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blm - do you or anyone have the answers to these questions . . . of course approximate, ballpark numbers will work:
1) How much do the rest of the infringes make up in cell phone market share?
2) What is a ball park estimate that they owe IDCC for:
2a) A current license?
2b) Past Infringement?
3) How much does the current licensees' past infringement add up to?
3a) Can you tell me who they are and how much they owe
4) How many more quarters will the current licensees' past infringement be owed?
When the current licensees' past infringement payments run out (past infringements $$$ is limited), what will fill that substantial gap in IDCC's revenue?
I find it interesting that if you take last quarter's gross revenue, and multiple that by 4 quarters IDCC has already reached WM $500 million goal, if he means Gross revenues.
If you take this quarters gross revenue of ~91 to ~$94 million, you are at ~$400 Million Gross Revenue.
Thanks Olddog. Other Longs - How do you see the numbers as laid out in the PR.
- Net Income for the quarter was: $136.5 million. Multiple that by 4 and you have $544 million a year. That is already between the $500 million and $600 million WM wants to be.
- Actual net Income for the year is: $309.0 million.
- First Quarter sales for the terminal business are estimated to be ~91 Million or about $361 Million for the year. That is Gross income/income/revenue, not Net.
So how are we going to get to $500 million in revenue when we have the biggest terminal licenses already signed? Or, is WM talking about $500 million Gross, Not Net??
Past infringement numbers won't make that up. That is a limited commodity, and can't really sustain itself, no?
A PE of 9 is very low, it seems to me.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=128984088
Gameco, that could answer the 45 Million in difference, but that $45 is the difference between Gross and Net, so the number is actually a lot higher.
That seems an awful high valuation for patents since we have so many already.
4th quarter phone sales are higher usually than 1st, too? That is part of it.
Overall, I'm scratching my head. I am super pleased with the licensing and performance of the stock, but now that I'm looking at actual numbers with fixed licensing, I'm looking for a real connect between actual facts and stated recurring $500 to $600 Million in income.
"With that strong and stable platform in place, we’re well-positioned to drive towards our goals of $500 million to $600 million in annual recurring revenue from our core terminal unit licensing business and $75 million to $100 million from our IoT business.”
- Net Income for the quarter was: $136.5 million. Multiple that by 4 and you have $544 million a year. That is already between the $500 million and $600 million WM wants to be.
- Net Income for the year is: $309.0 million.
- First Quarter sales for the terminal business are estimated to be ~91 Million or about $361 Million for the year. That is Gross income, not Net.
So how are they going to get to $500 million in revenue when they have the biggest terminal licenses already signed? Or, is WM talking about $500 million Gross, Not Net??
Past infringement numbers won't make that up. That is a limited commodity.
A PE of 9 is ridiculously low, it seems to me.
But for me the $91 Million is low for the 1st quarter and why so much lower than 4th quarter of $136.5 million. That is a $45 Million dollar difference and that difference is also between Gross and Net numbers.
Sales of phones are flattening out.
Some perspective from those who know a lot more than me would be welcome.
Thanks,
CaptainsLog
What is the best way to buy calls for IDCC?
Thanks in advance,
CaptainsLog
Do we have revenue from Foxconn? Is there a relationship between Foxconn and Sharp?
If Sharp = Foxconn as someone indicated in an early post, does that mean that because Foxconn = Apple, that we are now being paid on Apple volume that is being fulfilled by Foxconn, like how Pegatron revenue is really associated with Apple?
Set it up correctly, and it snowballs . . . and you get Fight for Freedom and others who are getting net neutrality passed despite Big business and law makers, and the FTC all NOT wanting net neutrality.
Loop, Ghors, and Others - You, and we, can change this. Here's how:
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/
I think you have the experience and knowledge and writing ability to make the case clear.
The issue is much broader than IDCC alone, and if written correctly, we can get it posted. I'd be happy to review it. I have an English Literature major and have several books published, and my main business is still publishing.
I'm sure others here and else where would be happy to help.
Regards,
Cap
"This arbitration is expected to be completed by early 2015.”
Has anyone heard anything different than early 2015. Would that mean that the arbitration has started or will likely start quite soon? How long does an arbitration like this take? As I recall from other IDCC arbitration, there are three people in the panel.
First Time Ever Record Quarterly SmartPhone Sales Tops 300 Million
The following bodes well for IDCC earnings:
The worldwide smartphone market grew 25.3% year over year in the second quarter of 2014 (2014Q2), establishing a new single quarter record of 301.3 million shipments, according to data from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. This is the first time ever quarterly smartphone shipments have surpassed the 300 million unit mark, representing a major milestone for the industry. Following a very strong first quarter, the market grew 5.2% sequentially, fueled by ongoing demand for mobile computing and an abundance of low-cost smartphones.
http://www.idc.com/prodserv/smartphone-market-share.jsp
And the Huawei (3rd largest smartphone maker) arbitration should be settle in the last quarter of this year or the first quarter of next.
Loop . . . Go on and on, please
I find the historical perspective very informative. I had no idea until now that patents in the standards bodies were somewhere between outright ownership and open source. I had no idea of the role of ETSI. Unlike, say, various operating systems (OSs) where the intent was NEVER to share operability, here you have the intent to share operability. And the patents were meant to be shared openly and fairly. But, unlike opensource, the uses are supposed to pay to use the inventions.
Enlightening. Really, really useful information.
"Here you have an entity that has taken credit for the foundation of UMTS, the standards body using ETSI to create and define the wireless platforms upon which all components and products must comply in order to provide worldwide operability and preferred usage to the carriers and end users. It was a manufacturer's dream come true. Instead of expending billions of dollars on R&D to create the most efficient mousetrap in the world, they used inventors from around the world to do the handy work."
Bases are loaded . . . not just another major league baseball game, but the world series.
Why is this now the world series and not just another baseball game? We have "infringed" and "valid" verdicts on all counts in a jury trail.
The innings are played out in months now, not years or decades.
Why didn't IDCC go to 'one-million-dollars' a share after winning "infringed" and "valid" verdicts against ZTE?
Because this is more like the 7th inning, not the 9th. And this ain't no Vegas slot machine with a million to 1 odds . . .
ZTE is the largest mobile phone manufacture in China. Yet, together with Huawei, they do not make up more than 10% of the total world-wide market share of mobile phones (featurephones and smartphones) sold. In fact, all Chinese manufacturers make up less than 15% or worldwide cell phone sales: http://mobiforge.com/news-comment/2013-handset-and-smartphone-sales-and-market-share-10-things-you-need-to-know-update?mT
And also, because of this jury win, next up, the best opposing pitchers now have their arms in ice. And their best batters are sitting on the bench, and the coaches and owners are all seriously re-factoring their strategy and tactics.
When the Huawei arbitration award is up. Another single, another run. That one isn't going to take the stock to 'one-million-dollars' either . . .
After that, NOK trail. Maybe that is 9th inning nail biting time, or maybe it is still the 8th inning.
But, still, we're in the world series with innings left, not games.
And, it is clean up time now. Each pitch, each at-bat, each hit is now more in our favor than against us.
How that plays out for your individual stock purchases and portfolios, seems more like an upward hedge, a trailing stop loss and willingness to reinvest the after a play goes against IDCC rather than for it. And if you want to stay in this stock, an acknowledgement that each win will make the stock behave more like the ZTE win than a bases loaded down by three, and the last pitch of the last inning home-run-type scenario.
So, I think, if you can strategize this out, and bide your time, you will ride IDCC to higher-highs and not lower-lows. But like any smart coach you can't count on one home run winning the game.
Bad Ump
The ITC failed as a remedy to force, at the risk of a import ban, a licensing agreement. It was disappointing that practical political concerns forced an outcome that is now proven to be unjust. But I don't think the ump had a choice in the matter. That game was rigged and in part you can't blame the government from doing so. I'm not saying it is right, but thankfully there are even playing fields, in America anyway, to still play the game.
Jury Verdict Much Better Than a Settlement
In my opinion, a jury verdict is much, much better than a settlement. While a settlement would give IDCC immediate revenue, a jury trail win has a much better, long-term consequence.
In addition to having the very dark cloud of the MOT loss finally removed, IDCC will enjoy much bluer skies from here on out, including:
- Bringing in quicker settlements from all the current infringes
- Possible positive affect on the Huawei arbitration
- Will make all the current payers feel better about themselves
- Positive affect on so many outstanding other issues that are hanging in the balance against NOK / MSFT.
- And more
While the upward price movement today is kind of lackluster, I think this win clears the way for a higher highs going forward.
While there will be setback and appeals, I am not sure anything can take away from this huge jury win, especially as it removes the MOT loss from so many years ago.
I would love to hear analysis on what others think what are the possible setbacks, what are the possible positive aspects.
Regards,
Don't Just Sit There.
Send this to your Senators and Congresspersons: http://www.rollcall.com/news/listen_to_the_factual_record_on_the_itc_not_the_broken_one_commentary-229303-1.html
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members
Check this out if you want to really do something besides watch this forum: http://www.ipwatchdog.com/2013/11/20/prominent-independent-inventors-unhappy-with-innovation-act/id=46436/
Roll up your shirt sleeves and get to work :).
Gungrey,
"IMO, it was determined that a troll didn't design or invent things related to IP. Trolls would simply purchase patents and try to collect fees for usage.
IDCC designs and invents most of their technology, applies for patents and when patents are granted, IDCC should be paid by those who use said IP. Hence, IDCC is not a troll. JMO"
Great points. Exactly. Define it just like that. IDCC actively researches and invest, and if they ever sell themselves, the entity who buys them would either be a troll, or if they actively researched and invented, then they would not be a troll.
Doesn't it just piss you off. Not just becasue of IDCC.
But because every little guy or small company that actually invents something should be able to benefit from their idea, if it is legit and they actually have the wherewithal to patent it.
The companies that built the marketing, sales funnels, manufacturing and logistics are a beautiful thing. That is a huge barrier of entry for any one trying to compete with them.
But to stifle all innovation because someone can't compete with you on one level is soo . . . . un-american to me.
Loop,
Why not write a response to that and publish it on SeekingAlpha and other media outlets.
They highjack the conversation with the use of terms like Troll.
And refer to legal fees and leave out the selling $300+ million to Intel, and research facilities, and partnership and the like as ways that satisfy DI.
Conservatives used to have a playbook for how to direct the conversation on issues.
Or, why not create snippets of information to counter the idiots.
Sticky those talking points here on the forum, and people can post them to responses to articles (pro and con) found on the net.
Why Indeed: Unencumbered vs. Encumbered Patents
When I buy IDCC, I'd want the encumbered patents put away in a trust somewhere so that I'd be free to enforce the unencumbered patents when I go to court or make my cross-licensing deals.
Just Saying.
Yes, exactly, Why, and MMI has some pretty extensive legal actions against it from Microsoft and Apple. Very interesting, and it seem to me risky.
The best MMI handset is at number 8 in the marketplace. kind of seems like Google paid a big premium for MMI and inherited a lot of legal risks and huge overhead by way of 19,000 new employees. Very, very expensive upfront buy and ongoing drag on earnings seem just unbelievable to me.
I don't see Google wanting IDCC now. After 12.5 billion they are not likely to pay anywhere near 5 more billion for IDCC. Their shareholders must already be scratching their heads at this anchor of a acquisition. Huge purchase, huge bet, huge risks to Google for what seemed like a company that hasn't made many missteps in the past. Maybe Page isn't ready for the helm. Seems like an impetuous buy, unless they were otherwise 'forced' into it because other options were no longer available.
Great find.
Even more now, I just don't get the Google deal. It could mean something positive for IDCC.
And look at this great article. MMI seems to be in patent trouble against both Apple and Microsoft; in fact that is the reason for the $2.5 billion protection MMI gets if Google doesn't go through with the deal.
http://fosspatents.blogspot.com/2011/08/25-billion-google-motorola-break-up-fee.html
The Chinese won't succeed, even if they are interested. Too many regulatory encumbrances.
I still don't get Google adding 19,000 employees, a 60% addition to its current workforce. And for hardware, mostly. It is either the stupidest thing they've ever done or a desperate move.
In my opinion, the fact that the Google deal, to me makes no sense, is the only positive I see in today's news.
19,000 employees is so out of character to any software company that enjoys the big margins in intangible assets. The only hardware Microsoft has succeeded in creating are mouses and keypads. They got out of routers, computers, everything else.
I'm sitting here baffled over this move by Google. It is the only thing I see as a positive to IDCC. It must be an act of desperation on the part of Google because IDCC is already spoken for.
I mean most successful software companies would rather whore themselves then add 60% more employees, especially in this day and age.
Agreed.
They might still be in play. But they probably won't need to announce that for quite some time, it seems to me.
I'm sure others are interested in IDCC, but to the level that a Google buy would have fetched, I don't think so. 12.5 billion is a big, serious number. Where is the compelling evidence that IDCC is worth that yet.
There is no one left that needed it as bad as Google. Samsung, after all builds everything from fridges to washer dryers to airplane engines. they might be happy to build cell phones in a commodity market.
The only way IDCC is going to get to a serious value is by proving it by stopping the importation of cell phones into the US, licensing a big lucrative agreement, winning a few big court cases . . . all of which they have yet to achieve in all the years that I've followed them.
I don't think Apple will ever let Samsung use it's operating system. They don't let others make their hardware now (they do, but not with any other name on it but Apple).
In the end, we are not talking top 5, it is the top three that will survive. It is usually that way for game consoles, cars, whatever mature technology makes it to the main stream. I think you have to think Apple will be one, Google another. Who will be third? Microsoft will never be left out of the market.
Samsung might be forced into the Android camp, even though it will result in them being a hardware commodity after a while and go the way Nokia.
Samsung maybe the best bet for IDCC, but not at $450, like Seeking Alpha was trying to argue.
You make a great point when you say, "Google can't think that they can pass along the patent strength they bought with Motorola to anyone that uses Android. Apple, Nokia, Microsoft and anyone else that has a strong patent portfolio would never make an even swap in a cross license with Android's 50% of the market."
So, short term, Samsung might have to protect itself with HTC and others to invest in IDCC.
I'd like to think that you are right about that, it would keep IDCC alive in its current acquisition mode. I'd be happy to get $200 and or some Samsung shares. Anything more seems unreasonable until IDCC actually wins some big court cases, actually prevents handset from entering the US, or signing some really big and substantive IP licensing deals.
Otherwise, it is just a pipe dream to think IDCC is worth all that more than the Nortel patents, which puts IDCC well above where it is today, but not at its potential.
IDCC needs to shut down the importation of NOK handsets for Microsoft to be interested in IDCC, maybe.
My sense is that IDCC was too expensive for Google. But at the same time IDCC hasn't proved its value, not commercially by licenses or by court wins.
So, IDCC value is not real, not yet. It's all nice that IDCC might be worth north of $450, but there is not a single license in place that would justify this price today.
So, IDCC, if bought by a Samsung is going to be worth far less than $450 unless IDCC can actually prove it's viability by court wins or licensing deals.
Would Google pay that much for IDCC without having some substantial, royalty bearing license in place. IDCC got a capped, fixed rate from Apple, which doesn't speak all that well for the real value of the IDCC patents.
My sense is that IDCC knows how much they think they are worth, but they haven't proved that to the market. It is disappointing that IDCC couldn't close Google.
Now, we are back to IDCC's other strategy, suing or signing IP licensing deals, which we all know hasn't been all that fruitful.
I really hope I am wrong. But it doesn't seem to me that there is a single major left that needs IDCC for defensive patents. That potential for capturing a competitive value for IDCC, short term, is now gone.
It would be cool to hear different. To see major news releases, some media that would keep things alive and advancing forward.
Now that Google posted its intentions, it seems to me that IDCC just lost every other compelling reason for a major to buy them.
IDCC MUST win some lawsuits or win some licensing deals . . . It was probably this lack of track record that made Google go after the bloated MM package.
I think Google shareholders would be even more disappointed to have gotten IDCC at a similar price, but with no proven track record to justify LTE or even 3G patents wins.
You might be right about Samsung needing IDCC more than any of its other suitors.
One thing Page said is that Wireless is the future. I think he is right, and that does bode really well for IDCC.
Google doesn't need IDCC any longer, it seems to me. Was anyone suing MOT for patent infringement?
Waiting for a fair market price for IDCC is like watching the grass grow, in my opinion.
I'd like to hear more compelling reasons why IDCC will either be feared by the majors or bought by the majors. Or, I'd like to see IDCC start to execute on its plan by signing licensing deals that in their own right will reveal IDCC value.
I'm just wary that relaying on IDCC to get value on its own without being bought will be like watching the grass grow again, which is really a buy and forget strategy.
I'm considering buying more at this level. The ride is great at the level I'm in now, but when I start hearing, like in the recent Seeking Alpha article about what IDCC should be valued at, it makes me even more wary. IDCC has been in the should status for 20 years. Thinking it should be worth north of $450 a share is nice, but what IDCC is valued at now is what it is valued at. IDCC has got to sign more or sue more and win more wins to be a winner.
Great article. The author has been around long enough to see the historical correlations for how software and hardware gets played out in the market.
For Google as a whole, it seems to be a very risky deal. Google just added 19,000 employees. 19,000!!!! Adding 19,000 employees to 29,000 they have currently is, well, WOW. WTF are they thinking. Hardware manufacturing is not Google's core business.
It does seem to make a Google acquisition of IDCC patents unnecessary.
Will Samsung or HTC need IDCC patents? While google will now compete directly with Samsung, HTC and other hardware in the hardware space, their partners will probably be able to be protected from patent suits. For Samsung, HTC, their new problem seems to be an operating system problem, not a patent problem. If they decide to get their own operating system, then they will have a patent problem again.
It would seem that all the major players now have patent protection from each other, leaving IDCC left to prove in court that it has the IP to force everyone to license from them as well. Back to QCOM in the 2G space, and we all know how well that strategy has played out so far.
I am disappointed to see Google's new purchase. While Google was interested in IDCC, It seemed to indicate that IDCC will finally have a true market value for its IP without having to get it through the courts.
But now it seems to say there is no reason for Apple to buy IDCC to thwart Google.
It seems to indicate that IDCC is left with no real suitors, in the wireless cold war.
Perhaps QCOMM, they have good lawyers.
What do you think an up-to-date, forward-looking 3G, 4G, 5G patent portfolio will fetch?
If the 10-year old Nortel portfolio fetched $4.5 Billion?
10 Year Old Patent Portfolio Fetches $4.5 Billion.
What do you think an up-to-date, forward-looking 4G, 5G patent portfolio will fetch?
I don't really know if Nortel's patent portfolio is up-to-date or not, but it doesn't seem to me like a bankrupt company puts any assets into research and development. They are just trying to pay off creditors.
A forward-looking, standards holding, LTE-heavy IPR portfolio in the right hands is, well, super big.
I am happy to have the boost, finally, and the prospect of trading up to GOOG, or APPL, and seeing what a reasonable value for IDCC will be.
Time seems right. The right kind of financial attention, the right arc in the product adoption cycle to have IDCC valued ahead of the curve instead of constantly behind it.
Management also seems clear-headed enough, now, not to blow this opportunity get a decent forward-looking valuation for its assets.
IDCC's Market is STILL NOT here yet.
10 years ago I told mschere that it'd be more than 10 years before IDCC would have it's market in place.
The market for wide band wireless access is still in its infant stage. Consumers love the technology. LOVE it.
But, how many people own a 3G powered data phone and use the wireless carriers' data network for an extra $30 or so a month? If you own an iPhone, yes. A Blackberry, yes. Yes, you have to as part of the contract of owning one of those phones. Some smart phones, yes. But you don't have to turn on the $30 a month data plan. Does NOK even have a major footprint in the US market for 3G phones and a data access? I don't think so. They are far, far behind here. I find their phone names a huge hinderance for knowing what they are providing or even trusting their brand. An iphone is an iphone is an iphone. Same with Blackberry. But a NOK 3432 or 5588 or 7797 is what . . . confusing.
The consumer's cost for using IDCC technology is still expensive. $30 a month or more for a data plan. I pay $60 for 5 Gigs a month for my data plan, but I use it for my computer.
Who among you is paying that $30 or $60 access fee to get always on 3G data access to their phone or to their laptop or netbook?
Not many. Right? But the number is growing. Look at the quarter-over-quarter revenue for IDCC.
Most people with their fancy phone are still using 2G features and access.
You can't blame IDCC management for a marketplace that isn't here yet. You can fault them for not explaining it to people, for not positioning themselves better and for being greedy before their time, or for just being bad communicators.
How many people own a 3G data card that attaches to their computer so that they can access the Internet away from home? Most people rely on WiFi. I wouldn't, but most people do.
Netbooks. How many own a Netbook with a 3G card and a data plan from a Wireless carrier?
The biggest thing holding back ubiquitous wireless access in the US that will lead to IDCC's eventual success are the Wireless Carriers, I think.
First off, when HP, Dell, or even Intel start to provide multi-carrier 3g-4G data cards in their laptops and netbooks, that is the day you will begin to see great potential for IDCC market.
When the FCC finally makes the wireless carriers open up their networks so computer manufactures can offer multi-carrier cards, that'll be a good day for IDCC.
When you walk into to buy a phone and the cost of accessing the Internet at decent speeds on your phone is part of the plan or $10 bucks a month, THAT is another day when you will begin to see the true potential of IDCC.
Do all your friends pony up for the data plan on their phones?
Buy what you know. If you've been in this stock as long as I have you know IDCC has the technology by now and is profiting from the technology. This last quarter was great.
The timeframe for IDCC is so expanded and slowed down, it's like anyone can see it coming from 5 years away, but in reality is their market really here now, right now?
When you start seeing the signs that I mention above, that is when you see IDCC become big, really, really big.
I just have to say this . . . About selling their 4G patents like Nortel. . . What a f*(O*UOUOU stupid idea.
Having NOK signed isn't even going to be that big a deal when they finally signed. IDCC will start to make a buck a quarter soon . . . are you really going to hold your breath for NOK to sign when 4G is coming up strong, stronger and faster than 3G.
We should all thank the iPhone for ushering in the consumer era and proving that wireless access is truly a BIG HUGE HONKING market.
Netbooks, the Kindle, Laptops . . . all of these devices will have 4G access in them at some point . . .
I've resolved to take a much longer view. I don't post here much. I read very little that is written.
I'm comforted by the view point that I shared in this post and you can bet when some of those things on the horizon start to happen, I'll be buying more IDCC.
The great thing about this stock being beat up soooo many times is that I doubt that it'll ever take off so fast that you will loose the opportunity to get in.
The only number needed to evaluate this company going forward is this one:
"recurring revenue of $69 million to $71 million for the first quarter." That is the biggest number IDCC has ever had. And, that number and more will be true until NOK signs.
IDCC has 2G, 3G, 3.5G, and 4G wrapped up. YES 4G. 5G.
What most bozos don't see is that IDCC has entered into the ULTRA exclusive club where every major handset and computer modem maker will adopt and agree to IDCC's patent technology. That is why it is SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
hard to get in to the club.
These little blips of over reaction mean nothing in the long run.
You are a bozo, truly, if you can't appreciate how the world wide revolution of ALWAYS on broadband Internet connection will affect every single life on the planet (unless you live in a cave).
This board has totally lost its usefulness, and in fact has become counter productive.
I am on an information diet. I check into this board on days like this and see 1 post in a hundred that is worth reading.
A lot of good info and friendship have been made here, and I think the InvestorsHub board ought to be left to the BOZOs, and the good people here ought to move to a private board that is still viewable to the public, but doesn't allow the bozos to post.
In fact, most boards have a bozo button. It is the BEST invention for spammers. No one sees the bozo's posts except the bozo himself. Eventually, even bozos get tired of no one responding to them and they leave.
InvestorsHub doesn't allow the bozo button to JimLur because ostensibly this board is a 'democracy'.
But the sad truth is that the InvestorsHub owners know that, while the bozos add very little to the debate, they do stir the pot, excite the emotions, and drive traffic, which in turn provides membership and advertising dollars.
Anyone thinking it is always the 'shorts' who stir the pot, might think that others also gain from the semi-c**p that is always posted here.
A time and place for everything.
QCOM is narrowband, in every phone for talking purposes. Easy as cake to understand for the investment community.
IDCC is broadband wireless. Will soon be in most every phone, and in every broadband wireless device/computer/smart phone, but not yet. Not so easy to understand. Product transisition time is much longer. Uptake into every phone or device, not instant.
IDCC doesn't have a toe hold in the market any longer, they put their foot well into the doro's crack, and are now in the posh lounge reserved for only the best of the best.
I hate the timing of it all. But what are you going to do?
The economy seems bad, but Amazon had their best year ever, online businesses are thriving, the Internet is woven into our very way of life, into our futures, into our culture, it saves lives, changes governments.
Broadband wireless will be taken up as much as narrowband is already, but adoption curve is not so urgent.
The analog equalivant of digital narrowband has been around for a century, so it makes sense that the urgency to get narrowband into everything cell made it easier to licenses.
It isn't the same for broadband or wideband.
It took something like the iPhone opportunity to get AT&T to actually build out thier broadband network.
I still don't use a broadband wireless device. I will eventually, but I don't really have a use for one. I barely use my cell phone. I'm sort of old fashion that way.
A time and place for everything.
QCOM is narrowband, in every phone for talking purposes. Easy as cake to understand for the investment community.
IDCC is broadband wireless. Will soon be in most every phone, and in every broadband device, but not yet. Not so easy to understand. Transisition time is much longer. Uptake into every phone or device, not instant.
IDCC doesn't have a toe hold in the market any longer, they put their foot through the crack in the door, and are now in the posh lounge reserved for only the best of the best.
I hate the timing of it all. But what are you going to do?
The economy seems bad, but Amazon had their best year ever, online business are thriving, the Internet is woven into our very way of life, into our futures, into our culture, it saves lives, changes governments.
Broadband wireless will be taken up in as much as narrowband is already, but it isn't there yet. With 4G maybe.
The analog equalivant of digital narrowband has been around for a century, so it makes sense that the urgency to get narrowband into everything cell made it easier to licenses. Everything cell had to have it.
It isn't the same for broadband or wideband.
It took something like the iPhone opportunity to get AT&T to actually build out thier broadband network.
I still don't use a broadband wireless device. I will eventually, but I don't really have a use for one. I barely use my cell phone. I'm sort of old fashion that way.
Investment of Century
Back in the day, a company with the kind of coiled spring that IDCC has today would be a $200 stock, without having to break a sweat.
Back then, aPE of 500 would be considered within 'normal' range as long as the earnings in 5 years or so would justify a really 'normal' PE 'today' like 30.
Those days are gone. Not to be seen again in most of our lifetimes.
Today, any kernal of doubt is reason enough to hold a company's stock price back.
While transparancy was a great thing back in the day, when a this board tried to help people by analysing the prospects wireless broadband.
To think that IDCC provides the IP kernal that brings wireless broadband to every single person to every single wireless device is awesome. IDCC's little IP switch allows the fat internet pipe to be instantly available almost anywere a cell phone goes.
The hottest new devices are from 'computer' companies like iPhone and the Curve.
Unfortunatly, optimism isn't what it used to be, but still, it isn't dead either.
At any moment, the market should undersatnd that a company with no debt, plenty of cash, 50% market share, IP in hottest products, and on, and on, and on, and on is a safe and prudent investemnt.
Irony, it seems, is not without a sense of humor, especiay for long time investors in IDCC. Just as 3G imports make it possible to nail the infringers, the market's darkest clouds since '73 or even '29 keep the stock at bay.
Transparancy now seems to serve as grist for those who profit from doubt.
Chin up boys, while you may not be vindicated with a $200, or $300 or $400 stock price, you had the winning horse all along, it's just the odds change mid race and instead of holding a 1,000 to 1 favorite, you ened up holding a 3 or 4 to 1 favorite, for now anyway.
No matter what anyone says. IDCC has the goods. IDCC will be in every single 3G wireless broadband device, and that is a powerful place to be now.
WiLan trades at $1.63 Canadian. Is that one of thsoe B Billion dollar success stories that has out preformed IDCC.
About 50% of IDCC Press Tracked by Google is Negative in the last 2 weeks or so. The percentage would have been higher. A lot higher had the quarter not ended and the SAM and NOK decisions been in the news lately.
90% of the news could be positive with a little help from IDCC's friends, and I am baffled why no one wants to DO anything about it . . .
If anyone want to let me know privately, here's my email or in pubic, there's the board:
jeff @ wirelesssmith.com or http://www.wirelesssmith.com/bbpress/
I just hate watching this kind of SH*T hit the wires:
Analyst Blog InterDigital at a High Multiple
Zacks.com - Chicago,IL,USA
We maintain our Hold rating and the same valuation target for InterDigital, Inc. (IDCC), a leading wireless technology and licensing company, ...
See all stories on this topic
Interdigital Inc Pa (IDCC) holdings reduced by Managed Account ...
Mffais.com - Long Beach,CA,USA
LONG BEACH (Mffais.com) - Managed Account Advisors Llc sold -2 (-4.44 %) of their shares in Interdigital Inc Pa (IDCC), bringing their current holdings to ...
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Interdigital Inc Pa (IDCC) completely dumped by Claymore Advisors Llc
Mffais.com - Long Beach,CA,USA
LONG BEACH (Mffais.com) - Claymore Advisors Llc completely dumped all -121 shares they owned of Interdigital Inc Pa (IDCC) as shown by filings made public ...
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Interdigital Inc Pa (IDCC) holdings reduced by Vanguard Group Inc
Mffais.com - Long Beach,CA,USA
LONG BEACH (Mffais.com) - Vanguard Group Inc sold -1328573 (-97.50 %) of their shares in Interdigital Inc Pa (IDCC), bringing their current holdings to ...
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Interdigital Inc Pa (IDCC) holdings reduced by Parallax Fund Lp
Mffais.com - Long Beach,CA,USA
LONG BEACH (Mffais.com) - Parallax Fund Lp sold -81600 (-89.47 %) of their shares in Interdigital Inc Pa (IDCC), bringing their current holdings to 9600 ...
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So good luck to all of us with that watching and waiting and waiting and watching strategy.
If someone wants to grab the ball now, I'll help it along, and I'll also finish up what I said I'd do.
NOK owns traditional media through their ad dollars.
If you are looking for fairness, either you make things fair or you put up with the way the world is currently constructed and wait . . . and wait . . .
I've suggested a way to make things fair.
Leverage New Media.
I've even made the vehicle that can even the playing field.
A powerful vehicle created from a lifetime of experience on the Net. 75% of it you can't even see.
But new media doesn't work that way. It isn't a solo gig, and I'm not looking a heroic or pyrrhic victory.
Should the interest be there, I can help.
About the 'Foreign Language'. I'm sorry for the confusion.
In the Web design world that is called 'Greeked' text. It is filler text meant to show what a page will look like when the real words are filled in.
At this point in time, the site is really meant for InvestorHub IDCC board member eyes only, but being a pubic forum, that isn't really possible.
If you look at the author's page: http://www.wirelesssmith.com/about/authors/
Five of those people are not real. The lonely sixth guy in the lower right is me with my son on my shoulders.
When the site is officially launched and promoted outside of the InvestorsHub board, all the fake pictures and filler text will be replaced with the real stuff.
I'm apologize for the confusion and for not being more clear about the process. I never intended to put the entire site together myself.
I intended to provide a platform for publishing, some content, and the promotion.
I will be putting up some articles and making some text changes over the next few days.
In the meantime, I invite you to join the editorial discussion and begin publishing. You can do that here http://www.wirelesssmith.com/bbpress/. Otherwise, this board gets filled up with off topic stuff.
This is process. Thanks for your questions and patience.
CaptainsLog
To ALL
To everyone interested in the wireless site featuring the InterDigital Case Study, thank you for your patience.
The site is up and in beta. There is plenty of work left, but the hardest stuff is completed. The optimized platform is setup and publishing can commence. Now comes the fun.
The site is called Wireless Smith.
You can find it here: http://www.wirelesssmith.com/
I had some fun in the last two days or so putting up some initial content. I didn't want to announce without showing some of the site's potential.
After your initial browsing of the site, you will certainly notice that the site is not ready-for-prime-time, and by no means is the site launched. The status is pre-launch or beta.
Plenty of content still needs to be written and 'greeked' text needs to be replaced with real words.
I started a forum for editorial coordination and calendering. If you are interested in participating, please go to http://www.wirelesssmith.com/bbpress/. All you need to do is register to gain access and start in on the conversation.
You can reach me at jeff@wirelesssmith.com
I'm really hoping someone can jump in and start coordinating the editorial.
If you just want to know when new content goes up on the site, subscribe to a notification email. The input box for that is in the footer of the site.
There is a nice big area for the IDCC Case Study that needs a lot of work.
I have been working with a writer and have a bunch of great content to put up.
- A three part series on how to speed up your laptop and keep it running fast
- Another series on how to get the most juice out of your laptop battery
- And one that is being written now about wireless security. How to stay safe and secure.
- I also put together an incomplete comparison between the iPhone 3G vs. Blackberry Curve vs. the Nokia N96.
There is an author's area for contributors. You can have a picture of yourself and a short bio or an anonymous silhouette with a short bio.
The only requirement for contributing Features like the IDCC Case Study and advice on Wireless is that it be factual, credible, and unbiased.
As for the blog posts and other contributions, the only requirement is an earnest desire to contribute value and in doing so, civility for each person's opinion.
There is more. Actually a lot more. The site is super optimized for marketing and promotion. Google has already indexed the site and I didn't even want them to.
In any case, thanks for reading and for you patience if you were wondering where that crazy CaptainsLog went to, in the immortal words of the Warriors, "I've been busy." It's a stupid joke. I'm sorry.
Let me know if you have any questions. You can reach me at jeff@wirelesssmith.com or on the Wireless Smith Forum at: http://www.wirelesssmith.com/bbpress/.
I'll be poking around here more often, now that the site is up.
Best,
CaptainsLog
From CaptainsLog
I wasn't going to read or post anything here until the site was done. Otherwise I'd be prey to my usual distractions.
I wanted to finish in a week, but its coming onto two now, and the site was finished two days ago. The structure, look and feel, a couple of articles done, and 'greeked texted' placeholders for where more articles and posts will go.
So, even when it is announced and launched, it'll be in 'beta' phase or pre-launch phase. And as more of the content gets filled and I remove the placeholders, the site becomes useful.
Here's the problem: the template has a site-wide issue making all the headers and sidebars display as they shouldn't.
If you ever read "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance," it's that one bolt, that tiny little thing that keeps the project from being announced.
I did want give an update and to check in.
JimLur - I definably don't want to clutter up this board with issues unrelated. So, I will make a place for those discussions.
I do hope, though, that I haven't already overstepped my bounds.
I was hoping to create a synergistic relationship, an extension to formalize and crystallize the tremendous information that is here, and in another medium, hopefully, help to make a different, and maybe even bigger impact.
A temporary email address that anyone can reach me at is
jeff.s@my-nursing-career.com.
To Plumear and others who indicated an interest, I do hope I don't disappoint.
Regards,
CaptainsLog
TO ALL
This is a much longer post than I ever want to write again. Hopefully, the site will speak much more articulately and more powerfully than all the words I can write about it.
I read all nine responses to the idea I forwarded a few days ago. I read them all a few times. Thank you to everyone. I've taken all the feedback and suggestions and am coming up with an initial plan to move forward.
I am 100% committed to doing what I said I'd do and more. I do need to limit myself to what I can most effectively contribute.
I'm very encouraged by all the feedback and grateful for the apologies accepted.
I spent this weekend with my family and this morning on work. In between I've been thinking and planning how to move forward. I'm going to be working on this project for the next few days and I'll come back to you with a site and some suggestions.
For now, let me say what I'm committed to doing.
1. Build and host a site cross-over site (part traditional site / part blog) about Wireless Broadband (3G and beyond). The feature story is a case study about IDCC. The feature story will be the feature story until it no longer needs to be a story. It will be the crux of the site. People are interested in 3G in a many ways. As a device to use, and an investment, as a mobility tool. Getting people to the site for many differing reasons is the best way to get them also interested about the American company that was almost put out of business by the wireless bullies. About the Wireless Ledger. As Bill mentioned, the Wireless Ledger would need some volunteers to get it current. I am not the person to coordinate it. In my experience, it is easier to launch something than to update something. And for me, it is a matter of expediency and doing what I know how best. The site will carry information, articles, and tips and tricks about anything that supports American IPR produced by IDCC. Tips and tricks for using the iPhone. The 25 Best sites for iPhone, The Best Wireless Datacards. Obviously, there are many, many more possibilities. In essence, the site advocates a standing boycott of NOK, SAM. In fact, that can be an article, "Is a Boycott of NOK, SAM, Phones Justified? Why US Courts Are Too Slow to Tell Americans About Unfair Trade Practice"
2. Optimize the site for Search Engine Optimization. Make it super easy for search engines to find it and for people to discover it.
3. Search Engine Marketing. I will market the site using a bunch of traditional methods like directory submissions, PR, Article submission, trackbacking and linking to blogs. I will make it super easy for everyone to "vote" the story into the social media of the web ( the new news and popularity of stories). Basically, get the word out about the site.
4. Seed the site with four or five articles. I am hiring someone to write a few articles about wireless. Current stuff. IDCC is too specialized for me to hiring anyone, and I am frankly not the best person to write about IDCC. I'd get my facts mixed up. If anyone wants to write articles about 3G / 4G.
5. Have a Press Release written and distribute it.
6. Ongoing site updates, promotional efforts, and some overall coordination.
In anticipation of some things that will be needed, let me detail a few roles that would be great to have filled:
The #1 need is be Editorial & Content!!!!
Editorial - Perhaps someone could coordinate an editorial board. A few people who could decide on an editorial calendar. Coordinate a once-a-month brief meeting to decide on what articles should be written. Content is King. It needs to be compiled into articles, posts, opinion pieces. Someone or some group needs to filter it and come up with an editorial schedule or a call for articles.
A spokesperson - With any kind of PR, sometimes the Press will want to talk to someone. I am not that person, unless it is about the site itself.
Graphics - Gather graphics about wireless and 3G. Graphics always make a site more professional. Royalty free, or free with attribution. Crop, size and optimize the graphics into reasonable sizes for posts.
Logo - This can come after the site is launched
Participation - At the time of launch and beyond, help build the steam. Get the word out, vote the site up in the social media. I'll make that as easy as possible to do.
Posts - Any length of Post a few sentences or longer is acceptable. The posts might be perfect for the things, loop already writes about.
Articles - How about 350 words minimum to 750 or so. Anything longer should probably be serialized.
A note about article distribution / syndication. As I mentioned before, I can distribute articles to 1,000s of places on the Internet. Editors will then pick up the pieces and syndicate them on their own sites with the agreement that they will link back to the site. I subscribe to a service that does this for me. I'm not backing away from that promise, but with this service, I can only distribute articles with my name on it. Articles not in my name will still get other kinds of major promotion, and it might solve the problem of anyone who want to submit anonymously or wants me as a co-author. Distribution and syndication is important, and there are other ways of doing this. Another possibility is that a subscription to the service can be bought and a pen name can be used for all site articles. That one way around it. In any case, it is an open issue.
One to two articles a week is sufficient to start. Articles can be 350 to 1,000 words. More than than that, the articles should be serialized.
There can be numerous posts. Loop-quality opinions. With permission, perhaps republished right from this board.
Plumear - if you could take the first editorial role editorial role of posting post or combining posts, or polishing articles and putting them live. You'll get editor access to the site, and publishing rights. You will be able to cut and paste articles using an online editor like Word. It's easy to bold, underline, put in bulleted lists all by highlighting and hitting a button. In other words. It's easy to publish.
Bill - I hoping we can get you to write or link to the new site. And with your permission, to republish or rewrite some of the articles on the Wireless Ledger. Honestly, I'm afraid if I get involved in the techonoloy of a site I don't know and the reworking and updating, I'll be committing myself to more than I can reasonable handle.
Gatticaa - If you have some time, you could get some graphics together.
I think these are two great article ideas and are on the editorial calendar:
- Inflation Fighting Stock
- Swimming Against a Down Market
Dndodd - Thank you so much for leads to other writers. Kent Greene and Vijay would be great to have as contributors regular authors, guest authors.
Lemnolis
"If it ain't "IN"-
It ain't "IN"terdigital"
As far as I'm concerned, that is a great tag line, and I love it for a site about IDCC or for a tee-shirt or sweatshirts. I think though, for wider appeal, a site that will get the word out best about the issues facing IDCC, ironically isn't a site just about IDCC.
Jimmylee - thanks for the suggestions. I love Bill's writing. It is clear, concise, and articulate. With his permission and for what is appropriate, it would be great to point to his content or update some and republish on the site.
Loop - You are just a great writer. Period I hate writing too, and I graduated from college as an English Literature major. The best writing is the least self-conscious stuff. So, maybe we can use some of your thoughts or aggregates your posts into article, with your permission. And if the mood ever strikes, you you can be featured anytime with articles and post. It would be an honor.
Vtem01 - Thanks for the encouragement. I intend to move forward by staying super focused on what I can offer. If I can offer the right mix of technology and social media, I really believe some good will come out of it, not only for shareholder.
Lando1 - Thank you for accepting my apology
Open Issues:
* Commitments to other roles needed.
* The site probably won't be optimized for small screens. Ironic, I know. I don't have any experience in this area, but I will try to make allowances for that in the future.
* Solution to mass article distribution / syndication
* Advertising - initially, I thought no way. But to be honest, earning a bit of money through ads would help to pay for buying articles, PR, article syndication and other stuff. Otherwise the site is in danger of not being able to keep up its momentum. Rather than nix the idea of ads right off the bat, I thought I'd leave it as an open issue and get feedback on it.
Thank for you patience reading this super long post. Hopefully the site speaks more clearly and forcefully than I can do in a post.
I really don't think I'll write another one like it.
Thanks,
Jeff