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It's back on!
Sprint Nextel in New WiMax Bid
CEO Hesse Revives Talks With Start-Up Clearwire On New Wireless Network
By AMOL SHARMA and MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG
January 30, 2008
In the last few weeks, newly installed Sprint Nextel Corp. Chief Executive Dan Hesse has moved quickly to impress investors with layoffs and an upper-management shake-up at the wireless carrier. Now there are signs he is teeing up a bold restructuring of the company's $5 billion plans to build a new high-speed wireless network using WiMax technology.
Sprint has revived serious discussions with WiMax start-up Clearwire Corp. to form a joint venture that would bring in outside funding from the likes of Google Inc., Intel Corp. and Best Buy Co., people familiar with the matter say. The plan could dramatically lower the price tag of Sprint's WiMax project and allow Mr. Hesse to focus on fixing the company's core cellphone business -- answering two concerns Sprint investors have had.
More here:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120162984956525859.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Told ya. ;)
And news on the bidding front:
700 MHz Auction: As open access nears, bidders back off
Jan 29, 2008 5:36 PM, By Kevin Fitchard
C block $800M shy of triggering open-access provisions of 700 MHz auction; public-safety spectrum still neglected
Google will have to wait at least another day before it can start performing celebratory cartwheels. The price of the nationwide C-block license in the 700 MHz auction ticked upward today, but it got nowhere near the $4.6 billion reserve price necessary to trigger the open-access provisions of the highly valuable spectrum property -- a stipulation Google lobbied long and hard for. Instead it ended the day with a $3.78 billion provisional winning bid.
...Though $8.66 billion has been raised in 12 rounds by the auction so far, it still has a long way to run before it loses steam -- more than 1000 separate bids were submitted in Tuesday’s closing round. The D block still has plenty of time to attract more bidders, particularly as the price of the C block and other regional licenses escalate. (For complete auction results see the FCC’s Auction 73 page)
Such escalation, though, appears to be exactly what the C-block participants are bent on preventing. The C-block bidders slowed down their pace Tuesday, taking turns bidding on the license every other round. That not only prevented the license from crossing the $4.6 billion reserve threshold, it also served to knock down the minimum bids required to take the lead in consecutive rounds. According to the FCC’s rules, the minimum bid falls each round a license fails to attract a new bidder. The strategy has definitely slowed down the momentum of C-block bidding, but even at the rate of one bid every other round, the license will clear the reserve ceiling in the next two days.
More:
http://telephonyonline.com/wireless/news/c-block-auction-0129/
How clueless do the telcos think Google is? This is sooooo going to meet the minimum bid for open access and I'm still betting that Google will prevail as the winning bidder. Combine that spectrum with a joint venture with Sprint, Clearwire and Intel, and hells bells, we've got us a primo new mobile broadband provider.
I can't believe any tech company that watched what the telcos did to start-up dsl companies in the 90's would let these walled-garden guards get away with it again and stifle the world of innovation that awaits.
Android Demo in Action!
I can't wait to get my hands on a phone like this:
Inside The GPhone: What To Expect From Google's Android Alliance
This is a really cool article and it's got pics, too. A very nice analysis of what each company brings to the table. The Gphone will be a killer. :)
What exactly will the GPhone -- that vaporous handset that's the subject of furious speculation -- actually look like? In the wake of Google (NSDQ: GOOG)'s release of its Android mobile-phone software development platform, there's been lots of chatter, but little hard information. This article is intended to change that.
http://www.informationweek.com/news/showArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=5BXGPDRECNU40QSNDLRCKH0CJUNN2JVN?articleID=202805257&pgno=1&queryText=
Is the bad news really the good news?
Looks like conjecturing on WiMax and Google has gone full-steam-ahead in the media.
Now on the surface, Sprint backing out of their deal with Clearwire for WiMax doesn't sound so good...however:
Could Clearwire be partnering with Google?
Posted by Tricia Duryee at 09:17 AM
Is there something else in the works now that Sprint Nextel and Clearwire have officially said they are not going through with their partnership announced in July?
Despite the break-up, Clearwire's CEO Ben Wolff hinted in the third-quarter conference call this morning that something else may still be in the works.
He said that because of the spectrum auction coming up in January, there has been immense interest in the wireless broadband business, and a Sprint partnership would have precluded working with anyone else.
And who that might be?
Google?
It's no secret that Google has been really interested in the business, pledging billions to participate in the auction and lobbying the FCC hard to tailor the spectrum to its desires.
Wolff said that he can't talk about any transactions publicly until they are complete, but that in general "I would say that there are a number of factors that caused an increased focus on the space that we are in," he said. "We are looking and exploring all of our strategic options and there's a quite a bit of focus on this space right now."
http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/techtracks/archives/2007/11/could_clearwire_be_partnering_with_google.html
And:
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200711091422DOWJONESDJONLINE000762_FORTUNE5.htm
Remember where you heard about Google and WiMax first. ;)
Forbes gets a clue
At least Forbes is starting to "get" it. I can't believe the number of articles I've seen that talked about how Google couldn't afford to bid on the spectrum compared to Verizon. Have any of those idiots ever compared balance sheets? Google could out bid Verizon all by itself with pure cash if it wanted. Verizon doesn't even have $4.6 billion in cash and Google has three times that amount.
Radio Google
Google's phone plan begins a war with Verizon, Microsoft and the wishes of the feds.
Google's November surprise will rattle the wireless industry for months. On Nov. 5 the Mountain View, Calif. search giant announced that it had cobbled together an alliance of 34 companies seeking to turn the mobile phone into a freely open computing device. Aiming to undermine the dominant operators like Verizon (nyse: VZ - news - people ) and AT&T who, let's face it, aren't exactly rushing headlong into the mobile future, Google plans to give away all the software developers and manufacturers need to create slick new smart phones. Google would sit in the middle, selling ads.
The first phones from the alliance will be out next year. Google Chief Executive Eric Schmidt ensured he had some motivated partners by enlisting first-rate but second-ranked companies--Motorola (nyse: MOT - news - people ) but not Nokia (nyse: NOK - news - people ), T-Mobile but not Verizon. "A new model of computing is here, and mobile is the next large platform," says Schmidt. "What could screw this up? The incumbents. They might not let you access the Internet freely."
Schmidt will make sure they don't stand in his way. Google will likely spend a hefty chunk of its $13 billion in cash on getting access to airwaves. In late January the Federal Communications Commission will auction off a chunk of the old UHF broadcast spectrum. A slice of air this thin isn't very high in capacity--millions of city dwellers sucking up YouTube videos could swamp it--but it's well suited to offer national coverage for wireless broadband.
Google told the FCC in July that it would bid at least $4.6 billion in the auction under four conditions: The winner had to open its airwaves to any device, application and Internet service provider, and be required to sell access wholesale to resellers. Verizon lobbied against Google's proposal, and the FCC struck a compromise in August that nixed the wholesale reselling requirement. Since then some in the industry figured Google had lost interest in owning the airwaves.
Not so. Schmidt now says Google will definitely participate in the auction. The company has indicated it would still intend to open the spectrum to anyone willing to pay for it, flouting the feds' compromise. The company wants to use its savvy in running auctions of ad keywords on the Web to run real-time auctions of available spectrum to interested service providers.
But the spectrum may wind up costing a lot more than $4.6 billion. Based on what AT&T paid in October to Aloha Partners for similar spectrum, the bid could be at least $6 billion. Google suspects Verizon would pay dearly to keep spectrum away from others. The likeliest scenario is that Google goes in with a partner such as T-Mobile or Sprint, both of which are already in the Google phone alliance, or it joins with Frontline Wireless, an upstart whose powerful backers, billionaire venture capitalists John Doerr and Ram Shriram, are also seeking to open the nation's airwaves.
Google has been pursuing a grand mobile strategy for more than a year but stepped up its urgency after the release of Apple's iPhone. "It was the first phone with a really good mobile Web browser, and we saw five times the average usage of things like Google Maps and YouTube" compared with online habits, says Vic Gundotra, Google's head of mobile developer relations.
Google hired Gundotra in June, a prize poach of a man who'd spent 15 years running both developer relations and Microsoft's Internet computing strategy. Schmidt has put him in charge of mobile engineering and products. "We'll deliver things you couldn't have imagined, like search better than what you get on the desktop," Gundotra says. "We're spending hundreds of millions, and we're going to give things away."
Google has tons of issues to resolve before it can claim victory over the status quo. Networks are already jammed, and pricing models for increased Internet use have yet to be worked out, says Cole Brodman, chief development officer for T-Mobile USA. Mobile ads must not junk up the screen. "It's early days," Brodman says. Others are already at the party. "Our [Internet] platform is without peer. And it's real," says William Plummer, head of multimedia for Nokia North America. "A newcomer validating the vision we've had, that's great." Yes, but we're talking about a newcomer with $226 billion market capitalization.
http://members.forbes.com/forbes/2007/1126/048.html
I was saying that there's something to chart reading. Ya got a problem with that? I was also saying that market psychology plays just as important a role. In yet another post I was also saying that you were full of crap about GOOG's PE. It is NOT the highest one out there. I saw no response from you to my post SHOWING you other much higher PE's.
GOOG went down with just about every other tech stock today including the mighty APPL, RIMM and BIDU. Looked like locking in profits in the midst of a general market panic to me rather than anything inherent to GOOG.
Just remember, he who laughs last, laughs loudest. I'm still up over 50% from my purchase this year and am in GOOG long. ;)
Watch out Garmin and TomTom, Google's a comin' for ya!
Pay attention, you stubborn, proud men. ;)
For lost drivers, Google maps at the pump
Online search leader will provide driving directions at thousands of U.S. gasoline pumps beginning in early December.
November 7 2007: 8:44 AM EST
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Lost drivers soon will be able to Google for help at the pump.
As part of a partnership to be announced Wednesday, the online search leader will dispense driving directions at thousands of gasoline pumps across the United States beginning early next month.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/07/technology/bc.google.gaspumps.ap/?postversion=2007110708
I really have no idea what the hell you're talking about.
GOOG: Mkt Cap: 228.78B P/E: 57.34 F P/E: 32.66
Sales - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 161.68
EPS - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 205.43
Industry Growth Rate for Comparison: 50.22
S&P Growth Rate for Comparison: 14.74
FSLR: Mkt Cap: 12.09B P/E: 200.50
VMW: Mkt Cap: 39.25B P/E: 206.99
YHOO: Mkt Cap: 37.01B P/E: 54.05
BIDU: Mkt Cap: 13.31B P/E: 191.67
To sleep, perchance to Dream
Music to Dream by:
I don't get how you get there from here. What of the stocks I just cited? It's nowhere near the highest. Nowhere. Not even close.
Well, there's chart reading and then there's market psychology. While I think there is "something" to chart reading (during big pullbacks like today, I will look at a chart to see where the stock might form a new base if pounded down and it seems to follow what you guys come up with, interestingly enough) they're sometimes proven wrong when there exists something about a company that so sparks investors' imaginations that they are compelled to buy.
I believe there will be many stories to come that continue to ignite those imaginations about Google and its entry into mobile communications, and offer Apple's performance after announcing they'd be introducing a cell phone as an example. While not exactly the same, the nature of the beast is similar enough.
The FCC is on Google's side
Well, my, my, how times have changed. Looks like the big, mean, old telcos are losing their influence. hehe Makes you wonder if Verizon dropped their lawsuit against them because they saw they had little leg to stand on, or it was necessary to merely get in on discussions of the alliance whether or not they joined.
FCC chairman supports Google's Open Handset Alliance
http://www.news.com/8301-10784_3-9812061-7.html?tag=nefd.blgs
Q&A With Google Android Developer
This is really interesting. Especially when you get to this part:
IDGNS: Other mobile Linux initiatives exist on the market that are trying to accomplish a similar thing as Android. Won't Android compete with them and complicate those efforts?
Miner: When we looked at the other [mobile] Linux activities out there, oftentimes they're initiatives that are based on Linux but their resulting platforms aren't completely open. Or they're completely open and they're Linux, but they're missing most of the things that [Android has]. They probably don't have video codecs, Midi sequencer, speech recognition. So they're not a complete phone stack. The goal with Android was to build into it everything you needed to release a phone: an entire stack to build a competitive smartphone or high-end feature phone.
IDGNS: The description you have given of Android's browser sounds exciting. Will it in fact replicate the PC browser experience on mobile devices?
Miner: Yes. It's based on the [open source] Webkit browser technology. That's the same browser that Apple ships with the iPhone and that's used in the Nokia Series 60 phones. So it's a full desktop browser, based on the same Webkit core Apple uses for their Safari browser, but highly optimized for our mobile environment. ... It'll be a great mobile Web experience.
http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,139331-c,nonwindowsoss/article.html
Gee, didn't I happen to include an article in a previous post that the guy who invented Android happened to work for Apple's General Magic back in the day? ;)
Mr. Rubin started out as a manufacturing engineer at Apple before taking on research-and-development tasks including development of the Quadra, a desktop computer, as well as an early effort to develop a software modem. In 1990, Apple spun off a unit of the company that was exploring hand-held computing and communications devices into a separate entity called General Magic.
Mr. Rubin joined the new company two years later; he says he thrived in General Magic’s total-immersion engineering culture. He and several other engineers built loft beds above their cubicles so they could essentially live at the office and work around the clock developing Magic Cap, a groundbreaking operating system and interface for hand-helds and smart cellphones.
When General Magic went public in 1995, its stock almost doubled on its first day of trading. But Magic Cap was a great idea that was about a decade ahead of its time. Just a handful of manufacturers and telecommunications companies adopted it — and only briefly — and General Magic’s engineering team gradually dissolved to join other start-ups.
Refresher for those who didn't read the whole thing. ;)
http://www.theledger.com/article/20071104/ZNYT01/711040553/1001/BUSINESS
What a moron. LOL So you think their Property Plant and Equipment costs are out of whack or is that stupidspeak for PE?
If the latter, sorry, dude, but GOOG's PE just matched Yahoo's today. Prior to that it's a been a laggard. I'd love to hear your comparisons on their income growth.
Or a comparison to BIDU's PE, or FSLR's PE or VMW's.
In all cases, you lose. :D
Google will beat them into submission. :D I honestly think the cherry on top is going to be WiMax. Many of the companies mentioned in this alliance are also on board with supporting WiMax which is like the holy grail of bringing cable internet like speeds to cellphones. Look at Intel's new mobile chip specifically designed for WiMax.
Sprint's BOD had a retreat this weekend to discuss their plans for WiMax. WiMax could be their ultimate differentiator in the cellphone market and coupled with Google's deep pockets at the spectrum bid or a similar alliance of companies at the spectrum bid and they've got the power to pull the rug out from underneath AT&T and Verizon who have very little of the WiMax spectrum.
Thus far, Google has seemed to employ the same strategy with both the OpenSocial Network and the Open Handset Alliance. The new gPC that came out is all about open source bringing down the cost of all computing even on the desktop. And the OpenSocial Network is already being designed to run on Android.
The computer in the cloud is essentially offering up their own servers for storage and applications for free use. Everything is open and free which encourages development and innovation but also keeps eyeballs on Google's pages.
I get the feeling that Google's mobile initiative news will snowball growing bigger and bigger. Developers will be getting their hands on the code next week to start work on it. February marks the spectrum bid and even an actual Gphone may still be in the works for mid 2008. If you notice, Schmidt did not dismiss the idea just declined to comment with what he called a "preannouncement."
To wit:
In a conference call, Google Chief Executive Eric Schmidt sidestepped questions about whether Google would ever announce a Google phone. "We're not announcing a Google Phone today," he said. "If there were to be a Google phone, Android would be an excellent platform for it to use. Imagine not just one Google Phone or Gphone, but a thousand Google Phones."
But prognosticators are still reading between the lines. Google executives "had every opportunity to say 'we are not introducing a Google Phone' and they did not say that," said Derek Brown, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald.
http://www.news.com/Google-sends-Android-to-conquer-mobile-world/2100-1038_3-6217113.html?tag=nefd.lede
What's really fascinating is to look at different articles on the announcement as many cover different topics and alliance member comments, as well analyst comments and competition comments, such as this one:
``We recognize that customers are wanting to do more with their phones beyond just voice and text,'' John Garcia, Sprint's senior vice president for product development, said in an interview. ``Customers are telling us they want their phone to be more like the real Internet.''
The accord would boost Google's advertising revenue from mobile phones, which outsold personal computers by more than 4- to-1 last year. For phone companies Sprint and T-Mobile, the accord may bolster sales of online services and give them an edge over larger rival AT&T Inc., the exclusive U.S. carrier for Apple Inc.'s iPhone, and Verizon Wireless.
...Verizon Wireless hasn't ruled out joining the alliance, spokesman Jeffrey Nelson said today in an e-mail."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arDjfKY0Y2nA&refer=home
Or this one:
“Just like the iPhone energized the industry, this is a different way to energize the industry,” said Sanjay Jha, chief operating officer of Qualcomm, which makes chips used in wireless phones. Mr. Jha said the Google technology would bring better Internet capabilities to moderately priced phones. He also said that innovation could accelerate, as developers would be able to enhance the software as they saw fit.
...“Today the Internet experience on hand-held devices is not optimized,” said Peter Chou, chief executive of HTC, one of the largest makers of smartphones. “The whole idea is to optimize the Internet experience.”
And, of course, the best source for all news on the Google phone is Google's News section. LOL
In fact, I created a homepage on Google about six months ago. They've got all these widgets you can add as well as just about any news source you can think of. Their Finance section rocks if you create a portfolio there as it brings you every little bit of news affecting your stock from everywhere. It's way better than every single platform I've used as far as the news-gathering goes. So often there is news there that you don't find on eTrade or CBSMarketwatch, etc. Plus I'm able to view my Google calendar there (which you can share with an individual or a group) along with my inboxes to both Gmail and Hotmail. Everything I really need on one page, but if you need more you can create new tabbed pages.
Gee, do I sound like I'm goofy for Google? ;)
I, Robot: The Man Behind the Google Phone
Very cool piece on the guy behind the Google phone aka Android. He's
the Director of Mobile Platforms for Google, inventor of a smartphone
in 2002 called the Sidekick. Interestingly enough, he used to work
at Apple and Microsoft AND his "Android" was of interest to purchase
by Craig McGaw. It's wise to keep abreast of the interconnectivity.
You see, Craig McGraw just happens to be the founder of....wait for
it....Clearwire! LOL
http://www.theledger.com/article/20071104/ZNYT01/711040553/1001/BUSINESS
More on Gphone or Android as its known by code name.
Google to unveil 'Android' phone software
Posted by Tom Krazit
Google is ready to unveil a suite of software for mobile phones based on open-source technology, backed by some of the largest wireless industry companies in the world.
The company is expected to hold a press conference on Monday to unveil the project, which is expected to incorporate software from the Linux world into a mobile platform code-named Android that's designed to run on phones, according to sources familiar with Google's plans. A software development kit for what's being called "a complete mobile-phone software stack" is believed to be in the works and will be released relatively soon thereafter, the sources said. It's not exactly clear what kind of software will come as part of that stack, but it's said to include everything you need to run a phone.
Japanese wireless carriers KDDI and NTT DoCoMo are said to be heavily involved in what will be called the Open Handset Alliance, according to other sources. The rest of the more than 30 other companies involved reads like a who's-who list of the mobile-computing industry, including Qualcomm, Broadcom, HTC, Intel, Samsung, Motorola, Sprint, and Texas Instruments.
More here:
http://www.news.com/8301-13579_3-9810358-37.html
BTW, I damn well expect a decent "Holy Crap!" out of some of the sleepy-headed investors here come Monday. :)
The telcos were responsible, in large part, for the dot.com blow up in the stock market during the late 90's. They stifled burgeoning innovation in their efforts to retain and keep the gate to the walled-garden shut.
As far as I'm concerned this newly emerging era of tech/communications history should be called "Revenge of the Nerds." :D
It all started with hearing about Google asking for new measures from the FCC regarding the upcoming spectrum auction. I was curious as to what their motive was considering Google doesn't do things willy nilly.
I didn't know what the difference between WiMax and WiFi were, so I read up on that. One thing lead to another and that's when it seemed pretty clear where they were heading.
About the only thing I know about the telecom industry was how they stiffled innovation back in the 90's by dragging their feet on delivering leaseable service to all the upstart dsl, etc. companies.
I see this as a innovation winning out over the closed-walls of the telcos who have kept American consumers strapped to whatever they what to deliver the way THEY want to deliver it, i.e. piece by piece at a cost per piece on only their approved equipment.
You know, the U.S. lags behinds most of the world in openess in this area.
Did you read about the gPC, yet? Uh huh, the gPC goes on sale at Walmart for $199 all built on Linux. Apparently, the method to Google's madness is to unhinge computing from the Microsoft closed-source monopoly. To get a better idea read up on computing in a cloud and you'll get where they're going with their apps, widgets, etc.
Remember "Do no evil." :D
Gphone plans coming Monday!
Remember you heard it here from me, first:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=22505049
And later here:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=23198229
And now this along with more of my speculation:
I've been reading some little known industry specific news and started making some connections in my own head, but I just came across THIS a moment ago:
Report: Google to reveal mobile plans Monday
According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, on Monday Google will reveal its rumored alliance with various handset makers and at least on carrier in the U.S. for an "open" mobile OS. According to the report, Google will be working with Sprint and T-Mobile USA. Our own polling (at the time of going to press) suggests that Fierce readers agree with that prediction. Samsung, LG and Sony Ericsson are likely candidates for the handset partnership, but the WSJ's sources say HTC is the most likely. While the announcement is likely to cause a big stir in the media, the market won't see any commercially launched devices until the middle of next year, the report claims.
http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/report-google-reveal-mobile-plans...
There's a link to the article on the WSJ from there.
Now, here's what I think the WSJ hasn't put together yet. I can't believe I found this article in an obscure site through a link from the Law of Mobility website (you know the one I found that had that incredible article "Why the Sprint/Clearwire/Google Deal Matters").
See if you can figure out what I'm thinking:
Sprint May Spin-off WiMax Network
Reston, VA (AHN) - Sprint Nextel, battered by declining profits and subscribers, is considering spinning off its Xohm WiMax network to a public company, reports said Friday.
Sprint is also mulling whether Clearwire, which will help build the wireless network expected to serve 100 million people by the end of 2008, could partner with the new company.
The possible actions are seen as among subjects during a weekend Sprint board meeting, said the Wall Street Journal.
Thursday, Sprint reported third-quarter net profit fell 77 percent and the loss of 60,000 subscribers.
However, finding a replacement for former CEO Gary Forsee will likely be the focus of any talks. Reports said Dan Hesse, CEO of phone equipment firm Embarq, is a leading candidate. Sprint spun-off Embarq in 2006.
Sprint is also near finalizing an agreement to work with Google on a cell phone that could be announced as early as Monday.
http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7009033425
Okay, here's my thinking. If you recall Sprint and Clearwire did a WiMax swap. The two companies together have cornered the market on WiMax outside of the upcoming spectrum auction and agreed to share. A WiMax spinoff makes so much sense using something like VMWare as an example.
VMware was developed by EMC. The spinoff had initial investors
(before it went public) from the likes of some very big wigs in tech like Intel and Cisco. The WiMax spin off would be the same thing with investors like Intel, Google, maybe Apple, Motorola, whoever we don't know yet. Then it is this consortium spin off that bids on the upcoming spectrum. The WiMax spinoff retains a relationship to Sprint trading services and the built out network for voice through Sprint's network and also makes money for Sprint and Clearwire as they retain a huge interest (ownership) of the spinoff.
So. What do you all think?
More than a Gphone, additions to my previously posted speculation.
Okay, pieces of the Sprint/Clearwire/Google situation that I'd put together in my own mind if nowhere else were actually to be found in a blog I saw until last week. Preface your reading with who wrote this blog: "Russ McGuire is a leading strategist and visionary in the telecom industry. As director of corporate strategy for Sprint, he is responsible for developing the strategic vision and strategic framework for the $30B+ telecommunications giant."
There are lots of excellent links within his blog, too, like Dvorak from Marketwatch:
Why the Sprint/Google/Clearwire deals matter
http://law-of-mobility.com/2007/07/29/why-the-sprintgoogleclearwire-deals-matter/
Let's start with Sprint and Clearwire. Sprint owns the bulk of the 2.5 Ghz spectrum which it intends to use for WiMax. It's good spectrum and they've got a lock on it. That's what they got when they bought out Nextel. Now Clearwire owned also owned a chunk of this spectrum. Together they own 80% of it, effectively shutting out the other telcos. Back in 06 they agreed to a swap. Clearwire had a lot of suburban and rural coverage and Sprint has big city coverage. Instead of competing, they've decided to work together to build out a shared WiMax network creating a space that the other telcos can't touch.
Now, the new spectrum that's available in the 700Mhz spectrum is also highly valuable. And Google set the bar high as it could see the writing on the wall of what would happen if any of the other telcos got ahold of it. They could effectively monopolize the spectrum delivering more of the walled approach to internet access akin to AOL in the 90's. I believe this new cooperation with Sprint (thus far only announced as a portal for their new WiMax service) is in actuality going to be another spectrum swap. Sprint and Clearwire get access to Google's spectrum and vice versa. Additionally, Google gets access to the rest of Sprint's network which is important because, near as I can remember and digest, the WiMax spectrum can do voice, but since voice is the most used, capacity-wise this much spectrum (of the 700Mhz) it's not so good.
Google plans to bid and win on the prized C section of the 700 Mhz spectrum. Getting the FCC to set the minimum bid at $4.6 billion and making sure they allow all types of devices to access it, allows them to get their foot in the door one way or another or both. That $4.6 billion bid is important if you look at Google's cash. They've got triple in cash what any of the telcos have putting them in the catbird seat.
Now, going back to voice-capacity outside of WiMax, 3G is the next hottest thing. That's what all the telcos are gearing up for. You get bandwidth similar to WiMax, but not the same type of penetration (like I said before through buildings and stuff). So, ideally, you want a phone or device that is both voice capable with the latest (3G) and WiMax. Wide coverage, excellent signals, one spectrum for voice, one for WiMax.
To get an idea of how other big the smart people think WiMax will be, you need look only further than the mother of all chip makers, Intel. And what have they and all major computer makers announced?
Intel Promises Wi-Fi-WiMax Chipset In 2008
Laptop makers Lenovo, Acer, Asus, Panasonic, and Toshiba are all signed up for Intel's upcoming 25-watt Montevina mobile platform.
By Michael Singer
InformationWeek
September 18, 2007 03:47 PM
Intel (NSDQ: INTC) on Tuesday bolstered its worldwide wireless endeavors by announcing an upcoming chipset supporting both Wi-Fi and WiMax networking technologies.
Chief executive Paul Otellini said Intel was moving very fast to keep its promise to deliver WiMax radio modules in mid-2008 that would support 25-watt Intel Penryn mobile processors. The chipset codenamed Montevina would also support HD DVD and Blu-ray high definition video formats in a package half the size of current products.
WiMax, or World Interoperability for Microwave Access, is a wireless broadband standard that's designed to extend Wi-Fi networks across greater distances, such as a campus or sections of metropolitan areas. The IEEE 802.16 standard is theoretically capable of transmitting data up to 70 Mbps as far as 37 miles.
Otellini said Intel's goal is to make WiMax as commonplace around the world as Wi-Fi is now in coffee shops and airports.
"We are on the cusp of a new global network," Otellini said during the company's annual developer conference in San Francisco. He estimated nearly 150 million people will be covered by WiMax next year. That number is expected to expand to 1.3 billion in 2012.
http://www.informationweek.com/news/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=201807265
Please note the 150 million people covered in the next year. Intel's previous press releases said 100 million, which is exactly the same amount mentioned by Sprint and Clearwire. Perhaps a combined Google/Sprint/Clearwire has raised the total. :D
Now, on to the rumors of the gPhone. I thought it would be all software based leaving the hardware guts to like Nokia or Samsung, however, a few articles have made me rethink that. The first had to do with Google's oddest patents. Nobody knew they were Google patents because they weren't registered under Google's name.
Start reading at number 3, realizing that CDMA is one of the big technologies used in mobile communication.
3. Application of a pseudo-randomly shuffled hadamard function in a wireless CDMA system
One of the dominant wireless digital technologies around these days is Code Division Multiple Access, or CDMA. This patent tells us that this is a “unique, novel solution which improves the capacity of CDMA by a factor of four.” They also describe some of the other advantages of CDMA...
http://www.seobythesea.com/?p=804
Sure sounds like cellphone hardware to me. I have no idea what a hadamard function is. Perhaps the switching involved is switching between spectrum bands, i.e. Google's spectrum and Sprint/Clearwire? Anyone with expertise in these matters feel free to let us know.
The second article had to do with developers, although I suppose this could go either way with software or hardware:
"Mention the name Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) in cell phone software circles these days and you're likely to get a lot of blank stares and awkward silence. It's not that these Silicon Valley startups have nothing to say about the world's largest Web search engine. The problem is, they can't. Many mobile-software developers in the Bay Area and beyond are hard at work cobbling together services and tools they hope will be packaged with a wireless operating system under wraps at Googleplex -- and they've been sworn to secrecy."
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/59336.html
Signed confidentiality agreements, no doubt. :D
And last, but not least, of the many articles I've read and didn't mention comes this article just out today, wherein the speculation on their mobile direction runs hot an heavy and includes my speculation:
Motivation:
"Why is Google doing it? Because they are frustrated," said Frank Dzubeck, president of consulting firm Communication Network Architects. "One of the things impeding their growth is a lack of mobile broadband capacity. The technology is available, but they don't see fast-enough buildout by carriers to meet the demand. It all boils down to broadband access," he said.
Another motivation for Google's interest could be to spur wireless network operators to open access to their networks from multiple devices, said Michael Disabato, vice president and service director for network and telecom strategies at Burton Group.
"Google's proving a point. They want to open the networks and allow any device to attach to them. They want to break the locked handset model and show that the business model can work," he said.
Possible structure that I imagine:
Google could also choose to partner with an existing wireless network operator, exploit existing cell sites and towers, and build an overlay network on that infrastructure. That would lower the cost of the network buildout, according to Halen.
"Whichever vendor Google chooses, that company has to be good at partnering, said Godfrey Chua, IDC research manager for wireless and mobile infrastructure.
"That vendor will play a huge role in how to build the wireless network. It is extremely complex and fraught with difficulties," Chua said. But most of the major vendors, including Nortel, Alcatel-Lucent and Ericsson, are increasing their emphasis on professional services and running networks for their service provider customers.
"That's a model you can expect coming out of Google trying to build a network. Google gives you the check and you do the planning and building and then run it, while Google focuses on marketing and building the applications for the network," he said."
http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1895,2189197,00.asp
Read the whole article. It's got every which way of speculation. :D
Google, Sprint and WiMax all together in one phone and network? I think so and yet I've read only one article that fully links the two together the way I think it will work.
Certainly by now you've all heard of the wireless auction taking place in January '08 that Google mentioned an interest in if the FCC changed the rules. Well, the FCC did change some of them and not only do I know Google will bid, but I'm guessing that Sprint and Google will jointly bid. They're both way too interested in WiMax and have already agreed on a Google portal for the new Sprint phones. This particular band of the spectrum is precisely the type desired for WiMax.
Here are some background articles:
Google 'Probably' Will Bid In 700 MHz Wireless Auction, Schmidt Says
Even though the FCC didn't adopt all of the auction rules that Google sought, the search engine company "probably" will submit a bid for the spectrum, Schmidt says.
By W. David Gardner
InformationWeek
August 22, 2007 11:42 AM
Google is likely to participate in the upcoming auction for 700 MHz spectrum, according to comments made Tuesday by company chairman Eric Schmidt.
The firm and the FCC had been haggling over terms for the auction, and the commission last month adopted only two of four requirements set by Schmidt for Google to bid in the January auction.
Asked by a T-Mobile executive at a conference in Aspen, Colo., whether Google planned to participate in the auction, Schmidt said, "probably," according to published reports. He was a featured speaker at a meeting of regulators and telecom executives sponsored by the Progress and Freedom Foundation think tank.
Google has been inching toward becoming an active player in consumer wireless communications as its earlier hopes of piggybacking on nationwide Wi-Fi networks have sputtered trying to get off the ground.
http://www.informationweek.com/news/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=201801698&subSection=All+Stories
Sprint Commits $4B to WiMAX
Company faces the wrath of Wall Street as it becomes the third
broadband pipe to the home.
August 8, 2006
Sprint Nextel, the third-largest mobile service provider in the United States, said Tuesday it will build a high-speed data network based on WiMAX, an emerging broadband wireless technology.
The announcement will undoubtedly shake up the WiMAX product supply market, which has been in a kind of holding pattern as the rapid emergence of Wi-Fi and cellular data services have dulled the general excitement that had built up around WiMAX.
It is a significant commitment by one of the world's largest and most respected wireless operators. While it bolsters the standing of WiMAX technology, it places Sprint at odds with the current mood on Wall Street, which frowns on excessive capital expenditure among mobile service providers.
Link doesn't work anymore, but I figured I give readers somewhere to look:
http://www.redherring.com/Article.aspx?a=17884&hed=Sprint+Commits+%24...
This is the one putting it all together:
Sprint Picks Google over Cable?
Analyst says search king is behind carrier's decision to walk away from cable spectrum deal.
August 3, 2007
By Cassimir Medford
Sprint Nextel confirmed Friday that it's no longer part of SpectrumCo, a consortium that owns licenses to large swaths of radio spectrum and that involves Sprint and cable operators Comcast, Time Warner Cable, and Cox Communications.
The defection signals a blossoming of Sprint's relationship with Google, in which the two companies may join forces in a bid to acquire spectrum in an upcoming auction, one analyst said. And the changing partnerships and positioning demonstrate the increasing value of mobility as consumers demand services such as phone, Internet, and even TV on the go. The finite quantities of available wireless spectrum are starting to attract new players such as cable and search firms, setting the stage for unusual relationships.
...In the meantime Sprint has been involved in a hot and heavy
partnership with Google as the search king mulls a bid in an upcoming FCC auction for valuable 700MHz spectrum. One analyst, who requested anonymity because of his or her close involvement with at least one of the partners, sees Sprint's exit from SpectrumCo as a clear signal that something is up between Sprint and Google. Sprint could be looking to trade its interest in the consortium's wireless properties, which are in the less attractive 1.7GHz to 2.1GHz bands, for the more attractive 700MHz band, the analyst said.
Sprint, which owns licenses to extensive swaths of 2.5GHz spectrum,said last week that Google will be its portal of choice for its WiMAX network, scheduled for commercial launch next year (see Google, Sprint in WiMax Pact). And Sprint, which is using the 2.5GHz spectrum to build the WiMAX network, has said on a number of occasions it will not take part in the 700MHz auction scheduled for next year. But the analyst called that statement a "head fake."
More if you can find it any longer:
http://www.redherring.com/Article.aspx?a=23039&hed=Sprint+Picks+Googl...
What's most interesting is that in every article I've seen written, outside of that one, everyone discusses the competition with AT&T and Verizon, but nobody ever mentions Sprint one way or another.
It won't be a Gphone per se, not their hardware, but their software, at least, that's what I think.
WiMax is the sweet spot and I think these two moving aggressively into this zone is the smartest move going.
OT - dpb? Holy crap, not Google, too? LOL Man, this is starting to feel like old timers day for me.
I haven't checked in on ihub for a couple of months now and this is getting freaky. :D
OT - Zep?!?! This isn't the old Zep from Yahoo message boards of the late 90's, is it? Infoseek?
And cooler yet for the stock, they've already signed up BIG customers:
Microsoft Launches New Product Category: Surface Computing Comes to Life in Restaurants, Hotels, Retail Locations and Casino Resorts
First commercially available surface computer from Microsoft breaks down barriers and provides effortless interaction with information using touch, natural gestures and physical objects.
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET May 30, 2007
CARLSBAD, Calif., May 30, 2007 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Picture a surface that can recognize physical objects from a paintbrush to a cell phone and allows hands-on, direct control of content such as photos, music and maps. Today at the Wall Street Journal's D: All Things Digital conference, Microsoft Corp. CEO Steve Ballmer will unveil Microsoft Surface(TM), the first in a new category of surface computing products from Microsoft that breaks down traditional barriers between people and technology. Surface turns an ordinary tabletop into a vibrant, dynamic surface that provides effortless interaction with all forms of digital content through natural gestures, touch and physical objects. Beginning at the end of this year, consumers will be able to interact with Surface in hotels, retail establishments, restaurants and public entertainment venues.
....-- Harrah's Entertainment. Guests at Harrah's Entertainment's Las Vegas
properties, including Caesars Palace and the Rio All-Suite Hotel &
Casino, can explore the wide variety of dining, entertainment, night
life and gaming experiences available at its network of area casinos.
Using the interactive virtual concierge in Microsoft Surface, guests
can reserve tickets to an Elton John concert, review the menu at chic
eatery Bradley Odgen, take a tour of the world-famous PURE nightclub,
book a luxurious spa treatment or redeem Total Rewards loyalty program
credits for a broad range of merchandise. The virtual concierge can
directly connect users to amenities available at any of Harrah's seven
Las Vegas casinos, allowing guests to "visit" multiple venues and plan
their itineraries without ever getting up from their table. "When
visitors to Las Vegas choose to stay at one of our casinos, they can
enjoy the amenities at all of them," said Tim Stanley, Harrah's chief
information officer and senior vice president of innovation, gaming and
IT. "Microsoft Surface is a great way to help our guests get the most
out of their trips to Las Vegas by putting all the offerings and
experiences we make available at their fingertips."
-- Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide. Starwood Hotels & Resorts
Worldwide Inc. (HOT : starwood hotels&resorts wrld comNews , chart , profile , moreLast: 70.06+1.92+2.82%8:11pm 05/30/2007Delayed quote dataAdd to portfolioAnalyst Create alertInsiderDiscussFinancials Sponsored by:HOT70.06,
+1.92,
+2.8%
)
will initially launch Surface at Sheraton
Hotels & Resorts, Starwood's largest and most global brand. Surface
will help bring interaction, connectivity and play to Sheraton hotels'
new lobby experience, currently being rolled out in key cities
worldwide. To provide guests with greater service, unique experiences
and entertainment, Sheraton embraced Surface as a key component of its
lobby transformation. Surface will enable guests to browse and listen
to music, create their own playlists, send photos home, download books,
and even order food and drinks -- all with the drop of a credit card or
their Starwood Preferred Guest loyalty card. "We are creating new and
engaging ways for our guests to connect with their passions while away
from home. Microsoft Surface puts us at the forefront of technology and
allows guests to interact with each other and our hotel in a
revolutionary way," said Hoyt H. Harper II, senior vice president for
Sheraton.
-- T-Mobile USA. Customers in T-Mobile retail stores might place different
cell phones on Surface's interactive surface where product features,
prices and phone plans would appear so they could be easily compared.
"We are continuously working to build the greatest retail experience we
can for our customers," said Bonita Inza, vice president of Retail at
T-Mobile USA. "They tell us they want more information about our
products and services, but in a way that is easily accessible, at their
own pace and with the amount of detail that they prefer. Surface is one
example of how we're turning our stores into a playground where
customers can comfortably explore exciting new products in their own
personal way."
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/microsoft-launches-new-product-category/story.aspx?guid=%7BE95...
FWIW, ace, everyone I've shown a YouTube video of this to has been absolutely astounded. And I'm talking about non-techies and non-investors who are agog.
You think maybe the media can stop their love affair with Apple for a moment and show a little love to MSFT?
This freakin' surpasses Apple's technology albeit in an entirely different way. This isn't a mass market handheld device, but as far as a future multiple-use and an undoubtedly well-patented platform, I think it's the new icon (play on words intended). ;)
It's about time we got a little something-something from the heavy-duty geeks in Seattle.
The one simple thing the average investor fails to realize is that, generally speaking, the stock market won't make you rich. It simply delivers a better rate of return than a savings account or CD or such if handled properly. And nobody, but nobody can pick all winners all the time.
Now I have some history on this board with Google so everyone knows my entry exactly. In three months I'm up almost 10% in Google. That's jim dandy by me, but I'm expecting more.
I thought Cramer's reasoning about why Google would head up further made sense and thought I'd share considering Google had languished for what seemed ages. Good TV exposure never hurts. ;)
I don't know about that. He's done good on FSLR, AAPL and FWLT to name merely a few of his recent touts.
His word isn't gold and even he says so. He hands out great suggestions and backs them up with his reasons. You then do your own research and decide. You don't just buy because he thinks it's a buy. And you pick your own entry point. You shouldn't simply run out and buy the stock the day after he says he thinks it's a buy.
Cramer was positively effusive about Google tonight. Here's the recap, but it doesn't nearly cover the enthusiam he had. In fact, he said that he wouldn't put this as his published target price but he believes GOOG will hit $1000/share.
A Tale of Two Internet Stocks
Google (GOOG - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) is on its way up because Amazon (AMZN - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) is going higher, Cramer told viewers.
He believes that Google, on the conservative side, could see $600. Amazon going higher serves as a catalyst for Google because of one word, Cramer said: "contrast." Google has become the "cheapest" of all the Internet stocks Cramer follows, and by contrast, Amazon's ascent makes Google look cheap.
"We use metrics to value," and on those metrics, Amazon is way more expensive now than Google, even though Google has better growth and better prospects, Cramer explained. "The momentum may be back for Google -- and you have to anticipate it because of what happened to Amazon."
Amazon has a sales growth of 33% and an operating margin of 4.8%, he said. In comparison, Google has 63% sales growth and a 33% operating margin. "Google is the better, higher-growth company," Cramer said. "It's half as cheap as Amazon."
If Google were to get the same valuation as Amazon, Google would be trading at $704, he said. At the same time, Cramer advised against selling Amazon, because there are "way too many shorts that need to cover" the stock. "That said, the time is finally the right time to buy Google," Cramer said.
http://www.thestreet.com/_mktwrm/funds/madmoneywrap/10358880_2.html
In actuality, on the show he said the buying has started. Google's off to the races now. :)
"When I just bought more at 2.85 I thought myself a fool but these boardies including Canadaboy told me to gut it out. My problem Meme is that I am so overweight in NXG that I will soon be having a kick ass retirement or it will be another time I was a pig. That Meme is when a pig is a pig to me.
I was not complaining about the profits I have made in the past but it was the stagnation when the market in general has been outstanding."
Precisely! You've got two levels here. The first being that you're being swayed by emotions and not by realistic expectations based on current performance.
I've seen this before, I've been this before which is to say too emotionally involved with my stock and its company to part ways when the economic time is the best (not that THIS is best, but most certainly other times have presented themselves with regularity).
Secondly, I believe you first need to disengage yourself of the notion that one stock will provide your ultimate retirement. That's being piggish and a bit naive and full of unrealistic expectations. It blinds you to all the other money to be made in other investments. During times like these, your money is dead. It's not making more money for you. Certainly you've been invested in this stock long enough to realize that regardless of even the company's fundamentals it is subject to a complex mix of dollar swings, oil prices, China, Africa, South America, politics and global unease in the Mideast.
When you see those factors changing you can be guaranteed almost which way the stock will go, the only questions being how high or low and how long and which factor will be considered the most important at the moment.
Unfortunately (and I can imagine I'll make no friends here by saying this), I think a lot of people here are too emotionally involved with this stock. You all have to unhook and get pragmatic lest you end up like the Waveoids waiting 10 years for their ship to come in. Have a look at a chart of WAVX (god, I hope none of them see this. LOL. I like them despite this.) to get an idea.
And betting the whole wad on two things of which nobody here knows how they will turn out, i.e. approval of the new site and/or purchasing another company seems mighty risky.
Don't complain about stagnation, do something about. Sell some shares on an up day and start looking at other investments. My advice would be the same for any of the longs here. Sorry to pick on you, but I suppose you encapsulated the dichotomy I saw here among many between smart investing and emotional investing especially when so many of you are sitting on profits.
Now, all may feel absolutely free to kick my ass if you like. And tell me I don't know what the hell I'm talking about. I'm cool with that. :D I sold out my last position awhile back, but I'm still interested in exposure to gold miners. However, I don't see any immediate catalysts at the moment for major upswings. Unless, NXG gets approval in July, I probably won't ever be reinvesting, but am looking at GSS.
"5. According to Barron's magazine (2 weeks ago) -
Northgate is takeover target due to its huge cash
and coming KN approval"
Could you direct me to that article? I did a search of Barron's and could find no mention of Northgate.
"Yep, even though I bought in under $1.00 I still see what Canadaboy is saying. Indeed, if I had taken my profits at say 3.75 or 4 and reinvested them in a few others I have I would be well over 250K ahead. BUt then again that is the would have should have mentality which I do not abide by.
...The only thing I know from experience is that pigs get slaughtered."
Please take no offense, because I honestly mean this as light-heartedly as possible. Aren't those two statements incongruous?
I mean, even if you sold today you have tripled your initial investment. Isn't holding longer being a pig? Wasn't hoping for more than 3.75 or 4.00 being a pig?
I sold on the 25th at 64.48 and bought back in yesterday at 55.88. God, I love this stock! Not to mention the market. Just keep your back to the wall. This market is like living in a herd of antelope in the middle of Africa's lion country. One whiff of the wrong smell and the herd will run.
It would be great to see another run-up before the earnings report tomorrow.
I'd truly love to see FSLR surprise on the upside even if they're outlaying money to expand and build their Malaysia plant. That's my biggest concern.
It's been quite a ride for the last two weeks, I must say. Dang, nothing like a 20+% gain in 14 days. When I started seeing the volume come on I thought "here we go baby!" And the volume has remained higher than in the previous weeks.
Unless the market goes into another major meltdown I can only imagine any pullback in price due to a modestly down market would put us back at 54 at the worst.
FWIW, Jim Cramer highlighted FSLR again tonight. He's doing a week called "Green Day," in lieu of the Supreme Court decision about the EPA and the states. However, he explicitly told his viewers not to buy at these prices, but be patient and wait for a 10% drop. I think he's dead-on with that.
I'm looking for an exit point myself as I think that when earnings season starts to wind down, investors will begin to notice all the very uncomfortable things going on with the economy, especially with gas prices on the rise, the cost of oil going up, the dollar going down and inflation not yet tamed.
Then I'll just buy back in for another ride up. :)
I should have added that the Barrons article on solar was the fourth most viewed article on the site today. That's some great exposure. :)
Hey FinancialAd! Why, don't I know you from GOOG? It must be a great minds kinda thing. :)
What was also strange about today as I watched a few bouts of play by play in streaming quotes, much of the bidding was for huge blocks like 43,000 or 26,000 against small asks like 2,600 or 4,000. Now I haven't quite figured out what to make of streaming quotes yet as they don't always act like I'd think they'd act. I always thought one would see a larger volume in bids over asks pushing the price up, not down, i.e. supply and demand. Obviously, I must be terribly naive because it appeared the opposite was happening.
I was able to note one time when such a large block was on the bid at 3.32 with a much smaller ask at 3.33. Nothing moved liked for ages, probably a matter of 5-10 mins. Eventually it looked like some of the ask caved and little bits of it (like 100 or 500 shares) would go off at the bid price instead of the ask. These long face-offs or whatever they were produced wider red bands of volume than normal when looking at a daily chart that includes volume.
Think it could be the big guys trying to shake out the little guys?
Do you know anything about streaming quotes and how to read them?
Another fine recommendation for FSLR. From Barrons Online Exclusive:
Solar Power Trying to Rise in the East
ThinkEquity Partners LLC
OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST WEEK, we visited several public and private solar companies in China.
As is common in the industry, many conversations focused on silicon prices, the average selling prices (ASPs) of modules and margins.
Most module players in China will tell you that the silicon shortage is waning and that availability is increasing. Several producers have reported greater than 10% declines in feedstock [the material used to build solar cells] prices -- both at the wafer and silicon level -- in the past six months.
Additionally many Chinese producers have optimistic outlooks on the silicon supply moving forward with the bottleneck relaxing significantly by late 2007 versus previously anticipated 2008.
We are cautious toward this outlook as many of these views are coming from producers that have relied solely on spot-market purchases (and prices) if any supply was available at all. So, $250 per kilogram for silicon may seem like a good price to a wafer manufacturer that was paying $300 per kilogram last year -- but that is a still a far cry from the best long-term contract prices that are well below $100 per kilogram. In other words, we think any softening of the situation is perceived more favorably in China than it actually is for the market more broadly.
[skipping ahead of more involved stuff on silicon prices and to the beauty of FSLR and while hoping to avoid copyright issues]
...We expect to gain further visibility into the silicon situation at the Photon International Expo this week in Germany. Tuesday's program is specifically dedicated to the silicon market and we wouldn't be surprised to hear news about new capacity plans. Positive news on silicon expansion could lift shares of the entire industry.
We would focus on our key names, First Solar (rated at Buy) and SunPower (rated at Buy), as they should rise with any rising tide. And, these names should be somewhat protected if any negative silicon news appears since First Solar is insulated from silicon constraints and SunPower has solid supplier relationships.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB117554930208557342.html?mod=BOLFeed
Okay, this is not good at all. We're having a great day in gold and NXG is going down in price on up up in volume. It's already traded as many shares as it normally does on an average day.
This sucks. Something has derailed and I can't believe it's merely the broker's new calls on earnings nor the approval situation. The approval situation wasn't affecting it this badly if at all before this month, why would it now?
From Banc of American Securities at Barrons
Solar-Power Plays With Some Flare
WE EXPECT SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV) cell and module manufacturers to enjoy substantial growth. We forecast industry PV production to increase to approximately 8 gigawatts by 2010 from 2.5 gigawatts in 2006 (a 34% compounded annual growth rate). Several factors should drive PV demand, including government incentives, falling costs of production, new financing options, maturing retail channel, and rising fossil-fuel prices.
In spite of strong growth, we would be selective on the stocks of PV manufacturers due to diminishing barriers to entry. We are selective on PV stocks as the result of indications that the barriers to entry for PV manufacturers have diminished, including greater polysilicon supply, the emergence of thin film and 3) the emergence of Chinese production.
In our view, reduced barriers to entry and higher PV supply will contribute to lower prices – and, consequently, lower margins and return on investment capital – for PV cell and module manufacturers.
Our survey of PV installers suggests that supplier prices have already weakened. Twenty-two percent of the 180 solar PV installers we surveyed from Feb. 26 to March 16 indicated that wholesale pricing has declined, compared to only 10% that stated pricing had increased. Moreover, the survey indicated that module availability has increased. Twenty-nine percent of survey respondents claimed that availability was higher than the prior month, while only 5% maintained that availability was lower.
We favor PV manufacturers with opportunities for outsized growth and profitability optimization. Within the expected pricing environment, we favor PV manufacturers that exhibit growth, scale, product differentiation, low cost production, low capital costs and vertical integration.
Our top picks are SunPower and First Solar. We favor SunPower, given its efforts to vertically integrate, product differentiation and low installed costs and low capital costs. We also recommend First Solar due to its low production costs, strong growth potential and focus on cadmium telluride [material].
For those with access, the rest of the article is here:
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB117494887896249603-search.html?KEYWORDS=fslr&COLLECTION=barr...
First Solar won't be subject to the market swing prices in silicon.
Here's more on the subject of cadmium telluride:
http://www.nrel.gov/pv/cdte/
I think the right time was Friday when I got in a 51.88. :D
Granted in a market melt down, somewhere in the 40's is damn nifty, but I've been watching this stock for a month now and given current circumstances it looked like 51 and change was going to be about it bottom-wise.
You may have a long wait.