IMO it is all speculations that the PEA is going to show positive results.

Simply,

I think a lot of us got caught "sipping the cool-aid" as they say on this one. The management team on paper with the potential for large resource recovery made it a very intriguing risk/reward relationship. FWIW, RW was referring to the technical level of the wells saying they were low risk to drill (very shallow) and potential high rewared...not the company itself.Regardless, the fact remains that they have pretty much failed on every operational deadline that they established earlier this year. I don't get mad at myself for investing in this company because at the time we had a lot going for it. But this is the major risk for one of these juniors is the capital requirements and we flat out missed it like so many other juniors do. My only hope (and it is a small one at that) is that we can get a farm in but more importantly that the mgmt was smart enough to lay some solid ground work on Farm in agreements in early/late June which would explain why no insiders have purchased or sold any shares since then...but that could be the cool-aid talking...I have sipped a little to much on this one. I should have seen the writing on the wall in August when there was no news on drilling and Rafuse stepped down from chief geologist role, but I didn't properly factor in the cash burn rate, I still believed in mgmt that we had enough cash for the drilling program. Bottom line is that it was a great opportunity but like so many others, they just couldn't get it done with what they had...hate to sound so pessimistic but I feel optimism in this case lies somewhere between delusion and helplessness. As in the past, I would normally fall back on mgmt and say they have a plan for this....not the case anymore, the risk/reward relationsihp no longer makes sense, its a gamble at this point...if I weren't so under water I would have sold weeks ago...

While I hear you on the frustration part, I remain of the opinion that SNV lies somewhere in between both of your posts. MHT brings up some good points but the I disagree that we are funded well enough to drill. (we had 7 m as of jun 30th probably down to 4-5 million now with estimates of 10 m to drill). I do think that there is still some serious potential here but I am less optimistic based on this last years events. I will say that I also disagree with garbage when you say that they have nothing to show for the 15 m we got in PP. Bottom line is that O&G is an extremely capital intensive industry regardless of where it is, but the fact that SNV is in Iraq only makes it more expensive. These things costs money and lots of it. Especially when you consider all of the factors that go into it. I am not sure how it works in Iraq right now but I imagine there are plenty of holes to jump through and lots of fees and regulations. They have gotten a lot done since then, most importantly in getting an updated resource report. Given that, it does not change the fact that they have literally missed on every single operational deadline. I am still a holder at this point but it is 25% delusion, 25% I just can't force myself to click the sell button down here, and 50% I think they can still get a Farm in...at this point it is a waiting game and I feel lower prices are to come. While my investment never started this way, I guess I am prepared to go down with the ship at this point...

I agree, mgmt has let me down in terms of the ability to execute pure and simple. Not have they been late in almost everything they have set out, they have also mis-judged their resources (most importantly their cash resource) which is a huge let down to me. I agree with BWLD on Rafuse cutting back, that perhaps in unison with the lack of insider purchasing for the last three months have been the biggest negatives for me. I imagine the contracts haven't been finalized because what drilling company is going to finalize the deal with a company that has no money to pay them. At this point a farm in is our only option (a PP down here would kill the stock. The company definitely is in no position to bargin however the flip side to that argument is that at these prices SNV doesn't have to offer much to make mucho profits for whoever comes in...we all know if they are able to drill, the $$ will flow. For a company looking to gain access to the Iraqi area, SNV with their resource base and current mkt cap to me seems like a great opp and that perhaps is their biggest bargaining chip. JMO

Dale just confirmed that it is 7%. RW just mis-spoke during the presentation....it happens.

I think you make a great point regarding possible negotiations that might be preventing the insiders from buying. Within the first 2 minutes of the presentation you hear RW mention market cap several times as one of attractions here. This is essentially him saying that he thinks the stock is extremely cheap down at these levels which makes me think he would be buying if he could. Having said that, at this point it is just pure speculation. I have to agree with BWLD in that a lot of the events that have occurred over the past month or two have been very negative, especially the demotion of Rafuse which the company never addressed openly. I wish somebody at the conference would have inquired about this. I like the both of you remain a long but never have I been so nervous holding this stock which I have done so for the better part of two years. The cash situation is definitely dire, but I think the opportunity for a farm in to happen especially when you consider the limited number of companies operating there and the shear size of the license. Just some random thoughts in these dark times....

Thanks for the info on the new slides I was waiting for that to get cleaned up. First off, it is 7% not 17%...huge difference, the fact that they have not purchased any shares since June after purchasing shares nearly every month for the past year is also a little concerning. I am of the opinion that a PP would effect us. They would need to issue at least another 100M shares to get enough to carry them into drilling. Our last PP was a total of 80 M shares that were issued at roughly the beginning of the year. You can pull up a chart and see what has happened since then. If we were to PP I would expect the sp to fall in the mid single digits..not the end of the world and positive drilling should help us recover, but still..definitely not the way to go which fortunately management agrees.

A better question to ask is where is the cash? Without that the contacts don't mean anything, and it is my guess is that is what is holding the process up. Bottom line is we have three options:

1. Get a farm-in quickly because the cash burn rate isn't slowing down

2. Do another PP (which would require more than the 80M float increase that happened awhile back)

3. Failure

I know myself and others have called or contacted Dale several times over the past week or two...He has confirmed that they are very close to finalizing drilling contracts...still no PR. The further this thing gets dragged out the further my confidence falls. My gut says Monday morning we will have our PR. I will be disappointed if we get a MD&A and still no drilling contract PR

I meant Q4 not Q3

Haven't given up just worried. End of September is completely out of the question in my opinion. I believe it will be more like Q3, a few month delay will not be enough for me to sell, but if something larger is in question (license or something of that nature) then the game changes for me.

If it were just insider buying I wouldn't think much of it. But that coupled with the two month delay in very important operational procedures does worry me. I don't think you can discount the fact that this was a huge operational test for the company/mgmt and they failed. I am not trying to be too doom and gloom but my only hope is that this is just taking longer due to smaller tedious issues rather than something larger with the license or something like that.

It usually is a few days or weeks...not several months ...but hey I hope you are right

I think for me, it is extremely hard to envision a early Fall drilling date. When I last spoke with IR, they said that they estimated it would take 60 days after finalizing contracts to commence drilling, which pretty much puts September out of the picture. I will note that the 60 day estimate itself could be a bit ambitious as we have seen how aggressive they have made their timelines and the result of that. Having said that, I don't expect a 2-3 month delay will have much of an effect in the scheme of things as long as there is not something bigger that is in question here. MHT, I wanted to hear you thoughts on the lack on insider purchasing. For the last year or so we have seen pretty consistent monthly insider purchases until the month of July and now August. I may be acting a bit superstitious but the last month I believe that there were no insider purchases was Feb 2011-the same time that they were expecting to release JV results in Albania. We all know how that story went. I think it would show a lot of confidence to shareholders here if we were to see some insiders start buying again as we are currently flying in the dark regarding drilling. What are your thoughts on this issue?

Thank you for the response, I share you concern regarding the civil aspect of the contracts. I have no idea how long that process would take, however I am hoping that the major highway that runs pretty much right through the SAD province will make this less of a hassle. It is also comforting to know that Sir Bin Jarallah certainly has the resources and know-how for the roads and other civil infrastructure issues, whether or not this is completed on time is a whole other issue.

MHT, how concerned are you that we are still waiting on the drilling contracts? I realized this is not a huge concern (yet), but it does make me a little uneasy that they will be able to deliver on time and commence drilling in late September. Do you think this delay will have any effect on the timing of the drilling?

MHT??? Are you still out there? If so, what's your thoughts on the latest sp drop. One would have expected this given the situation, but my question is where do we go from here? How far does this drop? There is a good portion of investors who were sitting on a pretty large gain that are now underwater. I was sad to see the volume finally come in today....this has me worried. The combination of high volume on the downside and literally no bid support ....I really don't know how far this falls. If you don't answer, than mostly likely you have sold and moved on from this board...if thats the case, good for you (at least in the short term) if not, I'd like to hear your thoughts now that we approaching a 40 m mkt cap

Yeah unfortunately, we are at the mercy of the markets right now...I will say that the 30% decline has been on less than significant volume which tells me that a good portion of the decline is not people dumping shares but a small gradual decline, i.e. there has been no support. I am okay with this because it is what I expected, hard to jump in with big money right now when you know there are shares coming into play over the next few weeks. With lack of bid support, it is quite possible that we see some lower .20's to even high teens but so far there has been some vol coming in at .24. I also wouldn't be surprised if we see some more insiders picking up shares...the last time they bought at .25 so I gotta think that they might be prowling around down here.

Regarding news,I think at this point, I am going to take a pessimistic outlook and say that they won't be able to get any news out in the immediate future. This is only because I know these things take time and if I am wrong, then it's a good thing. Interesting that the presentation they are doing is being put on by First Energy, the same people who picked up a significant portion of the PP coming due over the next week or so. Coincidence??? Also, I noticed BNK will be there to, nice time to start hammering out a JV in Albania Richard. Anyways, my thesis is that yes we could see some teens here over the next week or so but anything below .20 I am sure will be met with some significant buying, afterall I think these prices down here represent a fine buying opportunity. JMO

Good post lots of good inferences from the MD&A. In regards to BNK, don't they produce and sell oil in Albania already? So under the new law don't they already have to be a licensed refinery, even thought they are a Canadian company?

Anybody get a chance to read the MD&A yet? My take from it was this.

I really liked how mgmt went into more detail regarding the issues/problems/solutions/timeline facing their various JV's . In my opinion, mgmt has noticed a lot of frustration on these fronts and did a great job of addressing them to us shareholders. Another point on the scoreboard for this mgmt team in my book.

Albania JV is a long time away friends....a lot of issues to work out there both polically and legally.....also I think the JV with the Albanian company is not exactly turning out to be a match made in heaven. I was extrememly interested by this comment made within the MD&A:

"The joint venture believes that it could still achieve success by entering into a processing arrangement with an Albanian oil producer whereby the joint venture simply processes the producer’s oil for a fee. Producers are not subject to the excise tax on imported solvent/diluents and would be able to sell the oil products internationally or to local refineries. "

BNK anyone????

IMO, it all comes down to debt financing. Iraq oil production is still the make or break for this company....without financing they cannot explore, test, produce,etc...anything. I think another share offering would be disasterous.

All and all, I think mgmt are doing an excellent job and they have my full suppport. Good luck and hopefully we get some good news soon.

Comments appreciated

MD&A OUT on SEDAR

Good find...interesting article

by hit the market I mean that they have become unrestricted

Around 20 million shares have hit the market so far, its held its ground. Hopefully the support continues as it dances around the 200 day. When the smoke clears, there could be some big time share holders of SNV and .28-.30 could be a nice bottom

Held up relatively well today...next few weeks will be a battle

You too (on the good weekend part), glad to be at least giving this board some action...been dead and I always enjoy discussions where each person makes good points and attacks the arguments and not individuals. I think we both helped each other validate both the risks involved here and also the potential as well--An extremely important exercise that investors must constantly re-evaluate.

I hear you on the frustration part.

Regarding Albania, I think you agreed with my point right here:

"Mind you, I don't think this means their technology has failed, because there could have been a number of problems. "

that was all I was saying. it is speculation at this point to believe one way or another. I was just pointing out that in your first post you said that the technology has failed, and I was just pointing out that it has not failed yet or been proven. They have dropped it from all the press releases as of late simply because there is nothing to report. That is different than dropping it because it doesn't work. The recent stockhouse article with the cheif engineer commenting on Albania is proof that they are still working on this venture....whether it works or not is still an unknown.

Regarding the financing, maybe I mispoke a little by indicating it was certain. It is not. However, I think that there is a much greater chance of that happening than not. They have the UAE diplomat to help with this. Also, the latest update clearly indicated that they have been working with the province of Shal a din (not sure I got that spelled correctly but you know what I mean).

You make a great point on the new shares hitting the market. However, and maybe this is just me, if there is little impact on the sp after they hit, at least it tells me there is somebody out there with a truck load of shares and and not willing to sell them at current market prices. That is not much because we never know when they will but it is something.

Regarding the management. If you look at the last year they have shown us quite a bit. Recently, I agree they have been struggling a bit to get things rolling, but I know ventures like this take time and that they are working as fast as they can. Just look at all the insider purchases over the last six months. They have a lot at stake, so I can be almost positive that they are working as hard and fast as they can.

I remain mildly frustrated as well...I have missed a lot of other money runners sitting my cash in SNV, but I think it will payout. I don't blame you at all for your feelings. In the end, it is a lot of promises.

Simply,

I think you make a lot of great points and outline the risks involved with this company...which are definitely significant. HOWEVER,

I think your wrong in several places (JMO)

First, we don't know that Albania is a failure. Period. We know it is taking longer than expected and has run in to some difficulites getting up and running. That's it. Anything else is just speculation and rumors.

Secondly, you ask if the debt financing is coming? I think it is very apparent that management is working hard to secure this. They know the stakes here. You pose that question like it is a 50/50 chance of happening...I don't think that its like that at all. IMO, its a question of when? Ideally it would be nice to have something cusion the impact of the additional shares, but having said that, we do not know if the impact of the unresistricted shares is even going to have an effect on sp. Whoever snatched up the pp could be a long term holder just like the rest of us....we just don't know.

You list several times that we are just a company that has nothing but an unproven technology and a contract in Iraq, but you miss the part where we have a proven and experienced management team, several other JV's that have been moved to the backburner, as well as some exteremely significant contacts within the middle east. I don't think that can be understated...especially when looking at the geopolitcal risks that you outlined. Though not midigated, I think those facts provide a little more security for me.

Bottom line, there is a difference between a higher risk/reward investment and a roulette table. Granted we need some things to go our way- and some of that involves a little luck - but I think that is far different than throwing money on red or black.

I'd say that was a good week.

The next could be even better!

possibility? Of course there is! just look at this momentum and volume coming into this stock. I remember when I first bought into this stock it had a daily volume of 10K...now were easily breaking a million as of late. Any selling will be met with strong hands willing to pick up shares at these levels...I bought at .10 too and I am still willing to buy it here (just look at my post from earlier bought a nice chunk at $.33)

JMHO

Where is everyone????

We are having a breakout day on nice volume

Crashing through new highs!

This is what I thought it was going to do yesterday

Just bought some more .33

I agree...doubled down at .1 bought initially at .15, bought more at .17, .21 and .23 so I have been all over the ranch but never has my confidence in this stock dwindled...even when I watched it fall from .15 to .10 after my initial purchase. My problem was that I didn't have enough money to throw at it at the time. If I did...I probably would have.

no consideration needed...add away this stock did not bounce enough off this news and with this amount of volume hitting the shares...we felt this same selling pressure at .23-.24 when we could bounce above that....we are seeing that at .34 now. Once those sellers are done (which I think will be very soon considering the volume today) we gap up again.

JMHO

lol nice discipline ...anything below .40 is an easy double by years end IMHO.


Good luck !

way to slap that ask...

I would if I could...but I am already all in

This morning would have been a nice little trade. I was up at market open when the news hit...stock was still at .29 for at least 10 minutes...I really really really wanted to buy...oh well good day for SNV longs...more to come I am confident of that

you should hit the ask!

It is my opinion that this mgmt team know what they are doing when it comes to these dilution issues. If anything the stock could retrace a bit once the warrants are exercised but it will not hurt the upward momentum of this stock and its run towards a $1 IMHO. I remember reading somewhere that there were some warrants and/or options that were exercised in the .10-.17 range in the past year...we have seen that those have to really affected the share price negatively in anyway. I have never really had personal experience with warrants pertaining to such a small company as SNV but I guess I am going to find out soon.

New additions to mgmt:


http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sonoro-adds-development-and-operations-team-103522139.html


A lot of guys from Shell


This is good news

JUST FYI...

for anyone that does not know already (which could be nobody), there is another message board for SNV that gets a little more traffic in terms of posts on stockhouse.com. I switch between both boards but it is nice to be able to find some new posts since there is not a lot of people on either board.