Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
No, Fox News is THE most biased of them all. Your prediction is just like Trump's 'if we lose the election it was stolen'. It wasn't.
YOU can't guarantee jack shit about questions being provided to Harris, having pulled that lame assertion out of your equally lame ass.
You WISH that would be the excuse for Harris handing Trump his fat fartasourus ass.
Sloppy slapstick; no way she doesn't hear and feel the impact from the initial hit which would cause anyone/EVERYONE to drop the plank before turning around.
ABC News : VP Harris leads Trump 50-46% among all adults and registered voters alike, and 52-46% among likely voters, per latest @ABC News/Ipsos poll.
ABC News @ABC · 3h
Closer assessment shows movement to Harris in some groups when comparing all adults with likely voters.
The vice president numbers grew with women and Black voters, the poll found.
As previously reported, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by a slight 4 percentage points, 50-46%, among all adults and registered voters alike, and by 6 points, 52-46%, among likely voters in the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll. While those numbers are virtually identical, closer assessment shows movement to Harris in some groups when comparing all adults with likely voters -- notably, those younger than 40, younger women in particular and Black people.
This analysis, produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, finds that support for Harris goes from 54% of all adults younger than 40 to 64% of those identified as likely voters. Trump's support, meanwhile, drops from 42% of adults in this age group to 33% of those likely to vote.
That shift is driven largely by women: Harris' support increases from 60% of all women younger than 40 to 73% of those in this age group who are likely to vote. Trump sees a corresponding drop in support, from 35% among all women younger than 40 to 24% of those likely to vote.
Harris has 82% support among all Black people, rising to 93% among those who are likely voters. Trump, for his part, goes from 15% support among all Black people to 7% among those who are likely to vote. Harris also gains among liberals.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-support-rises-voters-poll/story?id=113465657
ABC News : VP Harris leads Trump 50-46% among all adults and registered voters alike, and 52-46% among likely voters, per latest @ABC News/Ipsos poll.
ABC News @ABC · 3h
Closer assessment shows movement to Harris in some groups when comparing all adults with likely voters.
The vice president numbers grew with women and Black voters, the poll found.
As previously reported, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by a slight 4 percentage points, 50-46%, among all adults and registered voters alike, and by 6 points, 52-46%, among likely voters in the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll. While those numbers are virtually identical, closer assessment shows movement to Harris in some groups when comparing all adults with likely voters -- notably, those younger than 40, younger women in particular and Black people.
This analysis, produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, finds that support for Harris goes from 54% of all adults younger than 40 to 64% of those identified as likely voters. Trump's support, meanwhile, drops from 42% of adults in this age group to 33% of those likely to vote.
That shift is driven largely by women: Harris' support increases from 60% of all women younger than 40 to 73% of those in this age group who are likely to vote. Trump sees a corresponding drop in support, from 35% among all women younger than 40 to 24% of those likely to vote.
Harris has 82% support among all Black people, rising to 93% among those who are likely voters. Trump, for his part, goes from 15% support among all Black people to 7% among those who are likely to vote. Harris also gains among liberals.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-support-rises-voters-poll/story?id=113465657
ABC News : VP Harris leads Trump 50-46% among all adults and registered voters alike, and 52-46% among likely voters, per latest @ABC News/Ipsos poll.
ABC News @ABC · 3h
Closer assessment shows movement to Harris in some groups when comparing all adults with likely voters.
The vice president numbers grew with women and Black voters, the poll found.
As previously reported, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by a slight 4 percentage points, 50-46%, among all adults and registered voters alike, and by 6 points, 52-46%, among likely voters in the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll. While those numbers are virtually identical, closer assessment shows movement to Harris in some groups when comparing all adults with likely voters -- notably, those younger than 40, younger women in particular and Black people.
This analysis, produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, finds that support for Harris goes from 54% of all adults younger than 40 to 64% of those identified as likely voters. Trump's support, meanwhile, drops from 42% of adults in this age group to 33% of those likely to vote.
That shift is driven largely by women: Harris' support increases from 60% of all women younger than 40 to 73% of those in this age group who are likely to vote. Trump sees a corresponding drop in support, from 35% among all women younger than 40 to 24% of those likely to vote.
Harris has 82% support among all Black people, rising to 93% among those who are likely voters. Trump, for his part, goes from 15% support among all Black people to 7% among those who are likely to vote. Harris also gains among liberals.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-support-rises-voters-poll/story?id=113465657
ABC News : VP Harris leads Trump 50-46% among all adults and registered voters alike, and 52-46% among likely voters, per latest @ABC News/Ipsos poll.
ABC News @ABC · 3h
Closer assessment shows movement to Harris in some groups when comparing all adults with likely voters.
The vice president numbers grew with women and Black voters, the poll found.
As previously reported, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by a slight 4 percentage points, 50-46%, among all adults and registered voters alike, and by 6 points, 52-46%, among likely voters in the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll. While those numbers are virtually identical, closer assessment shows movement to Harris in some groups when comparing all adults with likely voters -- notably, those younger than 40, younger women in particular and Black people.
This analysis, produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, finds that support for Harris goes from 54% of all adults younger than 40 to 64% of those identified as likely voters. Trump's support, meanwhile, drops from 42% of adults in this age group to 33% of those likely to vote.
That shift is driven largely by women: Harris' support increases from 60% of all women younger than 40 to 73% of those in this age group who are likely to vote. Trump sees a corresponding drop in support, from 35% among all women younger than 40 to 24% of those likely to vote.
Harris has 82% support among all Black people, rising to 93% among those who are likely voters. Trump, for his part, goes from 15% support among all Black people to 7% among those who are likely to vote. Harris also gains among liberals.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-support-rises-voters-poll/story?id=113465657
Lard Is Back In The Larder, But Hold The Health Claims
May 2, 20124:14 PM ET
By
Nancy Shute
https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2012/05/02/151868208/lard-is-back-in-the-larder-but-hold-the-health-claims
Could you taste the lard in a freshly-baked crust?
Wait, we don't have to do this any more? What's a semiautomatic? MORE than 3 shots in a minute? What's a magazine? WTF is a school shooting?! Original intent, really? You think any of us saw any of that coming?
Somebody told us about Applebee's. Can we please get something to eat before our moment with you nut-jobs is up?
I treat it with the contempt that it deserves, demands.
It's a euphemism for 'not the sharpest knife in the drawer'.
Can AI identify low intelligence on opinion boards? (How I translated 'ulterior motives' as correlative with low intelligence in forming the question I put to ChatGPT.)
Long story short Chat declines to conclude 'low intelligence' as the cause of the bat shit posts our RW trolls plague us with. But they do accurately identify/confirm what we read and respond to. They are a kindred spirit and oh how they nail it, AND Trump. 😏
ChatGPT said:
AI can help analyze patterns in opinion boards and detect certain behaviors or characteristics that might be associated with lower-quality reasoning or limited cognitive complexity, but it cannot directly measure "intelligence" in the traditional sense. Intelligence is a complex, multi-dimensional trait involving reasoning, problem-solving, emotional understanding, and many other factors. AI doesn't have access to these deeper cognitive or emotional aspects directly, but here are a few ways it can provide insights:
Language Complexity: AI can assess the complexity of language used in posts, such as vocabulary range, sentence structure, and coherence. Simpler, repetitive language or logical fallacies could correlate with lower-quality reasoning, but not necessarily lower intelligence.
Logical Consistency: AI can evaluate whether arguments are logically sound or whether they contain contradictions, fallacies, or unsupported assertions. Poor logical consistency might indicate a lack of deeper thought or understanding of the topic.
Emotional or Reactionary Responses: AI can analyze sentiment to see whether someone responds more emotionally than logically. Reactionary or overly emotional posts without substantive argumentation could suggest a different level of engagement or reasoning.
Use of Evidence: AI could detect whether individuals back up their opinions with facts, data, or sources. Lack of evidence might suggest a weaker approach to critical thinking, though again, this does not directly translate to intelligence.
Pattern Recognition of Misinformation: If someone consistently repeats debunked claims or conspiracy theories, AI might flag this as a potential indicator of lower critical reasoning or susceptibility to misinformation.
That said, identifying "low intelligence" is highly subjective and ethically complex. AI can provide clues about the quality of engagement or the depth of thought but should avoid making deterministic judgments about intelligence. The goal of AI should be to improve the quality of discourse, not label individuals.
Some people EARN denigration, even lawful prosecution, when they actively work at undercutting democracy and at denying elections.
Well, they're clearly half-wits to start with; so a head start toward useful idiot.
As a Canadian I am shocked by the numbers of Americans that have allowed themselves to become useful idiots to a despot.
.. "unwitting" figures in the Russian scheme, which allegedly paid some commentators hundreds of thousands of dollars a month to make videos for the platform.
Now on it's way to WA state to the newly constructed 'Boeing WTF Happened Center' built in response to the growing number of mishaps of Boeing air and aerospace equipment during active service.😏
I went to Fox News looking for 'corroboration' that the guy IS the current DOJ Chief of Public Affairs. No story.
Did find this though, ON Fox News.
A little pee on your Cheerios?
Allan Lichtman predicts Harris as 2024 winner because 'Democrats got smart' and did this
American University historian who predicted Trump’s 2016 win thinks Harris will be victorious
Greg Norman By Greg Norman Fox News
2 min read
Published September 7, 2024 8:44am EDT
The American University historian who has correctly predicted the outcomes of nine of the last ten presidential elections tells Fox News Digital that the Democrats "finally got smart" by rallying around Kamala Harris as their candidate – and that is one of the reasons why he thinks she will be November’s winner.
The formula Allan Lichtman has used to correctly predict nearly every presidential race since 1984, his "Keys to the White House," was developed in 1981 with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok and is based on their analysis of presidential elections dating back to 1860. The "keys" consist of 13 true or false questions, parameters that, if true, favor stability.
"The way it works is real simple. If six or more keys -- any six -- go against the White House party, they are predicted losers. Otherwise, they're predicted winners," Lichtman told Fox News Digital this week. "And by the way, this also led to a prediction of Donald Trump's win, which made me virtually alone in making that prediction in 2016."
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/allan-lichtman-predicts-harris-2024-winner-because-democrats-got-smart-did
Tell us the difference between reality and a fact of life. There isn't any, those are distinctions without a difference.
You make yourself sick through a shit education that exposes you to the deserved abuse you elicit here.
Now you tell me how fucking stupid does one have to be to refer to school shootings as a 'fake problem'?
That was in my post. Why did you leave it on your cherry tree?
Vance, who noted that the event was an “awful tragedy,” faced criticism in June for calling gun violence in schools a “fake problem” and called an attempt to ban bump stocks, used in the Las Vegas shooting that killed 60, a “huge distraction.”
Strange Bedfellows and Useful Idiots. And Some Third Thing, Probably.
Friday, September 6th, 2024
by Shower Cap | American Madness Journal
https://showercapblog.com/strange-bedfellows-and-useful-idiots-and-some-third-thing-probably/
So, this blog site went live exactly seven years ago today, aiming to chronicle the kookiness of the kakistocracy-curious creeps who’d infested my beloved country’s government. And after each and every post, my most fervent wish has been to run out of material, to turn y’all away with a mournful “Outside of a brief, largely courteous Wyden/Romney spat over public land use, nothing of note occurred this week, sorry.”
…well, maybe next time.
A lot has changed in those seven years. For instance, though it feels like ancient history nowadays, once upon a time, our political press believed an aging politician’s merest slip of the tongue merited days of breathless commentary; now, a visibly decomposing septuagenarian can yammer incoherently on the leading issues of the day, indeed, can belch up gibberish that’s barely discernible as English, with nary a mention in the morning paper.
Shoot, he can even forget who he’s running against, and not one single column demanding his immediate withdrawal from the race will appear! Silly rabbit, standards are for Democrats!
And sure, he took no questions at the latest “press conference” he duped the media into attending, opting instead to utilize their proffered platform to further defame and harass several of the women he’s sexually assaulted, but on the other hand, ethically and substantially equal in every way to the previously mentioned rapey hand, Kamala Harris appears to have flip-flopped on the issue of paper straws.
At said “press conference,” the preferred candidate of American evangelicals dismissed one of his many accusers, by saying, “She would not have been the chosen one.”
“The chosen one.”
(This space left blank to give the reader time to wipe the vomit off their keyboard/screen)
He won’t rape just anybody, y’know. You have to look more than a little like his daughter, (the hot one, not Tiffany) for a start. Then, you gotta pass a cognitive test. Yes, all of it, even the really tough bits, with the drawings of farm animals.
As this adjudicated rapist, this felon 34 times over, schleps and whines and sleep-farts his way from trial to trial, (congrats on the sentencing delay, by the way) it’s worth noting that one cop-killer whose sentence he commuted has already been convicted again, this time of assaulting his wife. Of course, you wouldn’t see shenanigans like that in a second Trump term, not under Attorney General Enrique Tarrio.
“Sometimes you need a strongman,” proclaimed the weakest man alive, retreating into his favorite fantasy, the one where Viktor Orbán swaddles him in a blanket, and whisks him away to his magical castle in Hungary, where dictators get the most ice cream scoops no matter what, and absolutely no prosecutors, special or otherwise, are allowed, enforced by a dragon.
Republican thoughts and prayers once again failed to prevent the latest school shooting, further evidence that they are idiots, despised by God.
It’s hard to blame Him. To JD Vance, all this eminently preventable carnage is merely a “fact of life,” so I guess the rest of the developed world is populated by some superior life form, one less willing to see its children butchered, if perhaps a trifle incapable of accurately evaluating the worth of Oasis tickets.
“Sure as the tide rolls in, kids who’ve already been investigated by the FBI for threatening a school shooting will receive semi-automatic rifles as Xmas gifts,” hectored JD, “Are we supposed to ban Santa Claus?”
Vance’s proposed solution? You guessed it, MORE GUNS in schools, only with ivermectin-laced bullets now, so the slaughtered children won’t have to worry about Covid, or worms. Because being death cult clergy means never having to say a single word that makes a lick of fucking sense.
The estate of Isaac Hayes joined the ever-lengthening list of entities to defeat the Dotard in court, though I suppose if you can’t even overturn one measly presidential election, what chance would you possibly have against Black Moses? And look, ABBA and Céline Dion wait in the wings, for their own turn with the paddle of copyright law.
Without the benefit of intellectual property protections, we may have to fall back upon constitutional provisions against cruel and unusual punishment to safeguard the public from Tom Petty-defiling RNC Chair Lara Trump’s latest single.
On the other hand, maybe if we feed it into these newfangled AI thingamajigs, it’ll short ‘em out from within. On the other other hand, that might be precisely the sort of thing that would lead a machine intelligence to determine humanity is a menace in immediate need of total eradication.
Melania’s got a memoir coming out, too. I was able to obtain an advance copy, and I think it might surprise you. The chapter where she discusses her husband’s brush with Covid-19 was particularly moving. All those long, lonely nights, listlessly perusing the prenup…riveting stuff.
Nick Fuentes doesn’t understand where it all went so wrong. His Turd Emperor told him they stole the 2020 election from him, and would a rapist who stole from charity and cheated on multiple wives and stiffed contractors and defrauded banks and insurers lie? I mean sure, he lied about crowd size and colluding with Russia and September 11th and the path of a hurricane, but would he lie about the integrity of our federal elections?
One wonders if falling for such a blatant con might lead young Nickward to question his belief in his own racial supremacy. Barring that, one wonders how to get in touch with him regarding the opportunities for profit Amway offers.
Furious indignation reverberated throughout the right-wing disinformation ecosystem, in the wake of revelations that many of MAGA media’s leading dipshits have been “unwittingly” operating as useful idiots for Vlad Putin’s murderous regime.
“WHERE’S MY CUT?” demanded Tulsi Gabbard. “I spread way more Kremlin propaganda,” whinged Candace Owens, “Besides, Tim Pool’s just gonna spend those rubles on beanies and waifu pillows!”“Tell Mr. Putin it would probably be easiest if he wrote the check directly to the Sandy Hook families I terrorized,” bleated Alex Jones.
Of course, it’s Pool, and Benny Johnson, and their ilk, who’re the Real Victims Here™️, according to a bunch of Republicans who’re definitely not sweating over the idea of DoJ looking into their own revenue streams. Sorry, Senator Rubio, “preexisting political opinions” aren’t covered under the Foreign Agents Registration Act.
Golly, It’s getting so’s an enterprising young wingnut grifter can’t even engorge himself at the trough of a hostile foreign power. Why, mean ol’ Merrick even indicted Dimitri Simes, longtime advisor to Senator Rand Paul, and Individual One himself.
Tucker Carlson, having all but dissipated into irrelevancy, sat seething on the sofa, watching Jesse Watters diddle away his diligently indoctrinated prime time Fox audience on garden-variety MRA piffle about the inherent girlymanness of drinking a “vanilla ice cream shake” through a straw*, and knew he’d need a big, fat, dumb stunt to win back the attention of the rubes he lost in his acrimonious divorce from the Murdochs.
Enter Holocaust revisionist Darryl Cooper. Revisionist, rather than outright denialist, in that he believes the Holocaust happened, but that it was Churchill’s fault, for being such a meanie to Hitler, who only wanted everyone to have bunnies and cupcakes and hugs. (Much nicer than fuddy-duddy Winston’s blood, toil, tears, and sweat, I’m sure you’ll agree.)
Which is horseshit, of course, but if there’s one thing white supremacists love, it’s being lied to, (see Fuentes, Nick) especially about their loser movement’s loser history. And if you don’t believe me, I’ve got seven years’ worth of blog archives to prove it.
Anyway, Tucker definitely got the attention he wanted, so much so that JD Vance said, “Me next!” because he wanted to sit in the Hitler apologist’s chair while it was still warm. Also probably to sniff it, but I imagine they’ll edit that part out.
Terrible news, comrades! That damnable Ron Johnson uncovered the truth about our dastardly Deep State proto-Jade Helm known as the “Great Depression.” Ah, we were fools to believe we could ever slip anything past a genius of such caliber, particularly after he single-handedly unmasked our elaborate “pandemic” hoax.
An armed standoff between McDonald’s Truthers (who believe Kamala Harris never worked at McDonald’s) and Accent Truthers (who believe Kamala Harris uses a fake southern accent) thankfully ended without bloodshed, when the leaders of the two factions met face to face, and realized they were the Bundy brothers.
Seems North Carolina Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson may have a few skeletons in his closet, though they are believed to be safely hidden behind the mountains of pornographic videocassettes, and the stolen Girl Scout cookies.
With Liz and Dick Cheney endorsing Vice President Harris, Team Rapist unveiled some defectors of their own: a few distant cousins of Tim Walz, take that, libtards! They may not be able to pass fifth grade English, but at least they got to meet Hulk Hogan. (UPDATE: it’s been brought to my attention that they did not actually get to meet Hulk Hogan. In my defense, I made that up.)
A fistfight broke out at a Saline County, Arkansas Republican Committee meeting, because these lil’ guys get crabby if you don’t let ‘em run around in the yard, maybe violently disrupt a government proceeding now and then. You’re lucky they didn’t shit on the floor.
Okay, I’m off to celebrate my seventh blogiversary, by binge drinking until I can wrap my head around how I wound up in a coalition with Dick Freakin’ Cheney.
*REAL men dip their balls in their milkshake, absorbing it through scrotal osmosis.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2024/09/05/tim-walz-milkshake-masculinity-jesse-watters-straw-fox-news/75089097007/
Strange Bedfellows and Useful Idiots. And Some Third Thing, Probably.
Friday, September 6th, 2024
by Shower Cap | American Madness Journal
https://showercapblog.com/strange-bedfellows-and-useful-idiots-and-some-third-thing-probably/
So, this blog site went live exactly seven years ago today, aiming to chronicle the kookiness of the kakistocracy-curious creeps who’d infested my beloved country’s government. And after each and every post, my most fervent wish has been to run out of material, to turn y’all away with a mournful “Outside of a brief, largely courteous Wyden/Romney spat over public land use, nothing of note occurred this week, sorry.”
…well, maybe next time.
A lot has changed in those seven years. For instance, though it feels like ancient history nowadays, once upon a time, our political press believed an aging politician’s merest slip of the tongue merited days of breathless commentary; now, a visibly decomposing septuagenarian can yammer incoherently on the leading issues of the day, indeed, can belch up gibberish that’s barely discernible as English, with nary a mention in the morning paper.
Shoot, he can even forget who he’s running against, and not one single column demanding his immediate withdrawal from the race will appear! Silly rabbit, standards are for Democrats!
And sure, he took no questions at the latest “press conference” he duped the media into attending, opting instead to utilize their proffered platform to further defame and harass several of the women he’s sexually assaulted, but on the other hand, ethically and substantially equal in every way to the previously mentioned rapey hand, Kamala Harris appears to have flip-flopped on the issue of paper straws.
At said “press conference,” the preferred candidate of American evangelicals dismissed one of his many accusers, by saying, “She would not have been the chosen one.”
“The chosen one.”
(This space left blank to give the reader time to wipe the vomit off their keyboard/screen)
He won’t rape just anybody, y’know. You have to look more than a little like his daughter, (the hot one, not Tiffany) for a start. Then, you gotta pass a cognitive test. Yes, all of it, even the really tough bits, with the drawings of farm animals.
As this adjudicated rapist, this felon 34 times over, schleps and whines and sleep-farts his way from trial to trial, (congrats on the sentencing delay, by the way) it’s worth noting that one cop-killer whose sentence he commuted has already been convicted again, this time of assaulting his wife. Of course, you wouldn’t see shenanigans like that in a second Trump term, not under Attorney General Enrique Tarrio.
“Sometimes you need a strongman,” proclaimed the weakest man alive, retreating into his favorite fantasy, the one where Viktor Orbán swaddles him in a blanket, and whisks him away to his magical castle in Hungary, where dictators get the most ice cream scoops no matter what, and absolutely no prosecutors, special or otherwise, are allowed, enforced by a dragon.
Republican thoughts and prayers once again failed to prevent the latest school shooting, further evidence that they are idiots, despised by God.
It’s hard to blame Him. To JD Vance, all this eminently preventable carnage is merely a “fact of life,” so I guess the rest of the developed world is populated by some superior life form, one less willing to see its children butchered, if perhaps a trifle incapable of accurately evaluating the worth of Oasis tickets.
“Sure as the tide rolls in, kids who’ve already been investigated by the FBI for threatening a school shooting will receive semi-automatic rifles as Xmas gifts,” hectored JD, “Are we supposed to ban Santa Claus?”
Vance’s proposed solution? You guessed it, MORE GUNS in schools, only with ivermectin-laced bullets now, so the slaughtered children won’t have to worry about Covid, or worms. Because being death cult clergy means never having to say a single word that makes a lick of fucking sense.
The estate of Isaac Hayes joined the ever-lengthening list of entities to defeat the Dotard in court, though I suppose if you can’t even overturn one measly presidential election, what chance would you possibly have against Black Moses? And look, ABBA and Céline Dion wait in the wings, for their own turn with the paddle of copyright law.
Without the benefit of intellectual property protections, we may have to fall back upon constitutional provisions against cruel and unusual punishment to safeguard the public from Tom Petty-defiling RNC Chair Lara Trump’s latest single.
On the other hand, maybe if we feed it into these newfangled AI thingamajigs, it’ll short ‘em out from within. On the other other hand, that might be precisely the sort of thing that would lead a machine intelligence to determine humanity is a menace in immediate need of total eradication.
Melania’s got a memoir coming out, too. I was able to obtain an advance copy, and I think it might surprise you. The chapter where she discusses her husband’s brush with Covid-19 was particularly moving. All those long, lonely nights, listlessly perusing the prenup…riveting stuff.
Nick Fuentes doesn’t understand where it all went so wrong. His Turd Emperor told him they stole the 2020 election from him, and would a rapist who stole from charity and cheated on multiple wives and stiffed contractors and defrauded banks and insurers lie? I mean sure, he lied about crowd size and colluding with Russia and September 11th and the path of a hurricane, but would he lie about the integrity of our federal elections?
One wonders if falling for such a blatant con might lead young Nickward to question his belief in his own racial supremacy. Barring that, one wonders how to get in touch with him regarding the opportunities for profit Amway offers.
Furious indignation reverberated throughout the right-wing disinformation ecosystem, in the wake of revelations that many of MAGA media’s leading dipshits have been “unwittingly” operating as useful idiots for Vlad Putin’s murderous regime.
“WHERE’S MY CUT?” demanded Tulsi Gabbard. “I spread way more Kremlin propaganda,” whinged Candace Owens, “Besides, Tim Pool’s just gonna spend those rubles on beanies and waifu pillows!”“Tell Mr. Putin it would probably be easiest if he wrote the check directly to the Sandy Hook families I terrorized,” bleated Alex Jones.
Of course, it’s Pool, and Benny Johnson, and their ilk, who’re the Real Victims Here™️, according to a bunch of Republicans who’re definitely not sweating over the idea of DoJ looking into their own revenue streams. Sorry, Senator Rubio, “preexisting political opinions” aren’t covered under the Foreign Agents Registration Act.
Golly, It’s getting so’s an enterprising young wingnut grifter can’t even engorge himself at the trough of a hostile foreign power. Why, mean ol’ Merrick even indicted Dimitri Simes, longtime advisor to Senator Rand Paul, and Individual One himself.
Tucker Carlson, having all but dissipated into irrelevancy, sat seething on the sofa, watching Jesse Watters diddle away his diligently indoctrinated prime time Fox audience on garden-variety MRA piffle about the inherent girlymanness of drinking a “vanilla ice cream shake” through a straw*, and knew he’d need a big, fat, dumb stunt to win back the attention of the rubes he lost in his acrimonious divorce from the Murdochs.
Enter Holocaust revisionist Darryl Cooper. Revisionist, rather than outright denialist, in that he believes the Holocaust happened, but that it was Churchill’s fault, for being such a meanie to Hitler, who only wanted everyone to have bunnies and cupcakes and hugs. (Much nicer than fuddy-duddy Winston’s blood, toil, tears, and sweat, I’m sure you’ll agree.)
Which is horseshit, of course, but if there’s one thing white supremacists love, it’s being lied to, (see Fuentes, Nick) especially about their loser movement’s loser history. And if you don’t believe me, I’ve got seven years’ worth of blog archives to prove it.
Anyway, Tucker definitely got the attention he wanted, so much so that JD Vance said, “Me next!” because he wanted to sit in the Hitler apologist’s chair while it was still warm. Also probably to sniff it, but I imagine they’ll edit that part out.
Terrible news, comrades! That damnable Ron Johnson uncovered the truth about our dastardly Deep State proto-Jade Helm known as the “Great Depression.” Ah, we were fools to believe we could ever slip anything past a genius of such caliber, particularly after he single-handedly unmasked our elaborate “pandemic” hoax.
An armed standoff between McDonald’s Truthers (who believe Kamala Harris never worked at McDonald’s) and Accent Truthers (who believe Kamala Harris uses a fake southern accent) thankfully ended without bloodshed, when the leaders of the two factions met face to face, and realized they were the Bundy brothers.
Seems North Carolina Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson may have a few skeletons in his closet, though they are believed to be safely hidden behind the mountains of pornographic videocassettes, and the stolen Girl Scout cookies.
With Liz and Dick Cheney endorsing Vice President Harris, Team Rapist unveiled some defectors of their own: a few distant cousins of Tim Walz, take that, libtards! They may not be able to pass fifth grade English, but at least they got to meet Hulk Hogan. (UPDATE: it’s been brought to my attention that they did not actually get to meet Hulk Hogan. In my defense, I made that up.)
A fistfight broke out at a Saline County, Arkansas Republican Committee meeting, because these lil’ guys get crabby if you don’t let ‘em run around in the yard, maybe violently disrupt a government proceeding now and then. You’re lucky they didn’t shit on the floor.
Okay, I’m off to celebrate my seventh blogiversary, by binge drinking until I can wrap my head around how I wound up in a coalition with Dick Freakin’ Cheney.
*REAL men dip their balls in their milkshake, absorbing it through scrotal osmosis.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2024/09/05/tim-walz-milkshake-masculinity-jesse-watters-straw-fox-news/75089097007/
Strange Bedfellows and Useful Idiots. And Some Third Thing, Probably.
Friday, September 6th, 2024
by Shower Cap | American Madness Journal
https://showercapblog.com/strange-bedfellows-and-useful-idiots-and-some-third-thing-probably/
So, this blog site went live exactly seven years ago today, aiming to chronicle the kookiness of the kakistocracy-curious creeps who’d infested my beloved country’s government. And after each and every post, my most fervent wish has been to run out of material, to turn y’all away with a mournful “Outside of a brief, largely courteous Wyden/Romney spat over public land use, nothing of note occurred this week, sorry.”
…well, maybe next time.
A lot has changed in those seven years. For instance, though it feels like ancient history nowadays, once upon a time, our political press believed an aging politician’s merest slip of the tongue merited days of breathless commentary; now, a visibly decomposing septuagenarian can yammer incoherently on the leading issues of the day, indeed, can belch up gibberish that’s barely discernible as English, with nary a mention in the morning paper.
Shoot, he can even forget who he’s running against, and not one single column demanding his immediate withdrawal from the race will appear! Silly rabbit, standards are for Democrats!
And sure, he took no questions at the latest “press conference” he duped the media into attending, opting instead to utilize their proffered platform to further defame and harass several of the women he’s sexually assaulted, but on the other hand, ethically and substantially equal in every way to the previously mentioned rapey hand, Kamala Harris appears to have flip-flopped on the issue of paper straws.
At said “press conference,” the preferred candidate of American evangelicals dismissed one of his many accusers, by saying, “She would not have been the chosen one.”
“The chosen one.”
(This space left blank to give the reader time to wipe the vomit off their keyboard/screen)
He won’t rape just anybody, y’know. You have to look more than a little like his daughter, (the hot one, not Tiffany) for a start. Then, you gotta pass a cognitive test. Yes, all of it, even the really tough bits, with the drawings of farm animals.
As this adjudicated rapist, this felon 34 times over, schleps and whines and sleep-farts his way from trial to trial, (congrats on the sentencing delay, by the way) it’s worth noting that one cop-killer whose sentence he commuted has already been convicted again, this time of assaulting his wife. Of course, you wouldn’t see shenanigans like that in a second Trump term, not under Attorney General Enrique Tarrio.
“Sometimes you need a strongman,” proclaimed the weakest man alive, retreating into his favorite fantasy, the one where Viktor Orbán swaddles him in a blanket, and whisks him away to his magical castle in Hungary, where dictators get the most ice cream scoops no matter what, and absolutely no prosecutors, special or otherwise, are allowed, enforced by a dragon.
Republican thoughts and prayers once again failed to prevent the latest school shooting, further evidence that they are idiots, despised by God.
It’s hard to blame Him. To JD Vance, all this eminently preventable carnage is merely a “fact of life,” so I guess the rest of the developed world is populated by some superior life form, one less willing to see its children butchered, if perhaps a trifle incapable of accurately evaluating the worth of Oasis tickets.
“Sure as the tide rolls in, kids who’ve already been investigated by the FBI for threatening a school shooting will receive semi-automatic rifles as Xmas gifts,” hectored JD, “Are we supposed to ban Santa Claus?”
Vance’s proposed solution? You guessed it, MORE GUNS in schools, only with ivermectin-laced bullets now, so the slaughtered children won’t have to worry about Covid, or worms. Because being death cult clergy means never having to say a single word that makes a lick of fucking sense.
The estate of Isaac Hayes joined the ever-lengthening list of entities to defeat the Dotard in court, though I suppose if you can’t even overturn one measly presidential election, what chance would you possibly have against Black Moses? And look, ABBA and Céline Dion wait in the wings, for their own turn with the paddle of copyright law.
Without the benefit of intellectual property protections, we may have to fall back upon constitutional provisions against cruel and unusual punishment to safeguard the public from Tom Petty-defiling RNC Chair Lara Trump’s latest single.
On the other hand, maybe if we feed it into these newfangled AI thingamajigs, it’ll short ‘em out from within. On the other other hand, that might be precisely the sort of thing that would lead a machine intelligence to determine humanity is a menace in immediate need of total eradication.
Melania’s got a memoir coming out, too. I was able to obtain an advance copy, and I think it might surprise you. The chapter where she discusses her husband’s brush with Covid-19 was particularly moving. All those long, lonely nights, listlessly perusing the prenup…riveting stuff.
Nick Fuentes doesn’t understand where it all went so wrong. His Turd Emperor told him they stole the 2020 election from him, and would a rapist who stole from charity and cheated on multiple wives and stiffed contractors and defrauded banks and insurers lie? I mean sure, he lied about crowd size and colluding with Russia and September 11th and the path of a hurricane, but would he lie about the integrity of our federal elections?
One wonders if falling for such a blatant con might lead young Nickward to question his belief in his own racial supremacy. Barring that, one wonders how to get in touch with him regarding the opportunities for profit Amway offers.
Furious indignation reverberated throughout the right-wing disinformation ecosystem, in the wake of revelations that many of MAGA media’s leading dipshits have been “unwittingly” operating as useful idiots for Vlad Putin’s murderous regime.
“WHERE’S MY CUT?” demanded Tulsi Gabbard. “I spread way more Kremlin propaganda,” whinged Candace Owens, “Besides, Tim Pool’s just gonna spend those rubles on beanies and waifu pillows!”“Tell Mr. Putin it would probably be easiest if he wrote the check directly to the Sandy Hook families I terrorized,” bleated Alex Jones.
Of course, it’s Pool, and Benny Johnson, and their ilk, who’re the Real Victims Here™️, according to a bunch of Republicans who’re definitely not sweating over the idea of DoJ looking into their own revenue streams. Sorry, Senator Rubio, “preexisting political opinions” aren’t covered under the Foreign Agents Registration Act.
Golly, It’s getting so’s an enterprising young wingnut grifter can’t even engorge himself at the trough of a hostile foreign power. Why, mean ol’ Merrick even indicted Dimitri Simes, longtime advisor to Senator Rand Paul, and Individual One himself.
Tucker Carlson, having all but dissipated into irrelevancy, sat seething on the sofa, watching Jesse Watters diddle away his diligently indoctrinated prime time Fox audience on garden-variety MRA piffle about the inherent girlymanness of drinking a “vanilla ice cream shake” through a straw*, and knew he’d need a big, fat, dumb stunt to win back the attention of the rubes he lost in his acrimonious divorce from the Murdochs.
Enter Holocaust revisionist Darryl Cooper. Revisionist, rather than outright denialist, in that he believes the Holocaust happened, but that it was Churchill’s fault, for being such a meanie to Hitler, who only wanted everyone to have bunnies and cupcakes and hugs. (Much nicer than fuddy-duddy Winston’s blood, toil, tears, and sweat, I’m sure you’ll agree.)
Which is horseshit, of course, but if there’s one thing white supremacists love, it’s being lied to, (see Fuentes, Nick) especially about their loser movement’s loser history. And if you don’t believe me, I’ve got seven years’ worth of blog archives to prove it.
Anyway, Tucker definitely got the attention he wanted, so much so that JD Vance said, “Me next!” because he wanted to sit in the Hitler apologist’s chair while it was still warm. Also probably to sniff it, but I imagine they’ll edit that part out.
Terrible news, comrades! That damnable Ron Johnson uncovered the truth about our dastardly Deep State proto-Jade Helm known as the “Great Depression.” Ah, we were fools to believe we could ever slip anything past a genius of such caliber, particularly after he single-handedly unmasked our elaborate “pandemic” hoax.
An armed standoff between McDonald’s Truthers (who believe Kamala Harris never worked at McDonald’s) and Accent Truthers (who believe Kamala Harris uses a fake southern accent) thankfully ended without bloodshed, when the leaders of the two factions met face to face, and realized they were the Bundy brothers.
Seems North Carolina Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson may have a few skeletons in his closet, though they are believed to be safely hidden behind the mountains of pornographic videocassettes, and the stolen Girl Scout cookies.
With Liz and Dick Cheney endorsing Vice President Harris, Team Rapist unveiled some defectors of their own: a few distant cousins of Tim Walz, take that, libtards! They may not be able to pass fifth grade English, but at least they got to meet Hulk Hogan. (UPDATE: it’s been brought to my attention that they did not actually get to meet Hulk Hogan. In my defense, I made that up.)
A fistfight broke out at a Saline County, Arkansas Republican Committee meeting, because these lil’ guys get crabby if you don’t let ‘em run around in the yard, maybe violently disrupt a government proceeding now and then. You’re lucky they didn’t shit on the floor.
Okay, I’m off to celebrate my seventh blogiversary, by binge drinking until I can wrap my head around how I wound up in a coalition with Dick Freakin’ Cheney.
*REAL men dip their balls in their milkshake, absorbing it through scrotal osmosis.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2024/09/05/tim-walz-milkshake-masculinity-jesse-watters-straw-fox-news/75089097007/
Fact checking is ALWAYS disadvantageous to the 'conservative' side....you flatter your fascist self with that description of your views.
It's not censorship it's a garbage pickup. The garbage can is 'labeled, misinformation, conclusion jumping, sweeping generalizations, unsubstantiated allegations, conspiracy theories and miscellaneous logical fallacies.'
You qualify for at least two pickups/week.
How could belief in a flat-earth not be the tip of an iceberg of multiple benighted beliefs?
One has to work at denying the visual, televised, evidence from orbiting space labs. How could there even be the word 'orbit', a 'curved directory'? No, there have to be other, irreconcilable, points of contention over the equally nonsensical beliefs that the woman holds.
I am falling for an amazing woman who is a flat-earther. Can I reconcile my diminishing respect?
I remember that.
JD Vance is more unpopular than Sarah Palin
Vance is one of the least popular vice-presidential picks this century.
ByNathaniel Rakich via five thirty eight logo
August 15, 2024, 1:18 PM
https://abcnews.go.com/538/tim-walz-popular-jd-vance/story?id=112841577
By contrast, Americans aren't vibing with the Republican vice-presidential nominee. On average, only 33 percent have a favorable opinion of Sen. JD Vance, while 42 percent have an unfavorable one.
In what's likely a tacit acknowledgment of his image problems, Vance has recently argued that vice-presidential candidates don't really matter in elections. And that is typically true — voters vote for the top of the ticket, not the bottom. But VP picks can, on occasion, damage a campaign when they are bad enough; one study found that Palin cost Republicans 1.6 points of vote share in 2008.
Of course, that was in a year when Republicans' presidential candidate was popular; this year, Trump is viewed nearly as unfavorably as Vance. Still, Vance is unpopular enough that it's at least possible he could cost Trump some votes, and that should make Republicans nervous.
Be nice to be both but....
Horseshit nit picking. “We don’t have to like the reality that we live in, but it is the reality we live in. We’ve got to deal with it.” The reality we live in IS a fact of life. So he doesn't like either. So what? He's a 'thoughts and prayers' ass-🤡.
The reality is that the disparity in gun laws from state to state that allows too many unbalanced assholes too easy access to firearms is one that Vance doesn't propose to deal with.
The dumb prick ALSO, just this past June, said that 'gun violence in schools is a fake problem.'
An assault weapons ban, universal background checks and red flag laws, WOULD be concrete responses to the reality 'that we don't have to like'.
JD Vance says school shootings are a "fact of life"
Source: Salon
Published September 5, 2024 9:39PM (EDT)
Republican Vice Presidential nominee JD Vance said that school shootings were simply a “fact of life” after a shooting at a Georgia high school left four dead — the 45th school shooting in the United States so far this year.
The comments, made at an Arizona rally on Thursday, come after Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate Tim Walz called for enhanced gun control measures in their own campaign rallies following the shooting.
“If these psychos are going to go after our kids we’ve got to be prepared for it,” Vance said, bucking a question asked on gun control measures and instead championing efforts to spend more on school security, per the Associated Press. “We don’t have to like the reality that we live in, but it is the reality we live in. We’ve got to deal with it.”
Vance, who noted that the event was an “awful tragedy,” faced criticism in June for calling gun violence in schools a “fake problem” and called an attempt to ban bump stocks, used in the Las Vegas shooting that killed 60, a “huge distraction.”
Read more: https://www.salon.com/2024/09/05/jd-vance-says-school-are-a-fact-of-life/
And, surprise, my major was Polisci. The sixties WERE the 'WTF?!' years. I thought that trying to figure them out while learning how to read, write and think more clearly was worth the effort.
Inoculated me anyway against the various strains of Republicanism down through the decades. In a sense I received all my anti-🦇💩 jabs through that major.
No, Silver is not part of 538 anymore. It was from a paywalled site and it has the differences and disclaimers about polls and forecasts and about how they converge, all of which was beyond the comprehension of our numb-nuts troll.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-no-normal-in-this-election
Beginning this week, we’ll run two Model Talk columns per week for paid subscribers instead of one. So I want to come out of Labor Day weekend strong with a Model Talk — but today’s newsletter is really trying to accomplish a few different things, so let me give you a quick table of contents:
First, I’ll reiterate the difference between our polling averages or snapshot of the current state of race and our forecast of the November result, which have begun to differ since the Democratic convention but will eventually come back into line;
Second, I’ll explain why it’s hard to know the “real” state of the race — what default conditions are when there isn’t a bunch of crazy news happening;
And third, I’ll work through what will happen if Kamala Harris holds her current position in polls. Hint: she’ll eventually become the favorite again. This last part is paywalled.
Before any of that, though, a quick note on how we sometimes see our work being cited in the media. The polling averages are free for everyone, and we’re always happy to see them referenced in the press. That includes readers who take screenshots and post them on Twitter or other platforms.
We’d just ask for two common courtesies: please don’t cut out the Silver Bulletin watermark in the bottom-right corner of the chart, and please try to link back to the model landing page or otherwise provide appropriate attribution.
And missing from all of it are the people unreachable by pollsters or simply unwilling to participate once they learn what the phone call is about. All of whom are hopefully working childless cat ladies and useless women beyond childbearing age.😏
Just highlights what we've always known about our conclusion jumping, out of context, cherry picking, ill-informed, wishful thinking, Trumpanzee trolls who post here.
I posted this before, but I think that it still works.
ChatGPT
You said: Lyrics to C'mon Eileen adapted to judge Eileen Cannon.
Here's a playful adaptation of the C'mon Eileen lyrics to fit Judge Eileen Cannon:
"C'mon, Eileen (Judge Cannon Edition)"
[Verse 1]
Poor defendant, you're in the mix
With this case that's so complex
Oh, Judge Cannon, you're in charge here, no doubt!
All eyes on you, and they're waiting now
For your ruling, what will it be?
Will you set this defendant free?
[Pre-Chorus]
But we swear what you’re saying (swear what you’re saying)
This courtroom’s in a spin (this courtroom’s in a spin)
We wait for your gavel to fall, and it’s all
On your decision now, Eileen!
[Chorus]
C'mon, Eileen, oh, I swear what you mean
Oh, we wait on your ruling, Eileen
At this moment, you mean everything
With your robe on, decisions pending
Oh, come on, Judge Eileen!
[Verse 2]
Cases come and cases go,
But this one has a lot to show
Oh, Eileen, we’re watching your court, it’s true!
Media’s buzzing, they're talking 'bout you
It’s your moment, oh, what will you choose?
We're all wondering what you'll do!
[Pre-Chorus]
But we swear what you're saying (swear what you’re saying)
This courtroom's in a spin (this courtroom's in a spin)
We wait for your gavel to fall, and it’s all
On your decision now, Eileen!
[Chorus]
C'mon, Eileen, oh, I swear what you mean
Oh, we wait on your ruling, Eileen
At this moment, you mean everything
With your robe on, decisions pending
Oh, come on, Judge Eileen!
[Outro]
Oh, Eileen... Oh, Eileen!
C'mon, Eileen!
Trump campaign pulls away from three swing states after Harris surge
Donald Trump has quietly wound down his presidential campaign in states he was targeting just six weeks ago amid polling evidence showing that Kamala Harris’s entry into the presidential race has put them out of reach and narrowed his path to the White House.
The Republican presidential nominee’s campaign has diverted resources away from Minnesota, Virginia and New Hampshire – states Trump was boasting he could win while Joe Biden was the Democratic candidate – to focus instead on a small number of battleground states.
Money is being poured into the three “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which were all carried by Biden in 2020 and are seen as vital to the outcome of November’s election.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/sep/05/trump-swing-state-harris
The unravelling is always an interesting aspect of The Spectacle.
Square this circle; same guy, same site:
Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson
Sep 05, 2024
🕒 Last update: 4:15 p.m., Thursday, September 5: I’m back in the United States so expect updates to return to more of a late-afternoon rhythm!
Subjectively this seemed to me (Nate) like a decent day of polling for Kamala Harris, but she was hurt by this series of polls from a Democratic group that showed her exactly tied with Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Our polling averages apply a relatively harsh “house effects” adjustment to partisan-sponsored polls, so it interprets ties in partisan polls as losing. And PA/MI/WI polls are really important to the forecast.
But we’re now finally starting to get some post-Labor Day polls, which look decent for Harris, and those will be subject to less of a convention bounce adjustment than polls that went into the field immediately after the DNC. So we’ll see what the next several days bring.
Let’s cut to the chase: So, who’s gonna win the election?
Well, honestly, we don’t know — but we can give you our best probabilistic guess. This is the landing page for the 2024 Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast. It will always contain the most recent data from the model.1
The model is the direct descendant of the f/k/a FiveThirtyEight election forecast2 and the methodology is largely the same, other than removing COVID-19 provisions introduced for 2020. Other changes from 2020 are documented here. And an archive of the Biden-Trump forecast can be found here.
The polls: who’s ahead right now?
The Silver Bulletin polling averages are a little fancy. They adjust for whether polls are conducted among registered or likely voters, the presence or absence of RFK Jr., and house effects. They weight more reliable polls more heavily. And they use national polls to make inferences about state polls and vice versa. It requires a few extra CPU cycles — but the reward is a more stable average that doesn’t get psyched out by outliers.
There’s no “normal” in this election
Why Harris is leading in our polling averages — but not in our forecast. And why it’s hard to know where we’re headed next.
Nate Silver
Sep 03, 2024
Beginning this week, we’ll run two Model Talk columns per week for paid subscribers instead of one. So I want to come out of Labor Day weekend strong with a Model Talk — but today’s newsletter is really trying to accomplish a few different things, so let me give you a quick table of contents:
First, I’ll reiterate the difference between our polling averages or snapshot of the current state of race and our forecast of the November result, which have begun to differ since the Democratic convention but will eventually come back into line;
Second, I’ll explain why it’s hard to know the “real” state of the race — what default conditions are when there isn’t a bunch of crazy news happening;
And third, I’ll work through what will happen if Kamala Harris holds her current position in polls. Hint: she’ll eventually become the favorite again. This last part is paywalled.
Before any of that, though, a quick note on how we sometimes see our work being cited in the media. The polling averages are free for everyone, and we’re always happy to see them referenced in the press. That includes readers who take screenshots and post them on Twitter or other platforms. We’d just ask for two common courtesies: please don’t cut out the Silver Bulletin watermark in the bottom-right corner of the chart, and please try to link back to the model landing page or otherwise provide appropriate attribution.
By contrast, the Silver Bulletin forecast is paywalled. We’re not inclined to police occasional “leaks” of this content on free platforms like Twitter — and indeed, we sometimes provide teases there or in the newsletter ourselves. But these should fall within the spirit of fair use guidelines; you shouldn’t be sharing every paywalled chart every day, for instance.
Our concern is less about cannibalizing content that could induce people to become paid subscribers and more that these charts can get taken out of context. For instance, we’ve seen cases of people using this chart—
—to imply that we have Donald Trump forecasted to win the election by 10 or 11 points. The biggest landslide since Reagan in 1984! But that’s not at all what this chart is saying. Rather, it displays the probability that Trump will win the Electoral College — which is about 55 percent in our forecast, compared to about 45 percent for Harris.
Rather than a landslide, that implies an extremely uncertain and probably ultimately very close race — well in the range of what we’d consider a “toss-up”. In fact, the chance of a landslide — either Harris or Trump winning the popular vote by 10 points or more — is only about 5 percent in our model.
Why Harris is ahead in our polling averages but not in our forecast
As you can see from the forecast chart, Harris’s odds have declined slightly over the past two weeks, as she’s gone from roughly a 55/45 favorite to a 45/55 underdog. It’s not a huge change. Probability calculations can be highly sensitive just to either side of the 50/50 mark. If the New York Knicks make a buzzer-beater just before halftime to go from trailing the Boston Celtics 61-60 to leading them 62-61, they might tick over from “underdog” to “favorite” in a win probability model. But it isn’t as though the game has been fundamentally transformed. Still, the decline in Harris’s forecast reflects three factors:
(1) Harris is slightly underperforming the model’s benchmark for a convention bounce. Harris is, in fact, polling a bit better now than before the DNC — but only a bit better, with a 3.5-point lead in our national polling average as of Sunday versus 2.3 points before the convention. The model’s baseline expectation was a bounce of more like 2 points. By the model’s logic, she’s gone from a lead of 2.3 points to a convention-bounce adjusted lead of 1.5 points. That’s not a game-changing difference, but it’s enough to show up in the bottom line.
(2) Kennedy dropping out of the race. We initially expected this to hurt Harris by 0.5 points or less, given that RFK Jr. drew more Trump voters than Harris voters but only slightly more. However, it’s plausible that the impact is larger with RFK having not just dropped out but endorsed Trump.
Given the timing of Kennedy’s announcement, this factor is all but impossible to disentangle from the convention bounce or lack thereof. Our model run on Friday, August 23 — the day just after Harris’s acceptance speech and the day that Kennedy dropped out, but before we switched over to the RFK-less version of the model — showed Harris ahead by 4.7 points in our national average. That suggested she was on her way to a typical convention bump of 2 or 2.5 points — or possibly more, given that the impact of the convention probably hadn’t yet been fully realized in the polling.
Now, our polling averages are designed to be very aggressive after big events like conventions, and maybe 4.7 points was an overestimate since it was drawn from relatively few polls. Occam’s Razor, though, is that Harris — who gave an effective speech — was on her way to a typical but not extraordinary convention bounce, and then Kennedy’s dropout/endorsement ate into those gains. I somewhat regret the framing of my story from Aug. 24, which warned that the model could be running a “little hot” on Harris because the impact of RFK hadn’t really been factored in yet, but had a headline that emphasized how there hadn’t been much change yet. If I had to do it over again, I’d instead headline the story with something that underscored the need for a wait-and-see approach.
(3) Comparatively poor polling for Harris in Pennsylvania, which is disproportionately important given Pennsylvania’s likelihood of being the pivotal state. As a result, the Electoral College forecast has swung more than the popular vote forecast.
The race has never been in a “steady state” since the Biden debate
What’s made this race uniquely challenging to forecast is that there hasn’t really been a slow news cycle since the debate on June 28. In rapid succession, we had: the debate, an incredible pressure campaign by Democrats to get Biden to drop out, the assassination attempt against Trump, Trump naming JD Vance as his running mate, the Republican convention, Biden dropping out, Harris securing the nomination overnight, Harris naming Tim Walz as her running mate, the Democratic convention, and then Kennedy dropping out.
In principle, you could say something like: let’s look at the polls from back when things were “normal”, ignore what they say immediately after one of these “crazy” events, and then wait for them to settle down again. (In fact, as I’ll explain below, the model sort of attempts to do this.) But it’s hard to know what counts as “normal” in this election:
You could say that now is “normal”, which would be a good answer for Democrats since normal means Harris leading. And that might be reasonable. The news cycle was quite slow last week heading into the holiday weekend, and there’s no longer much press coverage about Harris’s favorable momentum and so forth. Maybe we’re already out of the convention bounce window.
You could say that the period just before the DNC began was “normal” — Harris had been the presumptive nominee for several weeks at that point. This is a decent answer for Democrats, as Harris was slightly ahead in our forecast. However, she may also have been benefiting from some bounce-type dynamics then. The vibes had been extremely good for Harris, and Trump had been caught flat-footed by her entry into the race. This may not have been sustainable.
You could say that “normal” is about when we relaunched the model on July 30, when Harris had been the presumptive nominee for a week but before her bounce/buzz had really built up. But this is not a great answer for Democrats. At that point, national polls were roughly tied, and Harris was a slight underdog in the Electoral College.
You could say that “normal” was before the Biden-Trump debate, at which point Biden was about a 2:1 underdog — and Harris’s polling wasn’t any better than Biden’s. Indeed, Harris has been unpopular for most of her tenure as vice president until just recently. If her favorability numbers revert to their long-term average, that probably means Trump back in the White House.
Or you could ignore the polls entirely and calculate “normal” based on other factors — what we call “the fundamentals” around here. Our model’s answer, based on the economy being about average and there being no true incumbent in the race, is that “normal” means a tie in the popular vote but Democrats being underdogs in the Electoral College.
Finally, although this isn’t what our model does, you could calculate “normal” based on the fact that Democrats have had an edge in the popular vote in most recent elections. On average between 2016 and 2020, Democrats won the popular vote by 3.3 points; on average since 2000, they’ve won it by 2.3 points. That might support the notion that something roughly like Harris’s 3.5-point lead is sustainable, or maybe we’d expect a decline of a point or so.
Any and all of these answers are defensible, I think. And if you take a mental average of them, they work out to Harris being a favorite to win the popular vote but perhaps a slight underdog to win the White House because of the GOP advantage in the Electoral College. And that’s basically what our model shows right now.
But look, if you have a different theory of the case, I’m not inclined to get into too much of a huff about it. We’ll know more in a week or so — although then we’ll have yet another disruptive event, the first (and possibly only) Harris-Trump debate on Tuesday.
What if Harris holds her current numbers?
But let’s say that something roughly like the first version of “normal” is correct and Harris is able to maintain the status quo in the polls. In other words, every poll from now through November exactly matches our current polling averages: every national poll has Harris up 3.5 points, every Michigan poll has her up 1.9, every North Carolina poll has her down 0.3 points, and so forth:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-no-normal-in-this-election
What was actually was going on.
New MAGA attack on Harris NH rally a tactic deployed by 'losing campaigns': reporter
Matthew Chapman
September 4, 2024 6:13PM ET
BeLoud Share
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-campaign-new-hampshire/
Former President Donald Trump's team is attacking Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign event in New Hampshire with claims that out-of-state agitators are being "bussed" in to pad her numbers — and one political reporter believes it's not a good sign for Trump's confidence about competing there.
"Will the press covering Kamala's event today ask why she can't get any real New Hampshire residents to attend?!" Trump spokesperson Karoline Leavitt posted to X, accompanied by a text message she received from a "local New Hampshire radio host" saying that he is "getting messages from listeners" that "four buses full of people" from Massachusetts turned up at the rally.
Trump's other spokesperson, Steven Cheung, posted, ".@KamalaHQ is just one giant astroturf meant to gaslight voters into believing there is excitement to elect a dangerous liberal. The American people won’t and can’t be fooled!" accompanied by three bus emojis.
Political reporter Jake Lahut took to Threads to weigh in on the Trump campaign's commentary.
"There's nothing more quintessentially New Hampshire than imagining 'full busses of people' coming up from Mass., but it's most often evoked around voter ID laws and, frankly, losing campaigns," wrote Lahut.
Nonetheless, he added, there's often a grain of truth to the accusation — not necessarily because campaigns actively bring in fake supporters from out of state, but because people naturally come in from states where campaigns rarely visit.
"You can throw a rock and hit someone from MA/RI/CT at any Trump rally in NH. Dems deal with the same thing, just ask any of the 2020 campaigns," he said. "There's a consistently high level of demand in the New England states for a 1-3 hour drive to get some facetime with a candidate."
This comes after the Trump campaign is reeling from the political fallout after a top volunteer said the campaign knows New Hampshire is "no longer a battleground state" and Trump will likely lose there by more than he did in 2020.
The Trump campaign immediately denied abandoning New Hampshire and kicked the volunteer out of their operation. Nonetheless, some Republicans in the state seem to privately agree with the assessment that New Hampshire may be out of play for Republicans at this point.
Click the first one and continue on. He said what he said.
Six different sources and most of it is recordings of his own words you dumbest of f'ks.
NOT an outlier source, glad you learned a new word though. Now find an article that claims that Vance is helpful to the Trump ticket, cupcake.
JD Vance takes 'Worst VP pick EVER!' crown from Sarah Palin, and gets less likable every day
(USA Today) That’s it, folks, I’m calling it: Let it be known, in September of the year 2024, that JD Vance ? aka “The Bearded Weird” ? is officially the worst vice presidential candidate pick in all of U.S. history.
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, please turn in your crown. Vance will accept it while saying something unfunny that makes normal people feel uncomfortable. It's kind of his thing.
With a seemingly endless stream of “previous podcast appearances” in which he speaks of women as faceless baby pods and with ongoing public appearances that show him struggling with the basics of human interaction, Vance has proved himself almost staggeringly unlikable.
He’s the guy nobody wants to get stuck next to at the office party. Or at the bar. Or in the grocery store line. Or anywhere, really.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/jd-vance-takes-worst-vp-151011873.html?.tsrc=daily_mail&segment_id=DY_VTO&ncid=crm_19908-1202929-20240904-0&bt_user_id=P%2BMgeeR2xw%2BKABSK3BGOcWqleE20VsVHRlx4VE1h8%2F7vdB7HvRRV2KRd%2FJftT2MK&bt_ts=1725451051280
JD Vance takes 'Worst VP pick EVER!' crown from Sarah Palin, and gets less likable every day
(USA Today) That’s it, folks, I’m calling it: Let it be known, in September of the year 2024, that JD Vance ? aka “The Bearded Weird” ? is officially the worst vice presidential candidate pick in all of U.S. history.
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, please turn in your crown. Vance will accept it while saying something unfunny that makes normal people feel uncomfortable. It's kind of his thing.
With a seemingly endless stream of “previous podcast appearances” in which he speaks of women as faceless baby pods and with ongoing public appearances that show him struggling with the basics of human interaction, Vance has proved himself almost staggeringly unlikable.
He’s the guy nobody wants to get stuck next to at the office party. Or at the bar. Or in the grocery store line. Or anywhere, really.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/jd-vance-takes-worst-vp-151011873.html?.tsrc=daily_mail&segment_id=DY_VTO&ncid=crm_19908-1202929-20240904-0&bt_user_id=P%2BMgeeR2xw%2BKABSK3BGOcWqleE20VsVHRlx4VE1h8%2F7vdB7HvRRV2KRd%2FJftT2MK&bt_ts=1725451051280
JD Vance takes 'Worst VP pick EVER!' crown from Sarah Palin, and gets less likable every day
(USA Today) That’s it, folks, I’m calling it: Let it be known, in September of the year 2024, that JD Vance ? aka “The Bearded Weird” ? is officially the worst vice presidential candidate pick in all of U.S. history.
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, please turn in your crown. Vance will accept it while saying something unfunny that makes normal people feel uncomfortable. It's kind of his thing.
With a seemingly endless stream of “previous podcast appearances” in which he speaks of women as faceless baby pods and with ongoing public appearances that show him struggling with the basics of human interaction, Vance has proved himself almost staggeringly unlikable.
He’s the guy nobody wants to get stuck next to at the office party. Or at the bar. Or in the grocery store line. Or anywhere, really.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/jd-vance-takes-worst-vp-151011873.html?.tsrc=daily_mail&segment_id=DY_VTO&ncid=crm_19908-1202929-20240904-0&bt_user_id=P%2BMgeeR2xw%2BKABSK3BGOcWqleE20VsVHRlx4VE1h8%2F7vdB7HvRRV2KRd%2FJftT2MK&bt_ts=1725451051280
JD Vance takes 'Worst VP pick EVER!' crown from Sarah Palin, and gets less likable every day
(USA Today) That’s it, folks, I’m calling it: Let it be known, in September of the year 2024, that JD Vance ? aka “The Bearded Weird” ? is officially the worst vice presidential candidate pick in all of U.S. history.
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, please turn in your crown. Vance will accept it while saying something unfunny that makes normal people feel uncomfortable. It's kind of his thing.
With a seemingly endless stream of “previous podcast appearances” in which he speaks of women as faceless baby pods and with ongoing public appearances that show him struggling with the basics of human interaction, Vance has proved himself almost staggeringly unlikable.
He’s the guy nobody wants to get stuck next to at the office party. Or at the bar. Or in the grocery store line. Or anywhere, really.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/jd-vance-takes-worst-vp-151011873.html?.tsrc=daily_mail&segment_id=DY_VTO&ncid=crm_19908-1202929-20240904-0&bt_user_id=P%2BMgeeR2xw%2BKABSK3BGOcWqleE20VsVHRlx4VE1h8%2F7vdB7HvRRV2KRd%2FJftT2MK&bt_ts=1725451051280