Tristar Wellness Solutions, Inc. (TWSI)

[valuemanager]

On which grounds? Mid to long term, this can only be down.

Below a best-case fundamental valuation, copy from my excel sheet. In short: Very optimistic current value is $0.25 per share. Feel free to ask details if you are interested.

14.01.2010 Date

570,000.00 Total net-net assets
5,830,000.00 Total liabilities
28,500,000.00 Shares (diluted outstanding, adding 1M preferreds)
-5,260,000.00 Total current net-net worth
-0.18 /share

1,000,000.00 Normalized revenue 2009
500,000.00 Currently added 50% capacity accounts for optimistic 50% revenue growth
1,500,000.00 Total normalized revenue

20.0% Optimistic revenue growth p.a.

10.0% Best of breed ROA (BLL, 5%, Packaging Corp of America 12%)
8.0% Best of breed net profit margin (BLL 4.7%, Packg Corp 11%)
2,700,000.00 Total assets in balance sheet
270,000.00 Current optimistic net profit (based on assets)
100,000.00 Current optimistic net profit (based on revenues)

10.00 Years
1,671,768.83 Net profit after 10 years (based on more optimistic ROA)
0.06 Very optimistic net profit per share in 10 years

15.00 Fair PE in 10 years
0.88 Fair stock price in 10 years (extremely optimistic, highly efficieint company, high growth)

6.0% Discount factor
0.49 PV of optimistic price in 10 years

0.50 Reduction factor for bad management and business history
0.25 Maximum "fair" value today

Disclosure: Short 6000 shares since 13. Jan @ $0.64