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They should do a 100 for 1 R/S now and get the price up to $25.
Then there'd only be 100k shares and they'd have plenty of room to dillute again once the next bit of news is released.
I feel for everyone with the balls to hold this one.
Hope it breaks to the upside soon for ya'll soon.
-DB
Yeah, this stock is like bad, bad, comedy.
They release info on ANX-530 along with more dillution.
It's like Culley's ringing the dinner bell, and everyone races over only to find an empty can of Spagetti-O's, and Culley's face is dirty.
So what... the day they resubmit the NDA = they'll dillute?
When they get approval = they'll dillute?
-DB
Sorry for the way it turned out Zig.
I'm out too.
Now if they start offering options after the R/S, I'll be all over that.
GL guys,
Those that are holding - you have balls of steel.
Best to all
-DB
Yeah, I deserved that - so no offense taken.
They get all the dividends for the entire term right away if they convert. Pretty sweet deal.
Now I just need tens of millions of dollars, and get those kinds of offers.
Sorry everyone, I thought there was something new - I screwed up.
-DB
I'm retarded, that's what's going on.
Was digging more - and found that all the preferrds have been converted. Last years, this years.... all of them. There are no preferrds anymore, none.
I didn't understand that - now I do.
Looks like these people cash them out as fast as possible.
They get shares far below the market rate, and about 25% instant rebate in the form of all the dividends when they convert them.
The only thing I don't understand is if the new shares are taken from the float or added to it.
I think I've caused enough trouble, I'm going to leave it alone.
Going to go crawl into a hole now.
-DB
Good idea Zig.
I think I'll take you up on your idea.
Let you know what happens.
-DB
More on the conversion
SEC filing on ANX's website:
Date: 01/04/2010
Form: 424B3
"Pursuant to the Prospectus, we offered up to $11,283,000 of our 4.25660% Series D Convertible Preferred Stock, or 11,283 shares based on a stated value of $1,000 per share, and warrants to purchase up to 19,800,000 shares of our common stock. Delivery of the convertible preferred stock and warrants was made on or about October 9, 2009
In addition, pursuant to the Prospectus, 79,800,000 shares of our common stock issuable upon conversion of the convertible preferred stock and exercise of the warrants were registered to permit their resale to the public by the purchasers of our convertible preferred stock and warrants"
This says the notes were delivered and may be sold by the owner on delivery.
Please, some feedback - someone tell me I'm wrong.
-DB
That what I'd have thought too.
Hold the preferrds and collect the dividends until the PPS is north of a dollar or two - convert and sell.
I guess the real question is: is anyone holding these notes, or is the company holding them? Or what?
Trying not to freak out - darn I wish I understood all this.
-DB
Eeeeekkkkkk!!!!! Zig-Zag, you're needed.
Zig, I was browsing the Sec filings trying to understand this.
On Anx's site: http://ir.adventrx.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=75414&p=irol-sec&secCat01.1_rs=31&secCat01.1_rc=10
Date: 10/05/09
Form: FWP
"If the Preferred Stock is converted at any time prior to October 9, 2020, the Company will pay the holder an amount equal to the total dividend that would accrue on such Preferred Stock from the conversion date through October 9, 2020, or $468.23 per $1,000 stated value of Preferred Stock converted, less any dividend payments made with respect to the converted Preferred Stock"
Does this mean if they just converted - they have to pay all this money right now?
That's 5.28 million dollars.
Help,
-DB
I'm very confused - the preferrds were purchased last year right?
That was the financing from 2009...
So those notes are held by someone - if they are converted, those shares are in that persons hand right?
If that's correct, I don't understand why they would do that now and not collect the dividends on the preferrds.
If I'm not reading this correct and these shares don't exist - what is this?
-DB
Hmmmm, I don't get it.
I don't have anywhere near your experience - all that legal gargon sounds conflicting.
So it says the preferrds are converted and an expense for registering them...... but like you point out "they" (ANX) won't list these on any exchange for sale.
If they're already sold from last year - doesn't that mean the it goes up on the exchange under the inveestors name?
It says ANX didn't make any money off this, so yeah they aren't putting these up for sale = they're already sold?
I'm confused.
-DB
The line that jumped out at me was:
"All of the convertible preferred stock has been converted into shares of our common stock"
and later down the line,
ITEM 13. OTHER EXPENSES OF ISSUANCE AND DISTRIBUTION
The following table sets forth the fees and expenses incurred or expected to be incurred by us in connection with the issuance and distribution of the securities being registered hereby, other than placement agent fees. All of the amounts shown are estimated except the SEC registration fee. Estimated fees and expenses can only reflect information that is known at the time of filing this registration statement and are subject to future contingencies, including additional expenses for future offerings.
Securities and Exchange Commission registration fee $ 629
Transfer agent fees and expenses 15,000
Printing and engraving expenses 30,000
Legal fees and expenses 150,000
Accounting fees and expenses 15,000
Miscellaneous expenses 4,371
Total $ 215,000
Am I reading this wrong?
-DB
Link:
http://ir.adventrx.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=75414&p=irol-sec
Date: 03/18/2010
Form: POS-AM
-DB
Zig, It's on ANX's website under the SEC filings.
The preferrds have been converted as of the 18th.
It doesn't say if the warrents are excersised.
So either 60million new shares, or 79.8 million shares.
It says they have an expense of 200k getting the shares printed out and filed with the SEC.
Real curious what you think on this.
-DB
Anyone?
Super quiet, here and at the Yahoo's = Me no like.
Kinda like feeling around in the dark, I'm personally don't like the dark.
Is this bad - or is there a silver lining we're not seeing?
-DB
What does everyone think of todays dillution?
When I read it early this morning, I took it as bad news....
The Yahoo's on their board think it means partnership - I don't know what to make of it.
I don't see the benefit of converting the preferrds to commons at this stage for any reason.
Anyone have some idea why this would happen now?
Giving up the preferrd's dividend sure seems dumb.
-DB
Ahhhh, I see.
I was thinking the .24 had to close above or something to count - sorta like breaking thru the BB's but rubberbanding back.
GL to ya Zig - here's wishing for the best.
Have a nice weekend.
-DB
Zig,
Yup - big unexpected day today - very nice.
What are your thoughts on the site data.
To me that's everything.
The name is nice - and I'll take a pop over a drop anyday.
I think if Culley can talk them into using the data - this will run hard. If they won't, then today bought a bit more time.
Oh, something a bit more up your alley.
The two important numbers were .16 and .24
.24 was taken out - but it also dropped and closed on it.
Does that mean the channel is intact or broken?
Thanks,
-DB
Yes, this is quite the surprise.
Good move Culley.
-DB
What's the odds of Culley sweet talking them?
I've listened to the CC a few times, and I have to say he's kinda wishy-washy on this.
He talks about meeting with the FDA ASAP, and hopes he can convince them to take data from the first lab.
If that happens - great. It fixes everything.
In the same CC he mentions a couple times that the FDA's new rules of 12 months maybe being in effect and that delays them several months. He goes on to say they con't throw money at the problem, that only time can solve it.
From the FDA letter
"In the letter, the FDA indicated that the data included in the initial submission from the intended commercial manufacturing site was insufficient to support a commercially-viable expiration dating period"
It sounds pretty clear to me, what the FDA wants.
Then again - I don't know how scatter-brained the FDA is.
Do they reverse decisions often?
Has anyone seen a reject to file for this reason?
I tried finding a like situation on the internet - but only found reject to files based on formatting errors and additional info required.... not manufacturing data.
-DB
I'll take a stab.....
No offering ruining our announcement Jan 1 NDA filing = .62
NDA accept = 1.03
A bit misleading though, I think both of these would've been their "firm" numbers - not "pop and drop".
The tops of the spikes would've been a bit higher at their peak.
Just my guess.
-DB
You didn't miss anything velvet.
Only thing of note was it crossed back into .21 - diehards didn't like that and pushed it back to .22, for awhile... but they can't hold by themselves.
I hope everyone loosens up a bit so this can get a daily range - that'd get some interest and vol back in it.
Then it could get some momo and break one way or the other (probably alternating positive and negative), IMO that'd be the best thing.
This whole "not an inch" flatline is bad for everyone - not a battle of attrition we can win.
Best thing would be drop to .19 and rock up to .22/.23 and back down - over and over.
Get new buyers everytime it'd pass .20 and get daytraders to fill out the vol.
Otherwise, this will be ground down and hurt alot of people (in the short and mid term).
Just my take.
-DB
Can we please not fight?
Don't want this to be the next Yahoo
-DB
I think it's a race at this point.
PR's are good and all - but their effect is fleeting.
It would bring huge swings to the PPS (both up and down) - I could live with that :)
We wouldn't want people to get numb to PR's though - the actual event would be lessened.
No, ANX needs product. Our product is the potential for a drug or two - not the drug itself.
Why? Because we can't fix or improve the drug. Not enough money, time or manpower.
So, it's the perception of threat against big pharma that's key.
That's NDA's, FDA accepts, and partnerships - not the drug itself.
Weird isn't it?
At the same time - I wouldn't be surprised for the PPS to be brought into the low teens several times over the next few months so Icahn and Craimer can grab a majority stake of the commons as the VOL goes down, buyers tire, and the axe gets agressive...
But yes, Genzym eats ANX and becomes a superpower overnight - and Icahn will own Genzym - probably exchanging ANX shares for Genzym shares to bump him over 51% (if he isn't there already by that time).
-DB
The SEC takes your complaint and puts it in the shredder.
They don't want any of that Enron type nonsense visiting them later.
-DB
Hey ZigZag - what's the address to your blog?
Thanks,
-DB
Yeah, that is nice, amazing and surprising.
This one's keeping us guessing isn't it?
-DB
There it is - the most important bit of ANX info in quite a while.
Thank you for posting that.
-DB
I understand that. Completely.
Your answer illustrates what I must be missing.
They have to meet with the FDA again to figure out what's wrong.
That's a month.
They may need more data.
That's up to six months (?).
NDA resubmit
That's two months.
514
We don't know the date for NDA on this.
Ive heard averything from May to Oct.
So at least two months (don't know how much data they have from the new site either) to 6 months (?).
I agree, this is a huge possibility later in the year. Huge.
I still don't understand what the argument is about going up in the short and mid term.
There's all this excitement and buzz right now. Hey that's great.
Without product and profit, can it last?
So two weeks from now - or even a month. What will we have?
A PR about meeting with the FDA, maybe even the meeting itself.
Does that erase the glitch of not having the NDA filed?
Does that justify a PPS above .26?
If everyone's buying right now - how long till they tire?
The retails don't have unlimited money, so it must be finite.
Can VOL of 20million (to the positice side) be sustained for an extended period of time?
That's what I'm getting at - that is what no one seems to want to talk about.
They are uncomfortable questions. Does anyone have an answer?
-DB
I don't get it.
Everyone's talking about breakout - I just don't see it.
This is day 2 after the drop.
VOL spikes because everyone assumes it's oversold.
It sold off because possibly several montshs has been added to the timeline. What can counter that?
The axe isn't on our side - everyone's complaining about that.
Yesh, it's a pain in the rear. I agree.
Unless volume is out of control, and the axe loses control - how do you beat the axe?
When the BB was being pushed up, I was thinking = wow.
Just like everyone I'm sure.
Until it passes .24, I'm just not sold on the reversal idea.
Not trying to bash - trying to understand the ephoria.
I want this to go up, but I'm also on the lookout for a double top. Don't want to get caught with my pants down.
Tomorrow will be interesting.
-DB
He said "soon".
I thought the slides said 2010 - which I took to mean late 2010.
I'm sure they have more pressure now to get it done - does anyone know how many months of new plant samples they have for 514?
That would seem to be the great equalizer to me.
-DB
Thanks for the warm welcome ZigZag.
Mmmmmmm, you have a blog? Link please.
Yeah, the yahoo board can get really disgusting sometimes.
It's too bad - there's some really good people over there (but the pumpers and bashers are so much louder).
I thought about posting on that horrible thread - but decided not to feed the fire.
I'll miss your charts on ANX - but like you said, it probably won't do jack for a long while.
Perfect for trading though. That's what I intend to do once it's settled a bit - unless I can be convinced that it won't be channel bound (No one on Yahoo has been able to refute that position).
-DB
You're thoughts going forward - Positive and Neg
Disclaimer: Yahoo refugee tired of the blind pump and bash - looking for real discussion.
Not cut and dry anymore is it?
I wish we had been given the thumbs up.
Would've made life easier.
So Pro's and Con's / possibilities
The Good
1. Volume increases and PPS moves up
2. ANX gets it's PR machine running and pumps it up
3. FDA only needs a few months of new sample data
4. FDA takes up NDA were it left off
What are the chances of these? Some have a good chance (IMO).
I think they will step up PR - it's the easiest, fastest and cheapest thing to do, but they have to deliver on promises.
The best thing is ANX has the money to complete the work no matter how long it takes.
The bad
1. Volume decreases and the PPS drops
2. FDA wants several months of sample data and this drags on and on.
3. NDA has to start again from the beginning, so an extra two months.
4. PR doesn't pump 514 well.
5. Some others have mentioned delisting, although we know ANX wants to move to Nasdaq - could be a moot point.
What are the chances of these?
The ONLY thing that concerns me on the bad side is the data samples taking several months. The last two months have been a disaster with this thing grinding down. Blame the MM, the shorts or Santa - it doesn't matter.
Not that this grind would happen for sure if this drags into several months - but if it did, it gives loads of time for shorts and boredom to take effect.
If today was strong off the bottom (daytraders and the scanners surely had a hand in this), doesn't that mean Momo and volume will decrease as time moves on?
It'll get broken up by the minor PR's yes, but without the major PR's of NDA submit or FDA approve, how does the big money enter and push it up?
Not trying to bash or pump - trying to look at both sides of the coin and get a bearing.
ZigZag, you were right. The chart had to move on news. I (and I think everyone) looks to your analysis. What do you see now?
My chart has the BB's super tight again, just like before the news (unless I'm doing it wrong - which is very possible).
What does that mean in this situation? Too early?
Your thoughts?
Thanks,
-DB