenox, but also for the FOB area. This explains the actual share price.
Therefore, also the FOB laws from the FDA are very important for MNTA. I hope the law is so, that it is focus of the intercangeability and set a high bar. Then MNTA has with its abilities a unique selling proposition
Excuse my bad english and the long text.
Happy eastern
Katsche
i think the acual run rate is 1,3 B. The 247 M in Q1 can split in 70 M for Jan and Feb and 110 M in March (script # jumps from 35000 (average) in Feb to 48000 in march and the new major GPO)
katsche
This imply, that COGS ist 40 %.
Hello board,
an announcement from TEVA would imply, that the technology is inferior to MNTA's technology. When TEVA declare, that it is not able to gain the approval for a polysaccharide, how will TEVA receive an approval for a more complex protein and how will TEVA explain the financial community, that it is the leading player in the FOB arena ?
ps:Thanks to DEW and many other posters for the work. "Read me first" is great.
Katsche