I am not a scientist myself. In fact, I am a relative newcomer to the solar space. This is my understanding of the technology.
For a better understanding of what Natcore is trying to accomplish, take a look at the October, 2010 power point on their website. You'll see a page with a depiction of an ordinary solar cell and Natcore's tandem solar cell. The tandem solar cell is aimed at capturing more of the sun's energy through the use of additional cells that contain quantum dots.
From the 11/11 PR, Natcore "has successfully formed a multilayed array of silicon quantum dots embedded in a silicon matrix. Natcore leaps forward in quest for high-efficiency tandem cell." Previously, Natcore announced, in a PR, that they were the first to encapsulate quantum dots in silicon dioxide. However, there was a problem that had to be solved before forming the tandem cell. The silicon dioxide layer was not smooth where it encapsulated the quantum dots. This humping of the layer at the dots has been resolved, enabling the formation of the multilayered tandem cell. Dr. Flood believe's that the current tandem cell is 25% efficient as opposed to the industry norm of 15% to 17%.
The next objective is to locate the dots within the top silicon quantum dot cell directly above the dots in the middle quantum dot cell. It is beleived that this allignment will produce at least 30% efficiency (the Holy Grail of solar). To Dr. Flood's knowledge, nobody else has a process that enables them to form a tandem cell that can be mass produced.
In the Pinnacle radio address last April, Dr. Andrew Barron referred to the patterning of the quantum dots in the development of the tandem cell. Essentially, he stated that once this is acheived, the rest of the developmental process is trivial. We may see a tandem cell prototype in the not to distant future. Hopefully, it will be 30% efficient, although, it could be the 25% efficient model for now.
Natcore's foundational and proven technology, the LPD process, "will significantly increase the efficiancy and reduce the costs of silicon solar cell manufacturing." This process is the basis for the joint venture in China. The j/v should be up and running soon, if it's not already. The plan is to set up and run a full scale production line in coordination with partner Chuangke Silicon LTD. One to two thousand panels will be manufactured using the LPD process. The chemicals will be added manually for this first run. Providing that all the panels are consistant in every way, Natcore will have a product to offer to silicon solar cell manufacturers.
Ohio State U. has been working to refine the process in order to assure that NatcoreChina hits the ground running (Natcore CEO Provini's words).
Of interest to Natcore, silicon solar cell manufacturers, and Natcore's shareholders, is the ability to reduce the amount of silicon used in the solar cells. According to Dr. Flood, the industry is in the process of reducing the thickness of the silicon layer from 300-330 microns (approx. 1/1000") down to about 250 microns. Dr. Flood views 250 microns as currently being the limit of reduction due to the high temperature ovens that are used to apply the A/R coating. Dr. Flood also stated that while Natcore's LPD process would allow for a much thinner silicon layer, the layer has to be thick enough to not break apart while being handled by robots. Natcore's desired thickness is 100 microns. This would be a 60% reduction from 250 microns. I think that the optimal thickness will be determined at NatcoreChina before the first production run of panels.
Natcore has stated that they expect revenue in the first qtr of 2011 from NatcoreChina and NanoShades. How much is hard to say. I don't expect much in that qtr. However, Tom Scarpa and Chuck Provini both have stated that companies are anxious to be first in line when the tandem cell is available. That, and the benefits of the LPD process alone, may drive sales sooner than I expect.
When valuing Natcore, don't forget to account for their intellectual property and the future applications in many large-scale industries.
To the best of my recollection, everything in this post is accurate.
I welcome any additions or corrections.
I encourage anyone with any technical questions to talk to Dr. Flood.
dough, I hope this helps.
JB
P.S. I'd be happy to call for answers to questions if that's preferred by anyone.
