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Wow. Still some believers around. Still thinking SNWT management had any intention to create value for the shareholders? All I can say is "good luck". I had warned you and layed down what has happened until today about 10 months ago. Doesn't feel too good to be right, believe me.
Steve, you could hire a pennystock promoter. Play the pump & dump professionally. Posting on boards alone doesn't cut it. (o;
Howdy! How is the SNWT investment going?
Yeah. That's what I was talking about. This pump is history for now. Nice implosion, though.
"Trust me this baby is in very STRONG HANDS." (o;
My 4 cents estimation of maximum intrinsic value now (20 cents prior to 1:5 split) were based on very optimistic growth assumptions already. I hope for the longs that I am wrong, time will tell. Good luck!
Disclosure: No position in SNWT.
A best-case value of 20 cents was before the 1:5 forward split. Now, it's just 1/5th, i.e. 4 cents.
This was an OK summary, I guess.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=42284493
Looking forward to your suggestions and improvements. I am still curious, lost money with this baby (on the short side, believe it or not, haha).
Disclosure: No position in SNWT.
Are you serious? With 55 million shares outstanding, this would mean $192 million net profit. With a hypothetical very good 10% net profit margin (more than most government contracters make), revenue would have to be greater than $1.92 billion (1,920,000,000). Think again.
"VLYF could easily have earnings in excess of $3.50/share in 2011/12."
What is Daily Profit? How is the track record of its predictions / recommendations?
Hint: Don't trust any publication on penny stocks. Even less than Wallstreet analysts' ratings. Need to understand what you are doing.
Level 2 only reveals short term forces, perhaps manipulation. But it gives you no clue on the underlying fundamental forces which over months / years magically play out, despite all the foolish games out there.
Just check my fundamental valuation (which arrived at an optimistic intrinsic value of 6 cents per share last October) and my predictions. Everything was wight on, even my revenue growth estimate.
Now, tell me the track record of your estimations / predictions.
Look at my fundamental valuation some months back and look up my prediction for the stock price. So far, I am the only on on this board who was right on. No competition in sight.
Naw ... my best-case fundamental valuation arrives at a maximum of $0.98 at the moment (value soaking away by the hour as it did the last 10 years).
The only thing that prevents me from shorting this is the high percentage of shares short already.
The answer is: Maybe, after a while, when SNWT has burned the fresh equity cash it has taken in recently and will mandate another round of pumping through stock promoters (i.e. pay hundreds of thousands of your equity dollars to "motivate" the pumpers).
Fundamentally: Never ever will SNWT reach this intrinsic value. No more.
May take a while. But hey, you never know, these guys are experts at flushing cash down the drain.
Wishful thinking. Sorry.
Below $0.08 is the price where many shorts will cover. In fact, now there are quite some shares available for shorting again. Shorties, feel free ...
Some might ride this to sub-penny level. I wouldn't recommend that. Nice enough short from $0.20ish to 6.5 cents with a stock that is worth 6 cents in a very, very optimistic scenario.
Too late to look up my best-case fundamental valuation of last year.
Better luck next time!
Disclosure: No position in SNWT.
"skilled management team" ... when looking at the shareholder value destroyed in the last 10 years one is asking oneself "skilled at what"?
Hoping the dear reader will support his long position and buy more stock. (o;
On which grounds? Mid to long term, this can only be down.
Below a best-case fundamental valuation, copy from my excel sheet. In short: Very optimistic current value is $0.25 per share. Feel free to ask details if you are interested.
14.01.2010 Date
570,000.00 Total net-net assets
5,830,000.00 Total liabilities
28,500,000.00 Shares (diluted outstanding, adding 1M preferreds)
-5,260,000.00 Total current net-net worth
-0.18 /share
1,000,000.00 Normalized revenue 2009
500,000.00 Currently added 50% capacity accounts for optimistic 50% revenue growth
1,500,000.00 Total normalized revenue
20.0% Optimistic revenue growth p.a.
10.0% Best of breed ROA (BLL, 5%, Packaging Corp of America 12%)
8.0% Best of breed net profit margin (BLL 4.7%, Packg Corp 11%)
2,700,000.00 Total assets in balance sheet
270,000.00 Current optimistic net profit (based on assets)
100,000.00 Current optimistic net profit (based on revenues)
10.00 Years
1,671,768.83 Net profit after 10 years (based on more optimistic ROA)
0.06 Very optimistic net profit per share in 10 years
15.00 Fair PE in 10 years
0.88 Fair stock price in 10 years (extremely optimistic, highly efficieint company, high growth)
6.0% Discount factor
0.49 PV of optimistic price in 10 years
0.50 Reduction factor for bad management and business history
0.25 Maximum "fair" value today
Disclosure: Short 6000 shares since 13. Jan @ $0.64
Yeah ... "creative financing". Haha.
"It looks like Dutchess has alot to offer for SNWT."
Happy Holidays everyone!
Cheers,
Value
SD -- Watch this:
http://timothysykes.com/blog/2009/11/14/watch-my-watchmojo.com-interview-hourlong-video-interview/
Timothy Sykes says it much better than I ever could.
Hope you enjoy,
Value
SNWT and GOOG, both are bad investments at current prices.
Yep. But hard to imagine for people who are solely on boards to post sentiment in the direction of their position.
We humans mostly see the world as a mirror of ourselves. Very hard to look through the eyes of someone else. I too often make this mistake myself.
Cheers,
Value
SD -- I sensed the intention behind your question. Let me reply anyway: Yes, in theory, SNWT is still a decent short candidate in my eyes.
Beyond theory, your broker will lock $2.50 of your cash for each $0.15 share (margin). In order to sell a $900 short position (600 shares), you need to come up with cash of $15,000. A bit steep, don't you think?
Futhermore, I after checking with Interactive Brokers, there are currently no shares available for shorting.
BTW, I believe that getting rid of shorts was the main intention behind this split. As all the other shorties keep holding their positions tight, I seem to be one of the few who covered their short positions with a loss. So the split has hurt at least one shortie. ):
In conclusion, don't even think about shorting at these levels. Most of current short holders will cover somewhere below $0.8. Just my guess.
Remember, shorts are buying when no-one else does. (o;
Cheers,
Value
My estimations were too optimistic ...
I estimated a yearly revenue of $3 million with a net profit margin of 10%.
Management points at $1.35 million at year end with assumed record sales in Q4. Furthermore, as of Q3, SNWT is running net losses. (Anyone remembering the net profit margin of 30% the pumpers were "dreaming of"?)
Assume, they were as profitable as their best industry peers (find a list in my previous postings), i.e. a very good net profit margin of 10%.
That would give SNWT a hyothetical net profit of $155,000. With outstanding shares of 105 million (post split), this would be $0.0015 profit per share.
At a share price of $0.16, this is a P/E ratio of 108.
'Nough said.
Cheers,
Value
Most people are losing money with SNWT. The smart guys win big.
Count me with the losers here. And can you believe, I lost money on a short position? Still can't get over it. Ha!
Cheers,
Value
Current chart looks good! (o;
Cheers,
Value
Good points. However, fundamentals DO matter over the medium and longer term. Short-term, it's just a monkey house. Not that much different on Wall Street.
Don't know how and why, but the long-term average of stock prices matches intrincis value pretty well. Amazing!!
Good news don't suffice. Price has to be fundamentally good. The best company can be expensive if overpriced already. SNWT has a fair intrinsic value of less than 5 cents.
Well, that's my estimation. However, no-one on this board came up with better numbers yet.
Mobrown -- Which key numbers do you mean?
"Given the numbers it's fair value IMO."
Mobrown -- What makes you believe this is fair value?
Reality adjustment: No stocks available to short right now.
I'm sure he is. Haha.
"If Harry Masuda had anything to do with San West, he'd be proud."
JT -- Enjoy. And good luck!
JT -- No worries. Harry Masuda is on board (mastermind behind all the crappy companies that SNWT was before), an expert in deceitful stock operations, a criminal who is not allowed to act as officer on publicly traded companies anymore (search for him in SEC filings).
They should know what they are doing. Just my uneducated guess.
(o;
Cheers,
Value
Enjoy the party while it lasts (o;
Cheers,
Value
"didn't know making a fortune in the market would be this easy"
Great pumper party here!!
Enjoy but don't forget to say a little prayer for the shorties.
Cheers,
Value
Sponge -- I don't try to discourage you. Would simply like to hear your opinion on the estimations that I have made.
True, there is no published revenue of net profit figure at the moment. A proven way of estimating these is taking revenue estimations (which we have) and applying profit margins of industry peers (which we have). My estimations show an optimistic 3 cents of net profit per share.
See my earlier posting if you would like to dig deeper.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=42181747
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=42284493
As to your question, why I am still on this board even though I have exited my losing short position: I am probably one of the very few guys here who don't only try to push their own position. Hard to believe ... I know, this is penny stock land. Not that Wall Street was THAT much more honest.
Sponge -- SNWT is not a growth stock. The revenue growth is by acquisition (which has to be paid for = reduces your equity as a long investor).
Jerry Siegel calculated during the dotcom bubble that only the fastest growth stocks are worth 60 times earnings (exception are startups that don't have a running business yet, e.g. biotech startups, which is why they are so popular with stock fraudsters, see HBSY - "Human Biosystems").
60 times earnings, not a percent more. Therefore, the current 300 times earnings of SNWT (estimated, admitteldy) are way too high (meaning the stock is way overpriced)!! Even if you believe that the economic crisis is finally over (which is obviously isn't and will not be for years to come).
And the recreational vehicle business is (a) a capital intensive business (meaning growth is expensive, unlike in the softwarre industry, for example), (b) in the currently shrinking discrete consumer industry. Read the recent SEC filing to find out how management was worried about survival and shrinking revenuew.
The glory of recent acquisitions is just a window dressing measure to pump up the price. Good for you if I am wrong. Not entirely impossible, however I have deeply analyzed several hundred stocks and err in less than 15%. This case seems to be very obvious to me. Time will tell.
If you want to learn about the shareholder value earning capacity of revenue growth by acquisitions, google warren buffet and acquistions. You will be quite shocked. Nevertheless, even Wall Street analysts get easily foolfed for some time by merger hungry CEOs.
Disclosure: No position in SNWT or MSFT.
SD -- My thoughts about post split price development: Price will rise as long as enough people believe that all these flashy announcements are backed by real growth of shareholder value.
Another short term factor will be shorts that get margined out of their positions by 5x post-split margin requirements .
SNWT's "invested" a couple of hundred-thousand dollars in stock promoters who will make sure that people believe. Furthermore, they maniuplate prices, which is easy to do in a thin market. Just get two brokerage accounts and shuffle stock from one pocket to another, thich only cost you some transaction fees. The recent price action and level 2 quotes hint in this direction.
The turning point will be the next SEC filing (which SNWT will delay until after all new stock is sold and pumpers have dumped their shares). People will realize how much the price is disconnected from reality.
I may be wrong or right. Time will tell.
Disclusure: Covered my short position with a huge loss of nearly $2k.
I don't like to be in the hands of smart stock manipulators. Usually, I rarely play short positions overnight. My mistake here. Also can't allow my capital being locked up by $2.50 margin requirements per penny stock (particularly after split). Meanwhile grabbed an opportunity of allocating the freed up capital ($50k) that will more than make up for the losses incurred through SNWT and is faster and safer.
Management's plot was successful, after all. Hate to admit that but that's simply true. Nevertheless, I wouldn't play this on the long side. Don't forget you are in the hands of shrewd stock manipulators here (the likes of Harry Masuda). They will make sure that most fare dodgers will get screwed.
Anywho, good luck to all, long or short!!
Cheers,
Value