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I don't see any guessing needed. It is financing. They could finance the next step quickly if they were willing to give away the ranch (figure of speech), but they are trying hard under very difficult financing conditions world wide to get the best deal they can for current stock holders. That should all be obvious!
There are already rumors of banks in Europe freezing daily interbank loans again, and now rumors that Asia banks are pulling credit lines to European banks, like happened in 2008 after Lehman collapsed.
I don't think they started trying to get current financing until May 2011, when they got the last of the well test results and the existing pipeline infrastructure report from the contractors, to show to loan sources. They may have delayed the financing further during the flooding hoping for better offers, as the Japan disaster hit world markets just before they reached a point where they had all the data to show potential investors or loan officers, then add in the added war turmoil in Libya, and now the recent mess in Washington (and concerns of possible changes in oil and gas taxation laws), and I have no doubt financiers are worried about letting go of cash everywhere on the planet, unless the deal is ultra sweet, and MNLU last said they were working on cheap financing (for stockholders, no dilution financing), senior secured debt.
Gerry told me about 6 months ago they had already ordered the pipe and related stuff for well completion, so money for the rig has got be the current deal. I have no doubt, once the money is secured, deal is signed in concrete, that we will get an 8-K and PR almost immediately.
What is the waiting time for a rig, if they have not already set a date, reservation?
Game is not over until the Fat lady sings.
LOL
For now, we are in the eye of the storm, but the storm may die, or we may enter the other side. For now, it can go either way, and with OPEX this Friday, the bounce rally is likely to continue for a week. We may not know the real direction (we may go sideways here)for 3-4 weeks, or more at this point. Volatility will be real, and nasty, and news will trigger whipsaws!!!
BDI and dry bulk shippers are a special case. While Apple, and similar success stories and timing may carry the markets up from the recent lows, the BDI has a severe over supply of ships, higher fuel costs, way over valued book values as they have not marked down the ship values to market value, and the commodity demand is already high, so if commodity demand falls any, some BDI shippers will start to have refinancing problems, and a new round of Europe bank problems may squeeze the shippers that need to refinance anything. So I think, for once, Zachs may have gotten it right.
There are many other really beaten stocks that have dividends, that I think may be better buys today, if we do not go into a double dip recession.
It looks like this is a pretty safe bet down here short term, no debt, selling for less than cash in the bank per share, and we saw the scary bottom already on the bad FDA news, on a market wide sell off bottom. Little down side risk now short term it seems.
News just gets worse and worse.
Have they started buying back shares yet?
LOL
Thanks for the update.
They had a deal for several years with a European non profit trust that funded (paid them) for much of their earlier drug work, and they showed a profit 1 quarter per year based on that payment alone. Then in early 2008 they raised a bunch of cash, and bought RXII for almost nothing, then made a huge profit off selling it a bit at a time 2 years later. The test results on their pipelines have been incredible. I have high hopes of another partner deal funding one of their Phase III studies, on a shared revenue, or single drug buy out on performance plan, where most of the funding costs are paid by some one like NVS.
If you think Great depression II is on its way, do not buy this stock. If you think the risk of a recession now is overblown, and you have a high risk tolerance, this has a good risk/ reward ratio here. I first bought CYTR at about 33 cents in late 08 or early 09, and those shares went all the way to nearly $2/share. My mistake was I added shares at $1.33, and held long, never sold any, never traded, because I think there is a good chance the drugs in their pipeline will hit the jack pot. I was always afraid of sudden news of big deal coming out overnight, and it gapping way up at the open, and missing the boat.
These guys have demonstrated their skill at navigating real bad markets, and making profitable deals during them, so I am staying in and averaging down here, when I can.
Speaking of bottoming, just how deep is the Atlantic anyway?
The field of competitors is "GROWING" (LOL)
http://www.otcjournal.com/Phototron-PHOT-Feeding-the-Mars-Colony/af/archive/20110810-1/
Here is another big sign!!!
It says the train is coming. Closing ones eyes will NOT stop this train! Go MNLU!
The train is coming. Closing ones eyes will NOT stop the train!
Go AEXP!
Sooner or later:
If the coal people want to survive they need to get behind MVTG now!!!
Next friday is OPEX. It is about to get real volatile and interesting, or verrrry dull!!!
I am still waiting to see those ten cent shares I was promised were a sure thing last night. :(
So far all I see is a 10-20% rally off of last nights after hour lows.
If this follows the typical path, and we have a decent day in the markets tomorrow, it will rally up about 30-40% just on a DCB, with the help of some MMs and bargain hunters, and panic short covering.
$1.50 is an easy target bounce.
http://www.prlog.org/10943772-arena-pharmaceuticals-inc-investor-files-lawsuit-over-alleged-securities-laws-violations.html
Seems the earlier poster is right about the COB of directors of ANX being the same guy, as the COB of directors at Arena, and it seems Arena has been sued for investor fraud. Still it is strange that these saviors show up at the last minute with this bad news, after the fact, after it is too late, and never before with enough real links and details for anyone else to connect the dots. Seems a little SHORT sighted to me.
Only two of them are subscribers.
They will not buy back shares. They will need all that cash for the other two drug trials, etc. IIRC ANX-514 needs a LOT of cash for an expensive phase III next, which we had previously been led to believe might be side stepped or avoided, but IIRC FDA asked for it anyway.
ANX-530 was never going to be the top billion dollar drug winner anyway, that is ANX-514 (IIRC the number right). I think they have about $1.50/share in cash still. With a little luck though, we may get some great deals during the market wide, world wide panic here on ANX shares as weak hands panic and try to sell all at once tomorrow, or if the funds start unloading too fast, too soon this month. I have little doubt this stock will get back to at least $2/share in the next 6 months, but for now it is possible this will drop to 50 cents in a panic tomorrow before it bounces on short covering and bottom fishing. But todays failure news, is going to make many think twice about gambling on the other 2 drugs.
This was failure of simple paper work, documentation, not a failure of the drug itself! Somebody in that organization should talk a long walk on a short plank!
BS. You had no clue. You were just trying to drop the price to buy, or to cover shorts with typical scare tactics. You made no mention of the real reason this drug was denied approval, all your reasons for the warning were not what caused the sell off, the only reason this application failed was it seems, some low level paper work to prove which version of the drug was used in each trial location, not because the drug was no good, but because some one down the chain of command either did not follow the SOPs to the letter, or they assumed that no one was stupid enough to use the wrong version of the same drug (and failed to document which version they used, which also seems implausible?).
Almost sounds like FDA denial is based on a technicality, a chain of command paper work issue, but even that seems implausible, unless you realize how screwed up our hospitals are, and how many patients get the wrong drugs all the time, which on that basis, I could use US drug dosing error statistics as a good reason to doubt any drug application at the FDA as possibly having dosed the wrong people with the wrong trail drug.
Question now, is who on the inside screwed up on the little details. Heads should role on the inside for this kind of mistake, at this level. If they farmed out the work to outsiders at the test sites, they should be sued for malpractice!
Who is jack lief, what does he do, and what is the problem with him?
Definately could be worse, I just got my as* handed to me with an FDA drug approval denial on ANX, because, get this,
"the authenticity of the drug products used in the pivotal bioequivalence trial (Study 530-01) could not be verified"
How stupid can people be? Stock was up 30% from Friday low, and is now down 61% after hours. This was their second denial on the same drug. The last time it was because they changed suppliers (manufacturers), and FDA want new 12 month stability tests (but failed to mention this issue back then).
I am finally starting to believe buy and hold is dead.
OK, back to TTEG. We may get a major rally tomorrow, here and in the market, but it won't be ANX that rallies. :(
Great Caesars Ghost! #@$*!?>&^%@#
So where is this POS going next, down to 10 cents?
I can not believe the FDA response. Are the officers at ANX this incompetent? Is it time to sue them for incompetence? Why didn't the FDA mention this the first time, before they let us waste another 12 plus months of time and cash?
This is just nuts! I don't think the people they are using to tell them how to do FDA compliance (FDA procedures) know what they are doing. This is strike 2 for simply not dotting the eyes and crossing the tees! How did these clowns ever get major investor money if they are this incompetent? Maybe it is time to short this POS down .01/share? Put and end to it.
"the authenticity of the drug products used in the pivotal bioequivalence trial (Study 530-01) could not be verified"
Does not get any better than this folks!!!!
Does not get any better than this folks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Well at least they are letting us know what they are working on. Not unusual to mask names of third parties while negotiations are on going. The good news is, that the deal they are trying to cut will not require dilution or cash, and might actually get sales and income going while the TTEG engines R&D is completed.
Stop posting outright lies! They have had on average 1 very profitable quarter per year the last 3 years.
I am starting to wonder if the merger is a log jam in the loan paper work, or if it is making it harder to cut a loan deal, having the extra assets in AEXP?
I am starting to question my own sanity at being long on this one.
I am also starting to doubt prior analysts predictions that these guys will turn a profit by year end. The quarterly shows no signs of getting any where near that. But it looks to be selling for something near book value per share right now.
Market cap based on the new OS count, is only 50 million dollars, with 29 million in cash and securities (think US Treasuries) in the bank.
Earlier this year the market cap was 100 million, with few shares and less cash on hand!
Last year the peak market cap was about 150 million dollars.
So if the market does not crash (further) this is screaming buy here! Keep in mind any liquidity problems in the market the rest of this year, should not affect CYTR, as they now have about 2 years of cash on hand!
I just placed an order for more shares of CYTR.
We have the quarterly report today.
Some how I missed this news, the first half of this:
None of their PRs ever showed up on the real news wires, as news either. Real disappointment, again.
Let's hope they lined up enough new eyes watching the stock, to have serious news buyers when we finally get real major news again.
I was very tempted to add today and Friday, but no matter how low it goes this month, it could go lower before the losses turn around into profits in about 9 months. Now if it hit .25 or lower in a real panic sell off day, like 1987, this week, I would probably buy like crazy.
I don't want to jinks things here, but today's price stability in TTEG has me wondering if a 5% plus market wide rally day this week in the markets (which will happen, only question is when), might not drive us back into the 20s?
You can say that again!!!! My only green stock today was a China reverse merger with losses reported last week!
LOL
I am just waiting for the next bottom to buy more here. I really believe this group has some block busters in the pipeline.
Overseas markets are down 7-9% already. Not looking good for tomorrow, but if we get a huge gap down at the open due to crashed futures (and maybe more selling after that) it maybe be the bottom for a HUGE panic short covering rally.
LOL. Nice try, this one already bottomed on Friday, at about $1.80.
Unfortunately that report says they once owned over 5%, and now own less than 5%, so they sold some since the last report.
Maybethistime, In reply to your earlier post:
Only 2 of my stocks closed green today, on a record-book down day for the markets (top 10 all time status), where 98 out of 100 stocks closed in the red. And it was an ABAT competitor that reported another quarterly loss last week, CBAK, that closed green today (even I was surprised). Both of these stocks (and about half of my longs) failed to make new 1-3 month lows today, while higher quality stocks I also own like AA, FBC, CRBC, CYTR got slammed again, to new 2011, or 52 week lows. C and BAC got murdered down over 17% at one point today. AA was down 11% more today, already down about 33% in just 3 weeks or so. Right now, nothing is safe, but I suspect stocks like ABAT and CBAK already bottomed (as they have held up better in this sell off, maybe because the buyers of ABAT recently were falling knife buyers with stronger hands?), and they will make a hard run back up when the panic rally and panic short covering starts, which might be right after a nasty gap open down tomorrow. So I am still long here. Most of my junk penny stocks and China stocks way outperformed my blue chip and bank stocks today, telling me they already bottomed, some 1-3 weeks ago.
Any real estate bubble in China (which I do not buy), if it busted, would just drive people to buy more low cost, fuel efficient transports, hybrid-ebikes, instead of Hummers.... IMHO.
I am sticking with this one. Same for MNLU and AEXP(as you already know), but then again, as I think you know, I am more of long term view stock buyer than maybe you are.
New SEC filing says Blackrock now owns 11% of the Common shares of ANX!!! Guess who was buying the dip folks!!! BlackRock!!!!
http://secwatch.com/anx/sc%2013g/schedule-filed-to-report-acqui/2011/8/8/8961704/filing
This sucker is about to leave for lunar orbit and leave the market crash in the dust. Looks like Blackrock and a dozen institutions and MFunds have been buying and adding shares the last 2 quarters (data from Broker Fidelity). And it looks like BR added 20% more shares to reach 2.9 million
They have about $1.70 per share in cash, so low risk on the down side!!!
I may be adding here this week!
I will agree that is the only news coming from you!
Time for some MNLU comic relief before the panic starts on Monday!