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Does anyone know the terms of the PAVMZ warrants? The 10K is very confusing (or perhaps I'm just not that bright).
Jess, I don't know that I'd say I have an issue with Cramer's personality. My issue is that he just isn't that good (and it's arguable that neither am I) but he's held up as being some kind of stock wizard.
The attached link demonstrates his abilities.
https://www.benzinga.com/media/cnbc/16/05/7986315/jim-cramer-vs-s-p-500-who-wins
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“That’s because the money the companies raised was used to pay down expensive debt or to refinance it with cheaper debt that carried a lower interest rate,” Cramer added.
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This makes no sense. Just like most of what comes out of Cramer.
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So sorry to hear this. RIP Hotrodder1
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The article makes the assumption that we can trust anything we hear from China. Personally, I would take every piece of info from them with a huge grain of salt.
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Maciste, consider it done by me.
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Praying for you, cervelo.
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IMO they are negligent to refrain from issuing a press release. Even if there is absolutely no news, they should say so with this market action of the past few days.
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Every black cloud has a silver lining. Today's losses will come in handy at tax time.
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nsomniyak, that's what I did. At this point you should get $1.25 for Dec 10's and you should pick up Nov 10's for $.25.
That's a five for one. If they're covered calls that you are writing, the worst you can do is lose them at $10 (excluding opportunity for higher). If by chance good news comes earlier than Nov 15th, you're in the chips in a big way.
The market is disagreeing with me, but I'm going to ride it out.
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Thanks Luna. I understand, but it seems like the downside is manageable as long as I don't let the Dec calls go short without a hedge. In other words, plan to undo everything before the Nov calls expire.
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I'm hoping someone is up for an options question. It seems to me that there is a bit of mis pricing that seems like an opportunity.
The CALLS (current pricing)
AUPH $10 Nov '19 Bid .20 / Ask .40
AUPH $10 Dec '19 Bid $1.05 / Ask $1.30
If you purchase a Nov around the mid point, $0.30 and sell a Dec at around the mid point, $1.15 you would be credited about $0.85 per share.
You could purchase almost 3 Nov calls for every Dec sale.
The downside seems manageable while the upside seems pretty attractive.
Please shoot my idea down if I'm missing something.
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Personally, if I thought Clay had any real influence that was consistent, I'd be ecstatic. It would be a chance to make some excellent returns while Clay unwittingly made me money.
It's foolish to think he has an agenda or is any real influence on the stock price. As I understand his methods, they seem to be about day trading (just as many shares bought and sold in a single day). No chance of impacting the following day.
We should spend our time looking for hints at the prospects of AUPH.
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PS. I spoke (texted) with 2da yesterday. He seems to be doing very well.
I'd be happy to be wrong. And it wouldn't be the first time.
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Jess, there's nothing wrong with Luna's reply. My understanding is that currently Restasis is #1 in DES. Considering that VOS appears to be substantially better, when approved it will likely become #1 and relegate Restasis to the #2 position.
I also believe that just because there are other treatments for DES (or any condition for that matter) doesn't mean that the combination of the #1 and #2 treatments wouldn't constitute a monopoly. For example, (because I don't know the actual numbers) if the #1 and #2 treatments for any condition result in 70 or 80 percent of the market, then I believe the combination of those treatments would be considered a monopoly. It might not fit the dictionary definition, but I believe it would be enough to prevent the combination.
Just an opinion, but more importantly, you shouldn't jump on an opinion that differs from your as necessarily being that of a short. You may do better by considering not only those who cheerlead your opinion, but also those that may differ.
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Jess, I'm not skeptical about AUPH, just about this potential transaction. Rather than putting me in a certain category (in which I don't belong as I'm sure I was one of the longest longs in ARIA) why don't you offer a reasonable rebuttal. I'm happy to be educated.
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Galt,
I may be wrong, but Restasis seems to be the number 1 treatment and potentially VOS could replace it. I'm skeptical that it would be allowed for those two to get together.
With regard to other companies with the only treatment, did they get there by purchasing their competition?
You may be correct, but I'm a skeptic.
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Wouldn't the purchase of VOS by Allergen be considered anti-competitive?
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As I former Ariad shareholder, I'd be right there with you.
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Good question, what became of Vid?
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Nothing more than washing shares.
Very likely true. If any of the Ariad investors are looking to shelter those amazing gains from earlier in the year with losses on AUPH, consider selling your AUPH shares and purchasing an equal amount of AUPH, January, $2.50 Call options. I did just that a few minutes ago and paid a two cent premium to the current price of the underlying shares.
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Happy National Rum Day to all!
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Glickman on Cramer link. (I hope it works)
I haven't been checking in for a while. What happened to Vid? Hope he's okay.
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Like Ariad, all of AUPH's down days are a result of someone wanting the shares very badly.
Curious.
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What a great series of posts. No cheerleading, and even BR was able to give his opinion without an all-out attack.
I remember and drug company with a drug that went through the FDA's hoops and when it was approved to sell to the general public (a much larger sample size) it had to be temporarily pulled from the market and came back with a devastating black box warning.
I think it was called Iclusig. Does anyone else remember this drug and the company that developed the drug.
A hedge, properly timed, on that company's stock would have been very valuable.
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I've heard it said that diversification is to protect wealth, concentration is to (potentially) create wealth.
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I'm a cheap SOB. My wife and I ride Trek Townie bicycles. I'm 64 and began investing in Ariad at about 45.
BTW, I thought there was talk of an Ariad Board members meeting at a Caribbean Beach Bar if the sale price exceeded $15. Did I miss the party?
If we could get 4 or 5 of us to go, I'd make the trip. I always wanted to go to Foxies or the Soggy Dollar.
Anyone in?
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Congrats on your new grandson. That's the best.
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nsomniyak, I got your message, but can't respond as I am a cheap SOB and don't pay for iHub.
I've gotten all my info from PR Newswire and Business Wire which both post to my iPhone. I tried to go to the SEC filings through my TD Ameritrade account, but that says "no filings available." I'm not sure why.
I hope this helps.
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For those who care about the goings on of Denner, he is making serious waves in INVA.
I find it very interesting.
Check it out (or don't)
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Not signing today's article speaks volumes about the credibility of both its content and its author.
Totally agree. It also speaks to what a piece of garbage SA really is. To allow articles written by anonymous authors eliminates SA from being a legitimate source.
If anyone follows SA you should consider unsubscribing. That's the only way they would ever get the message.
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You guys are brutal. Just remember, for the most part 2da gave you more information in just one of his early posts than most of you learned on your own in all your DD.
From my take on it, 2da saw a large injustice in the deal Denner made with HB. He sought to have that injustice rectified and was willing to do it at his own expense.
While I don't know the extent of his ownership in ARIA, I am very confident in saying that it was substantial to his total holdings.
Don't forget, he traveled a reasonably long distance to attend Annual Meetings and report back to the board.
You don't have to kiss his butt, but at least recognize that he doesn't deserve to be bashed here.
Go AUPH. Good luck all longs. Lay off 2da.
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nsomniyak, you're correct. I was trying to come up with an example. The May 19, $24 calls also are around the same price with a much greater open interest. Good catch.
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longx, perhaps they're shorting at $23.89 (as I type)and purchasing a March 10, $24.00 call for $0.05 max. It costs the $0.15 or less per share and if the deal falls through they're looking at perhaps a $12 to $15 homerun.
I'm not doing it, but I can see someone taking a shot.
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I'm guessing, but I suspect those shorts may be in place as some sort of hedge.
Some had speculated that when the convertible issue was done, several purchased that security while shorting the common. As I said back then, I'm not sure how the mechanics of this works out, but that doesn't mean it doesn't.
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Hello der kleine Prinz from Germany. I am assuming yu hung in there with your Ariad investment. Excellent!
Hope all is well.
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I think it's safe to say that, while 788 is definitely worth pursuing, the likelihood of success is way less than 50/50.
Perhaps Takeda doesn't want to risk the possibility of a failure and explaining why they paid $xxx million for something that turns out worthless. With the other 2 compounds they have only paid for success.
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Maybe others can now admit that Denner is a major reason we all have more money in our bank accounts today.
Well, I don't think you're talking about me, but just in case, I absolutely think Denner did an amzing job.
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