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INO ... sold some trading shares today @ $2.44 for another successful swing trade. Considering 3-4 successful swing trades and a quadruple on top of that, INO has been killer for me!
Still have 85% of my original shares and if it goes to zero I'm still ahead.
Bought some more EXMGF / MIN.V ... like the recent royalty financing deal and low-volume dip. That one has also been killer ... but not in the same way as INO unfortunately.
I don't know ... great question! Actually, that's the same question I've been asking myself.
Perhaps we can evaluate ALL relevent details and arrive at a better-informed opinion.
Thanks Nico ... very interesting!
"The clinical trials so far have not enticed any legitimate funding entity..."
Does anyone here have any speculation as to why?
" they are TAKING THE NUVOLA with them!!!"
I missed this DD ... where was this referenced?
Ugh ... of course it's pretty much an accepted fact that that company has not received financing. That statement is not equivalent to the science not being valid, which goes back to my original question which I was curious your insights...
I'm saying, essentially, the validity of the science should be assessed based on, as possible, ALL the relevent facts. Isn't it better to draw a conclusion baed on the consideration of all relevent information?
If you think the science is not credible, I'm all ears ... I've been asking myself the same question. Yes, the lack of financing is an INDICATION, but there are other considerations such that the India trials did indeed acheive statistical significant benefits. That is surely a positive INDICATION.
If the science is not credible that would imply the clincal trial methodolgy is not credible ... if you have some additional insight how the trial results are not trustworthy then, agian, I'm all ears. Are the FDA protocols inadequate? Is there a significant chance of fraud in the results?? What is it about these results specifically, that is of concern?
Without further insight into these questions, I hold to my original sentiment that the validity of the science, assessed only in terms of the financing, remains an open question.
Your post seemed to be making a definitive conclusion about the science, so I was just curious if you had any specific insights about the science or rather just inductive reasoning/speculation ... thanks for the clarification that you were making the latter.
"If the science was credible, the incompetent ADSX management would never need to resort to toxic financing"
Hi Marc,
I'm trying to better understand you. Is the main concern the science or management? If the science is not taken as being credible, then what really could *any* management due to ensure long-term value (perhaps other than being better pat deceiving investors and temporarily propping the share price)? More importantly, I'm curious your conerns about the science, especially regarding the India trial evidence?
I'm not a big fan of congress, but I'm curious what specifically they should be doing in this case ... does the FDA have a huge backlog/under-funding that is expected to hold up approval?
If so, is there any indication which way things could go? ... I'm admittedly not very knowledgeable about this area, so any further details into your thinking is appreciated.
I thinks its in EVERYBODY's opinion and expectation they need a better selection of movies than is on the BETA release ... which gets back to the original question.
Anywone have an idea how progress is coming to launch, with one of the main things being the inclusion of partner movies, etc... ?
(Its too bad there is no place for us longs to have a sincere and balanced discussion of without this continous supply of mud-slinging and distraction.)
Results were out with only 5 units sold ... I nearly bought but there is also an upcoming financing required (I think) which might proide some ultra-cheapies.
Should start getting some sales soon in Europe, and/or insurance coverage in Canada , China developments ... etc ... we all know this but lots to like longer-term.
Thanks for the deep and thoughtful analysis and demonstration of critical thinking skills.
Malc with all the jumping to conclusions, one-sidedness, mis-information, lack of questioning, disregard for opposing view points, distraction from the main issues, failure to acknowledge uncertainty, etc, that is found all over these boards, your commitment to a balanced view and critical thinking is admired and appreciated ...
Just had to say that!
I can't access FB ... are there any more details or thoughts into this partnership?
Does Safeway have locations there?
We better call Eric to use his connections however possible to get Yoko to shut down her Twitter account pronto!
Imagine the 0.1% of sales we might lose!!
Thanks Husky! I'm in the same boat ... I've been working a lot of OT this week and have had no chance whatsoever ... we'll get to it when we get to it!
I guess HHSE was a better investment than NTEK last Friday, but NTEK is now a better investment than HHSE today ... lol.
XIN - sold my shares for a very good again... significant dilution (first ever) announced today that I don't well-understand the purpose ... games to buy back shares and pay dividend only to turn around and re-issue.
I'm a bit surprised there has not been more drop, but I guess the discount was not too siginficant and the loan provides some credibility.
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=58946408&symbol=XIN
Xinyuan Real Estate Announces Strategic Investment from TPG
PrintAlert
Xinyuan Real Estate CO Ltd American Depositary Shares (NYSE:XIN)
Intraday Stock Chart
Today : Monday 26 August 2013
BEIJING, Aug. 26, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. (NYSE: XIN, "Xinyuan" or "the Company"), a real estate developer with a focus on high growth cities in China, announced today that the Company has entered into an agreement with TPG, one of the world's leading private investment firms, under which TPG will invest US$108.6 million through the purchase of convertible notes and common shares.
Under the agreement, TPG has agreed to purchase 1) convertible notes due 2018 in the aggregate principal amount of US$75.8 million, and 2) US$32.9 million worth of common shares. The convertible notes carry an annual cash coupon rate of 5.0% and will be convertible into Xinyuan's common shares at an initial conversion price of US$6.00 per ADS. The common shares will be issued at US$5.48 per ADS. Taking into account the common shares and assuming the convertible notes are fully converted, TPG will hold a total of 18.6 million ADSs post transaction on a fully diluted basis, equivalent to approximately 20% of the Company's total share capital taking into account the investment by TPG. In accordance with the terms of the purchase agreement, TPG will be entitled to nominate one non-executive director to Xinyuan's board of directors following the investment.
Subject to and upon closing, Xinyuan will receive US$108.6 million of gross proceeds from the issuance of the convertible notes and the sale of common shares, which will be used, among other purposes, for land acquisition and general corporate purposes to support further development of the Company. Closing of the private placement is subject to customary closing conditions.
Mr. Yong Zhang, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Xinyuan, said, "We welcome the investment from TPG and see significant upside to partnering with TPG to achieve our growth objectives. With this investment, we believe that we are in a position to expand our land acquisitions while also continuing to develop our internal infrastructure and operational capabilities. We believe this long-term partnership will not only further strengthen Xinyuan's financial situation but also be highly beneficial for our development in the long run."
Steve Sun, Partner and Managing Director of TPG, said, "We are impressed by Xinyuan's solid financial position and experienced management team and look forward to providing our resources and experience to help Xinyuan achieve its strategic objectives. We believe Xinyuan is well positioned to continue to deliver growth and solidify its position in its key markets going forward, and we look forward to a productive partnership."
About Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. (NYSE:XIN)
Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. ("Xinyuan") (NYSE: XIN) is a developer of large scale, high quality residential real estate projects aimed at providing middle-income consumers with a comfortable and convenient community lifestyle. In China, Xinyuan primarily focuses its development projects in Tier II cities, Zhengzhou, Ji'nan, Suzhou, Kunshan, Xuzhou, Chengdu and Hefei. The Company's U.S. development arm, XIN Development Group International, Inc. ("XIN Int."), is a pioneer amongst Chinese real estate residential developers, entering the US market in 2012. Xinyuan is the first real estate developer from China to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange. For more information, please visit http://en.xyre.com/ir.html.
About TPG
TPG is a leading global private investment firm founded in 1992 with $55.3 billion of assets under management and offices in San Francisco, Fort Worth, Austin, Beijing, Chongqing, Hong Kong, London, Luxembourg, Melbourne, Moscow, Mumbai, New York, Paris, São Paulo, Shanghai, Singapore and Tokyo. TPG has extensive experience with global public and private investments executed through leveraged buyouts, recapitalizations, spinouts, growth investments, joint ventures and restructurings. The firm's investments span a variety of industries including financial services, travel and entertainment, technology, energy, industrials, retail, consumer, real estate, media and communications, and healthcare. TPG's investments in China have included China Grand Auto, China International Capital Corporation, Daphne, Lenovo, Shenzhen Development Bank (currently Ping An Bank), Wumart, Li Ning, HCP Holdings, among others. TPG's investments in the real estate sector have included Taylor Morrison Home Corporattion, Parkway Properties, Shriram Properties, M West Holdings, Merin, ST Residential, Assisted Living Concepts and AV Homes, among others.
Hi Jugy,
I'm surprised you have not commented about Football now being available at Walmart online ... that was one of your big concerns you had raised.
Anyway, I've responded to ALL your questions, so I'm hoping you'll return the favor and respond to my one question at the bottom.
**********************************
"Origin Releasing actually have their products in Walmart. Good for them and I guess they are pretty elite also, huh?"
Yes, the vast majority of micro-caps would love to sell their goods at Walmart so they are VERY fortunate in that regard.
***********************************
"Right so we shouldn't expect much from a 2013 Backrazor dvd. Thanks for confirming my point. Could and potential don't me jack squat. Tweleve, TiTa and Turtle had potential and look what happened to that"
I never said that. Your original question was whether or not I expect the 2013 football DVD to "sell well for years.". The DVD is meant as a PREVIEW so I don't think anyone would disagree its shelf life is short-term. If by 'sell well' you mean substantially profitable, then yes the DVD could sell well in the near term. I'm very happy to see the company explore this additional revenue stream!
About TITA, if you agree (1) it had potential (2) the main issue was that potential was not realized because it did not make it to Walmart (3) the Walmart issue has been addressed, then potential of future releases is indeed relevant.
*****************************************
"Has anyone actually seen the football dvd in walmart? Has anyone gotten a copy they ordered online from Walmart? "
I've seen photographic evidence that the football dvd is in walmart and have heard nobody claim otherwise. Perhaps you read my post but I ordered the DVD online but have not yet received it. I'm not too concerned, as I would expect 99% of awareness and sales to be generated from folks seeing the DVDs on display at the stores. From a financial perspective, this is a non-issue.
****************************************
"Exactly. No one knows it will be done after 2+ years of it will be done soon. "
I agree but I also said that there would be significant upside if/when the audit is released, which you failed to acknowledge. There is evidence both ways so we all have our own opinion how likely it is. I personally think the chance of an audit (significant long-term upside) is MUCH higher than the chance of bankruptcy (significant long-term downside), so I really like the risk/reward!
****************************************
"Learned their lessons? What about AFIL? They still owe money on that don't they? What about Thru the Moebius Strip? They had to pay out for that and they didn't even release it. So much for learning. "
I don't know the financial impact of AFIL but I don't think they invested a lot upfront like TWELVE, so i'm not sure your evidence there was a loss for the title ... I'm open to seeing the evidence, but keep in mind the DVD sales must be considered.
Thru the Mobius? If you want to discuss that, you'll need to share more info about what was the issue, financial impact, and the implications going forward. I've seen hardly any discussion about this one title, so I'm assuming for now there is not significant reason to be concerned. If however, you believe it is a significant concern, let's get the board involved in a separate thread as others would know more than me.
**********************************
You:"Do you believe their library valuation? "
Me: "The valuation is a prediction, not a definable amount, so -- by definition -- it cannot be accurate to the dollar. "
You: "Prediction. Right."
I might have better said 'estimate' instead of 'prediction' (although the estimate is derived from predictions). Are you saying the library valuation is not an estimate and that it should be expected to be accurate to the dollar? I don't understand.
**********************************
Me: " What do you think a reasonable valuation of the company given the specific revenue streams for the upcoming releases and the various partnerships? "
You:"What partnerships? TCA put up $5mm for HHSE and has a lien against its library. So it might be worth that at the most. Any other questions you need me to answer? "
One question, which I'd think you'd agree is important. What are your revenue forecasts for -- say -- what you think are the top 5-10 upcoming revenue streams? Of course, this would be an estimate so -- if you'd like -- you could provide a range based on (reasonably) optimistic and (reasonably) pessimistic assumptions.
Perhaps one day, you'll provide the same courtesy..!
"If you have to go through another party to get your products into Walmart, it isn't AS elite nor special, don't you agree?"
I don't agree .. you are correct its not very Elite for a Sony or Disney to have products at Walmart ... but its EXTREMELY elite for a microcap like HHSE to have many products at Walmart. (But I guess, to answer your question as it was phrased, it's technically not AS super-duper elite as if they were doing it more directly ... so you got me there, I guess??)
"You really think a 2013 dvd for a college team is going to be a huge seller and will sell well for years? " No, but a series of 2014, 2015, 2016 series of DVDs could sell VERY well. We'll soon see, but this potential certainly doesn't hurt!
"How badly did they botch the TITA dvd release?"
I'm not sure what happened, but the outcome was pretty bad as TITA had LOTS of potential and that one release, unfortunately, never made the shelves at Walmart... but whatever the issue was at Walmart seems to be remedied as seen by the football release so I'm not too concerned longer-term.
"Is the audit and Form 10 actually going to be completed this year? Why would someone believe that? " That's been debated to death here and we'll be going back and forth 50 times ... I don't have proof it will happen and I certainly don't have proof it won't happen. If the audit comes out, there is huge upside potential, much more than downside risk given the very low-market cap.
"It's been almost a year since they put a movie into theatres. Do you think they have given up on theatrical releases because every one they've released has flopped."
I don't necessarily agree the premise of your question. I think only Twelve (many years ago) lost signficant money due to all the advertising. They've said explicitly many times that they learned the lesson there, so I'm not too worried as the 'bread and butter' is other avenues. So my answer is the theatrical releases, unless something more specific comes up, is not an important consideration for me at moment. Lots of other stuff happening...
"Do you believe their library valuation? "
The valuation is a prediction, not a definable amount, so -- by definition -- it cannot be accurate to the dollar. Thus, the true value is necessarily more or less than reported but, at a minimum, all those movies look very valuable relative to the marketcap so I'm VERY happy with all those assets.
I answered your laundry list of questions ... but I'll ask you just one. What do you think a reasonable valuation of the company given the specific revenue streams for the upcoming releases and the various partnerships? I've assumed you've put thought into this, so the more details, the better... unless you have not thought it through, then just let us know and we can help.
Yes, TITA did not do well at Walmart BECAUSE IT WAS NOT RELEASED AT WALMART ... thus, how can you draw that comparison???
Football HAS BEEN RELEASED AT WALMART ... it's GREAT news that whatever was the issue has been resolved!!!
And, if sales are good, why not do the same for other teams???
So Razorback football DVDs, however successful in its implementation, won't lead to expansion of the format to other teams because HHSE hasn't recently acquired any theatrical releases?
Am I understanding your thinking, correctly?
If so, then I'm not too worried, as it's much easier to replicate the process to develop/expand the football DVDs than to acquire an expensive (relative to HHSE marketcap) theatrical release.
You said "Remember they don't have a direct relationship with Walmart".
So because their relationship isn't "direct" it's not good news that, unlike TITA, they've placed SEC football at Walmart?
How can selling a product at the world's largest retailer not be good news for a small company like HHSE? I'm still not following and, unless you can provide some explanation, I still hold to my original idea that the Razorback football DVD placement at Walmart is great news!!
Husky ... I reached my 15 post count and could not respond. I got caught up on the war going on at the HHSE board ... its easy to burn through a lot of posts that way!
I don't think there are details on new versus repeat sales but I'm sure the amount of new sales was significant so that could be a negative, as you say, as initial orders are greater.
I previously had some analysis of margins but it's too late to get into that now... I'll try to provide some details the next few days.
Disregarding their targets/forecast, what do you think of the actual sales growth, given the time they have been in business?
Thanks so much, again. If we can quantify what we know and what we assume about future earnings potential, it will be very helpful.
"5 to 8 times EBIDTA is typical for market cap in the beverage industry. Need 7 million minimum in EBIDTA right now to support current market cap."
Is 5 to 8 times for when the company is still at the rapid expansion phase or at later stages when revenue growth has slowed down significantly?
Suppose they were to become "just" cashflow positive next quarter but made ony $100 should the marketcap, depite rapid growth in sales, be only $500?!
Thank you for the input ... this is the type of fundamentals analysis that's really helpful. Could I indulge you in my thoughts more specifically?
1. Sales in April, May and June totalled 126,000 cases.
2. # of store listings from 3-4 months earlier (the lag it takes for a new listing to register sales) was about 10,000 locations.
3. There are now 14,000 store listings with 20,000 projected by year's end (seems reasonable given the trend).
4. 14000/10000 * 126,000 = 176,000 case sales based on listings today.
5. 176000*4 = 704,000 case sales annualized based on listings today.
6. There will surely be more than 14,000 listings and these numbers do not include Pulse so the 1 million annualized case sales forecast seems quite reasonable... distribution to Florida, for instance was only recently announced and I'm not sure the recent numbers include Safeway, which is indeed a major retailer. They turned down Costco which demanded a cheaper price.
I'm certainly not saying you are wrong, but wondering if this more specific information changes your outlook (and, if not, why)? I could be missing something so really appreciate the second set of eyes!
Adam Smith's invisible hand....
You fail to consider that if local sales are successful, then the potential to rollout to other teams is greater.
You also fail to consider this is GTEAT news in confirming, contrary to all the noise raised here, that the Walmart relationship is alive and well! This is not HHSE's only video!
The stock is priced for backruptcy but the ongoing (and growing) business operations certainly indicate otherwise!
What % of sales would you normally expect to be customers actively searching for a Razorback football preview DVDs online versus buys from seeing the DVD on display in the stores?
About 1% vs 99%?
IRE!! (Dont' own any, but happy for you malc...)
Awesome! ... Walmart relationship is Alive and Well!
HHSE. Sweet! ... my biggest concern alleviated ... Walmart relationship is alive and well!!
http://www.hannoverhousemovies.blogspot.com/2013/08/razorbacks-football-dvd-blasts-off-at.html?m=1
Never mind ... found it page 17..
http://www.ypg.com/images/ckeditor/files/Warrant%20Indenture%20(SEDAR%20Version).pdf
lol ... sorry, but these technicals just seem circular reasoning, but I could be wrong. Best of luck to you...
For the stock to go up, it needs to go up.
If it does not go up, it won't go up until there is evidence that its going up.
I need to learn something here, it seems. Since the stock is trading below the warrant strike price, wouldn't they expire useless if the company is bought out? ... I guess that does not make sense as, under that scenario warrant holders would be screwed by a buyout ..
May I ask, how is the buyout price for the warrants determined?
I think there is a lot to like:
1. Sales lag new listings by about 3-4 months, so the potential looks quite good for continued growth for EOY. Safeway was announced only last May so I'm very looking forward to those numbers being included. (I did some extrapolation of listings to sales, but forget the numbers offhand but their aggressive goals looked attainable).
2. They cancelled their need for financing and look to soon be cash-flow positive.
3. I like the niche and marketing ... my wife loves Stevia, which they use in part as a sweetner. Stores are filled with teas and sports drinks but I dont't see any low-calorie lemonade.
4. A lot is just marketing, and Cabana I think is a brilliant name ... evokes being on vacation.
5. They've acheived critical mass and per-unit costs have being dropping and margins should continue to improve.
6. Pulse has just been lauched ... has a higher margin and only non-dairy drink to include fat-soluable vitamins.
Yes, and even worse it seems to track HHSE so my portfolio has had some very crazy swings!
Totally off-topic, but I ordered a case of cabana lemonades today (now available online). I'll let you know if they are good...
http://www.pulsebeverage.com/
I just ordered some Cabanas ... !