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Hard numbers (ha! right!)
Small 1949.76 (exceeded)
Medium 1994.12 (Done? If so, close enough.)
Large 2116.06 (If medium done(?) then cannot drop below 1954.09. If the medium is NOT done, then cannot drop below 1948.04.)
Thinking about leaving. Will be flat when I do.
So...y'all have fun (Just in case I slip out early.)
Do you watch your UWTI on 5min charts? 3 of 3 up? 5 of 3 up? Pretty RRC!
Edit - Backed off to 60min. Looks like 3 of 3? (or c?)
That is one view...
Another view is that they are VIX driven and there is still a lot of FUD (rightly so)...hence no movement. At this point, it is still undecided if that large degree structure is 123 or and abc. Even if and when it hits projections (2007?), it is such an area that it is 50/50 on the question. There can be no certainty until that large degree structure makes a 4 (area of previous lesser 4?). Actually, there is no certainty until there is a new ATH...but that it not a debate for 5/15 charts.<g>
That is where historical events (charts) have to flavor judgement. What has happened each and every UVXY spike? Is it going to be different this time? Could be...but the odds are....that there is going to be a lot of tequila swilling before we can answer that!
JMHO, of course!
Edit - do a little digging on XIV buying level by institutional buyers.
It is a little presumptuous to draw a RRC for the large degree count.
Pretending it is still working on 4 of medium degree...but could hum along if it were singing 4 of large degree.
Whatever it is - either i and ii of it...
Or it is the ab of abc...anyone else as unsure of it as I am? (Which is why I am still using 5/15min charts to play)
Assuming medium RRC until it does something more than stick a tail outside...
I can't say I am sure that is the '4' of the larger or medium count...or even if we are still working on it.
Some really odd things on some indacators (5min of course)...at key points, it is like there is a push(?). Happens in both directions in key areas...that ???....maximize uncertainty?
Edit...well TeaCake...you are looking at 100+ moves in a day - on a 5min chart. Just what gave it away that you might be looking at something not normal??? Rocket scientist!
Why is that the line in the sand? Fib point? Indicator I do not understand?
From this mornings (post 1943?)...
At some point, we are going to be looking at SPX and wondering if we are looking at a the right shoulder of a year wide HnS (for the traditional TA people) and or wondering if 1867 was/is an abc(A) of an even larger ABC...
That right shoulder would be 2020ish...so I ain't trying to sell either bull or bear since I don't believe in either one til I see it. That is why I am concerned with that 3 of 5 being 2008ish - that is a place to be surprised by a 3 turning out the be a C. I want my signposts for both views...til then, I stick to 5/15 minute charts.
We will see which one starts quacking...<g>
That is one view...
Another view is that we launched from 1867 into the large 5 that will take SPX 2200-2500. (You can see everything in that range. I think my LT chart in stickies has 2268?)
As it relates to XIV - signposts for the 1 of 5waves would be...
Just using that 78% retrace # (20.84) since XIV/SPX agree...
1=7.29ish for 30.17ish...which is ballpark close to where we are
3=11.80 from wherever 2 ends
and 5=1 for 7.29 from end of 4...and we should be at that 43.xx I mentioned.
I like my signpost...early warning system when things screw up (check and balance for the various RRCs). My signposts are where I go, "Check. If it walks like a duck, talks like a duck....I better quit swilling tequila."
Looking 4ish at the moment (allegedly)...which would be the large degree 4 previously mention. Hopefully, a 5 this afternoon/tomorrow to make me feel all warm and fuzzy....
Edit - the '2s' of the medium and large degree were fairly vicious - implies 4s will be tame? Flats?
Either one of you two have any insight on what might be the correct view on XIV?
2014 bounced 65% before dropping again
That would would target 37.75 for this bounce.
Alternate view
2014 retraced 78% of the down move
That would target 43.72 this year.
Alternate would fit nicely with possible target of 2116 for the large degree wave....and would fit nicely with UVXY falling 68% from previous spike high.
Inquiring minds want to know! (...and me too.)
Wish I had your UWTI today.
Not outpacing XIV in % in wiggles...but a second position in something would be nice.
Too comfy with the XIV/UVXY pair.
You dance with who brung ya!
Looks like medium wave slowing down...maybe it will make that 1994 (did I say 1997???). 3 of larger wave 2007...or not!<g> But if it does, it should pull back to previous 4 of lesser degree...aka 1960-1970.
Screw the count! Ride the RRC...<g>
Edit - climbed out of larger degree RRC (drawn from 2103)...good place to pause/flat???
Re-edit - did not break larger RRC - that line will meet R2 30 minutes before close. Likely spot???
Interesting! Looked @ Facebook and the webpage.
I thought I was wanting Bubinga or Cocobola or Bloodwood grips but her basket weave Mesquite is a nice looking grip...and should give a good grip. The spalted grips are pretty...but not sure I would want a pair...<g> too much a traditionalists most likely. Will dig a couple out tonight and think on it...
Do any custom work on rifles stocks?
You got it!
Primary would be we are starting 5 up. Alternate is ABC down 1820 (or the 1730 on that longterm chart).
It looks 50/50 to me but have to give weight to up since that was a 3waver down...so far...but that could change. But a 5waver up would be a lock (almost so the usual - or not!)
Really interesting area - and I was it would move out of it before I get into fall fun!
Ooooo...a pistol-packing mama. I like it. (I am a Texan, too. Started college in Denton - finished elsewhere. Most of family in Llano/San Saba/Cherokee area.)
I have a 1911 Kimber that I would like to have new grips for...hmmm
As a counter to the XIV roadmap, UVXY always dies like a wingshot dove after one of these spikes...but could it put another one together in the near term?
Only the shadow knows...
If it had not meant being a 5 waver down, I would have really liked to have seen 1820 - that would have been 'pretty' - not to mention really lowered the odds that we have to visit it later.
SPX are signposts -SPX means nothing to me other than that...
I have my XIV roadmap that has that second tag of the low. I ain't married to that idea...but we are sleeping together. <g>
Any waver worth their salt can see 6-8 counts around here. Not saying I am worth my salt but even a hack like me can see that many - and too many of them (up and down) have 2000 as an 'interesting' area.
At some point, we are going to be looking at SPX and wondering if we are looking at a the right shoulder of a year wide HnS (for the traditional TA people) and or wondering if 1867 was/is an abc(A) of an even larger ABC...
Plus I am a short-timer so to speak. Out of here 9/9 and won't be doing much more than passing through to change gear til into January.
Tis the season - bowhunting season, redfish/jack season...and their are poor starving guides in several states that are depending on me. <g> It's a dirty job...but someones gotta do it.
"You got this" - in a game with Da Boys?
They surprised me (big!) once this week with that (presumed) delta hedge on OPEX. I am hopeful the pimps were just having a little tizzy to get the Fed to keep the free money rolling...but I am a 'show me' person.
I 'got this' when I can see the 5 larger degree waves on the 60min that could be the '1' of a 5 up. Til then, that 1820 is awful pretty...and I ride the RRCs on 5/15min charts
Sell Yom Kippor - buy Rosh Hashanah <g>
Mazel Tov!
Big assumption that 5wave projections don't fail and have turn into ABC.
But if the don't, best chance is at finish of small degree at 1950ish...but I think the 4s will be flats or pauses.
Break 1914 kills whole thing. 5minute counting is pretty shaken at best...(aka I suck at wiggles).
Looking good ES so fingers crossed on SPX doing same...
I have 3 degrees of waves on 5min charts (or I think I see 3degrees) that support each other.
Smallest degree targets 1953
Mid degree targets 1997
3 of largest degree would target 2007 (5th wave would be 2117...but 'show me' 2000 first.
I like having signposts...ahead of time...
And time will tell...
....and the crowd goes wild!!!
5min RSI(14) trying to get above 70 fir the first time in days!!!
Will it make it??!?!?!?!?
Can the 5min make it over the 200EMA?!?!?!?
I am hyperventilating here!!!
It made it over 1914.56!!!
Other than that...I think the grass has grown .01" today...couldn't find any wet paint to watch....
"In the clearest indication yet that fears of a Chinese economic slowdown could influence U.S. monetary policy, New York Fed President William Dudley said the prospect of a September rate hike "seems less compelling" than it was only weeks ago." (per Yahoo news)
<gasp>
Who would have ever thought such a thing???
Gurus screaming up! Gurus screaming down! (Me, too! One or the other with 5-1 odds on bounce!<g>)
But 'what if'....I definitely love a good flat - as long as I know what it is...
Edit - just to be clear - just having fun. I STILL think I have a XIV roadmap.
Not sure...but this could be done...or not<g> (from 5min chart)
Looked closer...from 1948...
i=1948 1914 - 34
ii=1914 1929 - 15
iii=1929 1873 - 56 (1.618 x 34 = 55)
iv=1873 1890 - 13
v=1890 1867 - 23
Would be iv and v each in 1 5min bar which I do not care for at all...
See if it can clear 1914.60...
Pennant has to break sometime...but which way? <g>
Look at the odds and place your bet...or be like TREND1 and wait on the trend change and follow it...
I am assuming the action yesterday afternoon was the last of the margin monkeys being abused by Da Boyz since it was right on queue?
Anybody have a better theory?
Edit - On 5min - I see (or think I see) i,ii,iii and in iv with the v to go (of the C). That should finish this puppy up???
This time could be different...but I am an odds player...
As I see UVYX, it is a 6 day play (not universally true or every time) most of the time.
It has done it's double dip and I have not seen a triple dip in the time I have played it...or maybe I was just already gone.
It might and possibly will finish the second spike to the local high or a bit higher...but I would have a trailing stop under it already or most probably already out. Greed kills with evil ETFs...
When (not if) the stop is taken out, my pattern would be to walk away and let the gamblers take the chances. Odds are the fast easy money is done for this roundup. The plan to flip should already be in ready...and a rough idea at what level to be looking for the next time. Always another one. Last one 153%, this one 195%(?)(on the first dip!)..a lot of people would consider that good returns for an entire year...let alone 6 days. Like I said - the RIGHT 6 days 2-3 times a year ain't bad.
But that is just me...and not advice in any shape, form or fashion.
Quick and dirty - 5 min SPX seems to target 1852.37...but every target has been eaten alive for the last few days. I would not be surprised at 1820.
Out of here- just a few quick looks since I was out all afternoon.
Have fun!
PS - I see UVXY did it's World Famous Double Dipper move (technically, I suppose I should be calling it double spike - Double Dipper is more fun!)
Could well be - it certainly looks like a 4 today.
I got bored and took off at noon when it started that sideways crap.
Flat so I will hum along with whatever it sings...
Correction - ideal fibs for fresh impulse
1=87
3=1=1975
3=1.618i=2007
5wave impulse 2118
No one needs an announcer. Y'all have fun!
Mindbender - looking at a 5min chart and trying to count it and that 5min chart has an 88 point bounce.
<g> Just wotthehell amd I supposed to do with that???
Edit - Forgot...but the idealized fibs if (IF!) that is the start of a new impulse. 1=1954, 3=1975, 5=2118. Show me - don't tell me!
Edit (again) - RRC from 1879 behaving as it should - and it fibs within itself close enough to 1975. Time will tell...
In my world, a RRC cannot be broken sideways
On a daily, it would look prettier as a 5 waver to 1820ish...but I have that bear problem. Absoluely, nothing wrong with it as an ABC.
Would that be an 'A' of an even larger ABC? Doubt it - too close to bullish season.
So why is an impulse flat? Standard TA consolidation? Waiting on Margin Calls to go out? Everyone out for a Gyros and beer?
(BTW - even a 5 min RRC is boring as hell this morning.)
Acting more like a 4 than a new impulse up to my mind...but that is probably just that bear blood that I bleed. Doesn't matter to a 5/15 player but interesting...
Need a HH to go with that HL
(Really Capt Obvious? I never would have guessed that!)
Edit - I really need to get off the 5/15 charts. <g> It just hit me that I suspected a wave structure off one day - on a 5min chart...what a wiz!
Stopped out. Made 2%. Woo Hoo!
But the 50% XIV bounce was most kind to me. (Not kind enough to make up for missing 195%...but kind...)
Flat at close.
Edit- was up 8% so put a stop out to protect some profit. I figured the streak I am on...lock profit.
Re-edit - when will margin calls go out? I never use it so I am a bit fuzzy. Is it still 3 days? Tomorrow??? Tomorrow afternoon???
That would be the buy point to my thinking...
I am going home flat. I am still not very proud of myself for blowing it the way I did. I will stick to 5/15 min charts for a few days to make sure I am over the 'stupids'.
24.97 to 73.69 for 48.72 (195%)...you don't get a chance like that very often (once a year <g>)...and I p---ed it away...with a roadmap and knowing it was coming.
Out of here 9/9 anyway if not before - redfish and jacks to be harassed.
But not a happy fishbum!
EDIT - With a little luck, SPX may put in a HL today...tomorrow (3rd day for margin monkeys?) could be...INTERESTING!
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=UVXY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p32472163707&a=280773771&r=1440439829441
This is insane. Last year
45% in 5(?) weeks. This year - 54% in 5 days
65% bounce in 2 months. This year 50% bounce in 5 hours
One of those "This is your Market" and "This is your Market on drugs" things...
I cannot trade off the UVXY chart - I trade the turns on the XIV chart. There is a narrow view XIV somewhere down the thread (I think?).
But a narrower UVXY for you...
Needs cleaned up - some scribbling from pre-reverse split...
The Stockcharts get used for scratch pads...some of it still there...
It is a live link. As is the other narrower local link if you dig it out.
Since I mentioned it Friday (and stupidly disregarded my own words in the XIV trade) and UVXY is such an evil sumbidge, let me restate...
All getting stopped out means is that you get a better entry later
True for any 2x/3x etf!
Ride hard but ride smart!
Again - not advice...
Quick glance at some past UVXY spikes
Will retrace ~ 50%ish of spike in quick dip before returning to or making a new high to finish the move...in really really fast action.
Double dipper if you get my meaning...
Feeling nimble today, Oldsman? <G>
As a sideline, I scooped up a gambling load of UWTI .76 since it hit your .77 target and my 38.80 WTIC target....should be a 4 of 5 somewhere around for a quick hitter (hopefully)....
Not advice by any means...just data
153% is the largest UVXY spike.
Usually double hits in the big moves.
ALWAYS falls 50% minimum - usually 68% from any high involving 30% or greater spike (declining asset - time function on option base)
Did I post a UVXY chart with all that here?
Edit - if not, I have one with all the verticals and % moves up and down for something like 3 years.
Agree. Could/should ABC to 1820 (if not 1729 - fib for move from 1074)(I can hum along with 1820).
I think we need one more dip. 3 done 4 in progress 5 to come...and that will be the 'A'????
Regardless...3 days to kill margin monkeys?
Is this the '4' or the '4 of C' ('4 of C' which could be an even larger 'A')
I need to shake it off and get going instead of pouting....(^$#&^$&^!!!!)
LOL!!
Bunghole!
But thanks for for the cheese anyway...even if I did blow coffee all over my screen.
Thanks. I needed that...<g>