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CIM just pierced back inside the lower bollie of the 200 moving average on the 4-hour chart, while the RSI 100 is at all time lows and just now turning up - a combination of TA that has proven very profitable for me.
For some reason price really reacts to the 200 period Bollinger bands at the 4-hour level, especially when it coincides with an extreme level at a high RSI value that isn't too reactive to short-term price swings and really shows just how oversold/ overbought a stock has become (where you have to actually go in and draw the oversold and overbought levels and can't necessarily depend on the 30 and 70 levels as representing true oversold and overbought regions, respectively).
OFG
Double bottom breakout on OFG with a gap above. Target around 14.40.
OFG at stockcharts.com
Thank you.
I don't know if anyone here is familiar with crypto-currency, or "Bitcoin" in particular?
I find it interesting that the monthly spot silver chart has a similar set-up to Bitcoin's daily chart. Both had a "bump-and-run" pattern play out and both currently have their prices sitting at the long-term trend line.
Obviously, they're happening at different time-frames, and Bitcoin's fall to the LT trend-line was slower off of the parabolic high than silver's (comparing daily candle price action to silver's monthly candles). However, they should, in theory, react about the same at this level, all else being equal fundamentally (which, of course, is no small statement to make).
I'm long on both, btw.
Here's the charts for anyone interested:
Yea for falling wedges!!!
Does anyone know a ticker for "bitcoin" (not Bitcoin Shop Inc (BTCS), pinkie, but the real crypto-currency in relation to the USD) on stock-charts, or how one would find that info at the stockchart site?
As an addition to my last post, if we look solely at opening and closing prices (throw out intra-day price spikes), then UWTI now has two tests of resistance at about 3.90 and two tests for support at about 3.12, forming what might be the beginning of a price channel, with the current price being at the bottom of that channel.
However, I'd prefer RSI be more oversold (below 20) to support this possibility.
In terms of chart technicals, it's fairly solid here, IMO.
Notice how the inverted hammer a couple of days back led to two straight profit taking candles. Now we have a hammer. This indicates to me that it's likely to move up for a day or two...that candle itself can't suggest much beyond that timeframe.
There's a "confluence" of support below the price where the 20 day simple moving average sits near the fib 61.2 retracement level from the recent impulse wave, which is approximately where the price closed after piercing that level intra-day with that long price tail.
RSI is sitting at about 50, so it's neither overbought nor oversold. MACD has been improving since weeks before the possible bottom was put in - momentum is apparently shifting as the price range has flattened in the recent weeks. CMF agrees with the positive shift of sentiment as it is trending up over the last month, and there's plenty of (rising) volume to support these positive shifts in technicals.
The only hindrance that I see on the chart is that it failed to put in a higher high on the last push and the recent low was just hit (this could be the start of a descending triangle pattern). Thus, there currently is no trend as I see it.
Overall, I'm more positive at this level than negative. That being said, if 0 is extremely negative, 50 neutral, and 100 extremely positive, I'm at about 55 right now. Take this however you wish.
Speaking of bottom fishers on the big boards. I have two BB stocks on watch for double bottom confirmations. Both have a lot of room to run (short-term and especially long-term).
Here they are (PCOM and DDD):
PCOM
DDD
Both charts have strong (strengthening with the days) technicals, IMO.
I'm actually looking to invest in both of these stocks (after selling half of the initial position at a logical target), as I believe they both have positive days ahead in their respective fields and a lot of potential for growth and speculative boosts in their valuations.
3-D Systems (DDD - NYSE) is a 3-D printer manufacturer and retailer at the forefront of that new technology. They manufacture commercial and home 3-D printers that are capable of printing out things ranging from plastic toys, to metal car parts, to the rubber soles of shoes, to decorative cookies, and much more.
What can be printed is only limited by the user's imagination and skill with (grasp of) the technology's software. There are many examples of very intricate and detailed "printings" (toys, cookies, shoes, etc.) online that, IMO, match or exceed the capabilities of technologies that are still being used in large scale manufacturing.
Points International (PCOM - Nasdaq) really has my attention.
Here's a description of PCOM from Yahoo finance:
"The company's services enable the sale of loyalty currencies, such as frequent flyer miles, hotel points, and credit card points, as well as enhance loyalty program consumer offerings and their back end operations. It also operates Points.com, a consumer focused reward management Website that provides members of multiple loyalty programs the ability to track and manage their loyalty currencies, including their financial assets. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada."
According to Points International's website (points.com) they currently have 45 partnerships (American Express, Alaska Airlines, Amazon.com, American Airlines, Best Buy, Hilton Hotels, Southwest Airlines, Starbucks, PayPal, just to name a few) and have accrued over 88 billion reward points to date.
Rob MacLean, the company's CEO, recently stated publicly that he foresees an accelerating growth for PCOM starting with this year.
I watched a video detailing what to expect as an employee of this company from their price.com website. It mostly talked about the general work atmosphere, what they're looking for in a person as a worker (in terms of work ethics, goals, and level of passion towards the job position), and introducing the founders of the company (president, CEO, head of marketing, etc.). I must say, I was very impressed with the presentation and the message that they had to share. It really appears to be a company that's run by genuinely honest, passionate, and intelligent human beings whom each share a common goal to continue creating and perfecting a technological system that they believe will add value to the world of loyalty programs...and it's a VAST world that's only growing with time.
I haven't looked too much into their financials yet, but I like what I'm seeing thus far and I believe that the points rewards market provides the potential for a lot of "mining" and profitability, for many years to come.
That's amazing. Must have some kind of intuition (ESP?) that you're not consciously aware of, and it only bubbles up from time to time as these predictions...or something like that, lol.
Just think, what's the odds of simply guessing where price will be when we're talking about a range of numbers from 0 to 2,100+, granted we all know that it ain't going to zero, but still a very large range to choose from.
Another look at the 5 Min. SPY with Fibs extensions, from previous channeling areas:
Day traders must love that 1.618 level...at least for the time being, here with SPY.
A 1.618 extension from this level, assuming the close forms the bottom of a new temporary price channel, would put this price below the only support shown on this chart - the start of aforementioned gap fill.
I think it's short time for SPY (S&P 500). Instead of shorting SPY, I'm looking to go long on SPXS (3X Inverse of S&P 500), buying on a pull-back to the 0.618 level from the recent move, stop just below bottom bottom support, target is first major resistance level (for about a 2.2 reward to risk). Single bottom bounce (or "ugly double bottom" bounce) play.
There's a good chance that I'm wrong, but the TA supports my stance, IMO, and I'm of the opinion that the S&P is due for a good sized correction.
I was going to choose SH (1X inverse) but I noticed that it doesn't track the S&P 500 that well at all. For instance, the first major support on the S&P 500 (major resistance for the inverse ETFs) sits at about a 2.3 reward to risk ratio, when buying at a 50% pullback to the first resistance level, and setting the stop just above top resistance. The SH, on the other hand, which is supposed to track the S&P 500 (inversely) gives us just a fraction over a 1 (1.2) reward/ risk going off of those same parameters for buy price, stop and target.
That's a HUGE difference.
I expected the 1X to track the S&P closer than the 2x and 3x ETFs in terms of ratios between support/ resistance levels, but it doesn't appear that way upon further inspection. Not by a long shot.
Also, worth noting, the trade plan is to sell half the position at target one, moving the stoploss up to the original buy zone (break even point) and aiming at the second target for the other half of the position.
I'm not sure if my math is correct, but I think this works out to 1.5 risk/reward ratio overall ($100 risk turns into $50 profit at target 1 and another $100 profit at target 2, I'm assuming the distance from the buy point to 0.618 is the same as from 0.618 to 0.382...but I'm not sure though, haven't looked into it enough), with the added benefit of locking 1/4 of total potential profits (of shooting for target 2 with all of the position) at the first target and simultaneously removing risk once those shares sell and the stop is moved to break even. I've heard that this type of trade plan mathematically favors the trader over the long run, starting with the 1:1 risk and then trading with "free shares" from there.
Also (# 2 :) ), this pattern is supposedly 80% successful at hitting target #1. I'm not sure what the success rate is on target 2, but I'd assume that momentum indicators might help with determining whether it has a better than average chance of reaching that level or not. How price reacts to the fibs resistance might be another useful indicator.
Here's a cleaner look at the pattern:
And another note on tradview.com, there are many coders within the trading community at that site that make their own indicators and overlays and share them (free of charge) with the rest of the comminity, some of which seem to have decent track records at catching bottoms or putting you into a position of jumping early into new trends (this according to comments that I've been reading...I'm naturally skeptical of such claims). Also, the basic package is only $9.90 per month and it provides you with unlimited chart analysis saves (for watchlist stocks and online trade logs), realtime intraday data across all timeframes (1 minute, 2 minutes, 5,..., monthly, etc.) and an open community of traders that offer their own chart interpretations and provide the occasional tip offs, much like here on Lowtrade's IHUB board.
It's a good deal if you ask me. Worth looking into, IMO.
And one more look at that pattern with stops and targets labeled (stop is red line, two targets are the green lines, point D is the buy area):
Hey Lowtrade, I recently discovered a Fibs ratio pattern called the "cipher pattern" through a pro currency trader and have done some research into it. According to Jason Stapleton (the aforementioned trader) this pattern is successful about 80% of the time, working solely off of the principles of Fibs retracement and Fibs extensions and how the market typically reacts to those levels.
The rule is to find an impulse move and call it leg X to A that retraces to B at a Fibs level between 0.328 and 0.618 and then bounces to C that extends beyond A (breaking above it) to between the 1.272 and 1.414 levels (27% to 41% of the X to A move above A) and then breaks back down (below A) to D at the 0.768 retracement level of the X to A leg. This completes the pattern. A bounce is expected from here (in the opposite direction of the C to D leg).
The stop is placed about 10 ticks below X for going long or above X for shorting. The first target is the 0.618 retracement level of the C to D leg and the second is the 0.382 level.
This works out to a 1:1 risk/reward ratio for the first target, but if the pattern is successful 80% of the time, this would still be a great trade set-up.
I'm wondering, do you, or anyone else reading this for that matter, know anything about this pattern? Would you expect it to work as successfully on securities as it does for forex and currency trading? It seems to me that human psychology ultimately drives the market, which is what makes patterns work in the first place, and that what works on one market should work on all about the same.
I found what I think constitutes a valid cipher pattern in the stock BRFS, you can have a look at it below:
Included in the image is the web address of a new charting site that I recently discovered called "tradingview.com". I find it as a good alternative to stockcharts, offering everything that stockcharts does (in terms of indicators and overlays), but less clunky and time consuming when it comes to researching price history in a way that you're "zoomed in" and can see what's actually happening, without bars that are squeezed to nearly nanometer widths.
BTW, the stop, buy, and target for this BRFS cipher pattern are: 21.96 23.21 and 24.75, respectively. The second target is about 25.69.
Yes I have, especially from this board and particularly from Lowtrade, to which I am grateful.
Thanks.
Yeah, can't believe it's already 1000. Could have written a book with all the time that I've wasted typing away on this site, lol.
I see. You got my interest. Mind PMing me price point/ subscription details?
Hmm, I see. Does this program scan out "movers" on its own or does the user have to set up specific scans to find them?
Looks like a high "fact" is a buy support or indicator (on the table to the right of that image that you put up in your earlier post)?
What exactly goes into calculating that "fact", if you don't mind my asking?
I'm not expecting specifics - I realize this your secret recipe, here - just a rough idea as to the angle. Is it heavy RSI based? Volume based? etc.
ATLC:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ATLC&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p54293422813]
Been watching this one for the past 3 or 4 days as a potential cup w/ handle/ flag breakout. Big upside with good volume support on the flag pole formation and a pretty lining up of the long-term moving averages (50,100,200). Doesn't seem to even want to test the FIBs 32 level. Granted, that can change in an instant, but I think this also shows strength in the previous sentiment, during the flag pole formation.
Good points lowtrade. Just a matter of perspective, and I could use a shifting when it comes to these kinds of situations.
MGNX up over 10% today. Would have hit my target if I didn't get stopped out at market open :(
The part that gets me is that I knew at the time that I set my stoploss that it was too tight and I couldn't find it in myself to move the stop lower after my plan was in action. One of my trading rules, that I treat more like a law than a rule of thumb, is to never move the stoploss lower, only higher. My intuition would have made me many a buck on this one...
Sorry for my complaining, just trying to deal in my own way with the temporary pains from this stinger. I know from experience that it'll dissipate with time. Just trying hard not to rub people the wrong way during the recovery process, lol.
Since the S&P channeled between about 750 and 1500 from 1996 to 2008, a channel distance of 750 points; IMO, a reasonable target for the short-mid term high (on the monthly scale) would be around 2,250 (1500+750).
I'd guesstimate the max target at around 2,500, which would give this move, starting with the resistance break at the 1500 area, the same coverage as the 1994 to 2000 move (1500 - 500; roughly).
Just trying to think in terms of symmetry, but I'm not sure if the market operates this way on increasingly larger scales of time.
Any thoughts/ insights on this that someone wouldn't mind sharing?
Thanks for the suggestions, smokey.
I'm aware of these things and have even spent many hundred hours meditating in the past - holding onto the "I am", I'm not sure if this will have any meaning to you, but it might be worth a google search if not - and have even had noticeable benefits because of it, particularly more mental clarity, less stress, more energy, and greater awareness in general. But, for some reason, I always seem to give up on it after a few weeks of practice, choosing to go back to the old habits and then losing out on those benefits.
My thoughts and philosophies are very seductive to me, to the point of it being difficult to leave them even for a few moments. They're like a drug and I'm the addict. I guess it's more or less the same for everyone though.
I think there is a lot going on in the universe that we only notice when we proceed along fairly slowly... Sometimes people who meditate or find other ways to slow down for significant periods of time, will notice more of these situations than other people do.
Yes, I agree.
Sometimes I think that I would know all the answers to the universe if I simply stopped trying to understand it and stopped spending all this time hypothesizing about it. Ironically, my fascination with philosophy might be the only thing standing between being ignorant ol' me, always with questions and never with answers, and being a wise sage, the next Buddha...lol.
Again, who knows?
If the universe already determines what's going to happen, then there's no real freewill, nor chance events. It would mean that my experiments to effect outcomes, and the effects that they actually appeared to have, were all pre-determined by the universe, as was the day of my birth and date of my death and everything that happens in between. That would basically make me a mere observer in a play, or eyeballs floating in space like a leaf in the wind.
I find this to be an interesting perspective.
The thing I find most interesting about it is trying to make sense of how awareness (consciousness) fits into the equation. If the universe is entirely pre-determined, then my awareness and all the contents of my consciousness must also have been mapped out from beginning to end. But this doesn't necessarily have to be true. It's possible that the universe is conscious (intelligent) and spares its own awareness to life. Perhaps the universe is watching itself through us, living through us.
Maybe we do control everything that happens in life with our unconscious minds - the universe's mind - and simply aren't consciously aware of it. In other words, as people, our lives are pre-determined - no free will - as the universe we have the power to choose the direction of life - freewill within the limits of matter and energy. Or maybe I'm off by light-years, lol...who knows?
This is my cup of tea, here.
First of all, I thank you for your response and appreciate your compliments:
In my opinion it requires a reasonable amount of intelligence, that in itself illiminates the masses. Then it takes total commitment, hard work, investment of time, energy and determination. What percentage of the population that is aware of EWP do you think is willing to make that kind of investment?
Fair enough. I didn't mean to imply that EWP is easy to grasp, btw. I agree that it's not as simple as learning it once and then spending a few afternoons devising a foolproof plan, I realize that it's far, far from that.
why does EWP work? The emotional response of the herd swings in consistent,recurring and observable patterns.
"But forecasters' concerns should be not whether human response is rational or irrational, only that it is observable and systematic." Allen Greenspan
This is more what I was searching for. But I still can't help but wonder whether this pattern will continue to re-occur "infinitely" into the future. If we don't totally understand the driving mechanism then there can be no way of knowing if, when, or how it will change. I realize that emotions play a huge role here and that we're basically emotionally identical to humans dating back millennia, but there could be more at play here.
I still contend that psychological manipulation of some kind is likely occurring, whether deliberate or not, by those at the top of the food chain, possibly as determined by nature and our evolutionary drive to be the fittest and most likely to flourish and successfully pro-create. When others are strong it's more difficult to compete, so it's obviously of competitive advantage to hide one's own secrets of the trade and to mislead the countless others who're trying to take over that top position.
One final thought. There is no "they" who know and are in control.
I agree to the extent that there's no secret society like the "Illuminati" that's covertly controlling international politics and relations, like some kind of puppet show. I do believe, though, that it's inherent in our nature to strive to one up the rest of the crowd as a means to achieve more security and comfort and that this drive to be at the top; to have more money; more property, more possessions, more people willing to stand up for and protect us naturally grows as we continue to push on that pedal and rise in the ranks.
Therefore, it's our politicians, those who've already achieved great heights, who've fed that greed for so long and now have more than ever before, that are now devising our rules and regulations. It's THEIR security and the security of their loved ones that's of prime importance to them, let's not kid ourselves here. They can't afford to make it possible for us, the majority, to be their equals, especially if the currently available resources can afford that. If that were to happen, they'd no longer have power and they'd lose that sense of security that they so cherish.
I also agree that man has freewill, but I fear that we typically don't reach our potential more because of how we're brought up to think about ourselves than our inborn traits.
Thanks again for your response.
Interesting stuff sentiment, thank you for sharing.
I typically don't like to talk about metaphysics and spirituality, due to the impossibility of proving or disproving any such claims, not to mention I prefer not to be labeled the "cuckoo" in the nest - the guy who's out of touch with reality. That all being said, I think that our subjective experiences along with our deeper feelings of intuition are far more valuable and meaningful than we tend to give them credit, and that much can be learned about the nature of reality by simply paying closer attention to ourselves, without necessarily ever having to step foot out of our little caves nor needing to hear or speak a word to anyone else. Many of the famous ancient Greek philosophers emphasized the importance of "know[ing] thyself" because they understood that you can't possibly see the objective world clearly without first having a clarity of perception about the subject (self) and how it relates to that world.
I sense that if one has the courage to look with sincerity for one's true nature, at the deepest level possible, willing to find the answer at any and all costs, the truth will be eventually unravel from within, after layers upon layers of built up beliefs and concepts fall away due to your courageous decision to detach yourself from your past ideas. In the process of this unraveling, insights will happen, and certain visions may pop into consciousness that demonstrate to you that you're on to something, or moving closer towards the answer. Things like out of body experiences and astral travel and experiencing "oneness" with all of life are all possibly various levels of insights into a deeper, truer, nature of consciousness - previous unconscious layers becoming available to conscious awareness - and it's the inner sense of how true these experiences are that's the guide and which is of most importance to eventually reach the goal.
On this note, I experimented for some time with the idea that my beliefs (faith) have influence over seemingly random events in the "objective" reality. One such experiment I decided to see if by changing my expectations about my ability to win at poker, whether it would have a noticeable effect on my results. For about a week's time I would meditate for at least 30 minutes to about an hour a day, trying to fill myself with the expectation of winning out of pure luck, imagining what it feels like to simply be lucky and have cards fall my way, and visualizing having seemingly impossible streaks of luck with the flop, turn, and river, regardless of the strength of my whole cards - basically hypnotizing myself into a state of expecting to be lucky at Texas Hold'em poker.
The results?
I was surprised, to say the least, to win four straight money poker games with my buddies - five played in one game, four in two others, and three in the last - without ever really having any good whole cards and mostly winning on "bad beats" and totally lucky rivers. To put it into proper context, I'm usually the guy who does everything right, reads the opponent accurately, sets the sucker up to pay him off, puts himself into the highest percentage chance (statistically) to win, and then has the turn and river drown him, despite all those right calls. Up to that point, having played probably hundreds of poker games with these same people, I had never won more than two games in a row (as far as I can recall) and very seldom would win more than 1 out 5 games. I definitely wasn't seen as the "lucky guy", that's for sure.
Now, to an outsider, this could easily be passed off as a coincidence. Perhaps I just so happened to play with all these fantasies of changing my luck at the exact same moment that the law of averages decided to step into the picture to equalize the long stretch of past bad beats, mere randomness. But it didn't feel that way to me, nor did it to my friends. I received several remarks during each game from them about how unbelievably lucky I was and even moments where they'd stare in disbelief at the seeming impossibility of how often, and in what kind of ways, the cards would fall in my favor, almost as if the deck was set up to get big bets out of them and leave me raking big pots on POS whole cards - I mean, we're talking 4,9 unsuited, 7,2 unsuited, maybe a 3,8 suited every now and then, beating out A,K suited, A,A, K,K Q,Q, J,Q suited, etc. This went on for probably over a hundred hands at a rate of 1 out of every 2 or 2.5 hands.
And I've yet to mention the weirdest, most statistically unlikely, experience that I had with this experiment. On the last of these four poker games, a game between one of my friends, my younger brother, and myself, there was a stretch of three consecutive hands in which three 6s were dealt, all of which helped only me, three 7s were dealt (ditto), and four 8's were dealt (ditto), respectively. The first two hands, I was dealt the pair (6,6 and 7,7) as whole cards and the first card that was turned was another, to make three of a kind - I won both those hands...I can't remember how it played out, or what cards my opponents had.
After these first two hands I got a few more remarks about how unbelievably lucky I had been over the last few games and a mention about how odd it was to be dealt successive pairs with the first turn matching it, to which I believe I said something along the lines of "yeah, wouldn't it be weird if I was dealt a pair of 8s and an 8 shows up on the first turn?" That got a good chuckle out of them.
But let me tell you, after being dealt an 8,X (can't remember the other whole card for the life of me) and having a little sigh of inner relief about having seemingly avoided the "twilight zone" of poker moments, and then seeing the turn come up 8,8,8, and then feeling the electricity in the air and the instant goosebumps and standing hair throughout my body... then looking over at my brother and friend and seeing the same blank stare of a man who's suddenly been hit with 100 tons of reality that they weren't ready for...and the tension that built within them as they awaited the turn and river to see if I caught it, in what appeared to be an endless stretch of time, and the mixed feelings of apologetic shame and utter disbelief that bubbled up from within myself when it came time to show them my quad 8s after just hitting 7,7,7 and 6,6,6 in the previous two hands... it was the strangest moment of shared disbelief that I've ever had, to drastically understate it.
They both agreed that something didn't feel right about it, there seemed to be something in the air, some kind of other-worldly energy at play, and started wondering if it was all intended to give a message of some type from the "other realm"...or some such nonsense. They probably speculated for a good hour about what that message might be before they finally decided to come off the high of all the earlier excitement and return to their comfortable realities. At that time I was positive, I just knew somehow, that it was the last of my luck, I could feel it resonating from a "deeper knowing". It wore off, and it did it in the most spectacular fashion...and, wouldn't you know it? I haven't won a game since! (going on somewhere between 6 or 8 games now, in a time that I don't play nearly as often as I used to - it's been at least 2 summers ago now since that game happened)
In a way, I'm kind of disappointed that I haven't experimented more with this since that time, as it really felt like it offered me some strong evidence of validity that had a deep impact on my views of reality at that time. I guess life took a hold on me again, giving me the illusion that I don't have time for it anymore. I honestly don't know why I haven't given more time to it.
I still struggle to understand why EWP appears to always hold true for the overall market movements.
Why in waves of 5s and 3s alternating at all these different scales? What in our collective psychology would cause such predictable patterns to arise? And, most surprisingly to me, why, when this pattern has seemingly held up since the 1920's, almost 100 years now, haven't we all grown massively rich off of it?
Perhaps not as many people are aware of EWP as I've assumed in the past, or maybe we're collectively too stupid or lazy to understand it and to profit based on that knowledge. Maybe it's inevitable that the market behaves as it does and that a certain percentage of society remains totally unaware, or closed to the idea of it.
This leads me to even more questions: Does nature fix percentages on the number of intelligent vs. unintelligent, aware vs. unaware, at any given time? Is everything determined by some mechanical process of nature, that's totally outside of our control, both at the individual and collective level of consciousness? Is it purely genetic mutations that causes evolutionary growth? Do we really have any choice whatsoever, or are all our apparent choices coming from unconscious depths to which we have no control or way to access?
Or, is this current system of predictable behavior mostly the result of our current model of society, shaping our habits and modulating our decision making processes to certain degrees? If so, how did we ever come to this current model? By mere chance (evolution)? By the elite as a way to stay in control of the majority, remain in know, in power, and to keep the herd as far away from it (knowledge and power) as possible?
I agree with both sides of the nature and nurture debate to a certain point, so I believe that it's a combination of all the above that come into play; however, I'm inclined to believe that current wealth distribution within our society is as lopsided as it is, not because the majority are inherently too stupid or incapable of creating a rich life for themselves, but rather due to us all being pumped so full of B.S. by the "program" (public education, television programs, newspapers, media, etc.), and at such a young age, that we're mostly too confused and distracted by what amounts to irrelevant noise, things like flickering lights on a cathode ray tube, to ever apply our innate intelligence in a creative and beneficial manner.
IMO, most of us focus on the wrong things, things that destroy us from the inside out, totally unaware of the damage that we're doing to ourselves all along; unaware because we were never taught how to be in tune with our senses and, therefore, too stuck in the mental concepts, that the accumulative psychological programming created, to perceive our actions and their consequences for what they really are. We unwittingly waste our energy and, after many years of going on like this, without finding any lasting harvests for all our labors, we begin to break down psychologically. Stress and anxiety mount, we begin to lose energy and, with it, motivation and ambition, and it's all down hill from there. It's as if society has conditioned the majority to be mindless drones so that the few in the know, the ones responsible for the programming, can profit from the consequential predictability of that group - survival of the fittest, indeed.
And it's only because of this deliberately designed system of controlling the collective consciousness within any given society that we have established patterns of behavior in all human endeavors, especially areas like the stock market, where emotions seem to highly over-rule logic at most times. So, IMO, it isn't so much God, or nature, or whatever you want to call it, that causes patterns like EWP to emerge and to remain strong for centuries, but the controlled system of programming that has made it so... for the time being.
This is actually a more optimistic view, because it implies that we can change, and that we might, just MIGHT have a choice in how our lives unfold. I refuse to buy into the idea that I'm a mere variable in an equation - there's no freedom in that and hope is only an illusion. I like to think that freewill exists and that my thoughts are here because of me, not because of some complicated system of fractals playing with the chemicals in my brain.
Sorry for the length.
Thanks for your contributions to this board, POKER.
EWP is one area of T/A that I'm not particularly strong and having your analysis of S&P 500 has been very valuable to me.
Well, you have a follower here.
I gave a quick glance over your posts and, based on my initial impressions, I've concluded that you're more than competent at market analysis, likely moreso than myself, and seem to have valuable insight that may improve my own understanding. Thus, I will be using you as a resource towards accumulating massive wealth.
...that is, so long as you don't mind, lol.
Having vented all that, I'll share what I originally came here to post. I found a stock in STV that appears to be forming what professional trader Thomas Bulkowski calls a "high and tight" flag; that is, a flag that forms after a stock has risen 90 or more percent in the last 2 months.
According to Bulkowski's research, comparing the data of many hundreds of trades, using nearly all patterns and the traditional methods of trading that go with each of them, the high and tight flag is the most dependable pattern on the market, far moreso than the more common flags found within the market.
More can be read about it here - link directs you to Bulkowski's website. According to his research, having observed 253 of these pattern formations, 90% of them reached price target after breakout.
I don't understand why boards for flag patterns don't get more interest (attention) than they do here on I-hub. It's a pattern that, based on my own experience and what I've read and heard from other traders, is common and has a relatively high success rate compared to other patterns.
If we could somehow form a small community of traders who're willing to share their scan result candidates for patterns like this, we'd likely all benefit.
If this community could organize an intelligent way to cut down on the time and effort that it takes each member, individually, to come up with a reasonable list of "playable" (profitable) candidates - perhaps have one portion of members scan for stocks that have had high monthly gains and another portion for high weekly gains that have re-traced on the previous day and still more scanning one sector specifically and others scanning a different sector, etc., all looking specifically for one or two patterns - which, IMO, is the aim of a stock-market forum like I-hub,then we would all set ourselves up to be more profitable.
Instead, it seems that I-hub is mostly people who try to push others into buying high risk penny-stocks as a means to either recover some of their loses on shares that they're still holding of that stock or are trying to pump the already rising price up to even higher gains to increase their existing profits. Either that, or people who just can't let go of the fact that they made poor trading/ investing decisions in the past and do everything within their power to defend their sensitive and overly inflated egos by finding people to project their rationalizations onto.
Why can't we just be intelligent as group for once? Yes, greed is a part of our nature. Yes, self-acceptance is a common struggle for all. But why can't we just set that aside for a moment and focus on the fact that this forum presents us with a vehicle to improve one very important aspect of our lives, if only we can clear up the fog within our heads for mere moments a day: our financial well-being.
If a mere ten people could come together on this forum and each managed to keep their focus on the best ways to benefit from this medium, each keeping in mind that the main goal is to increase chances for profit for themselves, ideally, in a way that cuts down on work and utilizes all the available resources to their maximum potential, then all of those ten people would benefit, because those 10 (clear) minds will naturally design solutions more intelligent than either one of them could have individually.
Using other people as resources to inflate, or hold together, our own egos or as outlets to our greedy nature is mostly wasted efforts. People collaborating and basically agreeing to use each other as resources towards a goal, THAT's intelligence and that's how progress is made.
STV, high and tight flag may be in the workings.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=STV&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p34953251366
Gotta like how the volume is responding on this pullback. Nice steep volume on the climb up and steady decline with the dropping price.
Found the following news, today's news, on STV from Yahoo finance:
China Digital TV Holding Co., Ltd. (STV) ("China Digital TV" or the "Company"), the leading provider of conditional access ("CA") systems and comprehensive services to China's expanding digital television market, today announced that it will present at the Deutsche Bank ADR Virtual Investor Conference at 9:45am U.S. Eastern Time on June 26, 2014 .
At the conference, management will share with investors the Company's investment highlights, recent business updates, outlook, and strategy for its future development.
The Conference will be a live, interactive online event, with U.S.-based investors invited to ask questions about China Digital TV in real time and to download information from the Company's "virtual trade booth."
Thanks low.
I've been "silently" watching this board and listening to your advice over the years and have learned a lot from you - and improved my trading because of it. It's precisely this type of insight that you shared with me here that has allowed me to take great strides in fine-tuning my trading style.
Just want to let you know that I appreciate what you do and feel that it's the right opportunity to thank you for taking the time to share your knowledge and experience with the world. Thank you.
On SARA, I noticed you already had it on watch. Was it not already on strong watch? What made it a strong watch when it wasn't before?
I'm wondering because I, myself, consider a flag pattern w/ positive TA to be a strong watch stock and, had SARA been on my list, I would have already had my buy stop triggered yesterday when the price broke the 1.96 resistance.
I probably would have put my buy order at 1.99 or 2.01, or something like that...and been down today, on an "up day".
CVGW, cup w handle formation on watch...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CVGW&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p17721827789