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So If I have this straight, your Gapper is a Tanker?
Sorry, Back to lurking.
chart test
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OK Trend1 let me rephrase that to read "50MA up thru 200MA which although I haven't tested it myself, is generally considered to be bullish in the TA literature"
http://www.onlinetradingconcepts.com/TechnicalAnalysis/MASimple2.html
Or perhaps you mean the assumption that the dollar and market have tended to travel in opposite directions. Again, mea culpa, I have simply observed this phenomenon, as you seemed to also..
"US DOLLAR goes down
Our products get less expensive via export
US STOCKS earnings will go up
US STOCKS will go up "
Here is a 5 year uup vs spy. Note in particular the market extremes.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SPY+Interactive#chart2:symbol=spy;range=5y;compare=uup;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Good trading to you. I appreciate your charts and efforts
cd
The dollar vs the euro seem to be changing strength daily based on whatever the current rumors out of Europe are at the moment.
If stock XYZ costs $40 today and $42 tomorrow when the dollar weakens...Is XYZ truly more valuable now or does it just take more weak dollars to buy it?
Regardless of todays' drop in the dollar, the 50MA seems inevitably headed for an upward cross thru the 200MA. Bullish for the dollar but not so for the market.
http://screencast.com/t/LIbF8spTrvC
Nice call northam43
"So for you ST traders, this maybe a good entry to the next 60 min Phase 2."
Longer term it looks like in your flow of cycles, the weekly really rules. If I understand correctly, should the weekly go phase 2, you would have us in a "bull market purgatory" waiting for the monthly to confirm the new bull status. And monthlies only announce their status at the end of the calendar month. So "confirmed" bull markets always start on the 1st of the month.
My question would be, that suppose the monthly FAILS to confirm the weekly bull status(assuming the weekly DOES go phase 2 soon), and yet, despite this confirmation failure, the weekly still is in a phase 2.
Where are we then?
Or is this scenario not possible in your system?
Trend1 said "past does not always work in the future."
Where have I heard that before? gg
Yet learning from the past is the underlying assumption in my suggestion and I guess in all back testing. You have to start somewhere, no?
Did you discover anything significant in back testing 1% thru 10% stops?
The way I have been positioned this past week my disclaimer should read "Past results are no guarantee of future losses"
Good trading to you Trend1
cd
One more thought about gathering the data. Gap ups and gap downs would have to be accounted for. The starting point for measuring the intraday movement would have to come from the previous days close, not the mornings open. I am sure you are aware of this, but I didn't quite state it correctly in my original post.
Look forward to your reply when you find the time.
Where to place a stop?
This question has stuck with me since you had such a great entry from your system on this TZA trade that should have worked in your favor. I truly admire your work.
While I lack the programming and PC skills to run this test(but I suspect that you do), please bear with me.
1)Suppose you captured 200 days of TZA intraday highs and lows so that you had 400 bits of data. Then you plotted them on a graph where the horizontal axis had 0 change at its' mid point, and plus #s to the right, and minus #s to the left. The vertical axis would be the raw # of data points that matched each #.
You should end up with a typical bell curve distribution(only in the case of a volatile stock like TZA, a squashed bell). For example: daily changes of -8 or +8 points would not be quite the data outliers for TZA as they would on a typical stock. A stock that traded in a tight range would have, on the other hand, a tall bell.
Now, since you are long this stock, you are only concerned with the amount of drop in price creating a loss((or drop from current value if you are up) that would stop you out. You are quite happy to let it go up. So let us look at only the negative values in the left hand part of the bell.
I suspect you would find for TZA that a 2 point intraday decline would have say a 50% chance of occurring, while a 4 point decline might be 20% and a 7 point decline 5% etc. So that in a graph with the amount of decline versus the %probability of it occurring, there would be a data point where the lines cross, and this would be the optimal point. You would place your stop 1 iota below this point. You will not always win(duh), but like a poker player, who calls what he thinks is probably NOT a bluff, the amount wagered, relative to the size of the pot, makes it a good bet.
The nice thing about this method is that you could arrive at a given numerical amount to place the stop below the current price(basically based on the stock's beta/volatility) and adjust it each day(as your hypothetical wonderful trade rose in value, grin).
2)Alternatively, with a lot less work, you could place your stop a hair below the IBD recommended 8% ( actually "don't lose more than 8% on a stock" if I recall correctly). So that MMs gunning for those IBDers don't rob you.
3)OR you could just place a stop at a failure point of support on the charts, like a lot of us do.(actually an exit at the first bounce after support failure would be better).
I suspect the "quants" whose servers take some of our money each day do something similar to option #1.
Good trading to you TREND1 and how is the "Happy Family"? Still 6 out of seven bears? Count me as in the family of bears despite the run of late.
cd
I'll be happy to follow the progress of the "flow". If the monthly is in Bull territory on Nov 1, that will be some call. It is fighting a lot of fundamental economic headwinds. On the other hand, I believe that if I recall correctly, election years (2012) are generally bullish.
But we are just talking cycle numbers here...not political/economic effects.
Thanks again for the beautiful matrix
cd
Thank Heaven everything is going to be OK. I just knew that if anyone could get together and cooperate to solve the worlds problems, it would be the French and the Germans.
Beautiful visualization of your 4 cycles flows. Nothing like color coding to simplify grasping a concept. Thank you for sharing your work so generously.
A lurker.
cd
I just thought that 9% (annual?) return on the S&P since 1974 even if it fell to 400 seemed a little "rosey." Don't get me wrong, I often repeat some numbers that I read without checking more closely.
I had a little fun with this. Using a compound interest calculator.
The low of 1974 on the S&P was 62.34
Investing 62.34 in 1974 at 5.15% compounded annually 37yrs yields 399.64 today.
Investing 62.34 in 1974 at 9% compounded annually 37yrs yields 1511.98 today.
Now let's factor in inflation ($20 today = $4.35 1974)
399.64 / 20 x 4.35 = 86.93
So basically if the S&P fell to 400 today. Your 62.34 investment of 1974 would grow to 86.93 in 1974 dollars today.
"Bottom line?"
Falling to 400 S&P would be BAAAD. (Grin)
Good trading to you Bangtime.
cd
>And at the same time the S&P could drop to the 400 area which still yields ~9% return since low in 1974.<
Only problem is that $20 today is $4.35 in 1974
http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/
Nice trade Trend1. Your work has been very helpful to me over the years.
Question: Since all leveraged 3X products have a natural price erosion over time, wouldn't it make sense to base your "triggers" on the price of the underlying index rather than the leveraged product?
IE: TZA has hit yesterday's low.
BUT $RUT has not.
What do you think?
cd
Gee federal, I have always enjoyed your grim reality based posts despite the bad news that they portend, so I find it odd to think that you might be a little "optimistic" with your 10600 buy point.
My read on the charts is a bounce at 1044-45 S&P and 10300 dow and then rethink(but still mostly in the bear camp).
As support for this position I would like to point out that Europe(Dax mostly) was down about 5% earlier today while dow was down so far "merely" about 3.5% and as I write Asia(Hang Seng mostly) is down another 2% or so. All markets being connected...
As a (time constrained) lurker I would nevertheless like to issue the "GOLDEN LURKER" award to both Northam43 and Trend1 for tireless devotion to getting the pulse of the market right, and in this case in particular, being "spot on". Any trader here would be doing themselves a favor to check both of their efforts out.
Best Regards
cd
What happened to the 5 week cycle low due Tues AM Nov 23??
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=56360908
Did you do a recount? If so, where does the 5 week fall now?
HRBN reports Tuesday Nov 9.
Your current thoughts? Always appreciate your take.
TIA
cd
I solved the cryptic byword puzzle in my newspaper the other day.(Where you decode the message by replacing 1 letter with a different one (based on punctuation, size of word, position of letters, and other word clues).
I forget the exact wording, but the gist of the statement was by Shirley Maclaine, and she basically said "You can't seriously take what anyone says when they are in love, drunk, or running for office."
I also enjoy the New York Times crossword puzzle, Sudoku, the Bridge column, and Lee Kramer's futures' commentary.
Not to mention the CR/Fabian diatribe.
Thank you sincerely, one and all.
cd
"Inverted hammer forming on Daily. Qs likely to drop to 46 area before turning up, and will add there. . ."
Nice call there. I see 46.05 was the low.
Please keep posting away. Some of us mostly lurkers really appreciate it.
Right or wrong...market prediction wise. That's great stuff...er prose.
Thanks Fabian, for your greatly entertaining words, and now I have to also thank Fly, for another lurkers' paradise.
Be brave and write on
cd
Wow some trade there! congrats
A surprisingly good post from the Yahoo KERX board
" Keryx's cancer drug, Perifosine, can be used in treating many types of cancer as shown below.
Dendreon Corp. (DNDN) has a single drug, Provenge, that treats only prostate cancer. Dendreon Corp. currently has a market capitalization of $3.60 Billion. http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=dndn
If Keryx were valued at $3.60 billion, then each of its 60 million shares (fully diluted) would be worth $60. Compare that to the February 11 closing value of $2.51 per share.
There is a large of amount of drug trial data that is going to be released over the next two years as various Phase 2 and 3 drug trials are concluded.
Perifosine could be a blockbuster drug of unprecedented size. The ability to cure multiple types of cancer is amazing, absolutely amazing.
________________________________________
http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00...
Sponsor: Keryx / AOI Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Phase 2 trial for Perifosine in treating:
Non Small Cell Lung Cancer
Solid Tumors
Metastatic Breast Cancer
Sarcomas
Study Start Date: May 2008
Estimated Study Completion Date: July 2010
________________________________________
http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00...
Phase 2 Trial of Perifosine for Recurrent/Progressive Malignant Gliomas
Sponsor: Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center
Study Start Date: May 2006
Estimated Study Completion Date: May 2010
Estimated Primary Completion Date: May 2010
---------------------------
http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00...
Study of Single Agent Perifosine for Recurrent Pediatric Solid Tumors
Sponsor: Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center
Study Start Date: October 2008
Estimated Study Completion Date: October 2010
Estimated Primary Completion Date: October 2010
________________________________________
http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01...
A Phase III Randomized Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Perifosine Added to the Combination of Bortezomib and Dexamethasone in Multiple Myeloma Patients
Sponsor: Keryx / AOI Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Study Start Date: Dec-09
Estimated Study Completion Date: Dec-11
Estimated Primary Completion Date: November 2011
________________________________________
http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00...
Phase II Study of Perifosine for Patients With Carcinoma of the Kidney
Sponsor: Keryx / AOI Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Study Start Date: Jul-07
Estimated Study Completion Date: Dec-09
Estimated Primary Completion Date: July 2009 (Final data collection date for primary outcome measure)
________________________________________
http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00...
Perifosine and Docetaxel in Patients With Relapsed Epithelial Ovarian Cancer
Sponsor: M.D. Anderson Cancer Center
Study Start Date: February 2007
Estimated Primary Completion Date: February 2011
________________________________________
http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00...
Perifosine in Relapsed or Refractory Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia/Small Lymphocytic Lymphoma
Sponsor: Duke University
Study Start Date: August 2009
Estimated Study Completion Date: August 2014
Estimated Primary Completion Date: August 2012
________________________________________
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18395...
Cancer Lett. 2008 Aug 8;266(2):216-26. Epub 2008 Apr 18.
Perifosine induces differentiation and cell death in prostate cancer cells.
Sentiment : Strong Buy
wrongrate
55/Female
New Jersey"
cd
Thanks for the update Fabian
KERX = W
(wink)
cd
KERX cute little biopharm mentioned before. Having another nice day today. Wishing I hadn't sold 1/3 of it.
cd
OT My grandfather was a 19 yr old marine in WWI. His transport was sunk and he spent 19 hours in the Atlantic before being rescued. I have thought about this many times before. Had he not made it, not only would I not be here, but my mother or my kids.
I also had appendicitis when I was 15. Had it been 1760s instead of 1960s ....
Life/fate...
cd
Sentiment getting a bit frothy here ??
http://www.tradersnarrative.com/index.php?tag=aaii
At least in NAAIM and DSI. Not so much in AAII. Do you value one measure more than another? Just curious for your current take.
TIA
cd
Best Wishes on the health issues Pantera
cd
Hi Fabian Please keep the sentiment updates coming.
"this market has been very fickle in meeting out earnigns rewards and punishments. Some timesg good earnings are not enough."
Now I don't feel so bad about my typing. ggg
More to the point, IBD is a real good resource and nothing I say here is meant to be a comment on their overall benefit or an indication of GFRE's prospects, but anecdotally..
Years,a decade? back, I loaded up on top rated IBD stock JDAS( maker of retail point of sale software). I believe, if I recall correctly, it was trading in the low to mid twenties. Stellar revenue growth and earnings etc.
I put a stop in at the recommended 8% below my entry.
A few days later, or was it minutes? It seemed like minutes. JDAS announced(after hours) that their revenues would be just a wee little modest amount less than previously predicted. It gapped down 12 points the next morning and the MM took me out in a flash at the low of the morning. I was unaware of this development until I logged in to see what the market was doing at 9:45 or so the next morning.
The reaction or "overreaction" to news can often be "very fickle" indeed.
I enjoy your posts greatly
cd
Thats a great economic overview cash..thanks for posting. BTW how 'bout RWC! On the move. I think it could see 5 again soon.
JMHO
cd
Yep Lots of rotation into defensive stocks. PG KRT MCD etc
"Black death" candle worked again. <eom>
UUP out those calls at the close. Might be leaving a lot on the table but couldn't ignore what I like to call the "black death" candle formed today. Rates as a long term hold for me..early Nov to Now. 1.25 to 1.62
black death
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=UUP&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p60247253996&r=9827
Have a good weekend all. Market closed Monday?
cd
Actually there may have been 2 of them today, looking at a 1 minute chart. Gonna be out for a few hours.
cd
Yesterdays was CBOE, I didn't capture the exchange today, but I suspect the same.
These trades have been posting every 6-7 hours or so. Have a look at a 60 minute chart with volume.
cd
Thanks Pantera testing low of the day now.<eom>
Thanks Fabian,
Sounds like you are just a little bit on the fence but leaning heavily northward. I'm on the fence and leaning southward. I am looking to get rid of some of my "southern exposure", if they'll do me the favor of reaching or nearing my targets.
cd
Thats how I'm playing it Joe, nervously g <eom>
SHLD mega trade right on schedule
http://www.screencast.com/t/YTJmM2QxOW
Fabian, I really appreciate your sentiment calls.
So where are we now?
http://www.screencast.com/t/YTRmNTk5
Thanks for your help.
cd