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Biggest Inflection Point of the Year
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-puplava/biggest-inflection-point-of-the-year
Investment decisions based on the Business Cycle and Sector Rotation
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article371.html
Stocks Stealth Bull Market Dow Trend Forecast into Jan 2011
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23571.html
Economic Calendar - 10/18/10
October 18 - Monday
- Net Long-Term TIC Fl, August (09:00): $61.2B prior
- Industrial Production, September (09:15): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
- Capacity Utilization, September (09:15): 74.8% expected, 74.7% prior
- NAHB Housing Market Survey, October (10:00): 13 expected, 13 prior
October 19 - Tuesday
- Housing Starts, September (08:30): 575K expected, 598K prior
- Building Permits, September (08:30): 565K expected, 569K prior
October 20 - Wednesday
- MBA Mortgage Applications, 10/15 (07:00): 14.6% prior
- Crude Inventories, 10/16 (10:30): -0.416M prior
October 21 - Thursday
- Initial Claims, 10/16 (08:30): 455K expected, 462K prior
- Continuing Claims, 10/09 (08:30): 4400K expected, 4399K prior
- Leading Indicators, September (10:00): 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior
- Philadelphia Fed, October (10:00): 1.4 expected, -0.7 prior
USD Index Forecast Final Conclusion
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23427.html
The USD index is targeting a trend to a new all time low in the region of USD 69-70 by mid 2011, that will be followed by a strong rally that could see the Dollar retrace all of the decline back towards USD 80. The problem is with the timing of these trends as volatility will be high. It's a tough exercise but I conclude in the USD taking some time to base following the mid 2011 low before the subsequent bounce to 80 takes place. Therefore the forecast trend is USD 69-70 by mid 2011 followed by a bounce to 80 by October 2011. The immediate future is suggestive of an imminent bounce towards 80 by early December before the final swing lower to a new all time low takes place as illustrated by the below forecast trend graph.
Economic Calendar - Week 10/12/10
October 12 - Tuesday
- Minutes of FOMC Meeting, 9/21 (2:00)
October 13 - Wednesday
- MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications, 10/08 (07:00): -0.2% prior
- Export Prices ex-ag., September (08:30): 0.5% prior
- Import Prices ex-oil, September (08:30): 0.3% prior
- Crude Inventories, 10/09 (10:30): 3.09M prior
- Treasury Budget, September (14:00): -$32.0B expected, -$46.6B prior
October 14 - Thursday
- Initial Claims, 10/09 (08:30): 449K expected, 445K prior
- Continuing Claims, 10/02 (08:30): 4450K expected, 4462K prior
- PPI, September (08:30): 0.2% expected, 0.4% prior
- Core PPI, September (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
- Trade Balance, August (08:30): -$44.5B expected, -$42.8B prior
October 15 - Friday
- CPI, September (08:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
- Core CPI, September (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
- Retail Sales, September (08:30): 0.4% expected, 0.4% prior
- Retail Sales ex-auto, September (08:30): 0.4% expected, 0.6% prior
- NY Fed - Empire Manu, October (08:30): 6.0 expected, 4.10 prior
- Michigan Sentiment, October (09:55): 68.6 expected, 68.2 prior
- Business Inventories, August (10:00): 0.5% expected, 1.0%
Economoc Calendar - Week of 10/4/10
October 04 - Monday
- Factory Orders, August (10:00): -0.4% expected, 0.1% prior
- Pending Home Sales, August (10:00): 1.0% expected, 5.2% prior
October 05 - Tuesday
- ISM Services, September (10:00): 51.8 expected, 51.5 prior
October 06 - Wednesday
- MBA Mortgage Application, 10/01 (07:00): -0.8% prior
- ADP Employment Change, September (08:15): 18K expected, -10K prior
- Crude Inventories, 10/02 (10:30): -0.475M prior
October 07 - Thursday
- Initial Claims, 10/02 (08:30): 455K expected, 453K prior
- Continuing Claims, 09/25 (08:30): 4450K expected, 4457K prior
- Consumer Credit, August (15:00): -$3.0B expected, -$3.6B prior
October 08 - Friday
- Nonfarm Payrolls, September (08:30): 0K expected, -54K prior
- Nonfarm Private Payrolls, September (08:30): 70K expected, 67K prior
- Unemployment Rate, September (08:30): 9.7% expected, 9.6% prior
- Hourly Earnings, September (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.3% prior
- Average Workweek, September (08:30): 34.2 expected, 34.2 prior
- Wholesale Inventories, August (10:00): 0.4% expected, 1.3% prior
Stock Market Consolidating....
Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010Oct 02, 2010 - 05:24 AM
By: Jack_Steiman
There is a large belief that the market has no chance for a break up and out from here. That the top has been put in when it failed above 1150 a day back. That may very well be true, but I don't think that's the case at all. When the market got to the 1150 area on its way to the big one at 1160, it did so at overbought. Not the best way to get there. It was natural for it to fail there after a big run up. First tests after a big run usually do fail. It usually takes multiple moves back up to take it out.
What you want to see is how the market behaves once it does fail. Will it just fall apart, or will it create a handle, or consolidation, that it can use to work off overbought? This is what is so critical to understanding the future movement of this market. It is my belief that it is handle or consolidation time, and not breakdown time. I will get into the reasons as this letter moves along. Today was a consolidation day and that's the bottom line. Strong buying on all dips after another gap up failed, and that's what you want to see -- thus, today was a decent day for the bulls overall.
Let's go look at those financials. One of the key ones in the group is, of course, Goldman Sachs (GS), which made a very nice move today back over, although only slightly, its 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages. Good action. It's critical for this leader to get off the mat and stop underperforming if this sector has much of a chance to get rolling along and lead this market higher.
In addition, another stock in the dog house and an old leader, Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM), broke out through its 50-day exponential moving average. Again, not by much, but it broke through nonetheless, and that's important. Underneath the surface some old dogs made some important moves higher while everyone's focus was elsewhere. Good to see this type of action in these two old leaders which need to lead again. We'll see if they can hold their positive action from today early next week. So far so good.
When I watch the business news channels, and I don't do it much, I still hear a lot of disbelievers in this rally. Many have been shorting and getting smoked for quite some time now. They will try to convince themselves, and thus, you, that this just can't continue much longer if at all. They are baffled by how well the market has held up. I can't say that I blame them, but it is what it is and they have been, and still are, fighting what's taking place. The market needs these consistent doubters in order to continue to run higher. Once everyone likes the market, the market won't like anyone. The bears are still rocking enough to keep this market inching its way upward.
S&P 500 1150 remains the first important level of resistance, while 1160 is the breakout the bears don't want to even talk about and for good reason. 1131, 1125, 1113 and 1110 are support areas -- moving averages and gaps, etc. The internals on this rally have remained very favorable, and thus, it's hard to imagine this market taking out all of these levels in the near-term. Some selling, of course, but blowing through these levels is unlikely.
The economic reports over the past week have been mostly favorable, and this adds to the unlikelihood that this market will just suddenly give it up. It always can, and I never let my guard down, nor will I be in denial if things turn south in a hurry. I won't question it. I will adapt to it and move along. However, I do think the odds favor a market that will continue to grind higher overall and ultimately have a very good chance of moving through S&P 500 1160, or the two and a half year down trend line on the weekly chart. One day at a time for now as we learn what this market wants to do with this consolidation. So far so good, but I'm always on guard.
OPS Ranking of "1" for China Sun Group High-Tech Reiterated by StockDiagnostics.com
10/01/2010
Sarasota, FL, October 1, 2010-StockDiagnostics.com announced that it has reiterated its OPS Ranking of "1" for China Sun Group High-Tech Company (OTC:CSGH). China Sun Group High-Tech has had an OPS Ranking of "1" for five consecutive quarters.
StockDiagnostics.com's maintaining of the OPS RankingTM is based on China Sun Group High-Tech's recently filed Cash Flow Statements for its quarter ended May 31, 2010. The company's computed OPS TM (Operational-cashflow Per Share) for the quarter was $0.10 per share as compared to $0.06 per share for the comparable year earlier quarter. OPS for the most recent 12 months ended May 31, 2010 was $0.21 per share as compared to $0.24 per share for the 12 months ended May 31, 2009. OPS for China Sun Group High-Tech's trailing twelve months reached a one year low.
The shares of China Sun Group High-Tech were recently trading at $1.05.
“OPS Rankings” originated from the results of an in-depth 1990-2001, research study on Operational Cashflow that was done by StockDiagnostics.com. The study included 3,885 public companies, whose shares traded at a minimum of $6.00 per share in 1999 and also filed their four quarterly reports for fiscal 1999. The findings revealed that each of the company’s “OPS” logically fell into one of eight distinctive risk categories. The categories were the genesis of StockDiagnostics.com’s numerical eight point, 1 through 8, OPS rankings.
The ranking of 1, which the company received means that China Sun Group High-Tech based on its OPS over its most recent four quarters and its aggregated OPS over its latest twelve months is in the lowest risk category. The results from the study indicated that 91.67% of all the companies in this risk category (an OPS Ranking of 1), which had shares that traded at $6.00 or above in 1999 had share prices, which traded at $6.00 or above during 2001.
http://www.stocktrendnews.com/index.php?fuseaction=public.showView&story_id=791722
Will the Mid-Term Elections Drive the Market Into High Gear?
http://moneymorning.com/2010/09/27/stock-markets-3/
Today's Economic Data Highlights
Just one Fed survey today….
10:30: Dallas Fed manufacturing index for Sep…will it recover further? Two months ago, this index plunged sharply into negative territory, one of the worst readings during this period of slowing in US industrial activity. It recovered modestly in August, and analysts look for another move up toward the zero dividing line between growth and contraction. The guts of this survey have not been quite as bad as the headline, though hardly good. The index of production has been around zero through this period; the index of new orders has been around -8 to -9.
Median forecast (of 4): -7.0, ranging from -21 to -4; last -13.5.
Lack Of Capitulation By Shorts, As NYSE Short Interest Remains Near Record, Explains Parabolic September "Flush" Ramp
A week ago, when we pointed out that the NYSE short interest had surged to nearly its highest levels in over a year at 14.4 billion shares, we speculated that as the market surge appeared to be moderating, that the 600+ million in new incremental shorts had covered. This, of course, happened before the most recent parabolic ramp in stocks (which was spun by CNBC as "validated" by Tepper's "buy stocks no matter what" comments). Friday's NYSE SI update now explains the seemingly ceaseless surge in stocks despite constantly deteriorating economic news. The reason: the gross short interest between August 31 and September 15 was completely unchanged! It appears that just as retail investors refuse to allocate capital to stocks regardless of how artificially high the market goes, so shorts completely ignored the ramp in the market from ~ 1050 On August 30 to around 1125 on September 15: short remained dead even at 14.4 billion. So what happens? State Street/BoNY gets the daily short report, passes it on the the repo desks, and tells them to pull the borrow in the most shorted stocks, as apparently the message to the shorts just isn't getting through. And what better way to force a short ramp than to keep shorts massively squeezed. But because the stubborn shorts don't buy the ramp in stocks, they keep putting on new replacement shorts, which has led the market to keep recycling the weakest hands, endless retail outflows be damned. Which means that the squeeze could easily continue for so long as the State Streets of the world believe that the shorts will finally capitulate, and make the rally self-sustaining. So far it is not working.
Economoc Calendar - Week of 9/27/10
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
September 24 - Friday
- Durable Orders, August (08:30): -1.3% actual versus -1.4% expected, 0.7% prior (revised from 0.4%)
- Durable Orders -ex T, August (08:30): 2.0% actual versus 0.6% expected, -2.8% prior (revised from -3.7%)
- New Home Sales, August (10:00): 288K actual versus 291K expected, 288K prior (revised from 276K)
September 28 - Tuesday
- Case-Shiller 20-city, July (09:00): 3.4% expected, 4.23% prior
- Consumer Confidence, September (10:00): 52.9 expected, 53.5 prior
September 29 - Wednesday
- Crude Inventories, 09/25 (10:30): 0.970M prior
September 30 - Thursday
- GDP - Third Estimate, Q2 (08:30): 1.6% expected, 1.6% prior
- GDP - Deflator, Q2 (08:30): 1.9% expected, 1.9% prior
- Initial Claims, 09/25 (08:30): 457K expected, 465K prior
- Continuing Claims, 09/18 (08:30): 4450K expected, 4489K prior
- Chicago PMI, September (09:45): 56.0 expected, 56.7 prior
October 01 - Friday
- Personal Income, August (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.2% prior
- Personal Spending, August (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.4% prior
- PCE Prices - Core, August (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
- U Michigan Consumer , September (09:55): 67.1 expected, 66.6 prior
- Construction Spending, August (10:00): -0.5% expected, -1.0% prior
- ISM Index, September (10:00): 54.5 expected, 56.3 prior
- Auto Sales, September (14:00): 3.8M expected, 3.7M prior
- Truck Sales, September (14:00): 4.9M expected, 4.96M prior
Market Keeps Rolling Higher....
Fri September 24th 2010
Market Keeps Rolling Higher....
by Jack Steiman www.SwingTradeOnline.com
Taking folks by surprise for sure. Not many thought this was possible, but those oscillators did give hints to the possibilities. Now we see what happens when things align just right. Get those MACD's compressed down low in their cycle. Get stochastic's oversold and those RSI's down near 30. Add in some positive divergences, and best of all, get the bull-bear spread inverted, and you take the masses by surprise.
The market took on 1131 and made it through only to give it up one day later. A nice bear fake lower. Today it shot right back through. No hesitation at all as the futures exploded this morning, ignoring not the very best of action overseas. We gapped up beautifully and never looked back. Not for a moment. A trend up day, all day, with the markets closing on their highs.
The Nasdaq led as it was expected as the appetite for beta was there today. And I just love when that happens, especially when I’m on the long side of the market. When the Nasdaq doesn't lead it's not a good sign, but once beta is the play, I love the bullish side of the equation. An excellent day for the bulls for sure as 1131 was taken right back.
One thing I want to discuss, today, is the nonsense I'm hearing on the business television stations. You hear over and over how the market is being led up by only a very few stocks. That's complete and total nonsense. The advance-decline line since this rally began has been nothing short of spectacular. It's not just Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), folks. It's across the board.
I study hundreds of stocks daily, and I can tell you for sure, this is across the board in all sectors. Look at today -- advancers led decliners by an average of 4.5/1. 87% up volume as well. Tell me how that's not the real deal! It's been this way all along. On down days the advance-decline line is never all that bad save the odd day here and there. On the strong days the advance-decline lines, along with all the other critical internals, remain strong. I can understand if it's just here and there that things match price to internals, but it's been a constant. So please don't believe those voices out there telling you that things are a lot worse than they seem. They're as good as they look folks.
When I look at the charts there are two things that stand out. We all know that the real laggards of this market have been the semiconductors and the financials. The semiconductors, in my opinion, have put in a significant low for the near-term. Strong oscillators abound on the daily SMH/SOX chart. The financials aren't quite as promising, but improving at the least.
The market could never really blast up without both sectors, but can do very well if one of them participates. I think the semiconductors are about to add on to the good action we've been seeing there the past few weeks. The financials need more work for sure, but at least things are a bit more promising there. Bottom line is I believe at least one of the two major headaches is behind this market, and possibly both, with one more week of solid action in the financials.
Now here's the key to a bigger picture bull market. The long-term down-trend line on the weekly S&P 500 chart comes in at 1160. I believe an index, or stock, must clear critical support, or resistance, by 1% to verify a breakout, or breakdown. Any move above 1160 S&P 500 will have the bears feeling heavy pressure to cover their shorts. Any move above 1171 will have the bears running to their machines to get them out at any cost.
Bottom line here is if the S&P 500 can start to clear 1160 with force, we may just be in a new bull market confirmed. Strong support remains at 1131 down to 1110. Nasdaq support comes in at 2350 and then 2300. Let's keep a keen eye on S&P 500 1160 if and when it gets tested next week. The bears will be desperate once again at this level. We'll also be near, or at overbought, at 1160 S&P 500, so that'll make the job of clearing 1160 on the first try a bit difficult, but let's watch how things work out next week.
One of the major factors to this week’s rise were the words out of the mouth of Fed Bernanke, who promised the world that he will do whatever it takes in terms of printing dollars to keep this economy afloat. Many will argue with this thesis, as will I, but it's not my job to let my emotions on this subject interfere with the market action taking place. I think it's wrong to leave the printing presses open to prop up an economy. If that's what's needed it's best to let things work out as they need to.
However, the market seems to like what it's hearing from our Fed. Promises to keep things from becoming of the double dip variety is what this market seems to want, and it feels, for now, that he is delivering on keeping this from happening. If the market likes it then I like it, regardless of whether it's morally the right thing to do or not. For now things are looking more positive. We will watch 1160 S&P 500 closely for more clues about much further upside potential.