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Markets never crash when large IPOs are in the wings. That's especially true when Goldman is the host for this wondrous IPO and also a major market maker. (No conflict of interest? !!!)
How about a long lingering a-b-c-x-a-b-c-x-a-b-c till ohhhh, let's say mid-March.
Two touches are safer. The second one is created by the MM to either test selling or buying pressure.
Please describe for us the characteristics of a B-wave in an uptrending market.
What specifically distinguishes it from a wave 1,3, or 5? You are an expert so this should not pose any difficulty for you.
Mail.
Drip...drip...drip...drip....
I'm in the 2040 +/- 3% camp.
That puts us at 2100.
Goldman is working overtime.
"..often wrong...."
It does not matter. The Big Picture is that we are due for a C-Wave and what will be the catalyst for the decline is to be seen. I can only think of nine things but the day is young.
2040+ should complete this wondrous round. You have shown the yellow brick road for this already. :)
From 1870.....
May we say it's a classic 5-wave affair with even an acceleration gap in wave 3 if you have any doubts.
Bigger picture:
We are looking at completing a wave 2 a-b-c (alternation), after which comes a decline that everyone will remember. :)
The ongoing decline is in place.
I was looking for more damage in the Shanghai. I don't see a sustainable bounce here until their exchange heads down again and forms a base.
$SSEC 2600 seemed like a nice destination point.
I watched the pre-market decline here earlier in the week. It was ferocious. There was no attempt to match the volume with the decline in XOM. The MMs no longer have to defend or justify their actions.
(And no, I do not own XOM.)
Let me qualify my comment. I believe Wave 5 is complete. It could well be that a "B" takes us to a higher high but I believe that will be a nominal high. Above 2200 and my Wave 5 call is incorrect.
You may want to look in at the Shanghai exchange($SSEC) as well. We are now one happy global family. :)
The TOP is in. (A B-Wave in all likelihood will take it to a higher high, but, I think enough people are around to create the new number.)
The daily noise and hype is deafening.
Bear markets end with Exhaustion, not with bottom-feeders buying the last dip.
All the best.
From one year ago to today how much has the DJIA risen? More than a thousand points, yes ?
Consider that all Bull markets end in Plateaus of Distribution. (Let us note that final plateaus usually last eighteen months.)
All of the above can be confirmed by the skeptics at large.
Now here is something to chew on:
The Bull market began in year 1982 at DJIA 859. If you were to convert today's move into year 1982 points you would come away with the following:
The DJIA has moved a sum total of 82 points from one year ago to today. (I am saying that the last 1000 point rise has been a plateau.)
* * *
Most of the talking heads with purple and yellow ties were not even ten years-old, let alone born, during the 1973-1974 Bear Market. The only saving grace is that they will remember the coming Recession that will arrive within the next two years.
She will lay claim to being correct whether we go up or down. If we go up from here she will be correct. If we correct first and then rally, the talking heads will say her call was early but correct.
The bottom-line is that we are not at the C-wave stage for her call to be incorrect.
A higher high is still on the horizon.
Tomorrow is the third Friday in the month. Vanishing time.
Yesterday was probing by MMs to measure selling pressure.
D E C L I N E
D E C L I N E
It's fascinating how writers spin their interpretations of data.
Rashomon: Three Views
Number 1
Federal Budget
By
Michael D. Tanner
March 28, 2011
The U.S. government is about to exceed its statutory debt limit of $14.3 trillion.
...
Driving this massive increase in the size and cost of government are so-called “entitlement programs,” ...Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Indeed, by 2050, those three programs alone will consume 18.4 percent of GDP.
Number 2
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2012/10/federal-spending-by-the-numbers-2012
Number 3
A Glossary of Political Economy Terms
by Dr. Paul M. Johnson
Entitlement programs ...include Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, most Veterans' Administration programs, federal employee and military retirement plans, unemployment compensation, food stamps, and agricultural price support programs.
Since the middle 1980s, entitlement programs have accounted for more than half of all federal spending. Entitlement programs leave Congress with no more than about 25% of the annual budget to be scrutinised for possible cutbacks....
<...when the SS Act was passed, it was expected that only half of the... population would receive ...benefits.>
From experience:
It requires $6000/ month for "assisted living" to "house" each parent over 100 years of age.
It makes for a rather interesting future.
<None of the stuff being passed now (if the vote approves) has much to do with debt growth.>
That's correct.
<The only way to fix that is to make significant changes to entitlements.>
Sorry. Changes are not forthcoming. What's coming at us in the second half of this year into 2014 is a Recession. To get there we will be giving government workers 2% to 3% increases in their salaries. This will lead to the Inflation that is necessary to pay down (in theory) the "national" debt. Those earning between $100,000 and $300,000 will be preyed upon by taxes.
Permits and licenses will slowly drown people. One can see it already in car registrations and environmental permits. A new inflicted "economy of scale" will lead to business extinction for many. It's an ignorant public, not a stupid one. Read the posts on ZeroHedge. It's guns, gold and barricades for these people. A fascinating tribe of 75.000.
Folks need to spend more time watching one of the world's most important sovereign nation states........Exxon.
A Healthy New Year to One 'n All
Traders:
My indicators say, for Monday, the Financial Cliff is a pseudo-event.
Seein' is believin'
I can't recall a sustainable rise starting from "an obligatory-short-covering- DJIA +170."
Back to fishin'
You have met acceptable retracement levels.
Take a buck, run and reload.
I thought the first few sentences might be a foreshadowing of what's to come:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/eur-soars-most-october-2011-greek-announcement-here-what-happened-after
I'm on the sidelines. This Gold claim is all yours.:)
Thank you, Snoot :)
looks 2 me like we r 4% from a tradeable bottom on the djia
XOM closed down $2.86. In the AH it IMMEDIATELY opened up $2.86. It's now up $0.04.
The main event is in the AH behind the Big Tent.
Wednesday arrived on Thor's day.
We are in a C-wave down.
U have mail :)
Up next:....Day 3....Wednesday
We need predictions:
DAY 1 Monday Opening UP, closing FLAT
DAY 2 Tuesday Moderate UP
Wednesday DOWN
I rest my two-day prediction
"Somebody should really call Berny, and just ask."
I did and the FED had a menu:
"Press Zero for the amount of interest you are being paid in your bank accounts. Press zero again. What is it you do not understand?"
"Press 1 if Greece and call 3053248811 for the time of day and a new tin can."
"Press 2 if Spain and please leave a detailed message so as not to have us call back and disturb your siesta."
"Press 3 if Italy. Please wait you turn. All circuits are busy now and for the foreseeable future."
"Press 4 if the IMF. How many times have I told you that I can't take any more of your calls or be seen in public with you again."
"Press 5 if Porter. Your request for ten million dollars is reasonable since it's not $100 billion."
"Press 6 if Snoot. We have a gentleman from Kenya who wishes to wire to your bank fifty million dollars. Please leave your phone number and bank account."
"Press 7 if Jamie Dimon. Dinner at eight."
"Press 8 if Santorum. Did you really call the President a n....."
"Press 9 if you wish to travel to a new planet. Beep...beep...beep...beep...
"Press 10 if you are tired of Short-covering rallies.
"Press 11 if if you wish to do lunch, end this call or end your life."
Slow Stochastic displaying "rising wedge."
Monday is Day 1 of 2.
Two more days before a pullback.
The air is thin and the winds are picking up.
I see you are rather busy:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/profile.aspx?user=300228
FWIW
We are back in the $OEX Mt. Everest Death Zone.
As Sir Edmond Hillary said: "Getting to the top is only half the climb."
And a special thanx to Teaparty who posted a few years back the most important chart seen in my lifetime.
Where oh where have the years gone, kind Sir?
Three months ago my data had us coming apart in late June. Nothing has changed. It looks to me like we are in imbedded 1,2s. What's of interest is that the MMs are building a position NOW against the Public.
If you are a trader the caveats remain the same.
I'm impressed with the MACRO Song 'n Dance evil geniuses.
A Banking Oligarchy IS the Black Swan.
The obligatory computer short-covering DJIA +170. NMNL(Nothing more, nor less)
Business as usual.
P.S. Greece ain't leavin'.
It should be noted that last Friday's action in the CBOE P/C was some of the most defensive numbers seen in years if not the entire decade.
Tight lines
U noticed.:)
DJIA approx. 12,815: From 11:00am this past Tuesday to...
Need to keep it embalmed for the "viewing" on MAY 19th
--The Ghost of Richard Ney
Tight lines.
3:00 am
Nothing has changed from last night's early mornin' prediction.