QID - QLD TRENDS (fka )

[J Kirksey]

Larry,

What happened in July 05 which is very similar to now.
[look at an SMH daily chart]

04/05 - major bottom same in 10/05
05/05 - rally begins same in 11/05
06/05 - rally tops same in 12/05
07/05 - next leg up same in 01/06 ????
08/05 - 3 mo decline same in 02/06 ????

Yes, we 'look' toppy - but we did at start of next leg up in 07/05 as well.
Going short was the wrong move, so was selling.

You must be careful not to miss the ride while indicators are signalling 'false tops'. This is now a momentum move where $ will chase stocks up and it will only end when all the chasers are fully invested - then go short - bigtime!!!!!

I believe the next leg has just started and will top out at month-end [as 07/05 did], then to be followed by a long decline/consolidation as fears overtightening by the FED and economic slowdown talk chills the markets.

Jim Kirksey