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Stagflation Investing: Top Assets
What Is Stagflation?
The term describes a period of high inflation and weak economic growth. It appeared in the 1960s to characterize difficult economic times in Britain.
For investors and entrepreneurs alike, it should be a prime concern.
In the current economic climate, you've heard concern about growing inflation. And if that were the only issue, protecting your wealth would be as easy as falling back on tried and tested strategies to hedge against inflation.
But now, the situation has devolved into one where so-called "stagflation" is the status quo.
Why Is Stagflation a Concern for Investors?
In short, stagflation is the worst of both economic worlds: rising inflation and slow economic growth.
On the one hand, inflation is at 9.1% in the United States—a 40-year high. High levels of inflation would be bad enough, weighing heavily on demand.
At the same time, there are other factors at play that are helping to ensure that even falling demand won't be enough to cool rising prices.
Energy costs are a good example.
The war in Ukraine is inflating energy and oil prices. As demand for energy resources continues to rise, a supply hampered by the ongoing hostilities and economic sanctions struggles to rise to the occasion.
And that price shock is unlikely to subside anytime soon. This is bad news for investors because the high cost of energy, in particular, is helping limit global economic growth.
Demand for consumer goods is returning to pre-pandemic levels. But the cost of energy is only one factor among many that make it difficult for the supply chain to keep up.
To try and cool consumer demand, central banks have increased interest rates. The Federal Reserve has made four interest rate hikes in quick succession. This is the most significant hike in interest rates since 1994.
These rate increases—alongside other measures like wage and price controls—cannot halt consumer demand overnight. And according to some authorities, they may even do more harm than good.
The World Bank warned in June that the risk of prolonged stagflation was an imminent possibility.
With that information in mind, investors need to reconsider their future strategies.
What Is Stagflation Investing?
Even amidst the current economic situation, investors should not batten down the hatches and wait for the storm to pass.
Much like investing during a recession, there can be ways to use the situation to your advantage.
That's where stagflation investing comes into play.
Stagflation investing describes strategies to protect and grow your wealth during a stagflation scenario.
Like all investment strategies, it is a matter of making sure your resources are in the right places at the right times.
Best Investments for Stagflation
Real Estate
"Land is the only thing in the world worth working for, worth fighting for, worth dying for because it's the only thing that lasts."
There's something to that famous line from Gone With the Wind.
As a tangible asset, real estate has more inherent worth and reliability than financial products, stocks, and bonds.
Real estate is also an effective hedge against inflation. As the dollar value drops over time, rents and property values keep pace with inflation rates. In some cases, their value can even grow faster than inflation.
If you don't own property or are unwilling to make such a sizable investment, you still have options.
Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are companies that own and manage income-producing properties.
These include rental homes, apartment buildings, office complexes, and shopping centers. Because rents tend to match or exceed inflation rates, these can be secure investments during stagflation periods.
Industrial Commodities
Industrial commodities are bulk goods traded within an industrial market, usually through commissions or exchanges.
Common examples include metal ore, fossil fuels, textiles, and foodstuffs. Almost anything used to make commercial or industrial products can fall within this category.
These commodities can be safe investments because they have tangible, practical value.
When there's rising inflation, commodity prices tend to rise.
For example, no matter the economy's shape, there will always be a demand for copper. Why? Because of its industrial applications.
Lithium is another good example right now. Because of the booming demand for electric vehicles, alongside more mundane electronics and consumer goods, lithium prices have surged 438% above last year.
Prices for many raw materials like copper and lithium should remain high or increase for the foreseeable future. This is because demand remains high while global supplies struggle to keep pace.
Monetary Commodities
Monetary commodities are types of legal tender that derive their value from the commodities they're made of.
Government-issued coins are common instances. For example, the American Eagle or the Canadian Maple Leaf.
That their composition is a valuable material makes them distinct from fiat or representative money. Fiat money, in the form of ordinary cash, has no backing save faith in the institution that issues it.
And while representative money in the form of certificates is worth a set sum of some precious metal, they have no intrinsic worth of their own.
How much physical gold a $50 certificate exchanges for is always subject to change in proportion to the value of a dollar.
Gold commodities, in particular, tend to perform well in periods of stagflation. Their value comes from beauty and scarcity. Its chemical properties make it an essential commodity for major industries.
Because of its cultural and practical value, gold tends to be a strong hedge against inflation. The amount of a given currency in circulation could hypothetically be infinite. But because there's a finite amount of gold, it holds its value much better.
Value and Cyclical Stocks
Value stocks seem to trade at a lower price relative to their fundamentals like dividends, earnings, or sales. In other words, the stock is trading for less than it should, considering the company's performance.
Stagflation is one reason why a stock becomes undervalued. This allows the investor to pick them up at a bargain.
Cyclical stocks are so-named because they tend to follow macroeconomic or systematic cycles. Companies that sell consumer discretionary items are good examples.
Consumers tend to spend less on these items during an economic downturn. In contrast, they spend more on them when the economy is booming.
Investing in cyclical stocks takes it for granted that the economy will rebound. Be it in a matter of months or years.
But in the interim, companies that depend on a lot of discretionary spending tend to suffer losses, driving their stock prices down. This lets investors buy when prices decline and sell at a gain when the economy bounces back.
Equities
During stagflation events, equities are in the same boat as value stocks and cyclical stocks.
Equities are shares of ownership in a company. These can include common stocks and several other types of securities.
Though equities can often weather market instability, they tend to experience temporary downturns during stagflation or recession events.
For the investor who's in the right place at the right time, this can be an opportunity to make a good purchase at a bargain price.
Best Stagflation Stocks
Now we understand what makes a stock a good investment during stagflation.
We want stocks and equities that are either:
undervalued
tied to predictable economic cycles
can weather volatile economic conditions
Here are a few examples of stocks that could make for wise investments right now.
Kroger Co. (Ticker: KR)
Prices may be rising, but Americans still need to eat. And it seems that many are opting to spend their food budget at Kroger.
They're one of the nation's largest pure-play grocery chains. As such, Kroger is producing some admirable returns.
In the past, they've averaged a 23.4% return during historical periods of stagflation, making them one of the best-performing stagflationary stocks.
Hershey Co. (HSY)
It would seem that Americans crave a little sweetness during hard times. At least, that would seem to be the case if Hersey's performance is any sign.
In the past, they've averaged a 23.4% return during historical periods of stagflation. This makes them one of the best-performing stagflationary stocks.
Dover Corp. (DOV)
Dover is a firm specializing in heavy industry equipment. So much like the industrial commodities we spoke of earlier, their products have a certain practical value that helps protect them from stagflation periods.
In prior stagflation periods, the company managed to sustain average returns of 12.3%.
Investments to Avoid When Investing for Stagflation
Stagflation means slow or negative growth in the economy. But some investments are more sensitive to these conditions than others.
Here are the main types of investments for you to avoid.
Growth Stocks
Growth stocks are shares in companies that grow quicker than others in the same industry.
But when the economy slows, companies tend to put expansion plans on hold. This can have negative impacts on their perceived values. Then the prices of growth stocks either stagnate or drop.
Bonds
When a company or government issues bonds, they're crowdsourcing a loan from several investors. The bond serves as a share of that entity's debt. Then, the holder will redeem it for the principal plus interest.
During stagflation periods, bonds tend to lose some of their appeal. High inflation depletes some of the purchasing power that their future returns would generate.
So while the investor should still get the dollar amount promised, that return will be worth less than expected.
Cash and Cash Equivalents
Cash and cash equivalents like CDs and trust funds face the same problems as bonds. As prices continue to rise, a set amount of cash will have less and less purchasing power.
We mentioned earlier that inflation had reached 9.1%, meaning that prices have increased by that amount. So any money you hold in cash has effectively lost 9.1% of its value over time.
That's why keeping money in savings accounts or the like is ineffective. The interest you earn on that money will almost always be lower than the inflation rate. This translates to a net loss in value over time.
How to Invest During Stagflation: Tips and Strategies
Surviving stagflation is about more than what to invest in and what not to invest in. Equally important is how you manage those holdings.
Short-selling, for example, can be a fruitful practice during stagflation. With the economy shrinking, it's not hard to find companies that you can take safe positions against.
Short-selling can also be part of a greater hedging strategy. By taking an opposite position in the market, you can offset some of your losses during a downturn.
But above all else, diversification is the name of the game. You should spread your holdings out across a variety of commodities and equities. That is the best way to ensure that you don't feel the stagnation of any given sector as much.
If you're an entrepreneur, your business is one of your most valuable assets. Another great strategy is investing in your business to ensure its future success.
Investing during stagflationary periods can be a great way to get ahead of the competition.
Many businesses cut back on expenses during this time. But, if you can maintain or increase your investment in your business, you'll be in a much better position when the economy rebounds.
Of course, there are risks involved in any investment, but if you're smart about it, stagflation investing can be a great way to ensure your business's future success.
$HPNN: Hop-on and United Cannabis Sign Contract
Date : 05/19/2014 @ 11:40AM
Source : Marketwired
Stock : Hop-on, Inc. (PC) (HPNN)
Hop-on and United Cannabis Sign Contract
Re-Medical Finds Partner for Standardized Strains, Regional Production
TEMECULA, CA--(Marketwired - May 19, 2014) - Hop-on, Inc. (OTC Pink: HPNN) (PINKSHEETS: HPNN) is pleased to announce today that an agreement has been reached with United Cannabis Corporation, Inc. (UCANN) (OTC Pink: CNAB) (PINKSHEETS: CNAB) to assist with a regional rollout in the multibillion dollar Cannabis market utilizing their licensed partners' prolific catalog of award winning CBD-dominant and THC:CBD strains and world class cultivation expertise.
UCANN was selected as a strategic partner for their expertise in the medical and recreational Cannabis marketplace, their numerous regional partners that are state licensed and have been vetted for quality, consistency, and business ethics, and the fact that they are actively expanding from Colorado to other markets as they become viable. UCANN will assist in provisioning exclusive Cannabis cultivars that meet the stringent needs of Re-Medical's standardized cannabinoid profiles, and provide assistance in the build-out of processing, extraction, and production facilities, and regional sales and distribution operations for Re-Medical's cannabinoid therapies.
Re-Medical will provide licensing of intellectual property, where appropriate, regarding standardized cannabinoid profiles that show empirical or clinical efficacy as treatment for specific ailments, standardized cannabinoid profile extraction methods, efficient extraction of active ingredients from Cannabis using supercritical CO2 fluid extraction technologies, and the formulation and fabrication of transdermal and other innovative cannabinoid delivery technologies.
The market for CBD and other cannabinoid therapies is just beginning to be tapped, with over $600 million in annual sales expected this year in Colorado alone. With the entrance of more regions into the self-regulated cannabis marketplace, and the use of curated strains, professional production and processing methods, and rigorous testing standards, the market currently valued at $1.53 billion is projected to grow 68% to $2.57 billion by the end of 2014.
Peter Michaels, Hop-on CEO, stated, "As strategic partners, Re-Medical and UCANN have the combined resources, experience, and intellectual property to fulfill the longstanding dreams of many who have suffered far too long in a marketplace without standards. Together, we bring a force for quality, safety, efficacy, and a true passion to end needless suffering. It's an amazing thing when what's great for business is also great for society."
About Hop-on, Inc.
Hop-on, Inc. is a global ODM and OEM manufacturer of electronics, based in the United States. Over the past 20 years, Hop-on has successfully secured essential patents for mobile communications and computing technologies, and is respected for developing the world's first disposable cell phone. Hop-on's focus on smartphones and innovative mobile device applications is bringing cost friendly solutions to today's demanding world market. Hop-on is also diversified in nutraceutical and cannabinoid technologies through its subsidiary Re-Medical, Inc. For more information, please visit www.hop-on.com and www.re-medical.com
About UCANN
United Cannabis Corporation has a foundation in the cannabis industries. With our consulting services, management and oversight we are capable of assisting any Cannabis oriented company on any scale. United Cannabis Corporation is now partnering domestically and internationally with local businessmen, entrepreneurs, scientists, and government agencies for the purpose of promoting Best Practices in Planning, Procedures, Governance and Patient Care. Consulting and providing guidance on design and construction of growth facilities and cultivation of medical grade cannabis-based products worldwide. With access to a catalog of award winning genetics and coupled with our leadership & experience we are positioned to take any Cannabis Business through all of the steps for success. For further information, please visit www.unitedcannabis.us
Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements in this news release may contain forward-looking information within the meaning of Rule 175 under the Securities Act of 1933, and are subject to Rule 3B-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and are subject to the safe harbor created by those rules. All statements, other than statements of fact, included in this release, including, without limitation, statements regarding potential future plans and objectives of the company, are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate and other results and further events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Future events and actual results could differ materially from those set forth in, contemplated by, or underlying the forward-looking statements.
Additional Information
For additional information, please contact
Shareholder Services
(949) 756-9008
Email contact@hop-on.com
- Go HPNN
Biggest Inflection Point of the Year
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-puplava/biggest-inflection-point-of-the-year
Investment decisions based on the Business Cycle and Sector Rotation
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article371.html
Stocks Stealth Bull Market Dow Trend Forecast into Jan 2011
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23571.html
Economic Calendar - 10/18/10
October 18 - Monday
- Net Long-Term TIC Fl, August (09:00): $61.2B prior
- Industrial Production, September (09:15): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
- Capacity Utilization, September (09:15): 74.8% expected, 74.7% prior
- NAHB Housing Market Survey, October (10:00): 13 expected, 13 prior
October 19 - Tuesday
- Housing Starts, September (08:30): 575K expected, 598K prior
- Building Permits, September (08:30): 565K expected, 569K prior
October 20 - Wednesday
- MBA Mortgage Applications, 10/15 (07:00): 14.6% prior
- Crude Inventories, 10/16 (10:30): -0.416M prior
October 21 - Thursday
- Initial Claims, 10/16 (08:30): 455K expected, 462K prior
- Continuing Claims, 10/09 (08:30): 4400K expected, 4399K prior
- Leading Indicators, September (10:00): 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior
- Philadelphia Fed, October (10:00): 1.4 expected, -0.7 prior
USD Index Forecast Final Conclusion
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23427.html
The USD index is targeting a trend to a new all time low in the region of USD 69-70 by mid 2011, that will be followed by a strong rally that could see the Dollar retrace all of the decline back towards USD 80. The problem is with the timing of these trends as volatility will be high. It's a tough exercise but I conclude in the USD taking some time to base following the mid 2011 low before the subsequent bounce to 80 takes place. Therefore the forecast trend is USD 69-70 by mid 2011 followed by a bounce to 80 by October 2011. The immediate future is suggestive of an imminent bounce towards 80 by early December before the final swing lower to a new all time low takes place as illustrated by the below forecast trend graph.
Economic Calendar - Week 10/12/10
October 12 - Tuesday
- Minutes of FOMC Meeting, 9/21 (2:00)
October 13 - Wednesday
- MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications, 10/08 (07:00): -0.2% prior
- Export Prices ex-ag., September (08:30): 0.5% prior
- Import Prices ex-oil, September (08:30): 0.3% prior
- Crude Inventories, 10/09 (10:30): 3.09M prior
- Treasury Budget, September (14:00): -$32.0B expected, -$46.6B prior
October 14 - Thursday
- Initial Claims, 10/09 (08:30): 449K expected, 445K prior
- Continuing Claims, 10/02 (08:30): 4450K expected, 4462K prior
- PPI, September (08:30): 0.2% expected, 0.4% prior
- Core PPI, September (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
- Trade Balance, August (08:30): -$44.5B expected, -$42.8B prior
October 15 - Friday
- CPI, September (08:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
- Core CPI, September (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
- Retail Sales, September (08:30): 0.4% expected, 0.4% prior
- Retail Sales ex-auto, September (08:30): 0.4% expected, 0.6% prior
- NY Fed - Empire Manu, October (08:30): 6.0 expected, 4.10 prior
- Michigan Sentiment, October (09:55): 68.6 expected, 68.2 prior
- Business Inventories, August (10:00): 0.5% expected, 1.0%
Economoc Calendar - Week of 10/4/10
October 04 - Monday
- Factory Orders, August (10:00): -0.4% expected, 0.1% prior
- Pending Home Sales, August (10:00): 1.0% expected, 5.2% prior
October 05 - Tuesday
- ISM Services, September (10:00): 51.8 expected, 51.5 prior
October 06 - Wednesday
- MBA Mortgage Application, 10/01 (07:00): -0.8% prior
- ADP Employment Change, September (08:15): 18K expected, -10K prior
- Crude Inventories, 10/02 (10:30): -0.475M prior
October 07 - Thursday
- Initial Claims, 10/02 (08:30): 455K expected, 453K prior
- Continuing Claims, 09/25 (08:30): 4450K expected, 4457K prior
- Consumer Credit, August (15:00): -$3.0B expected, -$3.6B prior
October 08 - Friday
- Nonfarm Payrolls, September (08:30): 0K expected, -54K prior
- Nonfarm Private Payrolls, September (08:30): 70K expected, 67K prior
- Unemployment Rate, September (08:30): 9.7% expected, 9.6% prior
- Hourly Earnings, September (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.3% prior
- Average Workweek, September (08:30): 34.2 expected, 34.2 prior
- Wholesale Inventories, August (10:00): 0.4% expected, 1.3% prior
Stock Market Consolidating....
Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010Oct 02, 2010 - 05:24 AM
By: Jack_Steiman
There is a large belief that the market has no chance for a break up and out from here. That the top has been put in when it failed above 1150 a day back. That may very well be true, but I don't think that's the case at all. When the market got to the 1150 area on its way to the big one at 1160, it did so at overbought. Not the best way to get there. It was natural for it to fail there after a big run up. First tests after a big run usually do fail. It usually takes multiple moves back up to take it out.
What you want to see is how the market behaves once it does fail. Will it just fall apart, or will it create a handle, or consolidation, that it can use to work off overbought? This is what is so critical to understanding the future movement of this market. It is my belief that it is handle or consolidation time, and not breakdown time. I will get into the reasons as this letter moves along. Today was a consolidation day and that's the bottom line. Strong buying on all dips after another gap up failed, and that's what you want to see -- thus, today was a decent day for the bulls overall.
Let's go look at those financials. One of the key ones in the group is, of course, Goldman Sachs (GS), which made a very nice move today back over, although only slightly, its 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages. Good action. It's critical for this leader to get off the mat and stop underperforming if this sector has much of a chance to get rolling along and lead this market higher.
In addition, another stock in the dog house and an old leader, Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM), broke out through its 50-day exponential moving average. Again, not by much, but it broke through nonetheless, and that's important. Underneath the surface some old dogs made some important moves higher while everyone's focus was elsewhere. Good to see this type of action in these two old leaders which need to lead again. We'll see if they can hold their positive action from today early next week. So far so good.
When I watch the business news channels, and I don't do it much, I still hear a lot of disbelievers in this rally. Many have been shorting and getting smoked for quite some time now. They will try to convince themselves, and thus, you, that this just can't continue much longer if at all. They are baffled by how well the market has held up. I can't say that I blame them, but it is what it is and they have been, and still are, fighting what's taking place. The market needs these consistent doubters in order to continue to run higher. Once everyone likes the market, the market won't like anyone. The bears are still rocking enough to keep this market inching its way upward.
S&P 500 1150 remains the first important level of resistance, while 1160 is the breakout the bears don't want to even talk about and for good reason. 1131, 1125, 1113 and 1110 are support areas -- moving averages and gaps, etc. The internals on this rally have remained very favorable, and thus, it's hard to imagine this market taking out all of these levels in the near-term. Some selling, of course, but blowing through these levels is unlikely.
The economic reports over the past week have been mostly favorable, and this adds to the unlikelihood that this market will just suddenly give it up. It always can, and I never let my guard down, nor will I be in denial if things turn south in a hurry. I won't question it. I will adapt to it and move along. However, I do think the odds favor a market that will continue to grind higher overall and ultimately have a very good chance of moving through S&P 500 1160, or the two and a half year down trend line on the weekly chart. One day at a time for now as we learn what this market wants to do with this consolidation. So far so good, but I'm always on guard.
Will the Mid-Term Elections Drive the Market Into High Gear?
http://moneymorning.com/2010/09/27/stock-markets-3/
Today's Economic Data Highlights
Just one Fed survey today….
10:30: Dallas Fed manufacturing index for Sep…will it recover further? Two months ago, this index plunged sharply into negative territory, one of the worst readings during this period of slowing in US industrial activity. It recovered modestly in August, and analysts look for another move up toward the zero dividing line between growth and contraction. The guts of this survey have not been quite as bad as the headline, though hardly good. The index of production has been around zero through this period; the index of new orders has been around -8 to -9.
Median forecast (of 4): -7.0, ranging from -21 to -4; last -13.5.
Lack Of Capitulation By Shorts, As NYSE Short Interest Remains Near Record, Explains Parabolic September "Flush" Ramp
A week ago, when we pointed out that the NYSE short interest had surged to nearly its highest levels in over a year at 14.4 billion shares, we speculated that as the market surge appeared to be moderating, that the 600+ million in new incremental shorts had covered. This, of course, happened before the most recent parabolic ramp in stocks (which was spun by CNBC as "validated" by Tepper's "buy stocks no matter what" comments). Friday's NYSE SI update now explains the seemingly ceaseless surge in stocks despite constantly deteriorating economic news. The reason: the gross short interest between August 31 and September 15 was completely unchanged! It appears that just as retail investors refuse to allocate capital to stocks regardless of how artificially high the market goes, so shorts completely ignored the ramp in the market from ~ 1050 On August 30 to around 1125 on September 15: short remained dead even at 14.4 billion. So what happens? State Street/BoNY gets the daily short report, passes it on the the repo desks, and tells them to pull the borrow in the most shorted stocks, as apparently the message to the shorts just isn't getting through. And what better way to force a short ramp than to keep shorts massively squeezed. But because the stubborn shorts don't buy the ramp in stocks, they keep putting on new replacement shorts, which has led the market to keep recycling the weakest hands, endless retail outflows be damned. Which means that the squeeze could easily continue for so long as the State Streets of the world believe that the shorts will finally capitulate, and make the rally self-sustaining. So far it is not working.
Economoc Calendar - Week of 9/27/10
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
September 24 - Friday
- Durable Orders, August (08:30): -1.3% actual versus -1.4% expected, 0.7% prior (revised from 0.4%)
- Durable Orders -ex T, August (08:30): 2.0% actual versus 0.6% expected, -2.8% prior (revised from -3.7%)
- New Home Sales, August (10:00): 288K actual versus 291K expected, 288K prior (revised from 276K)
September 28 - Tuesday
- Case-Shiller 20-city, July (09:00): 3.4% expected, 4.23% prior
- Consumer Confidence, September (10:00): 52.9 expected, 53.5 prior
September 29 - Wednesday
- Crude Inventories, 09/25 (10:30): 0.970M prior
September 30 - Thursday
- GDP - Third Estimate, Q2 (08:30): 1.6% expected, 1.6% prior
- GDP - Deflator, Q2 (08:30): 1.9% expected, 1.9% prior
- Initial Claims, 09/25 (08:30): 457K expected, 465K prior
- Continuing Claims, 09/18 (08:30): 4450K expected, 4489K prior
- Chicago PMI, September (09:45): 56.0 expected, 56.7 prior
October 01 - Friday
- Personal Income, August (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.2% prior
- Personal Spending, August (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.4% prior
- PCE Prices - Core, August (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
- U Michigan Consumer , September (09:55): 67.1 expected, 66.6 prior
- Construction Spending, August (10:00): -0.5% expected, -1.0% prior
- ISM Index, September (10:00): 54.5 expected, 56.3 prior
- Auto Sales, September (14:00): 3.8M expected, 3.7M prior
- Truck Sales, September (14:00): 4.9M expected, 4.96M prior
Market Keeps Rolling Higher....
Fri September 24th 2010
Market Keeps Rolling Higher....
by Jack Steiman www.SwingTradeOnline.com
Taking folks by surprise for sure. Not many thought this was possible, but those oscillators did give hints to the possibilities. Now we see what happens when things align just right. Get those MACD's compressed down low in their cycle. Get stochastic's oversold and those RSI's down near 30. Add in some positive divergences, and best of all, get the bull-bear spread inverted, and you take the masses by surprise.
The market took on 1131 and made it through only to give it up one day later. A nice bear fake lower. Today it shot right back through. No hesitation at all as the futures exploded this morning, ignoring not the very best of action overseas. We gapped up beautifully and never looked back. Not for a moment. A trend up day, all day, with the markets closing on their highs.
The Nasdaq led as it was expected as the appetite for beta was there today. And I just love when that happens, especially when I’m on the long side of the market. When the Nasdaq doesn't lead it's not a good sign, but once beta is the play, I love the bullish side of the equation. An excellent day for the bulls for sure as 1131 was taken right back.
One thing I want to discuss, today, is the nonsense I'm hearing on the business television stations. You hear over and over how the market is being led up by only a very few stocks. That's complete and total nonsense. The advance-decline line since this rally began has been nothing short of spectacular. It's not just Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), folks. It's across the board.
I study hundreds of stocks daily, and I can tell you for sure, this is across the board in all sectors. Look at today -- advancers led decliners by an average of 4.5/1. 87% up volume as well. Tell me how that's not the real deal! It's been this way all along. On down days the advance-decline line is never all that bad save the odd day here and there. On the strong days the advance-decline lines, along with all the other critical internals, remain strong. I can understand if it's just here and there that things match price to internals, but it's been a constant. So please don't believe those voices out there telling you that things are a lot worse than they seem. They're as good as they look folks.
When I look at the charts there are two things that stand out. We all know that the real laggards of this market have been the semiconductors and the financials. The semiconductors, in my opinion, have put in a significant low for the near-term. Strong oscillators abound on the daily SMH/SOX chart. The financials aren't quite as promising, but improving at the least.
The market could never really blast up without both sectors, but can do very well if one of them participates. I think the semiconductors are about to add on to the good action we've been seeing there the past few weeks. The financials need more work for sure, but at least things are a bit more promising there. Bottom line is I believe at least one of the two major headaches is behind this market, and possibly both, with one more week of solid action in the financials.
Now here's the key to a bigger picture bull market. The long-term down-trend line on the weekly S&P 500 chart comes in at 1160. I believe an index, or stock, must clear critical support, or resistance, by 1% to verify a breakout, or breakdown. Any move above 1160 S&P 500 will have the bears feeling heavy pressure to cover their shorts. Any move above 1171 will have the bears running to their machines to get them out at any cost.
Bottom line here is if the S&P 500 can start to clear 1160 with force, we may just be in a new bull market confirmed. Strong support remains at 1131 down to 1110. Nasdaq support comes in at 2350 and then 2300. Let's keep a keen eye on S&P 500 1160 if and when it gets tested next week. The bears will be desperate once again at this level. We'll also be near, or at overbought, at 1160 S&P 500, so that'll make the job of clearing 1160 on the first try a bit difficult, but let's watch how things work out next week.
One of the major factors to this week’s rise were the words out of the mouth of Fed Bernanke, who promised the world that he will do whatever it takes in terms of printing dollars to keep this economy afloat. Many will argue with this thesis, as will I, but it's not my job to let my emotions on this subject interfere with the market action taking place. I think it's wrong to leave the printing presses open to prop up an economy. If that's what's needed it's best to let things work out as they need to.
However, the market seems to like what it's hearing from our Fed. Promises to keep things from becoming of the double dip variety is what this market seems to want, and it feels, for now, that he is delivering on keeping this from happening. If the market likes it then I like it, regardless of whether it's morally the right thing to do or not. For now things are looking more positive. We will watch 1160 S&P 500 closely for more clues about much further upside potential.
Covered at 10970 for 76 points
covered at 11028 for 10 point - too much like work. I'm done
covered at 1695 for 2 more
2 more at 1698
Short 2 NQ @ 1694
Out of both at 1691.5 for 2 points...LOL
Added another short @ 1700
Target hit ... ...
63 points
Out of both for 1/10 of a point loss and glad to take it. Contract expires Thursday.
***...***...***
Stops hit...
Out of YM for 108 points x $5 = $540
Out of ES for 6.25 points x $50 = $312.5
total = $852.5
: )
Stops moved ... ...
YM at 10916
ES at 1271.25
Stops set... ...
YM at 10904
ES at 1270
Still holding. Lots more left...especially YM
Covered one on a 8.05 trigger sale. Still holding one.
Go against the herd today. WAY too many calling for shorts.
Long ES @ 1265 and long YM @ 10804
Covered @ 573 for 2.9 points x (3)contracts = 8.7 points
Thank goodness the order was not a GTC.
That was an accident but I'll take it. No support for now so I'll stand aside and watch. The bottom could easily be in the mid 6's...ouch
Covered @1269.25 for 3.25
Before I go I will say it's just about time to short this pig.......meaning ES for the big ride down.
IHUB is a real POS...huh
No more posting trades on this worthless site.
Covered @ 59.375 for 150 bones. A retest of the trend line awaits around 58.8
Thanks DJ, I just covered both @ 1204.25...
$1568 profit after commission.
Economic Calendar
http://research.tdameritrade.com/public/fixedincome/economicCalendar.asp
www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/ Bloomberg
www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/stir/30-day-federal-fund.html
www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx
General Market Condition
stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html
Major Sector
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Sub-Sector
Transportation
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Housing Related
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stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html Home Furnishing Retailers
Energy Related
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stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html Natural Gas Plays
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WatchLists
Industry News
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Steel Industry
www.steelguru.com/news_today/news_list_from_steelguru.html
Mortgage Insurance
www.dsnews.com/tag/mortgage-insurance
finance.einnews.com/news/mortgage-insurance
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