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Hey Jal. Still reading all of the informative posts here. I sold all of my shares as soon as PTQ broke below $1.11 last week for both technical reasons, and because of the about-face of Martinelli. Initially, my #1 reason for holding this stock was the pro-mining stance of the Panamanian government. This completely evaporated last week. When technicals and fundamentals both turn negative, I sell.
As for buying back in, if PTQ can break $1.02 I may seriously consider acquiring a new position. Cheers to all posters here for contributing to the most informative and unbiased forum I have ever known.
In4Money9
Today NCP Northland Capital Partners purchased 473,200 shares of PTQ on the TSX. It would seem that shares of PDI would be of interest to them. From the NCP website:
MINING & MINERALS
It is our expectation that the demand for metals and mining will continue to increase in the future with global industrial advancements and infrastructure investments. The evolution of the global economy will require the products and services of metals and mining companies globally.
INDUSTRIALS & INFRASTRUCTURE
The industrials and infrastructure industry is an important consideration in the Canadian marketplace. The innovative construction companies provide stable long-term growth opportunities for investors as the demands for new roads and bridges and new pipelines arise. The recent global commitment by governments to infrastructure served to heighten attention to the importance of infrastructure development as a critical linchpin for economic development.
Jal, the last major breakout that saw PTQ rise from .63 to $1.22 was over a 2 week span. Today, a breakout above $1.36 could see us over $2.00 within a similar 2-week time frame. I will be just as happy if it takes 4 months!
Cheers,
In4Money9
PTQ technicals are pointing towards a very strong move upwards. According to the chart, a breakout may occur sometime later this week or early next week. My personal target is $2.36 for the next intermediate peak.
GLTA,
In4Money9
This quote from their November 10, 2010 press release:
"The company continues to increase the production capacity of its facilities by incrementing the carbon-in-column hydraulic capacity by 100 per cent in the next 14 weeks. This capacity increase will increase the throughput capacity of the plant by 40 per cent and allow higher throughputs as well as diversify the metallurgical processes."
Fourteen weeks from Nov 10 is mid-February. Might create some additional positives for Q3. and definitely Q4 if they are on schedule.
Cheers,
In4Money9
Short History for PTQ
Symbol Exch Report Date Volume Change
PTQ T 2011-01-31 2,318,098 241,135
PTQ T 2011-01-15 2,076,963 185,655
PTQ T 2010-12-31 1,891,308 -3,385,880
PTQ T 2010-12-15 5,277,188 3,752,532
Eye on the prize - PTQ just went above the $1.20 pivot price yet again. Heading much higher soon IMO.
Cheers,
In4Money9
I pulled the trigger and bought more today. With gold doing so badly and the PTQ technicals so good I couldn't resist.
I didn't want to mention it in my earlier post so as not to hex the trading, but the pennant was due to pinch-off near the end of today's trading. We got the close above $1.22 that I wanted. Now we need some follow through tomorrow morning - and back to $1.36.
Cheers,
In4Money9
Looks like a prearranged sale of 320,000 shares at $1.21 by Casimir and all eaten by Fidelity in one chomp. The day high of $1.25 and close at $1.23 bodes well for tomorrow.
Wow! PTQ just broke upwards and is nearly out its pennant. Odds of a major push higher just increased substantially.
GLTA,
In4Money9
Hi Jal. The share price is holding the bullish move initiated 13 trading days ago. The intraday chart shows PTQ pivoting above and below $1.20 with progressively smaller swings forming a nice penant. Once the penant is near completion, we will break hard and fast either way. Since PTQ spent more time in the top half of the formation, and because the prior move to this level was up, I lay 75% odds that we break to the upside. Some timely positive news will see our odds increase dramatically.
A closing price today higher than $1.22 would help seal the deal.
Cheers,
In4Money9
MJ, having you aboard is the same as having our own on-site reporter in Panama.
Thank you,
In4Money9
PTQ will issue the shares, but it will be the open trading system of the stock market that will dictate the PDI share price. That said, I too suspect that the market will price the shares higher than 25% of the share price of PTQ.
Cheers,
In4Money9
No worries Lojiko! Take all the thunder you want! I am not here to compete. I have gleaned far more from the board than I can offer, so when I see a chance to help out, I do. Thanks for your time spent in running a very civil board.
GLTA,
In4Money9
I am not sure Jal. Hopefully DVM or another poster will give their frank asssessment of this update to help us out. The market certainly likes it so far.
Cheers,
In4Money9
NEWS!!
Petaquilla Highlights Operational and Financial Performance
Ticker Symbol: C:PTQ U:PTQMF X:FRANKFURT:P7Z
Petaquilla Minerals Ltd. (the "Company") (TSX: PTQ)(OTCBB: PTQMF)(FWB: P7Z) announces that during the second quarter of its fiscal 2011 year, the Company focused its efforts primarily on strengthening its financial position. The net proceeds from the closing of a US$45 million Forward Gold Purchase Agreement with Deutsche Bank AG, London Branch, were fully utilized to partially redeem the Company's outstanding notes. This redemption was followed in the current third quarter of fiscal 2011 by a CAD$32 million private placement, the net proceeds of which are intended to fully pay out the remaining notes balance. Full redemption of the outstanding notes will reduce annual interest expenses by approximately US$11 million and, thus, will enable the Company to direct its cash flow to the advancement of its Molejon development plans, specifically to make production efficiency improvements, the heap leach project and Oro del Norte exploration efforts.
The concurrent exercise of warrants, which generated CAD$6 million, also contributed to positive cash-flow of US$5.2 million and a cash balance, at the end of the second quarter of fiscal 2011, of US$8.0 million.
Gold sales during the second quarter reached 13,166 ounces, representing an improvement of 7.8% over the Company's first quarter results, for a gross margin of US$7.7 million, an improvement of 63.8% over US$4.7 the previous quarter, attributable mainly to higher gold prices and lower production costs which, despite the reported contingencies, have improved 7.8% compared with the preceding period.
Despite unusually high levels of precipitation that, at times, resulted in the slowdown of production during the second quarter, the Company poured 15,353 ounces of gold, representing an improvement of 43.0% over the prior quarter, due to improved maintenance routines and faster response times to operating disruptions. As a result, production repeatedly reached volumes in line with planned production of 8,000 ounces monthly.
The Company also wishes to highlight that, in addition to the volumes produced during the three month period ended November 2010, it also increased its stockpile of gold for future process and heap leaching by 8,700 ounces. The combined amount of gold processed and stockpiled was 24,053 ounces.
The Company, working in conjunction with consultant Metcon Research, also advanced the testing, design and engineering of its heap leach project, confirming the recoverability of ounces down to a cut-off grade of 0.18g, thereby, opening the opportunity to acquire additional resources. In this context, the Company continues to work with Behre Dolbear & Company, Inc., a minerals consulting firm, on re-designing its open pit and corresponding mine plan in order to incorporate these additional National Instrument 43-101 resources.
Furthermore, the Company continues its aggressive exploration program on the Petaquilla Mining District, outside of the Molejon area, having invested during the second quarter of fiscal 2011 approximately US$2.3 million (US$4.7 million year-to-date) in trenching, geological surveys, assays, topography and logistics. The Company will be issuing an exploration update news release shortly.
About Petaquilla Minerals Ltd. - Petaquilla Minerals Ltd. is a gold producer operating its gold processing plant at its 100% owned Molejon Gold Project in Panama. The Molejon mine site is located in the south central area of the Company's 100% owned 842 square kilometre concession lands, a region known historically for gold content.
On behalf of the Board of Directors of PETAQUILLA MINERALS LTD.
Joao C. Manuel, Chief Executive Officer
No stock exchange has approved or disapproved the information contained herein.
Contacts:
Petaquilla Minerals Ltd.
Joao C. Manuel
Chief Executive Officer
(604) 694-0021 or Toll Free: 1-877-694-0021
(604) 694-0063 (FAX)
www.petaquilla.com
Apparently nobody on this board has information that is specific to today's rise. Will we be seeing a press release that states "The CEO of Petaquilla knows of no material change in the company's affairs that would cause so much buying in PTQ shares"? LOL!!!
Cheers,
In4Money9
Excellent work anski! Take that rate and add the 40% increase in production coming into effect this quarter and wham!
5,900/month x 12 =
70,800 oz/year x 1.4 =
99,120 oz/year!
Oh, and we will be debt free and we broke even on production at rate of 50,000oz/year in Q2??
What will Q3 bring?!!!!
PTQ is the 6th largest trader on the TSX so far today! Ricnat, MJ and everyone else, what are your best guesses as to what the excitement is about?
Cheers,
In4Money9
Here are the big trades today:
T 20110117 09:33:14 1.10 -0.07 100000 78 Salman 15 UBS K
T 20110117 11:30:23 1.18 0.01 100000 78 Salman 78 Salman K
T 20110117 10:53:29 1.17 0.00 150000 78 Salman 78 Salman K
T 20110117 10:16:56 1.16 -0.01 250000 78 Salman 78 Salman K
T 20110117 10:20:10 1.16 -0.01 250000 78 Salman 78 Salman K
Wow! If we even hold here today will be a huge buy signal for tomorrow. Large white candle on high volume (2M so far). I got too greedy with my stink bid and missed out on owning more - the day is still young.
Thanks to everyone for the great info.
Cheers,
In4Money9
Minimal chart damage as we broke the seal briefly at $1.07 to touch $1.05. It might as well hammer down to .98 at this point, but this now seems most unlikely as we have refreshed the support at $1.07. Monster bids are returning as a type (395,000 @ $1.08).
GLTA,
In4Money9
Agreed Lojiko. I am hoping for a huge dip in the price tomorrow so I can add more to my position. "When everyone's crying, you should be buying."
With the rains now gone and production back up (I would think), compounded by a further 40% in throughput as outlined in my previous post, Q3 is surely to be at least slightly improved and possibly surpass all expectations.
Cheers,
In4Money9
Here is the Nov 10, 2010 news release that references the 100,000 ounce rate of production. I highlighted one of its paragraphs below because if the plan is implemented as described, PTQ will move from 50,000 ounces to 70,000 ounces per year during this quarter. Could this explain some investors slapping down $32M since the time of this release?
Petaquilla increases working capital to $6.18-million
2010-11-10 12:28 ET - News Release
Shares issued 125,481,951
PTQ Close 2010-11-10 C$ 1.02
Mr. Richard Fifer reports
PETAQUILLA REACHES ANNUAL PRODUCTION RATE OF 100,000 OUNCES AND INCREASES WORKING CAPITAL
Petaquilla Minerals Ltd. has increased its production rate.
Within the past 10 days, the company produced in excess of 100,000 annual ounces of gold by pouring 2,762 ounces of gold. This equates to a monthly gold production rate of 8,562 ounces and an annual production rate of 102,744 ounces.
This production rate represents an operational efficiency of the Molejon production facility of 95.2 per cent.
The company continues to increase the production capacity of its facilities by incrementing the carbon-in-column hydraulic capacity by 100 per cent in the next 14 weeks. This capacity increase will increase the throughput capacity of the plant by 40 per cent and allow higher throughputs as well as diversify the metallurgical processes.
The company is also pleased to announce that Peninsula Merchant Syndications Corp., along with affiliated underwriters, have exercised a total of 5.3 million warrants of the 23,363,800 warrants priced at 65 cents, during the past three working days. The exercise of these warrants has increased the company's working capital to $6.18-million as of this date. The exercise of the additional 18,063,800 warrants would add an additional $11,741,470 to working capital. These warrants are callable within 30 days if the closing trading price of the company's common shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange is $1.00 or more for a period of 30 consecutive trading days.
Based on today's production rate and gold at $1,300 (U.S.) per ounce, the company projects to increment its working capital by $10-million (U.S.) from production by Dec. 31.
The company restates further to its Nov. 1, 2010, news release in Stockwatch, its commitment to develop its Heap Leach project. The positive gold-recovery test results received from two years of metallurgical evaluation on the company's oxide-gold resource were ratified by METCON Research, an affiliate of KD Engineering, as to the commercial viability of this metallurgical process. The company has committed to move forward with the construction of its Heap Leach project and associated infrastructure.
These positive results from the Heap Leach project make available for further evaluation the following additional resources, National Instrument 43-101-compliant, 23.01 million tonnes at 0.26 gram per tonne gold for a total of 194,712 gold ounces (measured category at a 0.1-gram-per-tonne cut-off), 73.7 million tonnes at 0.19 gram per tonne gold for a total of 447,264 gold ounces (indicated category at a 0.1-gram-per-tonne cut-off) and 95.7 million tonnes at 0.16 gram per tonne gold for a total of 495,885 gold ounces (inferred category at a 0.1-gram-per-tonne cut-off) at the company's Molejon and nearby satellite projects. These resources are in addition to the National Instrument 43-101-compliant resources of 28.3 million tonnes at one gram per tone gold for a total of 911,023 gold ounces (measured and indicated category at a 0.3-gram-per-tonne cut-off) as more fully detailed in the company's news release of Oct. 18, 2007, in Stockwatch, within the Molejon gold deposit.
Rodrigo Carneiro, PEng, director of METCON Research and process engineering of KD Engineering and METCON Research of Tucson, Ariz., is an independent qualified person as defined by National Instrument 43-101. Mr. Carneiro supervised the metallurgical testing and verified the relevant data and technical information contained in this news release.
Precisely Jal re the news omissions. Because of the financing and the imminent warrant call PTQ will be a debt free and financially viable company. I agree with DVM that a string of positive press releases will be coming our way, and that PTQ can eventually earn a reputation for putting out periodic and positive news releases. The investment community's memory is relatively short when it comes to these types of surprises as more current and positive press releases move into the picture.
In4Money9
Management appears to have been very selective with their news releases. I for one believe that for a couple of weeks in the fall they were indeed producing gold at a rate of 100,000 ounces a year as management reported.
Following that press release, I feel that the mine's operations were shut down due to the record rainfall. This news was not related to shareholders and should have been. Had full disclosure taken place through periodic production reports we would have few issues with the Q2 filings.
With the rains gone, my suspicion is that production is now moving along at a brisk pace and that Q3 will surprise to the upside and even show a profit. The subscription to the recent PP provides me with clues to the state of PTQ's more current operations. I will be waiting for a good entry point over the next 2 weeks to add to my holdings and "buy on the bad news".
GLTA,
In4Money9
Great post DVM. Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts.
Cheers,
In4Money9
The loss for the quarter was $(7,107,701) and consists in part of:
$(3,988,012) to DB costs!!!!
$(2,120,354) in losses on the notes!!!!
$(2,519,541) admin ($1M above Q1-possibile Fifer fee for DB deal?)
$(2,686,809) depletion and ammortization
$(2,351,318) exploration and development
The DB expenses and losses on the notes will be disappearing from the upcoming quarters. The DB costs (a surprise to me) and the burdon of the notes total $6.1M. Without those expenses, the loss would have been a mere $1M or less than a penny/share. With the added production scheduled to come on stream and the absence of future financing costs, we will be churning a profit in the near future.
The bottom line loss per share may cause a dip in our share price this coming week. I will be buying.
I received the Quarterlies and Management Discussion earlier tonight, and posted a bit of it to you at the time. I was surprised to see that the entire $4M in fees associated with DB deal were applied as a lump sum expense in the quarter! Ouch! They also wrote-down a lot of money again on their secured notes, as they were still in play during the quarter. Exploration fees were up! Here is discussion on the quarter:
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS – FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED NOVEMBER 30,
2010 COMPARED TO THE THREE MONTHS ENDED NOVEMBER 30, 2009
The Company’s consolidated financial statements have been prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in Canada and all amounts are expressed in United
States dollars unless otherwise indicated. The operating results of PTQ reflect its ongoing administrative costs, net of interest and other income, revenue from the sale of gold, production and operating expenses and amortization and depletion. Commercial production at the Molejon Gold mine commenced on January 8, 2010.
Revenue and cost of salesMetal sales were $17,723,505 and cash cost of sales was $9,996,879 during the three months ended November 30, 2010. Prior to the attainment of commercial production, all revenue and
operating costs associated with the commissioning of the mill were capitalized as part of mineral properties. Therefore there are no metal sales or cash cost of sales recognized in the
results of operations for the three months ending November 30, 2009.
Amortization and depletion
Amortization of production equipment and depletion of mineral properties were $2,686,809 for the three months ended November 30, 2010 compared to Nil for the three months ended November 30, 2009. During the pre-operating period, amortization of production equipment was capitalized to mineral properties until the start of commercial production on January 8, Petaquilla Minerals Ltd. (In United States dollars, except where noted) 9 2010. Depletion of mineral reserves commenced on the date of commercial production and is being charged over the life of the mine using the unit-of-production method.
Expenses
Expenses for the three months ended November 30, 2010, increased by $5,506,392 to
$(9,686,696) compared to $(4,180,304) for the three months ended November 30, 2009. The
increase in expenses is primarily due to:
? An increase of $3,395,667 in debt issuance costs. Debt issuance costs were $3,988,012
for the three months ended November 30, 2010, compared to $592,345 for the three months ended November 30, 2009. This increase was due to the costs associated with the Deutsche Bank Forward Gold Purchase Agreement, which were expensed in
accordance with the Company’s accounting policy.
? An increase of $1,666,264 in exploration and development costs. Exploration and development costs were $2,351,318 for the three months ended November 30, 2010 compared to $685,054 for the three months ended November 30, 2009. This was due to the increased exploration activity on the Oro del Norte property, located near Molejon. Approximately 96% of the exploration and development costs incurred in the current
period relates to work performed on the Oro del Norte property.
? An increase in consulting fees of $192,040. Consulting fees of $248,067 were incurred for the three months ended November 30, 2010 compared to $56,027 for the three months ended November 30, 2009. The increase in consulting fees was due to the closing of the Forward Gold Purchase Agreement with Deutsche Bank during
September 2010.
? An increase of $212,173 in office administration. Office administration costs were $561,906 for the three months ended November 30, 2010 compared to $349,733 for the three months ended November 30, 2009. The increase is due to the fact that, prior to
commercial production, all of Panama Desarrollo De Infraestructuras, S.A. (formerly Petaquilla Hidro S.A.) costs were capitalized to mineral properties.
? An increase of $161,365 in donations and community relations. Donations and community relations were $343,075 for the three month period ended November 30, 2010, compared to $181,710 for the three month period ending November 30, 2009. The increase was due to funding of Fundacion Petaquilla. The increases in expenses were partially offset by:
? A decrease in wages and benefits of $177,296. Wages and benefits were $887,232 for the three month period ending November 30, 2010, compared to $1,064,528 for the period ending November 30, 2009. The decrease is due to less administrative and
management personnel during the period ending November 30, 2010.
Petaquilla Minerals Ltd. (In United States dollars, except where noted) 10
Other income (expense)
During the three months ended November 30, 2010, other expense decreased by $907,679 to $(2,460,822) compared to $(3,368,501) for the three months ended November 30, 2009. The decrease in other expense is largely due to:
? A mark-to-market loss on senior secured notes (“Notes”) and convertible senior secured notes (“Convertible Notes”) of $(2,120,354) resulting from a decrease in the fair value
of the Notes and Convertible Notes due to mark-to-market accounting during the three months ended November 30, 2010 compared to $(3,283,629) for the three months ended November 30, 2009.
The decrease in other expense was partially offset by:
? An increase of $116,434 in foreign exchange loss. The foreign exchange loss for the three months ended November 30, 2010 was $184,725, compared to $68,291 for the threemonths ended November 30, 2009.
? An increase of $123,174 in interest on long-term debt. Interest on long-term debt was $179,786 for the three months ended November 30, 2010, compared to $56,612 for the three months ended November 30, 2009. This increase was due to an increase in interest expense associated with capital lease obligations.
The net loss and comprehensive loss for the three months ended November 30, 2010 was $(7,107,701) or $(0.06) per basic and diluted share compared to a net loss and comprehensive loss of $(7,548,805) or $(0.08) per basic and diluted share for the three months ended November 30, 2009.
OPERATING RESULTS
Gold production for Q2 2011 was 3,064 ounces higher than in Q1 2011. Unit cash cost perQ2 2011 Q1 2011
Gold production – ounces 13,751 10,687
Gold sales – ounces 13,166 12,211
Average realized gold price (per
ounce) $1,346 $1,206
Cash cost per ounce sold (on a coproduct
basis) $759 $843
Q2 2011 Q1 2011
Cost of sales $9,996,879 $10,292,893
Ounces sold 13,166 12,211
Cash cost per ounce sold $759 $843
I agree with you Jal that the warrant holders do not have to wait for the official word to come out on the expiry. The warrant holders may have set up the wall, but I don't believe they are the same sellers that brought the share price down.
How do you like the return of some nice sized bidders?
Depth By Price
Bid
Orders Volume Price
8 47,500 1.16
7 196,200 1.15
9 9,200 1.14
5 7,500 1.13
3 2,100 1.12
Ask
Price Volume Orders
1.17 23,100 10
1.18 24,500 8
1.19 9,800 7
1.20 22,000 8
1.21 13,100 4
The reason Kitco gave for that drop in gold was based on some optimistic comments from Bernanke. The correlation between the subsequent POG and PTQ drops is just as you pointed out LTS. Patience.
Cheers,
In4Money9
Today's close indicated weakness. PTQ did a high volume reversal, and closed back below $1.22 which should have become the new level of support. This is why I like TA. When a stock doesn't follow predictive patterns, something is amiss. I will not expect bullishness to return for another 2 weeks when the technical indicators have a chance to turn positive again. This has zero impact on my longterm predictions for PTQ but will subdue my expectations until the end of January. This might present another opportunity to add more shares.
Cheers,
In4Money9
Three years or $10/share, whichever comes first! How are you feeling?
It will be interesting to see which one of us holds onto our shares the longest.
Just a likelihood that is based on too many years of trading! All of my projections are simply based on my experiences from many trades (good and bad). Everything about this stock screams BUY and HOLD.
Today's trading exhibits a very normal pattern, can see nothing unusual that would indicate a local top. There should be a second buying wave later today that may tip us over $1.40.
The $1.30 mark is significant in that it is precisely double the price of the 65 cents warrants. Warrant holders can purchase their warrants and flip half of their converted shares on the market to cover the purchase cost, and hold their remaining shares for free.
Cheers,
In4Money9
Here is a recent snapshot. I predict a day high of $1.41.
Depth By Price
Bid
Orders Volume Price
11 38,500 1.30
8 10,000 1.29
13 22,400 1.28
10 46,600 1.27
3 7,000 1.26
Ask
Price Volume Orders
1.31 16,400 10
1.32 19,680 15
1.33 47,200 10
1.34 88,650 14
1.35 17,800 6
Perfect timing for a spike in gold prices. I do not want PTQ to gap up this morning if it breaks out today, it would be nice to have a day low of $1.23 at least - no gaps please. A lot of new technical buyers will be in the mix today as the odds of higher prices increased dramatically as of yesterday's kiss with $1.23. Hopefully any new buyers at least look into PTQ's operations and think longer term before selling.
GLTA,
In4Money9