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Sorry, didn't mean to imply that you were the source, just that you had mentioned the rumor in your post..
Regards,
impar
Greetings all,
I first started building a position in ENZR 2-3 years back originally out of an interest in vanadium after doing some reading about the alternative energy sector and future storage technologies (vrbs, etc). Anyways, I've averaged down a few times and am holding at present, but have watched the price here slowly and painfully dwindle.
Anyways, I do not have a technical background in this area by any means, but so far it has been quite an educational experience (though quite expensive on paper, so far, unfortunately).
I watched the Fulp video with some interest, as I happen to have a small position in ZEN as well. As has been pointed out, he certainly seems to disparage aspects of all 3 of the companies mentioned in the video.
He made some comments particularly about deposit size that I found confusing. He implies that size is not particularly important (ok, yes grade is important as well) and comments that with control of a large deposit, a company runs the risk of putting itself out of business by flooding the market. I guess this would apply to some extent to all 3, but likely particularly Syrah and Energizer. Would a company controlling such a deposit really be capable of being that foolish? Perhaps I am mistaken, but at face value it doesn't make much sense to me.
re: infrastructure. He makes a comment while discussing ZEN that transportation is approx 30 km away, and he would not invest in companies that have similar characteristics. He is similarly critical of ENZR's infrastructure (hopefully there may be some synergies with the Sakoa coal mine as has been mentioned on this board). Yet read this about Flinders Resources, which I believe is the company that he references that he has an interest in (from a document on their website):
The property is accessible by road from Stockholm
on highway E4 to Soderhamn, then highway 50/301 a
total of approximately 300 km northwest to the town of Edsbyn. From Edsbyn highway 301 continues for approximately 10km before turning off on to a gravel road that accesses the centre of the property, a distance of just over 10 km.
Woxna is has excellent access to infrastructure, se
rvices, electricity, supplies and a skilled and educated
labour force. The town of Bollnas lies about 30 km
east of Edsbyn and has a population in excess of
12,000.
In any case, all this is perhaps academic, as many posters have alluded to possible vested interests, etc.
Would welcome any comments.
Incidentally, are the longs here still planning on holding? I personally have been debating whether or not to cut my losses or hold. I don't think there is any argument about the resource itself, but the prospect of continuing dilution, etc prior to actually getting into production is daunting. Certainly seems like the overall sentiment here has soured in recent months secondary to management decisions, etc. Hopefully maseraticoupe's rumors of something positive are substantiated.
Regards,
impar
NYT article: The Secret to Solar Power
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/12/magazine/the-secret-to-solar-power.html?ref=magazine
Pretty good read about residential solar power companies' efforts to make headway in the domestic American market..
Regards,
impar
With regard to the second line NSCLC trial,
I recently contacted IR wondering about how MOS will be handled (ie, released when triggered vs when statistical analysis completed).
It sounds like results will be announced when 'these events are reached.' Hopefully it is safe to conclude, therefore, that MOS has not yet been triggered and continues to improve with time.
Good luck to all.
impar
Thanks for posting your communication.
Hopefully things will materialize in due time, though admittedly it has been somewhat frustrating hearing about the delays.
At some point, Natcore will have to bite the bullet, so to speak and proceed w/ a jv--hopefully with favorable terms (and while we still have cash).
Incidentally, the chairman's message has been removed from Natcore's website, so it would seem that we should have an update from Provini soon.
Regards,
impar
Natcore, NREL Chosen to Present Paper to IEEE
For anyone who hasn't seen this yet:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/natcore-technology-nrel-chosen-to-present-paper-to-ieee-2012-06-05
Regards,
impar
Another short local article re: establishment of research center
http://rochesterhomepage.net/fulltext?nxd_id=303882
It sounds like the funding number that is now being mentioned for the roll to roll tech is $15 million usd--I vaguely recall this being $20 million previously? Provini also mentions a roll to roll timeline of 1.5 yrs 'with proper funding.' Also, despite Provini's comment about the potential impact of investment of the 15 mill by Kodak that was obtained from Citi, it sounds unlikely that Kodak will bite. Hopefully we will hear something soon regarding roll to roll funding (even if this means having to go overseas) so we can press forward toward commercialization.
Excerpts from the above link below:
"The equipment we think we can use for that is right on the other side of this wall. We think create 15- 2,000 jobs with that product here and whole process would take 1 and a half years with proper funding," said Chuck Provini, Natcore Technology president.
It would cost $15 million.
The head of Eastman Business Park says Kodak doesn't have the money.
"At this point in Chapter 11, the likelihood of Kodak contributing dollars to that likely not going to happen. but based on technology if they can attract other investors show them some of our assets that could be re-purposed," said Mike Alt, director of Eastman Business Park
Congresswoman Slaughter says she wants to do what she can.
"We are looking, we are talking. Private money it doesn't have to be government, we really want this to succeed," said Rep. Slaughter.
If there is no investment, Natcore will manufacture somewhere else.
But for now up to a dozen people will work on doing research.
Regards,
impar
China encourages solar-product makers to expand amid supply glut
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-24/china-encourages-solar-product-makers-to-expand-amid-supply-glut.html
Should be interesting to see where Natcore's tech may fit in among Chinese manufacturers as downward price pressures continue, ie Phono Solar, etc.
Regards,
impar
Black silicon article by Dennis Flood.
Quite technical article about black silicon..can't imagine this article was meant for consumption by the general public, but does mention some of the technical factors that may be accounting for the time needed to tweak the process, etc.
An interesting read.
http://interpv.net/tech/tech_view.asp?idx=692&part_code=010010001&page=1
Regards,
impar
Local Rochester news article:
Solar company Natcore setting up shop in Rochester
Eastman Park to employ 10-15 people
Full article at:
http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120205/BUSINESS/302050025
Some points of interest from the article:
The solar energy technology firm is in the midst of setting up a research and development facility at Eastman Business Park that CEO Chuck Provini said should be operational within a couple weeks.
Once it is set up, the company plans to hire 10 to 15 people to staff it as it works on three separate, parallel technology tracks: “black silicon” solar cells that use silicon wafers etched with tiny pores that reflect back less light; stacks of tandem solar cells, each working on different wavelengths of light; and flexible, thin-film solar cells.
Later this month, Natcore plans to bring in prospective customers/investors such as representatives from an Italian solar panel maker, a Chinese solar cell maker and an Indian energy company.
And it [Natcore] hopes to have prototype black silicon solar cells within a couple of months, with greater efficiency than what is on the market today.
Tandem solar cell prototypes could be ready within six to 12 months, Provini said. And a workable prototype of flexible, thin-film solar cells — made with Kodak’s thin-film manufacturing capabilities and costing far less to install than traditional solar cells — would take the same amount of time if the company can find investors in the technology, Provini said.
Any comments on the timelines referenced in the article? My understanding from info posted here and gleaned elsewhere online is that the meeting with the Indian company has already taken place at this point. I was under the impression that the lab was already fully operational? The article also references black silicon prototypes being available in 'a couple of months.' Hopefully that would be in reference to fully optimized cells derived from feedback from the Az State U lab?
Anyway, hopefully Natcore will have some pleasant surprises materialize for us over the next few weeks. I suspect I am not the only one that's getting a bit tired of 'averaging down.'
Regards,
impar
PS. Hope those of us stateside enjoy the game today. Go Giants!
Local Rochester news article that lends some additional color to Kodak/Natcore:
http://www.13wham.com/news/local/story/natcore-jobs/IWwSuEVkx0aWUvoKYCr7ow.cspx
Rochester, N.Y. – Natcore Technologies moved into Building 308 at Kodak’s Eastman Business Park with much fanfare back in February 2011. The company said it had the potential to create an astounding 2,000 to 4,000 jobs.
“I am so excited because I see a new Kodak. I see a new Rochester,” said Rep. Louise Slaughter, who said she was seeking $8 million in federal funding to aid the startup.
Natcore believes it has cutting-edge solar cell technology.
“Energy doesn’t work unless you have government subsidies,” said CEO Charles Provini. “In order to make it work, you have to do two things. You have to double the efficiency or cut the cost in half. We have two different technologies that we think will do each of those.”
Natcore also has a third technology, the entire reason it moved to Building 308, home to a film coating machine. Natcore believes that machine is a great fit to develop its “roll-to-roll” solar cell. Natcore signed a joint development agreement with Kodak.
A year later, Natcore has only 10 employees. It’s building a research and development lab at Building 308 that will eventually employ 50 people.
But there’s little prospect for a local factory. The problem is federal funding never materialized.
“We’re still looking for funding. The government didn’t work out as far as funding it. We’re having other sources, other countries come in and take a look at it,” said Provini.
That means those thousands of factory jobs could go overseas. Provini said Natcore is ready to start actually making solar cells and has agreements with Chinese and Italian investors. He’s trying to convince investors to allow the solar cells to be made in the U.S. He’s looking at an old IBM factory in Albany, New York to make black silicone solar cells.
The potential for a Rochester factory is still there – for the “roll-to-roll” solar cells. But Natcore needs the money.
How much funding are we talking about?
“We need, for the roll to roll facility, we need roughly $20 million,” Provini said. “The people we work with, our partners in Italy and in China, they’re willing to fund it but they don’t want to fund it here.”
Provini would like Kodak to invest, but the company is in bankruptcy. He’s also still seeking government funding.
“If Kodak could take $15 million dollars…and continue with our joint development agreement, we could develop that roll to roll technology that would reinvent Kodak,” said Provini. “And it would give the world something that it needs, a cheap efficient solar cell.”
Thanks for that interesting link.
I'm not sure why google translate renders the units in parentheses as 'millions.' I am pretty sure that that unit denotes 'ten thousand' and as such, the equivalents in USD would be:
total additional funding: 31.4 million usd
registered capital: 4.7 million usd
Which seems to be a bit more likely than those numbers being larger by a factor of 100 (wonder what that would do to Natcore's visibility and share price? hehe)
Regards,
impar
A brief interview from the 2011 New Orleans investment conference w/ Natcore CEO Provini.
http://stocknewsnow.com/?p=2429
Interestingly, he makes mention here of the electricity savings figure projections (in Italy) that many had noticed on 'Buddy Green's' Facebook page.
impar
Came across this Provini interview (audio clip) on youtube, which appears to have been posted only a week ago.
China Benefits as US Solar Industry Withers
Interesting article here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/02/business/global/us-solar-company-bankruptcies-a-boon-for-china.html
Excerpt below.
HONG KONG — The bankruptcies of three American solar power companies in the last month, including Solyndra of California on Wednesday, have left China’s industry with a dominant sales position — almost three-fifths of the world’s production capacity — and rapidly declining costs.
Some American, Japanese and European solar companies still have a technological edge over Chinese rivals, but seldom a cost advantage, according to industry analysts.
Loans at very low rates from state-owned banks in Beijing, cheap or free land from local and provincial governments across China, huge economies of scale and other cost advantages have transformed China from a minor player in the solar power industry just a few years ago into the main producer of an increasingly competitive source of electricity.
“The top-tier Chinese firms are kind of the benchmark now,” said Shayle Kann, a managing director of solar power studies at GTM Research, a renewable energy market analysis firm based in Boston. Pricing of solar equipment is determined by the Chinese industry, he said, “and everyone else prices at a premium or discount to them.”
impar
I'll also be optimistic and will guess $2. Hope domasselin is correct, however! Hope everyone has a nice weekend.
impar
In case anyone hasn't seen this yet, Natcore's website has an image associated with the recent AR-Box news release on the Times Square monitors in NYC.
http://www.natcoresolar.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=131:natcore-in-the-middle-of-times-square-new-york&catid=1:press-coverage&Itemid=71
Hopefully JB is right about MX Solar and that things will move forward shortly.
Regards,
impar
Interesting article from the NYT:
Chinese Investment Wave Buoys American Small Businesses
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/07/business/smallbusiness/07sbiz.html
Mentioned are Solar Power Inc, and LDK Solar.
Wonder if at some point down the line, Natcore's relationship with Phono Solar will lead to something fruitful.
Not too excited to see the price where it is at at this point, though on the bright side, hopefully this represents an opportunity for further accumulation.
impar
Interesting article here from reuters:
Hopefully one day in the not too distant future, Natcore will be mentioned in a similar context..
Thanks to JB for sharing his communications with the company..I hope to add further to my position should prices remain at these levels..
Solar Firms Attract Market Interest, but Few Are for Sale
By CHRISTOPH STEITZ | REUTERS
Published: June 26, 2011
FRANKFURT — Snatching a well-managed and profitable solar company has been creeping up the agenda of global groups that are hoping to expand their renewable energy portfolios in the post-Fukushima world.
But finding a good company in the sector that is also available is not proving to be easy.
The nuclear disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi plant in Japan in the aftermath of an earthquake and tsunami in March and Germany’s subsequent decision to pull out of nuclear power completely have given extra impetus to the arguments in favor of renewable energy.
Observers have been predicting a takeover spree for years, but buying into the green energy boom is difficult, since many of the most attractive companies in the solar sector are part-owned by their founders or chief executives, making direct takeovers tricky.
Nevertheless, in April it appeared that the starting gun had been fired: The giant French energy group Total made a landmark $1.4 billion offer for a majority in the U.S. company SunPower; and the Swiss solar equipment maker Meyer Burger bid €356 million, or $504 million, for a German rival, Roth & Rau.
In May a survey carried out by the consulting firm KPMG showed that a third of investors and executives in the renewable energy sector were planning to make investments in the solar industry over the next 18 months.
The solar industry presents a rich hunting ground for utilities and industrial conglomerates, given the range of attractive takeover targets. In contrast to the wind energy sector, the solar industry is still considered young, even exciting, and hence it is still just at the beginning of its consolidation process.
But the story of the solar industry is also one of founders and pioneers who want to hold on to their companies in the current boom.
So any potential acquirers would have to bring their full powers of persuasion to bear.
“It’s an industry where real entrepreneurship played a very important role,” said Michael Tappeiner, an equity analyst at UniCredit in Munich. “These are real entrepreneurs that have built their companies under their own steam and they know their products in and out.”
Germany, the world’s largest solar market by sales, is full of leading edge companies that would make attractive additions. The two biggest, and probably most attractive, companies also have very protective owners who have established solid defenses against possible hostile takeovers by limiting the number of shares that are available to buy.
Frank Asbeck, founder and chief executive of SolarWorld — at €1.1 billion, the second-largest German solar company by market value after SMA Solar — is a case in point.
Known to some as the “sun king,” as much for his outgoing nature as his most recent career choice, Mr. Asbeck first made headlines in late 2008 when he attempted to take over the German factories of the General Motors Opel unit.
Now he owns 27.8 percent of SolarWorld and he said this month that selling his stake was “out of the question.”
Centrotherm, another German company and the world’s No. 2 solar equipment maker behind Applied Materials of the United States, has been holding up well during the intense pricing pressure that has hit the industry, thanks to strong demand from Asia. The company made its first-ever dividend proposal this year.
More than half of the company’s voting rights are held by its chief executive, Robert Hartung, who is also a majority shareholder of TCH, which in turn holds 50 percent of Centrotherm’s shares. His father, Rolf Hartung, holds a 15 percent stake in TCH.
“Entering the solar market aggressively through acquisitions appears less likely,” Mr. Tappeiner of UniCredit said with regard to strategic acquisitions by larger utilities.
Björn Glück, a fund manager at Lupus Alpha in Frankfurt, said that companies with real technological advantages would be the most sought after; he cited Wacker Chemie and SMA Solar in particular.
Wacker Chemie is the world’s No. 2 producer of polysilicon, a key raw material for the solar and semiconductor industries. The No. 1 producer is Hemlock Semiconductor Group of the United States.
In a poll compiled by the equity research analysis firm StarMine, nearly two-thirds of analysts rated Wacker Chemie a “buy.” Since its initial public offering in April 2006, the company’s shares have increased about 60 percent.
Shares in SMA Solar, the world’s largest maker of solar inverters, have seen equal gains since their I.P.O. in June 2008.
But more than half of voting shares in Wacker Chemie are owned by the Wacker family. And more than 70 percent of SMA Solar is held by its founders and their families through holdings and foundations.
SMA, the most profitable German solar group, has repeatedly ruled out significant changes to its shareholder structure.
Only serious difficulties, analysts said, could push those companies into the arms of big cash-rich groups, a scenario that is not unlikely, given the number of uncertainties in a young and busy industry that still is still helped by subsidies.
A more likely interim trend is the emergence of partnerships. In the future, solar companies will struggle to stand entirely alone, given their lack of investment and problems with economies of scale, analysts said.
Shi Zhengrong, the founder and chief executive of Suntech Power based in Wuxi, China, the world’s biggest maker of solar cells, said selling his 30 percent stake in the company was not an option.
However, Mr. Shi, who won Fortune magazine’s award for Asia businessman of the year in 2009, added that companies would find other ways to link up.
“In the long term, a partnership across the value chain will be quite feasible, it will be inevitable,” he said in Germany this month.
Christoph Steitz is a Reuters correspondent.
Natcore news release..
For those who haven't seen it yet, a news release from today.
The quote at the bottom is interesting, as there is reference to 'several' Chinese solar cell companies being interested presumably in working w/ Natcore..
Natcore Technology Successfully Uses LPD Process on Textured Solar Cells
Advance Enables Cost Savings by Allowing Use of Thinner Silicon Wafers
RED BANK, NEW JERSEY--(Marketwire - May 5, 2011) - Scientists of Natcore Technology Inc. (TSX VENTURE:NXT)(PINK SHEETS:NTCXF) have shown that Natcore's liquid phase deposition (LPD) process can be used to apply an antireflective (AR) coating to textured solar cells as well as standard planar cells, thus opening the door for the industry to achieve even further wafer thickness reductions by eliminating the thermal vacuum AR coating process altogether. The work was conducted by Natcore researchers at the Ohio State University in Columbus, Ohio.
One of the primary ways solar cell manufacturers are striving to reduce the cost of manufacturing silicon solar cells is to reduce the thickness of the wafers from which the cells are made. As the wafers get thinner, however, they lose the ability to fully absorb the light that strikes their front surface; consequently, the efficiency falls. A technique commonly employed to overcome this fundamental limitation is to isotropically etch the front surface of the wafer in order to form a regular pattern of small pyramids on it. The shape and angles of the pyramidal faces are such that more light is refracted into the crystal over a range of angles that prevent the light from travelling straight through the solar cell and being incompletely absorbed. The process, known as texturizing the wafer surface, has gained widespread acceptance in the solar cell industry.
Once texturized, the cells are put through the remaining standard cell processing steps, which include adding the AR coating and the contacts. A growing problem, however, is that the conventional AR coating process requires the cells to travel through a vacuum furnace. As the wafers get thinner and thinner, the conventional AR coating process causes them to warp, reducing the yield from the production process.
Reflectance is the proportion of light striking a surface that is reflected from it. For solar cells, the optimum reflectance is zero; a typical industry reflectance is about six percent. Measurements made at NASA Glenn Research Center in Cleveland, Ohio, show that the reflectance from texturized wafers coated with Natcore's LPD antireflective coating is reduced to well below two percent over the entire absorption band of silicon solar cells. This represents a two-thirds reduction from the typical reflectance achieved by standard industry practices today, and would be accompanied by an increase in cell efficiency.
"The processing steps for achieving this outstanding result will be implemented in the intelligent processing tool we're building in Silicon Valley," says Natcore Chairman Brien Lundin. "We've had strong interest in this technology from several solar cell companies in China. We'll send a number of coated wafers for each of them to process into finished solar cells before we take orders for the industrial version of our intelligent processing tool."
It's been quiet here recently. In case you haven't seen it already, latest news release:
Natcore Technology Begins Production of Intelligent AR Coating Processing Station
System Will Grow Antireflective Coatings on Solar Cells
RED BANK, NEW JERSEY--(Marketwire - 03/15/11) - Natcore Technology Inc. (TSX-V:NXT - News)(PINK SHEETS:NTCXF - News) today begins work on the first production model of its intelligent LPD processing station for growing an antireflective (AR) coating on silicon wafers in the process of becoming solar cells.
By using its exclusive technology, licensed from Rice University, Natcore believes its device will revolutionize the way solar cells are manufactured. At present, solar cell manufacture involves an expensive chemical vapor deposition (CVD) method that requires a high-temperature vacuum furnace; highly toxic and flammable silane and other dangerous chemicals; and silicon disks of sufficient thickness to withstand the high-temperature firing.
Conversely, Natcore's is a liquid phase deposition (LPD), or wet chemistry, process. It grows the AR coating in a warm chemical bath; eradicates the need for silane; dramatically reduces energy requirements; and significantly lowers silicon usage. The resulting solar cells will be less expensive and less environmentally harmful than conventional solar cells.
Natcore is producing its device at MicroTech Systems, Inc., a 15,000 sq. ft. facility located in Fremont, CA. The 25-year-old Silicon Valley company designs and manufactures wet stations for solar, LED, semiconductor, biomedical, data storage and other high technology applications. MicroTech's intelligent process control will be integrated with Natcore's LPD technology into a wet process platform...
rest at:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Natcore-Technology-Begins-iw-2781878256.html?x=0&.v=1
impar
Another article: Kodak partnership could create 4000 jobs.
ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WIVB) - A New Jersey company is projecting it can create up to 4,000 manufacturing jobs in Rochester by partnering with Kodak.
Congresswoman Louise Slaughter brought officials from Natcore Technology to Rochester Tuesday to tour the Kodak pilot coating facility...
rest at link:
http://www.wivb.com/dpp/money/4_your_job/kodak-partnership-could-create-4,000-jobs
Will be interesting to see how this all plays out.
impar
Interesting article in the Times: Solar Panel Maker Moves Work to China..
About Evergreen Solar shifting its production work to China and some of the reasons why; some elements mentioned similar to the media coverage this past summer re: Natcore and the Zhuzhou joint venture.
Hopefully we will continue to see positive Natcore news in the near future..
Link to the article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/15/business/energy-environment/15solar.html
impar
and now for some good news..
link at:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Natcores-Coating-Technology-iw-1671166218.html?x=0&.v=1
RED BANK, NEW JERSEY--(Marketwire - 01/10/11) - The antireflective (AR) coating technology of Natcore Technology Inc. (TSX-V:NXT - News)(PINK SHEETS:NTCXF - News) has been independently validated by a prominent Chinese solar cell manufacturer.
Several silicon wafers with antireflection coatings prepared by Natcore's researchers at the Ohio State University were supplied to a Chinese government-selected solar cell manufacturer for cell finishing and testing. The wafers were coated using Natcore's exclusive liquid phase deposition (LPD) technology...
...rest at link..
Regards,
impar
oh..oops looks like JB beat me to it..
Mods can delete if necessary..
Interesting article in the NY Times: Pentagon Must ‘Buy American,’ Barring Chinese Solar Panels.
Any thoughts on what ramifications, if any, this may have for Natcore as per their development plans in China?
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/10/business/global/10solar.html?hp
impar
An interesting article here about China's influence on the worldwide solar industry:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/13/business/energy-environment/13solar.html?_r=1&hp
Mentioned are several Silicon Valley companies and the strategies they have tried to implement (many related to cost reduction methods) in what has become a very competitive industry..hopefully we will continue to see Natcore take steps towards being a major player in that arena in the near future.
impar
Another nytimes mention..
Came across this article about Natcore in the New York Times..not a whole lot of new information here, for folks who monitor this board, but does shed some light on the Natcore-Zhuzhou connection..
Clean Energy Entrepreneurs Face More Obstacles in U.S.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/09/business/global/09tradeside.html?ref=global
Another interesting article that doesn't specifically mention Natcore (but does mention Zhuzhou), and discusses Chinese govt support of their solar industry..
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/09/business/global/09trade.html?pagewanted=1&hp
Hopefully we will see some interesting Natcore news in the near future..
impar
Hi all, a bit quiet around here recently following the news release regarding the joint venture in China.
A followup to the ABC news story located here..
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/solar-tech-firm-white-house-invite-china-deal/story?id=11043149