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To all: Please read this post!
This article on the relationship between Thursday's market plunge and hedge fund short selling is a MUST READ! many of us have complained about this before but finally, it is being put into print. It is imperative that investors speak up and demand that the rules that have been eliminated, (in my mind expressly so this manipulation can occur)be put back in place. The future of the markets and potentially, our financial future
, hangs in the balance, IMO.
http://www.aim.org/aim-column/manipulation-not-error-behind-market-plunge/
To all: Please read this post!
This article on the relationship between Thursday's market plunge and hedge fund short selling is a MUST READ! many of us have complained about this before but finally, it is being put into print. It is imperative that investors speak up and demand that the rules that have been eliminated, (in my mind expressly so this manipulation can occur)be put back in place. The future of the markets and potentially, our financial future, hangs in the balance, IMO.
http://www.aim.org/aim-column/manipulation-not-error-behind-market-plunge/
"BLTA" ?
Like a fiddle indeed
I had a question about your post but I figured it out after looking back at past posts. I always appreciate your input. You're one of the posters I watch closely. Thanks Data.
Interesting question bim. It makes me think back on the Qcom lawyers that were sanctioned somehow. I don't remember the details on that but I seem to remember them not acting appropriately while being in possession of information that was not divulged at an earlier time. Perhaps someone else could shed some light on your question.
I would imagine that the rules for keeping an open line of credit have changed in recent times, including increased fees. I have no idea whether this would apply to a cash rich company like IDCC but who knows.
Jeffrey, thank you for the additional information on that.
Jim, I posted this today, hearing virtually no comment to the post. However, it seems to me that there was several things hidden in the conference call that could have serious implications, as well as Samsungs announcement concerning Spreadtrum chips. IMO, this could be part of the reason for the jump in price which, I strongly believe, is in large part, short covering related. I'm curious as to your take on it.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=36668133
"The Spreadtrum news certainly adds interest to the IDCC news and conference call today. How much of Samsung's decision to use Spreadtrum was related the IDCC settlement; if any? Will Samsung be using the Slimchip via Spreadtrum? Was that also related to and considered in the IDCC settlement? If so, will that factor into the NOK/IDCC negotiations to give IDCC a little more umphh at the settlement table? Was there a reason both of these announcements came out on the same day? It's interesting that IDCC put a certain emphasis on the potential divestiture of the Slimchip business around the same time the Samsung settlement was announced. (if I'm not wrong about that timing.)
There's been a lot of talk about the new iPhone and it's very advanced capabilities. It's already been speculated on on this thread that IFX will have the chip but is the Slimchip included? Is that one of the places IDCC will increased revenues? Is this a part of IDCC's claim of receiving upwards to $2 a phone from it's licensees?
Tea leaves."
Ronnie, as usual, you hit the nail squarely. To me, what I find most interesting is the timing of the announcement along with updated guidance that mentioned spreadtrum, IFX and the Slimchip, along with the announcement of Samsung agreeing to using Spreadtrum chips.
Besides the shorts covering, there will a lot of traders that will jump on this pony ride for a while also. The shorts may find themselves with their boot stuck in the saddle as they get dragged though the sage brush. Yeehah!
Hmmnn. Would I want to cover my shorts today at $26 or maybe wait until the price gets a little higher?....or beat the other 5M short shares to the train? Decisions, decisions!....maybe I should wait? If it WERE to go back down; how much would it be?...cut my losses and move on to a moneymaker?....Hmnn...80% of the market...Slimchip monies from IFX and Spreadtrum.....Samsung just agreed to use Spreadtrum....confident NOK WILL sign....
This could get ugly.
"short peanuts roasted on an open fire..."
The Spreadtrum news certainly adds interest to the IDCC news and conference call today. How much of Samsung's decision to use Spreadtrum was related the IDCC settlement; if any? Will Samsung be using the Slimchip via Spreadtrum? Was that also related to and considered in the IDCC settlement? If so, will that factor into the NOK/IDCC negotiations to give IDCC a little more umphh at the settlement table? Was there a reason both of these announcements came out on the same day? It's interesting that IDCC put a certain emphasis on the potential divestiture of the Slimchip business around the same time the Samsung settlement was announced. (if I'm not wrong about that timing.)
There's been a lot of talk about the new iPhone and it's very advanced capabilities. It's already been speculated on on this thread that IFX will have the chip but is the Slimchip included? Is that one of the places IDCC will increased revenues? Is this a part of IDCC's claim of receiving upwards to $2 a phone from it's licensees?
Tea leaves.
If it's any consolation, IDCC has a habit of rising before and up to the ASM. Hopefully we'll see that again. So far, IDCC's response to the current market rally has been lukewarm while there are a lot of stocks picking up some nice gains on an almost daily basis.
m3s, I would think that we did not get to see the newly released upgrade until after it had already disseminated to his paying customers by several days, despite the posted date of March 16th. I could be wrong of course.
TC's upgrade would only be one of at least four factors that have finally began pushing the price higher; the buyback announcement, TC's upgrade, the JAG rumour and today's 8K. The 8K, IMO, really gave the sense that the noose is tightening around NOK and it certainly strengthens IDCC's position. Additionally, improves the odds of a negotiated settlement. JMHO
Warren Buffets compensation; compare that to the rest out there:
http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/management/2009-03-13-buffett-salary_N.htm?csp=34
IMO, if IDCC had not announced the buyback, we would be languishing in the $20.50 to $22 range, if not lower. Within minutes of the IR, over 400,000 shares traded, with a jump in price of $.75.
It's difficult for me to discount the fact that the company is investing $100M of its money in the stock. There are other places to invest that money, especially right now when the valuation of other companies is so low. Even if you take the more cynical view that the BOD is simply doing this to boost the value of their own holdings (a view I would not blame you for having), it still means they expect the share price to eventually go up. Personally, if I didn't see this as a positive, I would see myself as having such a negative view of the company's prospects that I would have taken the last two days as my exit point. JMHO
Currently, the bid is $23.82 - ask is 24.99 according to Scottrade
The-Net, I do subscribe to and use Stockcharts. The Fibonacci tool is the icon that is just to the right of the arrow tool, at the top of the chartnotes page
IMO, yes. A look at this chart shows that IDCC hit a support area that was basically tested twice after the first touch(look at a shorter term chart to see the 3 touches). The company's announcement of the buyback, IMO, solidified that support. There is no way to guarantee that of course but it looks good to me.
Looking at the charts, we're trying to punch through resistance. The market is looking strong right now. Hopefully we'll finish this way today.
8000 shares sitting at the bid
All the major markets are at or near resistance. A pullback would not be unexpected. Hopefully, if it does pullback, they will then resume their uptrend.
Yes, I believe many have sold but there is nothing to keep them from buying back in. Personally, I have added to my position. Additionally, I have gotten where I have been reluctant to recommend IDCC to friends because of an uncertainty on my part whether it was a good buy in point. Right now, I don't have that reservation and I have contacted several letting them know that, IMO, it's a good time to at least trade IDCC for a decent short term gain.
I appreciate what you are saying vtemo1. However, if you put yourself in the shoes of those who are short the stock, you have to realize that there is not much reason to hold the short position longer, except that you don't want to create a run by buying back in too fast. If we assume that IDCC buys back at an average of $25, they will buy back 4M shares. Not only will this have the effect of putting a floor under the share price but they will be competing with the shorts for the available shares to purchase. There is of course no time limit on completing the share buyback, nor does IDCC actually have to buy the full $100M but it will surely change the selling dynamic. I expect short covering to hasten. JMHO We are getting a lot of help from the market as well, which, if that holds up, we may be back to last weeks price rather quickly, The previous low for the S&P was 741. The 20 EMA is 742. That area will be a resistance point. It would be nice if the market can carry the price above that and hold. If it does, I think IDCC will move up well.
IMO, this should spur some short covering which should add impetus to the stock price rise. There is a significant reduction in selling pressure since the announcement of the buyback came out.
Question: are there any rules about how long a company has to wait after announcing a buyback? What are any other buyback rules? TIA
No buyers anywhere to be found. Volume is dead
Perhaps this is part of the short game, to offer and sell a small amount of shares pre-market and then, after the open, sell a large block to create panic selling. "Shakin the tree".
Just a theory.
"21.00/21.10 on TDAmeritrade"
dndodd, I may be wrong but the way I read the NOK release was that at the end of 2008 NOK only had US$484M set aside for infringement.
We may have a chance to rally here. We've broken the downtrend line on price. We need to break and hold above 22.88 and then above yesterdays close, IMO.
jeffree, all I can say is that if there are still some out there underwater on margin, shame on them for not having stop loss orders in place.
Ronny,
I was one of the posters that said I was leaning on your analysis when I bought the day of and prior to the earnings release but believe me, I blame no one but myself. I know that your analysis is your best ESTIMATE based on the information you have on hand. You also explain fully how you arrived at your estimate. I have no allusions about anyone's fallibility. If you were so good that you never got an earnings estimate wrong, you wouldn't be posting on this board because there would too many people wanting to pay you big, big money for the exclusive rights to those estimates.
I personally appreciate all you bring to this board and you should not alter the way you do thing because I, or anyone else, decided to GAMBLE, based on your estimate. For me it's a lesson learned and that's all.
Here's a shorter term, 60 min chart that covers the period where IDCC peaked. IMO, the short term indicators were definitely giving a sell signal here also.
bim, don't worry about me. I have no problem being asked or challenged over any post I make. I recognize I could be wrong if I can't defend what I posted. I also don't expect everyone to accept what I post because, as I try to always add, it's only my opinion.
dmiller, absolutely, IMO.
Check out the 3yr, weekly chart. Many of the support/resistance lines I have in here go back for years, even beyond the period shown in the chart. (I do of course add to or adjust them as needed.) Notice that the 33.69 peak more or less corresponded to the peak in April, 07, that was the last high before IDCC took the plunge and that the price has not risen above since. That would represent a major resistance point and many would being looking to see if it was the point to sell. The RSI and stochastic also indicated that the stock was over sold. It was there that the momentum and strength indicators started weakening, signaling profit taking beginning to take place. It was clearly, IMO, a sell signal.
"does all of this TA, MF, or anything else really matter in the end."
Yes, the price is falling, and the other short term indicators could reverse and trendlines need adjusting. Being a five minute chart, it only shows whats going on in the very short term. Notice that the divergence only is for this one day. However, many traders, especially short term traders, will use the short term indicators along with trend lines and support resistance areas to start looking for a point to buy or sell in at when they see divergences. As the charts get longer term, the signals get more dependable but can also be a little late in determining where the actual bottom is. Still, longer term traders will generally use the longer term charts for decision making.
AMCSATX, There does seem to be accumulation going on as the price drops, which very well mean that we will get a nice rebound soon. I'm thinking that the shorts are indeed covering. Notice the 5 day, 5 min chart. There is a positive divergence of the other indicators. RSI, Accumulation/distribution, CMF all are going up as the price is falling.
There are probably a lot of margin call sell orders being placed as well. We may start seeing some reduction of sell orders tomorrow.