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This management team hasn't said anything to it's shareholders in months. I said "News in weeks is coming" for eight months. Let me tell you something about "That Cat" Mitch on Yahoo Forums, he's on CatNip.
Sold it all this morning. I'm better taking a bath then risking Management accomplishing something before a reverse split in May. My powder is way better off somewhere else. Tied my capital up for 8 months in this stinker.
I'm hearing the Amgen partnership news too. Might come out this afternoon, but they were the partner that I keep hearing is getting mentioned.
No excuse for delayed earnings. Likely their is something going on. They could have closed the books on 2014 in a couple days without waiting nearly a month. My belief is that there is something to report here, if not I question management.
Lot of dumping this morning likely just MM/Short covering. As this day progresses may move higher, but none of todays trading will be meaningful. It's all about what news comes out AH when the earnings release. Tomorrow will be the day to watch.
Good financials and news would likely blow 1.06-1.10 right out of the water. Shorts are only surviving during windows where volume is light. Heavy buy volume drags them right out behind the shed.
That's possible. This is the most volume we've seen in nearly six months and it came out of no where. Because so much of it was in larger blocks, its likely a number of institutional buys. Those guys might have heard something.
I wonder if we see a run up to earnings? Could get some bigger buying, and as we've seen, volume is everything.
http://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/2015/02/20/dara-biosciences-inc-files-sec-form-sc-13g-statement-of-acquisition-of-benefi-a-597575.html#.VOlr2Yg76K0
Looks like that 13g from Feb 10 was more then we thought.
This is more volume in a day then we typically get in a week. Either there is some news that has leaked, or the people have finally caught on that earnings should have been reported weeks ago. Something is definitely up, and it looks like it will be paying out in short order.
If Salix executes a buy out of Dara, it will be really interesting. We will all wonder how long that deal was brewing. Same with a partnership on KRN.
That's it for the most part. It's not actually the high school girl, but her family that lives in China and posts on the Yahoo Message boards that have the real skinny, but you were close enough.
No PR for when earnings will be released. Market is closed Monday, I would say the earliest we see earnings will be February 24. This is unheard of for this company, and this one looks really ripe for heavy news. It almost makes me wonder if they aren't about to see a total buyout. Partnership at a minimum.
This is assuming Dara releases earnings next week. The company still hasn't made any commitments to when that release is taking place. Perhaps we see a PR after hours today that they are going to release earnings next Friday, Feb 20th. If not, we are looking at the last week in Feb.
This is quite telling, as the company simply doesn't generate enough revenue to take more then 30 days to close the years books. There aren't enough moving parts. Last year they released on Feb 4th. The fact that it is delayed this far is IMO a guarantee that there is news behind the delay.
Good Luck To All.
I think we're well past that on this one TR. Earnings have never been posted this late before for a quarter, or a year end. Last year was on Feb 4th. There is definitely something coming. Question is, do they post the news of partnership first, or do they do earnings and partnership at the same time.
That's correct, they diminished from 7.69% to 4.99% Not sure what the meaning of holding more then 5% is, unless perhaps it means that you need to file docs for it. Also, these guys are linked with pump and dump overseas. Be on the lookout for SC13 with "Lichtenstein" in the name. Known for trading with shell companies in China. Then look at that swamp over on the Yahoo forums and you will suddenly put the 2+2 together.
I suspect we will see an announcement for tomorrow that they are releasing earnings on the 19th, and then we will see significant news with those earnings. Loading at these prices might prove to be wise, if for no intention other then holding for a week and flipping.
The timing of this is interesting. A year ago, they announced earnings for the quarter and the year on Feb 4th. Each quarter since is either the 12th or the 5th. Here we are on the 9th, and there is no earnings announcement planned at this point, but they start dolling out big blocks of options to staff that can be exercised starting right now.
Something is coming is my guess, and its coming next week sometime.
If its a legit date, its highly unusual and likely contains news.
They may also have cash in or out based on partnership, trials, or outside investment and the books need to stay open until they are ready to announce. If the books for Q4 reveal any kind of deal that isn't completely finished, they may be taking the time needed so they can announce Q4, year end, and news.
In addition, its telling that the links to the Message Boards and Twitter threads on Yahoo Finance are removed or dead from all areas on Yahoo. The link will still resolve if you have it saved locally, but the ability to hit those areas from the Dara Summary page (which is how 99% of people would do it) are gone. Make no mistake, thats by Daras request. They clearly are pulling the rug out from under those paid dumpers.
Definitely some action in the works, and I suspect we will have news in the next ten days.
I wonder if we might be seeing some news after the market closes?
Did Yahoo disable the DARA message board? LOL
Looks like sewage plant worth of paid dumpers just got nuked. I wonder if Dara hit Yahoo with some kind of request, or if the FTC shut it down or something.
Usually around the 12th, and they shoot out an email exactly one week before so I would expect that email Thursday and then next Thursday we get earnings.
Lots of volume for some reason. Either news of a partnership leaked, or earnings are significant and word leaked.
Im starting to think that the MM's may have bailed on this for now. I have noticed that when those morons in the Yahoo forums shut up, the trading suddenly gets thin and the price starts to rise. A great example of this was Jan 2nd.
23k shares in 5 hours...thats definitely new. Could be the MM's that have been knocking it around have moved on.
13K shares in 2.5 hours?
Bunch of little baby trades today between .80-.83. Nothing happening, mostly little blocks of 100. The first sign of real interest sends this stock off to the races. Could come from earnings in the first week of February, could come with FDA news, KRN partnership news, or a strait buy out. IMO this is at these levels for no more then a couple weeks, something sizable is coming.
Valid feedback. However, it's worth noting that many factors have changed since then. Sales are up based on an outbound sales team initiative that has the last two quarters up 400-600% year over growth. The FDA has issued waivers for 1.1 million dollars in fees paid for KRN that they are now refunding based on its promise. The drug also has a double orphan designation. Based on the fact that the stock is essentially trading at nothing but cash value, and the cash value just increased by 8% based purely on the waivers, and the sales growth appears on a pretty extreme upward trend, this company could be profitable by the end of the year. This doesn't account for a highly likely partnership announcement that could add 10-20 million dollars to their cash pile to fund operations and KRN clinical trials. That announcement alone would have the company trading at 2.00 per share just at a cash valuation alone. Once the KRN drug is priced in, the upside to this stock is radical.
The company has until May to establish Nasdaq compliance at over 1.00 valuation for ten concurrent days before needing to evaluate a Reverse Split. The likelihood that no announcement takes place between now and then is extremely low. In all recent presentations, the company is projected to announce both FDA roadmap for KRN drug approval, and a partnership "In early 2015." This was as recent as two weeks ago at an investor presentation in San Francisco.
In December the company issued an 8K detailing some moves with purchasing outstanding stock that is anticipated to be greasing the way forward for their KRN partnership as one of the last pieces outstanding. It is my opinion (as well as the opinion of Daniel Ward with Seeking Alpha) that this is an investment primed to make some massive gains in the next 2-8 weeks.
I could see Dara in the 1.50-2.50 range somewhere with some partnership news. Some additional factors would be how earnings look early next month. Remember that they will be able to pull that waiver money into that fourth quarter because the FDA expenses were accrued in 2013 and 2014. So its likely that earnings could be a near break even, with partnership news further locking in longevity. I actually expect FDA and partnership news in the next 2-6 weeks. In their investors slide deck, they site FDA and partnership news in early 2015.
Jason Napodano has called Dara an "enigma" for its trading patterns. Most other stocks in this stage would be in the 1.20-1.40 zone, and when announcing a 1.1 million dollar credit on FDA waivers with the stock at 1.07 pre-market, it drops 8% which is just ridiculous. Until there is news, we are probably stuck here.
It appears to me to be deliberate manipulation. Every day, this stock gets slammed hard out of the gate, and seconds before the close. I can only guess a lack of buy interest has this in the hands of some folks that are crushing it. Its not based on fair value, or what the stock should reflect going forward. Its all about slamming it. Even on a day when the waiver announcement was going to add 1.1 million to cash on hand, the stock goes down 7%. Ridiculous. At this point, the only thing that I believe pushes this north is news from earnings or a KRN partnership.
I'd love to hear what some others on the board think.
Anything come out of today's presentation in SF? I haven't heard a word.
I would say that if there is a contract already inked, we will find out something after the market closes, or before the open on Monday. After hours today seems like it would generate interest over the weekend.
Today's trading has me perplexed I must say. 750k shares trade on a day where Dara is receiving 1.1 million in waiver refunds, and it goes down 8%. I'm a bit stumped, it seems like some serious manipulation.
Wow, say hello to another 1.1 million in cash on hand. Major buying happening pre market, it spiked to 1.30, and its been riding over a dollar. Today looks like it could be real interesting.
I think that without the 8K announcement clearing the way for a KRN partner on Dec 15, the fair market value should have been around 1.30-1.40 easily. With that announcement tipping the hand that clearly they have a partner lined up, this thing should already be trading at 1.75-2.25. I expect news of the partner to be released this month (likely in the next ten days) and then this thing will start trading over 2.00.
I agree. And if that was in their plans, my guess is that they would announce either Monday of next week, or Friday. If they announced Monday, they would have the advantage of people talking about it all week before the show on the 12th. The next best thing in my mind is Friday. They do have the advantage of letting the stock soar before the show on the 12th, which would drive the price up for potential investors.
Yeah it looks like the wait on this one is finally about over. Thrilled to see it get back to 1.00 during a trading session. It's about time for the institutional buyers to dive all over this one. The tax year is over, and the buying begins. I think that news on this one is coming any day now, and buying interest should continue to sky rocket. I agree that this one could be trading in the 2.00-2.50 range very shortly. And I think we will see this return to 1.20-1.30 range next week as news of the rise spreads. That's assuming of course that we don't get news next week...if that happened its game over. This is an awesome time to be a shareholder, kudos to those that had the stomach to hang in there during Q4 as institutions sold off for tax reasons.
Dara doing a presentation on January 12 in SF? Hadn't seen the info on that. I do think news on partnership/KRN5500 is imminent at this point. Im also looking forward to the earnings release in early February.
Lots of volume. Not sure if we are seeing acquisition of shares going into next year, or people selling off to realize loss before December 31. It actually looks like Dara is about to run. Partnership announcement for KRN 5500 looks imminent.
Count me in boys. I agree with EBuilder. At this point, if we see some K work and January push, this could (and likely will) wind up back in the 1.25-2.00 range. At that point, the partner will determine what I do.