Tuesday, October 18, 2011 1:18:41 PM
I think a lot of us got caught "sipping the cool-aid" as they say on this one. The management team on paper with the potential for large resource recovery made it a very intriguing risk/reward relationship. FWIW, RW was referring to the technical level of the wells saying they were low risk to drill (very shallow) and potential high rewared...not the company itself.Regardless, the fact remains that they have pretty much failed on every operational deadline that they established earlier this year. I don't get mad at myself for investing in this company because at the time we had a lot going for it. But this is the major risk for one of these juniors is the capital requirements and we flat out missed it like so many other juniors do. My only hope (and it is a small one at that) is that we can get a farm in but more importantly that the mgmt was smart enough to lay some solid ground work on Farm in agreements in early/late June which would explain why no insiders have purchased or sold any shares since then...but that could be the cool-aid talking...I have sipped a little to much on this one. I should have seen the writing on the wall in August when there was no news on drilling and Rafuse stepped down from chief geologist role, but I didn't properly factor in the cash burn rate, I still believed in mgmt that we had enough cash for the drilling program. Bottom line is that it was a great opportunity but like so many others, they just couldn't get it done with what they had...hate to sound so pessimistic but I feel optimism in this case lies somewhere between delusion and helplessness. As in the past, I would normally fall back on mgmt and say they have a plan for this....not the case anymore, the risk/reward relationsihp no longer makes sense, its a gamble at this point...if I weren't so under water I would have sold weeks ago...
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