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Larry,
What happened in July 05 which is very similar to now.
[look at an SMH daily chart]
04/05 - major bottom same in 10/05
05/05 - rally begins same in 11/05
06/05 - rally tops same in 12/05
07/05 - next leg up same in 01/06 ????
08/05 - 3 mo decline same in 02/06 ????
Yes, we 'look' toppy - but we did at start of next leg up in 07/05 as well.
Going short was the wrong move, so was selling.
You must be careful not to miss the ride while indicators are signalling 'false tops'. This is now a momentum move where $ will chase stocks up and it will only end when all the chasers are fully invested - then go short - bigtime!!!!!
I believe the next leg has just started and will top out at month-end [as 07/05 did], then to be followed by a long decline/consolidation as fears overtightening by the FED and economic slowdown talk chills the markets.
Jim Kirksey
Time to buy - breakaway panic on SOX due to a few culprits.
Pushed below lower BB. This is a washout!
INTC should really get SMH going - semi equips a little more problematic.
Gee, Kudlow likens oil to Nasdaq top! As I said yesterday.
New quarter - can tech finally get a rally going?
We still have clear sailing to new recovery highs!!!!!
Semi should not get overbought until we get there.
I am getting pretty sick of this - irresponsible comments about $100 oil, etc. - NASDAQ 10K talk was a top - Oil $100 - hmmmm. definite top?
MACD's will signal buy within 2 days - but low was 5 days ago!
BB's will permit move to new recovery highs and it should be quick as $ rush in and shorts cover.
Heck of a day, but nothing yet - watch INTC put on a move tomorrow - seems to wait until 2nd day to make a good initial jump.
Pessimism was so deep that this will be a breakout rally through 11K on DJI - despite car sales.
Gee thanks - see 4275 - yes that was the bottom and the recent test has held [still talking about same bottom].
I believe I did a good job on the Jan bottom making those SMH's pan out.
I expect the same this time in the next 2 weeks - SMH 35's and INTC 25's go into the money.
Whipsaw victim! Break of support shakes out weak hands who dumped on cue in last hour. Now stage is set for semi rally. MACD peaked [negative] then narrowed, had dip and now poised to give a buy with 3 days!
I am adding all I can to semi calls for this rally - at least another 50K. SMH April 35's look real good to go into the money!
Current dip should hold recent low with rally starting tomorrow or Thursday leading into employment report - which should kick things into gear.
When they start to move - they will move fast!
Certianly looks good to me - should see some major semi moves
Look for new higher highs - especially INTC
I have 2000 INTC Apr 25's - looking for 27 by expiration
RSI did not make 30 - good - higher bottom
SMH looking to give MACD buy in 3 to 4 trading days
But price bottoms appear to be in place
So buy low - sell high [so buy now not after we move up!]
Semis making turn - bottom is in - what will FED do?
They should [must] not raise rates!
Enough is enough - too many loans tied to short term rates.
GM problems cannot be fanned by another rate increase.
Housing will slow on its own as willing buyers at high prices dry up.
Looks like it to me as well - have already committed April cash and will be rolling over some last Mar calls into more Aprils.
Seemd to be a lot of late dumping in semis yesterday - blocks on close. You can bet market makers let the bottom out to pick up the shares and will gap them back today for instant profits. CROOKS!
That was quick - now SMH/SOX on plus side - added NVLS
Now fully invested for April options cycle.
With $ coming out of bug cap cyclicals [GM news] it will have a reason to look for growth in tech!!!!!!!
Building is getting saturated and its slowdown will cause plummet in interest rates - only fear - talk of reccession.
Expect no more raises from the FED.
Bought calls on XLNX, INTC, KLAC and MXIM - BRCM off the buy list
I am calling a bottom on semis right now with gap down open
SOX bounces off lower BB - SMH has not hit its yet - but close
Is all this Greenspook gloom just the right environment to run stocks while the lambs fret?
Has semi-10 gone below 10 intraday?
SMH SOX downside limited - 33.02 or so and 423.48 or so to lower BB's. Lower BB's rising sharply [not falling] a bullish BB pattern.
Not the broadening top of late as opposed to the peaks we have seen so often. I see more of a base than a top - usually a good head fake before a breakout - TWT.
Was Friday's fall all inflation related or TECD?????
We will see as oil pulls back as cold snap eases.
We had highs 7 degrees higher than forecast yesterday!
Larry, keep posting semi-10 on Monday - they could be crucial in signaling a bottom?
Larry, where do we stand on semi 10?
not so fast apparently - dealers have to load up on stock first?????
TXN damaged goods - Q: can XLNX news more than counter TXN reaction?
This is a test of the semi/tech resolve. I expect semis to more than recover the losses of Tue.
Expectations are that Feb/Mar was/is the inventory correction trough.
Larry - perhaps start positng how many semis that have hit recent highs higher than they were at Nov/Dec SMH peaks - start with INTC, TXN, KLAC, NVLS, .......
With SMH near its DEC high, some of the above list [whether SMH/SOX member] must be above their DEC highs!
Not TXN - other semis - looks like bottom in, so let's see what they can do to rally them.
BUY any TXN caused dip!!!!!!!!!
Semis are in favor and $ are pouring into tech funds.
TXN news only due to DLP not other biz lines which are fine!
NASDAQ is playing catch up to DJI and SPX and will outperform over next several days until it reaches prior peaks.
Then expect some sideways consolidation before N becomes a leader to the D and S.
Semis are certainly struggling for now.
Good pop, then flop.
Comment on semi-equips to blame.
INTC did make new high for this move and now has to best 24.99 Nov peak.
However, a building breakout of DJI / SPX will drag them along.
Better Q: Will DJI SPX breakout and squeeze shorts?
COMPQ, NDX have over 100 points to make up and then more to go to go into the lead.
This 2 week period in March tends to be very bullish.
So to answer your question - NO! - SMH may just break 34.95 today - finally!!!!!! It's only a little more than a point: 3%
INTC very close to new recovery high based on pre-open
NLVS effect: It was a buying opportunity!
Semis are clearly being bought and 34.95 likely to be broken soon - looking like today
NLVS - test of semi resolve today
Looks to me like a buying opportuinity on any weak opening.
Break of SMH 34.95 is just a matter of time [minutes?]
Semis just coming into favor - BIG up move about to occur!
Recent rally consolidated very nicely.
Careful - do not sell too soon - enjoy the move!!!!
Is sell of a week ago not going to have a buy?
If so, top and dip will mean next leg up is missed!
May have put in bottom mid afternoon
How low did semi get?
Test of 20dSMA complete
Some one must be going to upgrade INTC soon
Less to do with the past, more with the future - but something is up with INTC - maybe just someone taking the dip to buy a lot of stock!
INTC single handedly holding up SMH SOX - anyone see any news?
Consolidation over - SMH holds well above gap down open
Look for nice move to chase shorts into w/e
Appears that we have a good intraday base and can attempt a move. [opening drop has held]
BB's still tight - but pressing them for so long is very strong pattern.
So will will we have some short covering and mutual fund buying near close?
Hmmmmmmmmm.
With semi, rsi(6) and $trinq not showing a top - it begs the question that they may be more important than the ones that have signaled, those having done so because of the nature of the rally - perhaps being more than merely a trading rally.
So, in your opinion have we topped - or will we get one more run?
Given very positive talk around semis, I am buying this little dip and looking for one more push before we consolidate the move
SMH to test 33.59 area and should hold