Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I believe SWITOW will be a huge success and hope that it will change some investors opinion of CCME. Including Cramer, who said "they advertise on busses, I'm not making this up". Also those that say CCME will die after the 2012 expiration of their contract with the China Ministry of travel.
I also think that the internet facet of the business will lead to mutiple expansion for CCME.
GLTA Longs.
JB
Dough, I don't think that anybody can answer the revenue question, not even the company. Until Natcore has successfully run a large quantity of silicon panels (they are targeting 1,000 - 2,000) using the LPD process, they don't have a product to sell (except NanoShades). These completed test panels they intend to manufacture have to be consistent in every way in order for the run to be successful. Success could be attained right away, or not.
Once the full scale production bugs are worked out (if there are any),
we'll just have to wait and see how quickly silicon panel manufacturers adopt the LPD process.
The signing of the first few licensing and supply contracts will certainly be a big deal. I can't say with any confidence that this will happen in the first half of 2011. I wouldn't be surprised if most of the silicon solar manufacturers are waiting for the introduction of the tandem cell. Of course, I could be wrong.
I do expect Natcore to partner with a large international company for the development of the roll to roll flexible thin film in early 2011. This announcement will be a huge positive for Natcore's future and could do wonders immediately for the share price. Natcore's management is expecting the 'preferred' partnership deal to consumate in early 2011. Also, I have been told that more than one other company wants to do the roll to roll partnership, so there are back up plans. (Dr. Flood stated on 11/24/09 that he expected to have the roll to roll funding and an agreement in hand in 1 to 6 months. Chuck Provini stated on 12/10/09 that he expected funding and an agreement right after the first of the year) Hopefully, there won't be any delays.
Other 2011 positives to look for are the opening of their own lab, which should deliver ongoing reports of progress in the development of the tandem cell, and possibly other technologies. My gut feeling is that we will see a tandem cell prototype by the end of 2011.
Knowing that Natcore is presently a developmental stage company, I feel that advancing their technologies is more important than revenues at this juncture. Although, revenues would be a bonus.
From Cosmic's post with regard to Natcore, "They can be holding the keys to the kingdom in a lot of areas". I agree.
From Dr. Dennis Flood, "In my 30 plus years of involvement in the solar industry, I have never seen a process that in the end will have the impact that LPD will have. The LPD process is a world beater in price and performance".
I'm buying the dips.
GLTA Longs,
JB
Yes, I'm looking forward to 2011, 2012 and beyond.
I signed up at mystockbuddy.com. I'm waiting for a response from the admin, so that I can post. Cosmic seems to be very knowledgable. I'm going to invite him to post on this board.
JB
HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!
Good post from My Stock Buddy. Interesting comments as well.
http://www.mystockbuddy.com/forum/canadian_stock_picks/3932-natcore_technology_nxt_v_ntcxf.html
JB
I think Jacky was talking about $1.00 average profit per rider.
If CCME can make $100 off of each 100 riders, they will have their $1.00 per rider average. Seems doable to me.
While I have no idea what the margins will be, I remember Jacky throwing out an average profit figure of $1 per bus rider from this retail venture, during a cc. Of course, he didn't say how long he thought it would take to reach that level.
With 1.2 billion riders per year now, and probably growing to 2 billion riders before long, profits here could easily surpass those of bus advertising in the future.
Happy Holidays to all!!!
JB
The garbage hit pieces directed at CCME keep coming. I wonder if this is the hit piece Bulls On Wallstreet predicted.
There is always somebody out there that will write anything in order to gain attention.
JB
Great synopsys of TSTC's story. Thanks for the effort.
JB
Just sharing the fact that the FSEC found NENE's press release misleading. Could it be that the FSEC doesn't have any faith in NENE's technology?
They find something misleading!
It would seem to make sense that we are at, or close to, a bottom. Most of the recent 'buy' money went to the PP, while all of the 'sell' money drove down the share price. All of the participants in the earlier PP's were able to sell with long term capital gains. No reason for them not to sell, and then buy into the PP in order to bag the warrants.
I'm still accumulating shares. I hope we don't explode to the upside anytime soon. I have alot of confidence in management and the founders.
When I think about Natcore, the number one item that keeps popping up in my mind is the following statement Dr. Flood (Natcore's CTO) made to me in a phone conversation. "In my 30 plus years of involvement in the solar industry, I have never seen a process that, in the end, will have the impact that LPD will have. The LPD process is a world beater in price and performance."
IMHO, patience will pay off.
GLTA Longs.
JB
Email from the Florida Solar Energy Center. Calls NENE press release misleading.
Mr xxxx
The Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC) did not test the solar window technology. FSEC merely checked a series of simplified spread sheet calculations to determine if there were errors in their spread sheet calculations. New Energy Technologies' press release is misleading. Specific questions regarding this technology should be directed to New Energy Technology.
Thank you for checking.
Regards,
Sherri Shields
Asst. Director, Communications
Florida Solar Energy Center/UCF
Message from NTCXF board. NTCXF is another solar start up.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=57721243
GL
Good to have you back!
It's amazing how far a company paid newsletter pumper can push a company that doesn't have a viable product.
I hope that the tax cut extension bill includes the funding they are talking about for alternative energy. This funding could be what Natcore needs to close a deal for roll to roll here in the USA in early 2011.
GLTA Longs,
JB
I had a phone conversation with Chuck Provini yesterday.
I asked him to lay out the companies financials. He stated that most of the pp dollars will be used to fund the new lab, which will bring Natcore's technology to market sooner. Natcore's current cash burn rate is $70,000 per month. It is expected to reach $100,000 per month after the new lab is opened.
Chuck feels that the $5 million Natcore expects to receive from warrant conversions in 2011 will sustain the company until they are profitable.
Tandem cell and roll to roll are both top priorities. There are 3 companies in the hunt to partner with Natcore in the roll to roll business. Both tandem cell and roll to roll are projected to cost $.60 per watt to manufacture. I could be wrong, but from what I've read, TSL is the current low cost silicon producer. TSL is expected to lower it's costs below $1.00 in the first half of 2011.
Three ovens are used to manufacture silicon solar panels. Natcore believes that they have eliminated the need for two of these ovens with their LPD process. They will work on eliminating the third.
GLTA Longs,
JB
Louis N is on Bloomberg
TSTC's 4th qtr 2009 results, released 3/31/10, started the share price decline from $18.50 down to the 2010 low of $7.30. The sales were great, but, the eps was disapointing due to higher installation costs (wages). There was alot of labor unrest country wide during 2009, resulting in 20% - 50% wage increases.
I'm going to try to ask a question related to their 2010 installation labor costs during tomorrows cc. However, I've never been given the chance to ask a question during any companies cc in the past.
If any of you get the opportunity to ask questions tomorrow, please ask if installation costs for 2010 were what they expected them to be, as opposed to the unexpected increase in 2009.
Thanks, JB
I just received an email from Natcore. The pp ends 12/15. Chuck Provini states that Natcore's target was 2 to 3 million $. The pp is over subscribed. Current shareholders can still participate until the deadline.
GLTA Longs,
JB
My thoughts are these entities Natcore refers to, are getting their ducks in a row to enable them to be at the front of the line once the tandem cell is introduced. It's hard to comprehend how huge cost parity with conventional energy is going to be.
I think that most will be more comfortable buying and holding Natcore after the pp is completed. I would be quite happy to buy any dips here.
GLTA Longs,
JB
CEO of Better Place discusses his plans for an electric car infrastructure. He predicts that electric car sales in China will reach 40 million annually in 10 years, and that these vehicles will be powered by solar rings built around Chinese cities.
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11323
Solar's future looking brighter everyday!
JB
I am not a scientist myself. In fact, I am a relative newcomer to the solar space. This is my understanding of the technology.
For a better understanding of what Natcore is trying to accomplish, take a look at the October, 2010 power point on their website. You'll see a page with a depiction of an ordinary solar cell and Natcore's tandem solar cell. The tandem solar cell is aimed at capturing more of the sun's energy through the use of additional cells that contain quantum dots.
From the 11/11 PR, Natcore "has successfully formed a multilayed array of silicon quantum dots embedded in a silicon matrix. Natcore leaps forward in quest for high-efficiency tandem cell." Previously, Natcore announced, in a PR, that they were the first to encapsulate quantum dots in silicon dioxide. However, there was a problem that had to be solved before forming the tandem cell. The silicon dioxide layer was not smooth where it encapsulated the quantum dots. This humping of the layer at the dots has been resolved, enabling the formation of the multilayered tandem cell. Dr. Flood believe's that the current tandem cell is 25% efficient as opposed to the industry norm of 15% to 17%.
The next objective is to locate the dots within the top silicon quantum dot cell directly above the dots in the middle quantum dot cell. It is beleived that this allignment will produce at least 30% efficiency (the Holy Grail of solar). To Dr. Flood's knowledge, nobody else has a process that enables them to form a tandem cell that can be mass produced.
In the Pinnacle radio address last April, Dr. Andrew Barron referred to the patterning of the quantum dots in the development of the tandem cell. Essentially, he stated that once this is acheived, the rest of the developmental process is trivial. We may see a tandem cell prototype in the not to distant future. Hopefully, it will be 30% efficient, although, it could be the 25% efficient model for now.
Natcore's foundational and proven technology, the LPD process, "will significantly increase the efficiancy and reduce the costs of silicon solar cell manufacturing." This process is the basis for the joint venture in China. The j/v should be up and running soon, if it's not already. The plan is to set up and run a full scale production line in coordination with partner Chuangke Silicon LTD. One to two thousand panels will be manufactured using the LPD process. The chemicals will be added manually for this first run. Providing that all the panels are consistant in every way, Natcore will have a product to offer to silicon solar cell manufacturers.
Ohio State U. has been working to refine the process in order to assure that NatcoreChina hits the ground running (Natcore CEO Provini's words).
Of interest to Natcore, silicon solar cell manufacturers, and Natcore's shareholders, is the ability to reduce the amount of silicon used in the solar cells. According to Dr. Flood, the industry is in the process of reducing the thickness of the silicon layer from 300-330 microns (approx. 1/1000") down to about 250 microns. Dr. Flood views 250 microns as currently being the limit of reduction due to the high temperature ovens that are used to apply the A/R coating. Dr. Flood also stated that while Natcore's LPD process would allow for a much thinner silicon layer, the layer has to be thick enough to not break apart while being handled by robots. Natcore's desired thickness is 100 microns. This would be a 60% reduction from 250 microns. I think that the optimal thickness will be determined at NatcoreChina before the first production run of panels.
Natcore has stated that they expect revenue in the first qtr of 2011 from NatcoreChina and NanoShades. How much is hard to say. I don't expect much in that qtr. However, Tom Scarpa and Chuck Provini both have stated that companies are anxious to be first in line when the tandem cell is available. That, and the benefits of the LPD process alone, may drive sales sooner than I expect.
When valuing Natcore, don't forget to account for their intellectual property and the future applications in many large-scale industries.
To the best of my recollection, everything in this post is accurate.
I welcome any additions or corrections.
I encourage anyone with any technical questions to talk to Dr. Flood.
dough, I hope this helps.
JB
P.S. I'd be happy to call for answers to questions if that's preferred by anyone.
In my last post I mistakenly wrote Dr. Barron many times. Everywhere I wrote DR. Barron it should have been Dr. Flood. Sorry.
JB
I just ended a conversation with Dennis Flood, Natcore's Chief Technology Officer. Tom Scarpa had asked Dr. Flood to call me with the answer to a couple of my technical questions.
We discussed the new R&D lab that is behind the current pp. The plan is to staff it with a PHD in chemistry, a PHD in electronics who specializes in material sciences, and lab techs. The current University labs that Natcore utilizes are staffed with graduate school students that can only work part time on projects. Dr. Barron stated that the new lab will accelerate research work.
My main question for Dr. Barron related to the last PR which states " scientists formed a multilayered array". I wanted to know if the quantum dots in each of these layers had been stacked one on top of the other. The answer was no, not yet, that is the next step. I commented that I can't imagine how it is possible to locate dots, that are in a liquid, on a surface in exactly the right spots. His reply was that scientists can do some amazing things. Currently the dots are all charged positively so that there is the desired separation between them while being encapsulated. This is as far as Dr. Barron went on this subject.
I asked if the current version of the tandem cell is commercially viable after the necessary refinements are made in order to advance it to the factory floor. Dr. Barron said absolutely, and that the non-structured tandem cell would probably have about 25% efficientcy as long as not more than 10% of the quantum dots become clustered together
during the LPD layering process. (Very cool huh!) I asked if Natcore is willing to release this version of the tandem cell while still working on the ultimate tandem cell. He thought so, but wasn't sure.
Dr. Barron stated that in all of his many, many years of involvment with solar, he has never seen a process that in the end will have the impact that LPD will have. He added that the LPD process is a world beater in price and performance. (This isn't coming from a sales guy!)
The NanoProtect X-Ray Shielding products will have nano tubes in the yarn, according to Dr. Barron. The products will be slightly heavier than thick clothing.
Dr Barron stated that Natcore hoped to have money in hand and agreements within 6 months for roll to roll flexible thin film start up.
He estimated there would be a one year pilot level readiness in order to run a chunk on large roll to roll. He thought it would then take another six months to production. Dr. Barron mentioned that Kodak is still very much in the picture.
Dr. Barron then discussed a possible LPD application I wasn't aware of. He said that the first step in silicon cell production has to do with applying a glass like coating to the silicon sheet (I'm not sure he called it a sheet). This creates a large single diode (I think this is what he called it). The glass like coating is applied in an oven. The coating process takes about one hour. Natcore believes that this process can be accomplished by using their LPD process. However, Natcore hasn't had the time to pursue this yet. (The silicon sheet(?) is only about 1/1000" thick)
I like what I heard.
JB
The Unit Subscription Agreement is 32 pages long.
The company is looking to raise 3 to 4 million dollars.
The share price is .75 Canadian.
Each share comes with 1/2 warrant, that has a strike price of $1.00c.
If I remember correctly, the warrants have a 3 year expiration.
If you call 732 - 576 - 8800, I'm sure that Natcore would email you a copy.
JB
I understand the need to vent. lol
Tstc is down 14.5% today on news of their pp. Also, I have held GE for over 20 years. What a beat down this decade!
The good news is that I know that I have the patience to hold through thick and thin. I believe that patience is going to pay me back with huge returns from Natcore stock.
I added 41,300 shares yesterday. Scary short term when considering that the NTCXF board showed only 69,000 shares traded for the day. I will buy more if it goes lower, as it's not scary long term!
Good Day,
JB
With all due respect, I strongly disagree with what you are saying here. To my knowledge, companies always test possible demand before proceeding with an offering. In fact, they usually proceed with the pp and then announce it after the fact.
Natcore checked for possible demand and then sent the agreement to everybody that had signed up for email alerts so that their shareholders can participate in the offering. Natcore's approach is more open than most.
TSTC is an example of a typical pp. They announced it this morning without giving shareholders notice and without giving all shareholders a chance to participate in it.
Regards,
JB
Well, obviously, selling some A/Rs for business expansion didn't make sense to the company. My takeaway from the offering is that they have a very possitive view of their future business prospects.
JB
I was pleasantly surprised by Tom's current $3m pp estimate, compared to his $6m estimate a couple of weeks ago. Apparently, demand has slipped due to the price and possibly the 1/2 warrant instead of a full warrant. Also, Tom stated that Natcore is concerned with dilution.
My thoughts are that selling will subside now that the offering has been priced.
The new lab is in a green tech park in Houston, near Rice U. Tom stated that the Rice U. tandem cell research and the Ohio State LPD research will be moved to the new lab. The new lab will advance other technology as well. Tom also stated that the new lab will allow Natcore to perform work and tests on samples provided by solar manufacturers much more efficiently.
JB
The private placement Unit Subscription Agreement is out. The emailed agreement was in my inbox this morning.
The price for new shares is .75 Canadian. They come with 1/2 warrant.
I called Tom Scarpa this morning. He now feels that the pp will be in the neighborhood of $3 mil. He thinks the pp will end next week.
I bought big this morning between .72 and .76. Time will tell if I should have been more patient.
GLTA longs,
JB
nole92, thanks to you and rich for providing examples of companies that have sold their A/Rs. It's comforting to know that TSTC could sell their A/Rs if it made sense to do so, i.e. acquisitions or expansion. I now value their A/Rs as worth $11 per share in cash equivalents.
Do you think $11 per share is a good valuation?
JB
Just putting an option out there to address investor's 'primary concern'.
BTW, I look at you as a Yahoo type poster. Am I wrong?
JB
I would like to see TSTC privately solicit bids for their A/Rs. If they receive a respectable offer, they could report it even if they didn't accept the offer. IMO this would add a great deal of value to their A/Rs.
JB
Given that the A/Rs are the primary concern for investors, would it be possible for TSTC to sell their ROCK SOLID A/Rs?
If the company sold the $134m worth of A/Rs for $120m, a 10% discount, we would be left with $120m cash and no A/Rs.
Has anybody heard of another company doing this?
Any thoughts?
JB
I agree that NTCXF has a great future in roll to roll flexible thin film solar, as well as silicon solar, and many other businesses.
I stated "possibly on the sly' thinking that NTCXF doesn't really qualify as a Chinese Growth Company. However, maybe their joint venture would qualify them. Whatever, I'm glad you included NTCXF on your list.
JB
nsomniyak, delighted to see that you included NTCXF (possibly on the sly?) in your CGS board top ten. That board had 25,000 reads by 9:00 AM on Friday, according to Burp. You may have introduced NTCXF to thousands of investors. Well done!
I'm going to call Tom Scarpa next week for updates.
I have sold CCME, but hold NEP and TSTC, added to both last week.
GLTA
JB
Added 2K shares this morning.
JB
I believe that CHBT stated that the land deal for the Yangling animal feed plant will have been settled by the end of the year. They said that four contractors are bidding for the work, which will take two years to complete.
While discussing their cash position, and uses for it, I think that the Company mentioned that the Yangling Plant will cost them $50 mil. Wouldn't this mean that they no longer plan to partner with another company?
JB
Natcore's reply to NENE question, posted on Yahoo.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/stocks_%28A_to_z%29/stocks_n/threadview?m=tm&bn=96309&tid=93&mid=93&tof=4&
JB
"I encouraged Tom to give us a string of possitive PR's leading up to the offering, which is about 2 weeks out."
JB
I encouraged Tom to give us a string of possitive PR's leading up to the offering, which is about 2 weeks out. He thought that Chuck Provini was going to recap the events in New Orleans in a press release.
Tom stated that inquiries he and Chuck have made to doctors and lab techs lead them to believe that the x-ray nanocloth clothing Natcore is developing may become a $300 million a year business. I wish they would PR items such as this.
JB