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I'm shorting the heck out of this thing. I'm not a permabear or anything, but without the financial sector this market will not move much higher. Options exp. is holding the market right here, and I think next week will be different
I hope so: that's how I'm positioned for now. I'm done for today. The next few days should give us a better picture.
Agreed Duchamp! Very sticky right there. That's right at the 55 Moving ave. Don't know if much happens today and with quad witching tomorrow - who knows what will happen. I'm guessing bulls win this week as options week is usually bullish, and then a new storm brews next week. The week after options exp. I think has been mostly bearish.
you might be right 2 bit, but so far we been allowed to make $$ playing this trading range from 1040 to 1130. I'm sticking to that theory unless I see it break above 1130 with volume expansion. I don't see that happening. Last time we stalled at this area for 7 days and then Wham: down she went. I do concede however, that some of the eco numbers are improving and the market looks like it would like to shoot through 1130 just to fool more people, but I doubt it would hold. There also seems to be many gaps to be filled down below. Just my opinions, though
It's time to think about getting short. This rally should come to an end soon. I have a doji reversal on my spx chart from Tuesday, and yesterday the markets showed it's first sign of weakness with a lower high and a lower low. Take a look a the link below. This lady is good. Been following her for a while. Fedex stock is getting hit this morning as well.
Good trading to all
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3387040&cmd=show[s169746561]&disp=O
Good Morning All! What a roller coaster, huh? Great job to anyone that took long profits over the last day or two. I failed to jump in on that rally. Just short covering IMO, but a great trade opportunity. I'm still holding a couple of small shorts(painfully), and trying not to get shaken out. I'm having trouble posting my charts via Fidelty, but there is a nice head and shoulder pattern within a larger head and shoulder pattern that has developed. Here is the link from another chartist seeing as I can't figure out how to get my chart here. My take is that there could be a little more room to the upside just to lure in some more bulls and then down she goes.
http://s657.photobucket.com/albums/uu293/bigelkhorn/dleo.png
Nice Desert! Profits are Profits. Are you trading options on TZA/TNA or the etf itself? I've wanted to trade those, but I always like to paper trade something for a while until I get used to how it moves
thanks for the input...my theory is that we've tested that 1040 level twice within just a couple of days and have so far established lower highs. If we attack that level again without any substantial bounce then I think we just might break through. Third time's a charm so they say. Close below 1040 and I'll hang on for the ride for a retest of 1010....Puts are up nicely so far. Tons of economic data over the next few days
m miller what are you targeting for profit taking? Just curious
vix is breaking to the upside after having time to reset. looking good
added to my shorts as well at 1053. It's not the bounce that I was hoping, but the market doesn't seem to want to go past 1055
good call mr newman
FWIW: we bounced off of 1040 again, but unlike Friday we are not rallying very hard. This is a weak bounce and indicates the market wants to move lower sooner than later. We are currently trapped in a rising wedge and should break down soon. Be careful if you are long. Unless your long gold. I keep waiting for GLD to pullback, but sure looks like it wants to try and breakout. Seems toppy at these levels though....something is happening out there. Fear trade maybe? Vix just bounced off support
bridgeofsighs...thanks for pointing out the VIX. I haven't looked at it for a couple of days. I agree a bigger move could be coming, and on light volume days, they can be extreme. Maybe I'll just take partial profits on my puts.
Thanks
bullish divergence showing up on my extended hours charts. We'll see how long it takes to play out this morning. Any substantial bounce should be shorted. That 1063/1065 level that I mentioned on Friday turned out to be a great shorting opportunity...although I don't expect that type of bounce this time. But, you never know for sure......trust the charts and trade carefully
looking to close out some qqqq puts for some nice profits this morning as we test the 1040 level once again....this market really wants to go lower, but the volume is not there yet to do so
we're pretty overbought right here at these levels and looking to close right those resistance areas I mentioned earlier
smart...do you think aapl will hit 220 before it makes that turn though? Scale back your chart to like a 4 yr weekly. It's already broken down through the 21 MA and looks like it wants to tag the 55 MA at around 220. Let me know what you think.
I agree with you 2-bit...strong buy signal for today. Nice call. I still think it will be short lived. That gap you mentioned is my next target to add short if we get there. That's why I went for Oct. puts so I have more time for it to play out. Hope you made some good coin today! Nice job
aapl and GS not really participating in today's rally spells trouble
adding qqqq oct. 44 puts @ 1.69
divergence completed
potential bearish divergence showing on the 15 min chart, but the formation is not quite complete....if and when it happens, then short
Half days of work right before the weekend are great. Bulls seem to be having their dead cat bounce. However, we are at big resistance at the 1063/1065 area, and this a great place to start adding more shorts. 2-bit...you're kicking booty today.....congrats
according to my trend lines it is still down and another great opportunity to add shorts. That's what I call exciting. I actually wouldn't mind a substantial up day to redeploy more cash. Don't be fooled by a one or two day bounce in a down trend. I'm prepared to cover if necessary, but so far that hasn't happened. Just be nimble.
The bears win again...this is just like the last couple of selloffs where there was strength early on and then selling takes over. The trend is still down and there is not a buy signal on the daily charts....don't fight the trend. Buy side divergence has occurred on the 30 min. charts over the past couple of days, but has not happened on the daily which should override the 30 min chart. My charts say a bounce is remotely possible but short lived. Remember, yesterday we closed below 1050 on s&p which extends the trend of lower highs and lower lows on a closing basis. More lows to come. When is the real question. Now? Or should we stay afloat until Labor Day. Either way if you are short then you are being rewarded and will probably see even greater returns in Sept. Good Luck to all...it's getting exciting
hey desert the gld spike may not mean anything, but sometimes they can forecast. It could mean that it wants to test the highs...aka people fleeing to gold.
Agreed...this has me feeling like it's being held up until the next wave of bad news(possibly GDP). Definitely have to either be nimble or patient....I'm going with patient and expecting more down. 2 bit posted an upside target which I think would be the end of this bounce, but I'm not so sure that we even get there. I've monitored 2 bit's targets before, and he is usually pretty accurate though this bounce looks weak. Not sure if I'd be much use as an asst. moderator because I'm always working and rarely post. Just have some time off right now though. But let me know if you're in a bind
phantom spike on gld...
just my opinion, but the long game won't last too long. The 30 min indicators are looking overbought and will need to reset soon. That should give a fair chance of going long for a very short term trade....hope ur feeling better desert.
Good morning 2bit...what are you targeting on the upside? I'm skeptical to being long in front of tomorrow's GDP.
Thanks
SOMX.....if you must go long, take a look. It could be worth your while. The base has formed and lots of upside available
Nice job for those that went long yesterday morning. My gut told me to cover my shorts and then wait for another entry point, but I do better with swing trades rather than day trades. This oversold rally shouldn't have much strength behind it so be careful. I'm using it to add more shorts because we will revisit yesterday's lows soon. As for the relief rally, 1065-1067 should be a target for the bulls which would fill the gap down from the 24th. Jobless claims might beg to differ, though.
Good Luck!!
Durable goods report at 8:30 and and new home sales at 10 am. Should make for some excitement...or they could negate each other. Anyone thinking a break of 1040 comes today?
Thanks Desert...and nice job on the new board. I agree that the bears are back. we might endure a little intraday pain, possible move to 1065, but selling should continue from there. Just an observation: we were a little oversold at the time we had the may 6th flash crash, which was our warning signal. Things will get very interesting if we break the downside of Denmo's channel. Looks like we might get a slow and steady grind to the downside instead of some silly crash. Hopefully we all make money along the way.
Denmo, your chart in post 48 says it all. Channeling down for now....stay short
Hi everyone, just done with work for the day and it looks like the big boys are trying to prop this market up before more downside. Just my gut feeling. I'm holding my shorts in anticipation of much more downside to come over the next few weeks. It looks like the up moves are fairly weak and the down move are happening fast. I'm targeting 1010 on the s&p for initial profit taking, but I think we just might see a little more. I enjoy all of your posts and comments by the way. I post rarely because of work but always keeping an eye on things. Selling off again into the close as I type.
Good morning all, looks like a weak gap at the open that might give the bulls a little room to run this week. I do mean little. Uptrend was broke on Aug 11. we are now in a downtrend that could become very powerful once the big traders come back after labor day. I will be adding puts this week on up days in anticipation of this. Volume has been light on up days and heavier on down days. To me, that says it all. Any thoughts on Gold/GLD?
Thanks
Actually a few thousand could do wonders for their website. But what they need are results and good headlines. Most mining stocks recently got crushed and MMG was not spared. However, the selling pressure has subsided and it seems to have support at .60 as of now. But it needs more buyers. Roughly 7 or 8 institutions bought sometime this year. Sprott, Bank of America, and UBS to list a few. They didn't buy much, but bought nonetheless. By the way, there are only 55 million shares outstanding and that is not why the stock recently got crushed. I'm a buyer, but with a stop price of .59
The market has me wondering the same. If the Euro contagion doesn't get under control soon then nothing would be a hold. Right now we're still in correction territory and might continue a little more. Whether to hold this one or not depends on your time frame and risk appetite. Personally, I'm down on this one and should have cut my losses already. But once the overall market finds support, MMG will too.....just might have to wait a while. On a 5 year weekly chart, this is way oversold but also right at it's final support area.