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Anavex has never admitted that a trial failed, and they never will. Disingenuous. For as long as this company stays solvent, it will only have trial successes, with endpoints met.
i sold again.....F Pan and the Miners. will buy at 9
1. The company has been fooling around with "blarcasemine" for a dozen years on 3 continents. If it was any good, we would know by now. Some here would argue a drug needs 15 years, 20 years 25 years, 30 years to find out if a drug is any good. Half a century
2. People here are emotionally unstable and must believe that if there is any teeny tiny dicey benefit the trials might equivocally show,, the drug will be approved due to acute need, despite the fact that Big Pharma has dozens of competing candidates and 1000X the political pull, and they too are attempting to show teeny tiny dicey effectiveness in their own equivocal trials.
3. If Missling announced the drug was no good, half the investors here would still think it is good.
We are already in a bear market, ignore the Big 7, the generals are always the last to go.....but it has been mild to date and will pick up steam in the weeks and months ahead. Ignore Jerome Powell the Gov.com Liars. They said the same thing, i.e. the economy is humming, it is a brave new world, in 1929 and year 2000, at the very tippy tops. Anavex will be nothing but an inkspot in 18 months. Just like thousands of other stocks.
BUDDING BURSTING BUBBLES (November 12, 2023): Investors are easily impressed by large percentage moves, while barely noticing important asset behavior. Therefore, since the total losses so far for major U.S. large-cap equity indices including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and QQQ have been modest so far, most people aren't concerned about whether or not we are in a primary bear market. The total declines overall are generally less than 10% from their peaks in November 2021 or early January 2022. U.S. real estate overall also has mostly single-digit percentage declines. Therefore, the fact that most of the above and other indices have experienced numerous lower highs over the past two years isn't appreciated even with the bearish implications of this activity in prior decades. Small- and mid-cap U.S. equity indices and funds have almost all suffered larger percentage losses, but hardly anyone pays attention to the Russell 2000 and similar benchmarks.
Therefore, even though the U.S. equity bear market is roughly half over timewise, and is probably entering its most dangerous downside phases, most investors are blissfully complacent. This is evident from VIX closing at 14.17 on Friday, November 10, 2023, an astonishingly low level two years into a bear market. Hardly anyone thinks they need protection or hedging against potential upcoming losses. Boglehead myths are widely prevalent with many such investors convinced that they have a divine right to come out ahead in the long run no matter how overvalued the assets are which they own. For now let the grown up children play.
Let the children play, for now. This is all coming to a close. This year for sure, the bear will start to take down these ridiculous all time high valuations, with nothing to support them. Now at or close to the tippy top, looking down is quite a drop. "They only learn who suffer." - Aristophanes.
there is no question whatsoever.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/02/is-bureau-labor-statistics-cooking-books-joe-biden/
all of which is why i am buying paas.
because right now, looking at the 2 or 3 year charts, the miners are clearly in a bear market, while the fantasy world of the funds and tutes have pushed the equities into a continuous bull market for years now, under the establishment narratives that lets you pay a PE of 30 or 40 or 50 ,for an S and P stock...
when i first got involved in the gold and gold mining sector the year was 2001. I stumbled out of the tech sector a winner, which was in a freefall...like all stocks. Solid mining stocks, which had been 13 bucks a share, were selling at 2 or 3 bucks. They were despised as gold went below 300 bucks an ounce. People had lost all or most of their money in the wild ponzi mania of the late 1990s which was in the process of bursting...........and so disillusioned, some of them, like me, went into the miners....which had been written off. Are we needing this sort of thing before the miners will be bought by the public and funds?
the bottom line here is that the central planners, with their endless government reports on employment or the economy, can crush the gold miners with their dicey press releases. It takes a genuine collapse of the stock market, for investors to lose faith in the governments endless predictions and largely dishonest economic reports. ..These ponzis can go on for a very long time. Even if for instance, the u.s. gov requires a trillion to service the debt, just to stay level, the investors don't care....as long as the FED and the dc agencies issue reports saying everything looks pretty good, the stock market will go up..............It takes something far more jolting, outside the system, to cause investors to lose their appetites for general equities.
PAAS, another sector bell weather, silver and gold producer, has been a terrible thing to own the past year or two. Seeking Alpha gives it a Sell rating, something you don't often see from their Quant rating system. has a 5 billion market cap, average financials and had a terrible last quarter and the current year looks bad as well, where once again, they will make no money. Mining is a very tough business to make money
A link I posted, suggested that there is simply no fresh money coming into the sector to buy the shares of the miners, and that essentially, the same jello is being pushed around the same old plate. In short nobody cares about the miners, and that mining is a very tough business, and for all these market caps in the billions or tens of billions of dollars, they do not make much money, and most make virtually none. They also commented that young people have no regard for gold in the West, which is true. Bitcoin is their near exclusive choice. These are serious arguments. Until there is a true wipeout of the existing financial regime in the west, there could be hard sledding. Today's report from dept of labor suggests to the public that the fed and the central planners are very capably handling the economy, and the debt service will be accomplished.
This is all nonsense but the market loves their message, the S and P up huge, with its tech behemoths.
AEM down 2.5 bucks suggests the Jello players in that stock are pushing it away, a bad sign for the sector which looks poised to invade old lows of the past year.
wrong again, sold half my shares in the premarket and then dumped on the open. My take from the labor report, which is fraudulent, is that short term the central planners can say anything to keep the bull case for general equities intact. All of these economic reports are semi fraudulent. Their argument is that everything is fine, the economy is purring, and the FED is the master of the universe of the united states of Israel, etc.....what to do.
What about Google, what about Microsoft? Both companies are quite serious about getting a platform drug to move into biotech, an all around platform drug that will let them leverage their power, and both have said they are reviewing CNS companies. Avxl is very very cheap. People have said some massive companies outside of the biotech space are in contact with anavex. These are companies that have expressly and recently said they need to move away from software and into biotech. Review the comments of both boards of directors. Google and MSFT can buy and sell merck in a new york minute and they are reviewing this area of science acutely.
"gold stocks are cheap and hated" This article says it all. I have been running my own money in the stock market since the year 1989...(I was first in the market october 14, 1989, precisely 5 days before the infamous black monday. I owned one stock, 5 grand worth, it was called Apple. I sold, like a noobie....I was around 27 as I recall.
I have made a ton of money in the market since then, and all based on a single rule: buy when something is obviously of great value (as uranium was a year ago), but is absolutely hated.
and with the stock market came the beautiful and funny and frolicking girlfriends, so many. I remember one, a strawberry blonde, Susan, *(not Suzanne, another pure blonde another model, this one a brick sheathouse...) I was with the friday before that Black Monday, a model, as so many had modeling portfolios these curvey women would show you half drunk about 1 a.m....I was curious why the Nazdaq and my first stock ever was getting crushed that friday afternoon..........but that is another story...
as I was a young trial lawyer, had my own trial practice, the clients so wonderful and downtrodden and in danger, some of which they caused to themselves....anyway
It is okay to be a little early, in order to make 400 to 500 percent gain and change your entire life. Godl is emerging for what will be seen in hindsight as a 13 year bear market. The gold stocks will get with the program over time, and then far outshine.
https://thedailygold.com/gold-stocks-are-cheap-and-hated/
remember guys, when bull markets are given birth, they are boring. that is not the way it works....almost tiny steps, despite news that should provide their companion equities large leaps, but they only get tiny advances at first. 4 steps forward, 3 back, so maddening.....this is the way it was with the birth of the recent bull market in uranium, which I followed closely but missed completely...despite the fundamentals......o well. as the bull market progresses, it far far surpasses even its most ardent believer's expectations, and during the final 20 percent of the market, which will be years into the future for gold, ...it goes absolutely ballistic. The last time gold started a bull market in truth was around 2001, i remember it well. There was what was called the 3 dollar rule, well known at the time. Gold could never advance more than 3 dollars in a single day....and then finally after about a year into the bull market, gold started putting in 4 dollar up days, then 5 (with retreat days for sure), and so on...as gold climbed from 265 bucks to 1000...and then the great financial crisis occurred, gold in a panic 8 month down move bottomed at 680,...and then it began its climb higher topping out in the top week at 1925 or so............that topping occurred in 2011, and believe it or not, we have been in a bear market ever since...now ready to push to serious highs...but it will and is beginning slowly. and the gold miners are absolutely hated, despised...You couldn't get a better buy since bitcoin came into existence, then buying the GDX right now. ...imho....miners are the best buy easily in 23 years and possibly since the mid 1970s.....
I want my money back George. Please give us all another 500 predictions that are not derelictions. Use your powers to heal the torn flowers, of Anavex and all of us here on this board. Please a few predictions to hoist this share price up to double digits. Can you tell us that it will be 9 by May 1st, a 50% gain. I can take that pain. How about by year end? Please give us a prediction that it will be 12 bucks. As for me, I will not object if your prediction is even higher, like 14 bucks per share, a massive gain from 6 bucks. If you can make it 18 bucks, that is a mere 200 percent which we would all much appreciate it George, ...whatever you say and do and predict, I will sleep better. Thank you sincerely George for all you do. (and at no charge, a bargain)
what do you mean by conspiracy theorist, which you mention a couple times including the adjective whacko? What is a conspiracy theorist? please provide a working definition because a lot of people use this relatively new expression in america, on this board. TIA.
Because when I was a child age 3 my mother always said, Use Your Words.....but I notice now this is an expression which evidently is a summary type thing for specific words but it is nowhere spell out what these words are.
Is it a rhetorical device? Is it content based, and if you feel so, how is it content based?
A lot of people in america now use this, but the mainstream media, a purveyor of the expression never spell it out for the cable tv watchers. It is really a vogue thing for the cable tv people. People on MTV music awards love it, CNN love to use it, the Hollywood Oscar winners use it, the Global Awards Winners use it............but nobody says what it is, Sam I Am.
Does using it give you superpowers? Does it let you feel vogue when you use it? An insult, a compliment? Sam I Am, please spell it out for those of us who do not watch much cable tv....TIA
15 ish may show, in 5 years from now when Barrick cracks 100 bucks, to have been the bottom of a huge 5+ year bull market in the now hated gold miners. .....boasting a 7 percent dividend and wild capital gains. The world is gonna change, there is no question about that. The financial markets are living in the past. As if they can defy the debt and the change that must ensue. This guy sees the future.
i bought around another 25,000 shares of barrick this a.m.....here is a nice article on why is it much cheaper than AEM....
https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2022/07/national-debt-could-be-over-twice-the-size-of-the-economy-in-just-30-years
--------------
Dividends Analysis
Barrick Gold Vs. Agnico Eagle Mines: Only One Of These Is A Strong Buy
Dec. 23, 2023 7:15 AM ETBarrick Gold Corporation (GOLD) Stock, AEM Stock, ABX:CA Stock, AEM:CA StockGDX, NEM, NGT:CA129 Comments
Samuel Smith profile picture
Samuel Smith
Investing Group Leader
About this article
Ticker
Analyst rating
STRONG BUY
Price at publication
$18.31
Last price
$15.68
Change since publication
-14.39%
S&P 500 change since publication
3.44%
Days since publication
39
Summary
Barrick Gold and Agnico Eagle Mines are leading gold miners with strong balance sheets and diversified asset portfolios.
While we are bullish on the long-term outlook for gold, we think only one of these miners is a Strong Buy at the moment.
We compare them side-by-side and offer our take on which is the better buy right now.
I am Samuel Smith, Vice President of Leonberg Capital. I lead the investing group High Yield Investor where we do our best to find the right balance between safety, growth, yield, and value.
Stack of gold bars
brightstars
Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:GOLD) and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (NYSE:AEM) are leading blue-chip gold miners (GDX) with decent dividends and promising growth profiles alongside high-quality asset portfolios and strong balance sheets. In this article, we will compare them side by side and offer our take on which one is a Strong Buy right now.
GOLD Stock Vs. AEM Stock: Asset Portfolios
Agnico Eagle is the third-largest gold miner in the world, with a strong presence in low geopolitical risk geographies such as Canada, Mexico, Finland, and Australia. The company's portfolio includes five main assets: Detour Lake, Canadian Malartic, Meadowbank, Meliadine, and Fosterville. These mines contribute significantly to Agnico's annual production of 3.1 million ounces of gold, along with minor production of copper, zinc, and silver. That being said, the company's overall portfolio contains both low-cost and higher-cost mines, resulting in an average all-in-sustaining cost (AISC) of USD $1,100 per ounce in 2022.
AEM's portfolio growth has been notable over the years, expanding from one operating mine in 2008 to 11 by 2022, including the addition of high-grade, low-cost mines through its recent merger with Kirkland Lake Gold. However, recently, the company's return on invested capital has fallen below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating challenges in generating sustainable economic returns. Agnico's strategic focus on the Abitibi region, along with developments like Hope Bay and Hammond Reef projects, aims to increase production, but cost management and capital efficiency remain critical for long-term success.
Meanwhile, Barrick Gold ranks one spot ahead of AEM as the world's second-largest gold miner, with operations in more geographically diverse and geopolitically risky regions, including the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. The acquisition of Randgold in 2019 and the formation of Nevada Gold Mines ("NGM") in a joint venture with Newmont (NEM) were significant steps in its expansion and increased focus on what it calls "tier 1" mines in a strong move to improve production quality and efficiency. NGM exemplifies the company's emphasis on cost reduction through its operational synergies. However, despite the quality of its assets, GOLD's significant presence in higher geopolitical risk areas poses lingering risks to the company's bottom line despite its efforts to adhere to high environmental standards and contribute to local communities at all of its operations.
Like AEM, GOLD's asset base is diversified across both low-cost and higher-cost mines, leading to an average AISC of USD $1,200 per ounce in 2022. Barrick's growth prospects include expanding production at the NGM joint venture, Pueblo Viejo mine, and Lumwana copper mine, with potential developments like Fourmile and Reko Diq promising substantial increases in production (including a large increase in copper production) in the years to come.
Despite their diversified portfolios, both companies face similar challenges in generating returns above their cost of capital. Agnico Eagle's focus on lower-risk areas is a strategic advantage, but its portfolio's cost structure and return metrics suggest a need for improved efficiency. Barrick's diversified global presence, coupled with strategic joint ventures like NGM, highlights its scale and operational synergies. However, Barrick also grapples with balancing its portfolio's costs and maximizing returns on invested capital while also dealing with higher geopolitical risks.
Both companies are focusing on optimizing existing operations and expanding through strategic organic projects whenever possible instead of pursuing expensive acquisitions such as their peer Newmont recently did through its acquisition of Newcrest. Agnico Eagle's attention to the Abitibi region and its expansion through mergers and acquisitions highlight its growth-oriented approach. In contrast, Barrick's emphasis on organic growth, as seen in developments like Fourmile and Reko Diq, suggests a long-term view aimed at leveraging existing infrastructure and maximizing resource potential.
GOLD Stock Vs. AEM Stock: Balance Sheets
Both Barrick Gold and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited have solid balance sheets. Barrick Gold has a strong liquidity profile (with billions of dollars in cash and undrawn liquidity on its credit line), an investment-grade credit rating, and basically zero net debt. Moreover, it also consistently generates free cash flow from its operations, giving it a steady stream of cash combined with existing balance sheet liquidity to pay a nice dividend to shareholders, buy back shares opportunistically, and also be positioned to make other opportunistic growth investments that align with its overall corporate strategy and long-term vision.
Agnico Eagle Mines also has a strong balance sheet with a very manageable amount of debt and also has plenty of liquidity and consistently generates free cash flow. Moreover, its less geopolitical risk than Barrick puts less potential stress on its balance sheet should a worst-case scenario play out for either company.
As the chart below shows, GOLD has come a long way in reducing its debt burden over the years whereas AEM has had consistently low debt levels.
Chart
Data by YCharts
GOLD Stock Vs. AEM Stock: Growth Profiles
Barrick Gold plans to double its copper production by the end of the decade and increase it further to an estimated 1 billion pounds or 450,000 tonnes per annum by 2031. The Reko Diq project in Pakistan and the Lumwana Super Pit Expansion are two critical projects that will help achieve this growth. When at full production, Reko Diq is expected to be among the world's top 10 copper mines, while the Lumwana Super Pit Expansion is expected to deliver up to 240,000 tonnes of copper per year.
Barrick's gold growth initiatives are expected to increase the company's production by around 30% to 6.8 million gold-equivalent ounces by 2031. The company is also exploring the high-grade opportunity at Horsham in the Carlin District and multi-million-ounce potential growth opportunities at Turquoise Ridge.
Agnico Eagle aims to expand its mill at Detour beyond 28Mtpa and conduct a study for an underground component, combining to potentially contribute around 300koz pa to production. Meanwhile, the Canadian Malartic Complex is progressing with the Odyssey development and evaluating exploration opportunities. Agnico Eagle has partnered with Teck Resources in a 50/50 joint venture for the San Nicolás copper-zinc project in Zacatecas, Mexico. The San Nicolás project is one of the largest undeveloped volcanic-hosted massive sulfide deposits globally and is expected to produce 63 thousand tonnes per annum of copper and 147 ktpa of zinc in concentrate over its initial five years.
In addition to both GOLD's and AEM's production growth initiatives, we are bullish on the long-term outlook for both copper and gold prices. We expect factors such as accelerating central bank purchases of gold, escalating geopolitical tensions, and the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts next year to drive gold prices meaningfully higher. Moreover, Goldman Sachs has predicted a significant jump in copper prices in the coming years due to an existing supply deficit and strong anticipated demand growth, particularly from electrification and electric vehicle growth.
Combining strong production volume growth potential with favorable price outlooks for the underlying metals produced gives both businesses a substantial long-term growth outlook. Production costs will also have a significant impact on profitability levels, though increased robotics and artificial intelligence technologies should help provide some deflationary relief on that side of the profitability equation as well (and some already is via increased digitization of mining operations and the growing use of autonomous trucks at some mining sites), though it may be several years before any noticeable impact is felt.
GOLD Stock Vs. AEM Stock: Valuations
On a head-to-head basis, GOLD is more attractively priced than AEM. GOLD's Price to Net Asset Value (P/NAV) ratio stands at 1.04x, indicating that its stock is trading near its net asset value. In contrast, AEM's P/NAV ratio is significantly higher at 1.48x, indicating that its stock is priced at a premium relative to its net assets.
On an EV/EBITDA basis, GOLD is trading at just 6.05x, which is significantly lower than AEM's 8.19x. This lower ratio for GOLD implies a more attractive valuation in terms of operational earnings. Furthermore, GOLD's NTM Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.78x is substantially lower than AEM's 28.51x, which further highlights that investors are paying a higher price for AEM's earnings compared to GOLD's. In terms of free cash flow generation, the Price to Free Cash Flow (P/FCF) ratio for GOLD is 20.42x, compared to AEM's higher 24.91x, further reinforcing the narrative that GOLD is cheaper than AEM.
Both offer pretty attractive dividend yields by gold mining industry standards (north of 2%), with AEM paying out a stable quarterly dividend that has grown over time:
Chart
Data by YCharts
Meanwhile, GOLD has a variable rate dividend payout policy based on the amount of cash on hand at the end of each quarter. While not as attractive as a fixed policy like AEM's, GOLD's policy gives it much more capital allocation flexibility and also enables management to buy back stock aggressively whenever it is opportunistic to do so without compromising its balance sheet strength. Given the nature of the mining industry, we think that GOLD's dividend policy actually makes more sense.
After comparing them across the spectrum of major valuation metrics, we can confidently conclude that GOLD stock is far less expensive than AEM at the moment, and we also think that its dividend/buyback/capital allocation policy makes more sense for the gold mining business model than AEM's does.
GOLD Stocks Vs. AEM Stock: Investor Takeaway
Both GOLD and AEM are blue-chip stocks, and - given our bullish long-term outlook on gold and copper - we think both are reasonable, if not attractive, investments right now. While AEM has the edge in terms of lower geopolitical risk in its locations, GOLD is larger, has a stronger balance sheet at the moment, and also has more promising growth potential in copper.
Last but not least, GOLD's stock price is far cheaper than AEM's. As a result, we rate Barrick Gold Corporation a Strong Buy and rate Agnico Eagle Mines Limited a Buy.
This article was written by
Samuel Smith profile picture
Samuel Smith
28.84K Followers
Samuel Smith is Vice President of Leonberg Capital,
don't sell, add. This little rangebound thing is coming to an end. they always do. this stock is a double in 1 year to 18 months.
All you need to do is look at the big picture, which is U.S. debt now going parabolic. while they have indeed cut liquidity, on the fiscal side we are going in debt by trillions per year due to government spending.......and it will get far worse than any of these projections which are horrendous already....
remember, we are now like a new born argentina where today they have 200 percent annual inflation. we will catch up.
https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2022/07/national-debt-could-be-over-twice-the-size-of-the-economy-in-just-30-years
rossy beaty interview yesterday, pounding the table... he says this bull is very soon to kick off, that it must. He will not always be wrong....
Pierre Lassonde in this and more recent interviews says the miners are the most pricing in his lifetime.
this will change.
when the POG breaks upwards which should be any day now, people will start to see how much money gold companies can make. Investors will start to do some calculations about how much barrack for instance, will make with POG at 2500, with the divi being raised....Bull Markets tend to turn slowly from Bear, and the miners are as cheap as they have ever been since the mid 1970s, cheaper than even year 2000/2001. We are very close now.
barrack is cheapest by far of the 3 majors, all of which will perform extremely well the next 5 years. This stock reminds me of X, u.,s. steel that languished around 22 bucks for about 3 years and then boom, in about 8 months it exploded to 48 and was bought out....
The OK corral, what a shootout last night. Headlocks all around and punches in bunches on this board. Bas, tell me where I can go to get paid by the CABAL since everybody else is except you. I want my money. And whoda thought with a stock going from 6 to 600 smackers between now and year end. Its stunning accomplishments and trial successes. When will we be on the cover of Time and Newsweek, two great media publications of truth and honesty for the little people like she said.
Joe you are a newbie and believe in the narrative. You have lost so much and will add to your losses....jessie livermore had a catagory he called "suckers." ...and the kicker he explained is that you cannot teach a sucker....they insist the hook being set, on being suckers. all the elderly longs this board
can either of your elaborate on your phrase "conspiracy theory?" What is that all about? Do you two mean that you don't think the other's argument is very strong? How do you advance you positions by the use of the phrase conspiracy theory? Is there something more to this?
The avxl stock has gone from 30 to 6 during a time when the general stock market has climbed dramatically, carrying a lot of trash companies and companies with no earnings to historically extremely high prices. The current market valuation methods are all of them, showing the stocks have very rich ratios and PEs. Some of the highest in history (3rd or 4th highest).
But what do either of you mean by your respective use of the phrase conspiracy theory? What does that mean? tia.
bought the open this a.m heavy...i agree with you..
Our dear Anavex Blesser George.
Ode to George, the Shaman and God Blesser,,,
(**to be recited to the tune of the "Boogey Woogie Bugle Boy of Company B")
,,,
Where's our Boogie Woogie Bugle Boy of Company Anavex?
Predicting the future with a Shaman's Hex.
Foretelling us tales that only you divine
with your shiny boogie bugle
jammed up your hind
[He's a God Bless Predictor,
a Great News wizard
from his toes to his gizzard
A stock market Father
He's the whole enchilada!
(but what does he gotta?
.....ding bippity bodda).]
He's a message board Shaman
posting news like a Laman
four legs with that head
Like the Grateful Dead.
He's out of a movie,
like an rect-al cyst
Much GREAT NEW COMING....,
he's an Exorcist
ten thousand posts of wisdom and honor
ten thousand god blesses
like a Mad Hatter Gonorr-.....
Reaha Boy, O give us the News.
Your angelic trumpet
(I can't take no blues)
So Georgie Boy don't stay away,
Demon's got Anavex in its sway.
So give us a prediction
of good news today,
with a few God Blesses
then be on your way
To the Ihub Board with your things to say
As they wait for you almost every day.
Your wisdom God Blessed
(You got something to say!
Georgie you're a priest,
A Necromancer,
a stock market dancer.
giving us spells,
making us a trancer
did it ever occur to you that management knows that the drug has no chance of approval and once that losing scenario starts to play out the ponzi is over and the stock will sink to a dollar? Please, give management a little credit. They know the score.... They have been pushing this thing for 12 years and counting. You gonna wait another dozen years before you start reading the memo?
here is Chris:
the last thing buggin me: there are several guys who I respect as regards the miners and they are all devilishly bearish right now on the sector, due purely to historical analogies. They love gold but are market timers......1. Stephen Jon Kaplin, 2. Jordan roy bryne, and 3. Chris Vermeulin........and I usually find myself in agreement with them, or at least thoughtfully listening to them. All 3 are strongly now of the opinion that gold will collapse essentially with the equity markets. Gold and the minors, always no exceptions, get crushed with the general equity markets when there is a recession. Which is surely coming ...
here is vermeulin,..
these 3 are smart and the odds favor they are probably correct. I agree with them...
What is the value of information if one is dogmatic?
https://www.kitco.com/news/video/2024-01-11/expect-volatile-market-correction-in-2024-vermeulen
another negative. The POG was much lower before the fed a couple months ago?, said they would be proactive and raise raise consistently in the coming new year....gold was around 1980 or thereabouts. ....then on that PR gold went up around 27 bucks, and the miners shot up dramatically. .....Most recedntly the fed ahs walked that announcement back on account of clamied strength in the economuy..........so we see here the fed doing what it does best, price fixing with its nonsense PRs to keep the ponzi confidence game going, and gold at least contained.......this zig zagged higher move, with many zags will continue.....
Most say around a 50 50- chance of a recession this year, but they will continue to rig the numbers.......... to keep the inflated asset poinzi in their direction. but can they?
what bothers me, is that the stocks are so cheap. Typically they lead by leaping and jumping higher than the POG, but now, they must be expecting a gold dump....what is the phrase when you give human emotions to inanimate things? The gold stocks will have the last laugh, the question is are they foreseeing this fake tech/general market hype bs, or are they foreseeing perhaps the impossibility of recession avoidance, or both................punt.
dumped everything the past 2 hours.....o well. good luck to you. I am a reverse barometer it seems.
silver down big, gold sliding with no push.; the longer spot sits around 2024, the greater the odds of a breakdown. the fed language is harsh for gold owners, the most recent lies..............who knows.
gld daily chart looks promising. a month ago the 50 dma cross up over the 200, and today we had a very strong day where the POG finishes with a nice candle......perhaps today was the end.
the gold stocks today printing a pretty decent candle, and gold up nicely. Not out of the danger zone to put it mildly but if gold is up big on monday we may well get an island gap up and go, leaving this little couple of final trend down days as an island. who knows.
some of my rules learned in the school of hard knocks: be a fast seller if your idea is not turning out, ....load up when something is on sale...(like now where the miners argubably are the cheapest in two generations, and make sure you are probably right on your macro......the most important thing is to be a fast seller, recognize mistakes. I make well over 100 million dollars in trades per year, for me they are not trades, they are bad ideas where i am wrong, ...and like all highly successful traders (so they say)_I make 90 percent of my money on less then 10 percent of my bets........I am so loaded for bear right now in the same stuff you are...............but I will sell much too quickly sometimes..........the winners I have let go in the past 5 years.........don't even want to think about it.
I do this now professionally for me myself and I, and was in the markets and by almost luck made a killing in the net/tech mania of the late 90s, which you reference.....been in the markets running my own money as a hobby since the mid 90s, and as an occupation for the past 10 years.....it is a little scary, before as a lawyer I could manage to replace my inexperience....but now, you gotta know what you are doing. I have seen 2 studies which say that if you want to make a living (not make a killing), successful people like me are either 1 in 32 or 1 in 48. I prefer fundamentals, which are tricky, taking a macro view down, and use technicals from time to time, like now, where my bet is that we will never again see the POG below 2000..........and going forward that the FED must cut and probably dramatically over the next 2 years starting probably in Q1. Goldman says 5 quarter point cuts this year alone.
that is a obvious sign you are in a bad stock, when it is at almost 10 year lows while the s and P and the market is being pumped fatter than a christmas turkey.....which means virtually none of the loose money and financialized coffers among the thousands of fund managers, would ever take a shot at avxl......with all its @God Bless Expect Great News charlatans that retail actually reads the posts of these hustlers and con artists.