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SPX Fly Win
Eye Hob don't like my shifting eye pees
so can't post here. The fly was great.
For last trade week selling put credit spreads
worked great but on the third one lost 45 bucks
and bailed after fed speak knocked markets down
expading vol. AMZN put cretit spreads that is.
See ya in the funny papers
SPX Fly Adjustment
BOT 1
13 APR 17 2390 Call this morning
to reduce delta by 80% as SPX moved
north at a decent clip. Sold the call when
SPX rolled back from 2370
Lost 30 bucks including mish but that's
the cost of insurance.
The FLY is ITM now.
but theta is up today as it should be.
This trade has a rule of exiting tomorrow
no matter what.
SPX Fly
Bot
2330/2360/2390 @ 12.00
Expires on 7 Apr 17
Bot 1 Call
SPX 2415 Exp 13 Apr 17
The one call is to flatten the deltas
This is theta positive delta neutral
In on Weds and out at +10 to 15% or Friday
whichever comes first.
Loss rule / exit if down 15%
Hi Goodies!
Been a while.
Hope you're all doing great.
Did Something I Haven't Done in Years
Picked up a penny stock Tuesday @ .545.
Printing .628s here.
Weeeeeeee
Last post here. IP banned and not going to
be online naked for an ihub.
Cheers
Go Time Ticker
Is CF, hourly chart posted.
Held up through the down days.
CMG Big Move Arrived
Ya just had to hold with confidence.
Mar 645 calls @ 90.20 here.
Holding Steady or Moving Up On Weakness
The USD/JPY made a retracement overnight pushing indexes to open down a bit. If I'm waiting on a set up to evolve as in NFLX from a prior post, I like to see the pick hold some strength when there is overall weakness. For now NFLX hasn't been hit with any technical damage. Price action has a 15 min & 60 min squeeze here. The 12 period momentum isn't providing a hint on direction yet but if the 15 min fires short we can get a flush to the downside. Worst case
I'd like to see 330.97 hold up but if algos are hunting for stop loss triggers it would dive under that area. Otherwise I'm still waiting on the DMI cross to arrive on the daily. If the TICK gets some +1000 hits an early entry might be triggered.
Cheers
CMG Breakout On Daily Squeeze
Technically it busted out Friday and as of now we're in day two
of the breakout on the daily. However, CMG is in the weekly squeeze also and it hasn't yet broken out in that period. So far we've seen a fifty dollar move from the bottom around 633.00 to this morning.
The Mar 645 Calls are at 63.20 from 45.60 entry. Closed the puts for green on the rebound off the low after this trade began.
Creating my own voodoo lines on a daily & 30 min period chart keeps me in the trade as we push up into higher lines and get rejected, supported by lower lines, and bouncing back north through the prior R into the next R areas.
Cheers
Happy New Years
Goodies & Cheers
Weeeeeeeeee
TSLA Fib Timing / H&S Update
TSLA had a fib timing cluster on 12-15, 16, & 17.
Price also moved more than halfway past a 127.2 extension coming near the 161.8 extension. If price continues north we have R between 232.45 & 235.32, then another cluster at 237.89 thru 238.66. Don't know if a reversal has begun or if this was just a counter trend cycle.
Cheers
NFLX Fib Timing & Price Crossing
A fib price cluster should have an extension, a retracement, and symmetry in a fairly tight range. Here in NFLX we only have two out of three. We do have a fib timing cluster which is always composed of fib extensions. For timing we have a 227.2%, 161.8% & 261.8% clustered on 12-15 & 12-16 with two of three falling on 12-16.
The low on 12-16 was 316.00 which didn't breach the suggested support of 311.06 thru 314.14. The timing & price cross could signal a reversal. The pattern post earnings into 12-16 could also be the not so obvious algos hunting for stop loss orders. Because it looks exactly like what is shown, price pushed past the prior swing low and past the low on 10-16. Nothing is certain. If we get the 8/34EMA crossover to the upside with a DMI crossover combined,
I might do 60 day calls, selling weekly puts spreads along the way.
Cheers
CMG Breaks Downtrend Line
Still technically consolodating as the daily and weekly squeeze haven't yet fired, CMG has broken a downtrend line on the daily and weekly period. After a retracement into the 61.8 off the daily, price moved north slamming into the 127.2% extension off a 30 min period move. Along the way it bumped into overhead resistance at a cluster of two fib levels and a symmetry fireline between 656.50 & 657.83. We hit this cluster twice and retraced with a second luster of two fib levels and a symmetry fireline providing support. Yesterday, price action sliced through that overhead cluster, pulled back to a smaller extension/symmetry fireline which provided support, moved back up to close on top of the downtrend line.
Cheers
CMG Support Cluster
641.41 - 643.67
Comes from four prior symmetry projections,one 127.2 extension
and a 50% fib retracement...
Last week took the Mar 645 call and 640 put, long biased with
a 20 point delta difference. The bracket trade is down a bit here
but if it continues downward the deltas will swap and it could
go green again. There is the 161.8% extension down at 638.41 in
the cluster. I'd like to see that hold but if it doesn't I won't
be sweating it.
Cheers
CMG Coiled For A Breakeout
CMG has been consolodating for a while now.
It's in a weekly, daily, hourly, and fifteen minute squeeze.
The probability is 75% for an upside break. Then there is the
the other side, 25% as there is no certainty in markets. There is
a way to configure a trade going out three to four founths
to limit risk. Buy delta 70's calls and then buy puts as near
to 20 deltas lower than your calls as you can get. The further
expirations reduce theta decay. Once CMG breaks to the up or downside, pick up some near term calls or puts to capitalize
on the directional move.
Cheers
TSLA Head & Shoulders
It's there, on the daily and weekly.
However, is it there on it's own or did it get some help.
With Algos and HF's creating patterns to suck in traders
now, we don't know. It's broken up through a downtrend line
on the hourly. Previous swing high is 217.73.
It's made a fib extension to the downside and a symmetry
support line at 204.12 wasn't violated.
Cheers
Refined And Tested
Across four trades now taking 15% to 20% in five days or less.
No homeruns but that isn't the plan. For a bullish bias trade,
buying the delta 50 calls 60 to 90 days out, and buying the put
as near to delta 20 less than the call side. So delta 50 calls,
delta 30 puts. I lost a little on trade five, but the delta spread
was too wide. So I refined it to the above.
Price action can move either direction and produces at worse
case a break even trade. If you want to ride it longer for more loot
you can sell credit spreads one standard deviation out on weeklies
entering on Tuesday to capture premium decay to offset theta decay
if price is stagnant. If it's a bullish bias trade sell put credit spreads and vise versa for a bearish bias trade. This is risk management eliminating the gambling aspect. I'm still using TTM squeeze & waves combined with Fibqueen analytics to determine tickers to hit. ToS added symmetry data to the Trendline drawing
tool. They still lack the ability to plot the put/call ratio but rumor has it they're working on adding this.
Cheers
Trade Structure
IBM Oct monthly.
71 days out. Low theta.
I give this five days to work out.
If price is still near where it was on entry I bail
down about 60 bucks from theta decay. But if I get
a 10 dollar move either way in the next five days,
it's green. This is a bullish biased set up. Buying
a put at half the delta roughly, as the call. A larger
move, more than 10 bucks either way is desirable.
That is unless my figuring is wrong. The arrows are
pointing to the theo price which is typically my fill.
Cheers
Feed The Ducks
Left the TSLA trade at a 161.8 extension on the 15 min.
Calls took in 750
Puts lost 250
Five benjamins to the good side.
Cheers
TSLA Trade Monday Entry
Sep Mnly 240 Call @ 12.70 / Delta 49 or so
Sep Mnly 215 Put X 2 @ 4.48 / Delta 21 or so
Dec Mnly 295 Call @ 7.20 / Delta 20 or so
TSLA just broke out of a weekly squeeze this week,
and it's two dots into a daily squeeze break also.
This is a bullish trade with the puts as a hedge.
When price rises my puts go down in delta at the same time
the call deltas rise, and vise versa.
If broad markets weren't so volatile, selling the weekly
put credit spread five dollars wide down at 230 or so
would have been first choice to capture and profit from
theta decay. The calls combined with PCS is an 80% probability
set up. It wins with anything except a quick sharp decline.
Cheers
Fib Timing Projections
It's in ToS drawing tools. Basically, it suggests a reversal of whatever the direction price is moving headed into the fib date.
See how direction revesed on each fib timing mark. This
was created just after the apex in price at the bottom.
Had to wait for the timing to roll into view. Click it to
see all of the chart. Cheers
How TO ID HFT Activity & Trade With It
I set the price point lines on this chart on 5-7.
The day after attending an HFT webinar intended to help
retail traders ID HFT activity and teach how to trade with
their activity directionally or via selling credit spreads.
AAPL, one of many examples. Every candle stick pattern, every
published entry and exit strategy including reco's published
from popular trading site and or printed material is programmed
into the algos. HFT outfits have the edge always. If you can ID
the moves they will create, trade with them. You're not going
to beat them at this game, or the average retail trader won't.
Cheers
At The Open Today
The ES blew through the second extension, came within .30 cents
or so during yesterdays cash session but no touch.
Since my levels were quick fib pulls, not extensive work,
and we blew though the extensions, I sit on my hands here.
PPLT from Tues night scans is OK.
CORN from Tues night scans is OK.
PAL from Tues night scans is getting crushed. Heard yest
it had accelerated on worries in regard to Russia's control
over PAL. On the 30 min, it's at a 50% retrace area from the
last few days.
These plays were longer term calls, AUG for example on CORN.
Cheers
S&P Extension
1875.82 to 1877.64
One is a 30 min 127% extension & one is a daily 127% extension.
If we can bump into the first I'll take the short side.
Other tickers I'm interested in long:
PPLY
PAL
CORN
Haven't ran fibs on these or symmetry yet, or fib timing
projections.
Cheers
UVXY Scalp
Friday, June 35 calls.
In @ 28.70 / out @ 33.00
1 Hr 10 min scalp.
There was no volume and no open interest.
In & out at the mid point.
Fibs Applied To Time & Price
When the two come together, it can preclude a powerful move.
Nothing works all the time. But I've seen this strategy of
price retracement aligned with timing extensions based on
fibs work over and over again. In TOS, the only tool we have
for obtaining a bar count is "cycle brackets" in the drawing
tools. We do have fib timing tools in the drawings section also.
I'm not affiliated with the video creator. I can't eliminate
the little sales gig at the end of the vid. She does have a book
out, it would do you good to give it a read, maybe discover some
tactics you've not been exposed to elsewhere.
Cheers
AAPL Time and Price
http://www.fibonacciqueen.com/public/AAPL-time-and-price-low-2272014.cfm?inf_contact_key=1d294088c945b9ddb11b4edf56af585d7b9e2f7050b4d1cadd9a079751f8d6a9
USO Calls
March 36.50's came back to break even yest.
April 33.50's closed yest for .90 cent gain.
2.40 to the 3.30 exit.
A long wait on this, target is 103.34 in CL
traded via USO, 2nd fib target is 106.59
but not holding out for either to arrive.
Prior post run was 20 trades, 16 wins, 2 losers, 2 break even.
Not including the USO run.
The BABY reco which I exited with small gains exploded.
Not doing many directional trades lately.
Mostly selling credit spreads and variations of credit spreads.
Cheers Amigos
Inverse Relationships & Trends
On shaky ground, I like to look for long term trends
and inverse relationships and apply these to what could
happen going forward. We had a trend line on the weekly ES
which had only been breached aprox five weeks over the past
couple of years or more. For 2013 at least, there was a great
inverse relationship with the Yen aka 6J. Putting 6J and a
bond ETF up in a set of broad market indicators in a five minute
chart provided good directional forecasting. So far this year,
these relationships haven't changed. Here is the weekly ES with
6J (pink line) showing the uptrend support (yellow dashed line).
We came down to the trend line as the Yen rallied. Yest morning,
and again this morning, in the first hour or so of the cash session,
the yen got crushed. Pulling fibs on the Yen is a good idea.
Cheers
Morning Goodies
Hope you're all doing good.
Cheers
Oil via USO
In two or three weeks now. March 36.50 calls which was a mistake
as I intended to grab April, it is what it is now I guess.
S&R areas identified off weekly /CL chart.
Expanded across a 30 min chart is providing levels of attempts
to move beyond, rejection, back to support, and the next attempt
to break beyond.
Weekly CL with multiple fibs and symmetry. Symmetry levels
are red fire lines stating 100% which is a previous low to high move projected off the most recent low, and or a previous high to low move projected from the most recent high.
Cheers
Costs Vary / Nothing Is Free
Courses range from 95 bucks to 1000 bucks.
The higher priced ones typically consist of course material
in video presentation which is a reasonable cost, then if
you choose they do live market application of the course
material, typically two or three days for which there is
an extra charge bringing the total cost near a grand.
The live application of course material would be for folks
who either didn't comprehend the material and need to
see it done in real time, or folks with nothing better to do
and don't mind the extra cost.
I want to learn how to exploit the benefits of all option trades
whether I employ them or not. So it's been good for me, worth every dollar. If you've worked as a trader for a hedge fund etc, you already comprehend most strategies they teach so there wouldn't be much benefit in pursuing additional training.
Cheers
Hay Manic
Been doing online classes at simpler options.
A cat name John Carter does most of em, some of are
done by Fibonacci Queen Carolyn Boroden. Some are
done by a cat calling himself Bruce Wayne or Bruce
Willis, whatever.
Can pick just the ones ya want and pass on ones
you're not interested in. Get video recordings on
all of em so can do them on your own schedule.
They've been good for me so far anyway.
Have a good holiday season.
Cheers
Hi Chip
Merry Christmas to you and your family!
Hi Manic
Been busy with work, which is good as we almost went under.
Now we have a shortage of manpower, more work than we can do.
Have had almost no time to look at charts, ID plays etc etc.
Still taking option trading classes, the endless journey.
Cheers
PS: Merry Christmas mi amigo
I wouldn't Go Against
One of your calls amigo. You have a good grip on what will prolly happen, seen it over and over again over the years lol. Weeeeeee
I'm watching the yen with this down move and yen is bouncing up this morn so far. But bonds are marching up here, watchin TLT so
these divergences makin the calls tricky.
Merry Christmas to you and all the Goodies gang.
Cheers
S&P Bearish Divergence
Been watching this develop.
Keeping an eye on volume to see if this is real
or just a natural retracement.
Today we've pushed down thru the 21EMA with the 34
EMA at the 1777.50 area. It's only a caution for longs
as of now. The roll over in TSLA and AAPL from thir highs
were both precluded with this ROC vs price bear divergence.
Cheers
Calendar Spread Income Trades
Bot a RUT monthly calendar Fri.
Tuesday, I'll but a weekly calendar, selling the extreme decay
and buying the back monthly, same strike, where decay is much slower. The monthly calendar is boring, the weeklies get more interesting. We can move to iron condors with a twist after getting the monthly & weekly calendars down. Anyone interested in these strategies?
Cheers