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Fluor Corp. to open Alaska office
Tuesday August 26, 8:09 am ET
Engineering and construction contractor Fluor Corp. to open office in Anchorage, Alaska
IRVING, Texas (AP) -- Engineering and construction contractor Fluor Corp. said Tuesday it is opening an office in Anchorage, Alaska, to support projects in the region.
The 50-employee office will perform engineering, procurement, construction and maintenance services for the oil and gas, mining and government sectors.
Irving, Texas-based Fluor has done engineering, procurement and construction work on pump stations, remote gate valve sites and the marine terminal of the Trans Alaska Pipeline System, which delivers oil 800 miles from Alaska's North Slope to the Port of Valdez.
Fluor Corp. to open Alaska office
Tuesday August 26, 8:09 am ET
Engineering and construction contractor Fluor Corp. to open office in Anchorage, Alaska
IRVING, Texas (AP) -- Engineering and construction contractor Fluor Corp. said Tuesday it is opening an office in Anchorage, Alaska, to support projects in the region.
The 50-employee office will perform engineering, procurement, construction and maintenance services for the oil and gas, mining and government sectors.
Irving, Texas-based Fluor has done engineering, procurement and construction work on pump stations, remote gate valve sites and the marine terminal of the Trans Alaska Pipeline System, which delivers oil 800 miles from Alaska's North Slope to the Port of Valdez.
Don Coxe: Basic Points
August 6, 2008
[ Long read ]
Basic Points – The Devils & The Deep Blue Sea
http://www.investmentpostcards.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/basic-points-august-2008.pdf
Capstone Turbine (CPST)
announces that it has received two orders totaling over $1.3 mln for its UPSource product; the systems will be delivered to customers in Arlington, Virginia and Houston, Texas
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080826/20080826005457.html?.v=1
The judge made a decision but
nobody understands it.
shifted 2 good trade profits NAKKU nov 7.5 calls...let it ride a no cost bet...
NAK + .38
Fed.1day RP + 7.00 [net Giveth +5.25B ]
The Slosh Report:
http://www.gmtfo.com/RepoReader/OMOps.aspx
W@G1 QQQQ 08/25/08 for a 08/27/08 close
48.57 frenchee
48.00 rayrohn
47.90 bob3
46.59 Farooq (frenchee has better chance but I want to show a possibility)
Food Makers Scrimp on Ingredients
In an Effort to Fatten Their Profits
By JULIE JARGON
August 23, 2008; Page A1
Major food makers are quietly altering their recipes on candy, dairy products and other top-selling lines, adding fillers and substituting cheaper ingredients to cut costs amid the commodities boom.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121945357145165595.html?mod=hpp_us_pageone
Edit...My one pounder Hershey Bar $1.25 to 1.60, can't snap off a piece anymore....it Bends if not put on ice. Sh!t
I am a Hershey expert with more than 70 years on the job.
Don Coxe: Basic Points
August 6, 2008
[ Long read ]
Basic Points – The Devils & The Deep Blue Sea
http://www.investmentpostcards.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/basic-points-august-2008.pdf
Don Coxe: Basic Points
August 6, 2008
[ Long read ]
Basic Points – The Devils & The Deep Blue Sea
http://www.investmentpostcards.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/basic-points-august-2008.pdf
Chapman: Gold, Silver, Economy + More
by Bob Chapman
International Forecaster
Sunday, 24 August 2008
US MARKETS
From Buck-Busting Ben Bernanke's mouth to God's ears (God must be getting an Excedrin Headache from all the Illuminist and neocon propaganda being wafted into His ears lately): Inflation pressures should moderate this year amid tepid economic growth. He also added that his inflation forecast remains "highly uncertain." Inflation will "moderate" all right, when we go into depression in the next two to three years. Ben is just hedging his bets with the talk about the forecast being "highly uncertain," because he knows darn well that inflation is not going "moderate" any time soon. Meanwhile, it is bound for the stratosphere and will soon enter outer space where it will run into a hologram emanating from the world line running through the event of the former Weimar Republic during its inflationary "heyday." Supposedly, this "stunningly good" news from Mr. Bernanke, who is now dumping barrels of moral hazard out of his helicopter on the US public along with bundles of Federal Reserve notes (aka "worthless paper"), together with another oil crash of $6.59 per barrel, was cause for a nearly 200 point Dow rally on Friday. The drop in oil may have contributed, but the yen was weakened against both the dollar and the euro from the day previous by one and one half yen, a huge and very unnatural drop in yen strength during a single trading day. The PPT had the Japanese bankers hit the yen, and orchestrated a hit on oil despite Russia's capture of Georgia and its resulting iron grip on European oil and gas supplies. These PPT manipulations are what boosted the markets, not talk from Mr. Bernanke, who no one believes anymore. Not a single one of his prognostications has come true. Rally mystery solved.
The Illuminists have fallen into yet another box they cannot get out of. We already told you about the box they are in because the Fed's raising of interest rates would lock up the real estate market and destroy the economy, while its lowering of rates would ignite speculation and inflation, which in turn would destroy what is left of our economy in any case. Now, they have managed to get themselves caught in an "oil trap." If they run oil down too low, the euro deposits plummet, thus draining gargantuan, system-killing amounts of liquidity from the banking system and bringing the credit-crunch to its final implosion. On the other hand, if they keep oil prices too high, the added liquidity from the new flow of petrodollars, which are converted mainly to euros thus driving the dollar down, will also drive costs of all goods into the ozone, and this added cost will eventually kill the US and world economies by cutting off all discretionary consumer spending, and by eventually cutting off some necessary consumer spending as well. They cannot raise or lower oil prices too far in either direction, putting them in a box similar to the interest rate box. The US consumer will be especially hard-hit by high oil prices, and their weakness will be transferred to the world economy, which will not decouple. Decoupling is a myth, like the moderation of inflation predicted by Helicopter Ben. Eventually, the Illuminati will have to lower oil prices to keep mortgages and other consumer loans from going into default and to keep earnings and consumer spending from dropping off a precipice, events which would administer the coup de grace to the fraudsters, which are already technically bankrupt and insolvent. That will drain huge amounts of liquidity from the system because of the euro effect, and the system, and also the dollar, will totally break down if this is allowed to continue for a period of several months, so Mr. Bernanke will have to make up for those liquidity losses with more direct injections of money and credit. As the credit-crunch continues to worsen, as Fannie and Freddie are bailed by capital injections from the US Treasury, as the Fed exhausts its general collateral by exchanging it for toxic waste, as foreigners begin to shun treasury and agency paper due to increased risk, a falling dollar and negative real rates of return, and as bonds and derivatives implode from plummeting real estate values and rising foreclosures and loan defaults, treasuries will have to be created out of thin air. These new treasuries will have to be immediately monetized at an ever-increasing rate, which is highly inflationary, and this will send gold and silver into inter-dimensional space.
Are the system and its fraudsters too big to fail, or are they too big to bail? US investors and consumers are starting to think more and more that the latter is the case. They are sick to death of being lied to, and many, including Jimmy Rogers, think Bernanke should resign for sticking it to the US public with "cutesy" financial moves and bailouts that are dripping with moral hazard. They are sick of paying for OPF - other people's fraud. How will the abuses ever end if no one is forced to suffer the losses which their greed, deceit, stupidity and fraud have engendered? In fact, is that not what Bernanke promised us last year, that he would not allow this moral hazard to occur? The truth is, that is what his Illuminist masters told him to say until the losses mounted up and the fraudsters needed to be bailed out. That way they could shut the public up until the debacles caused panic and fear over a possible systemic breakdown, at which point Bernanke would swoop in like a savior and save the system, with the public allowing anything that would keep them from losing their precious "spendaholic" world. The Fed can make all the new rules they want, but if there is no penalty for not following those rules, what the freak good are they? How will US consumers be able to pay for all this fraudster fallout when one out of three are unemployed and they are faced with double digit interest rates and Weimar-like inflation? It's not going to happen! There will be revolution and social unrest. The Illuminati will be run down and shot like rabid dogs, and we say good riddance to these reprobates and sociopaths when the public finally has their fill of this crap and the trials and recriminations start. We say let the whole system come down, and let's start from scratch. No pain, no gain. Anything is better than what we have now, which is a military-industrial-financial complex run by satanic trillionaires who denude citizens of their earnings with rampant fraud and corruption, who slaughter our children, and what should be our foreign friends, with continual wars for profit and who are trying to make us all into serfs in the ultimate feudal system to be run by the would-be lords of the universe, but not until they wipe out billions of useless eaters with pogroms, plagues, wars, famine and eventually nukes, biochemical warfare and other weapons of mass destruction. Is this what our brave men and women are fighting for? Perish the thought! These miscreants have destroyed themselves and their precious financial and military systems. Let's keep it that way! And let's start a new system that delivers the freedom and prosperity to all, and not just to the privileged few, which is what our Founding Fathers intended when they wrote our Constitution and Bill of Rights!!! Make sure you vote out all incumbents in November, except for Ron Paul.
The GAO says 2/3’s of American companies did not pay corporate taxes from 1998 to 2005. Individual taxpayers get to make up the difference. In the last five years corporate earnings doubled. During the first six years of the decade, corporate tax collections were just 2.2% of GDP, far below the 3.4% average for industrialized countries.
The MBA mortgage applications index fell 1.5% last week to the lowest level since December 2000. The purchase index fell 0.4% and the refi index fell 3.7%. The 30-year fixed rate loan was 6.47%, down 11 bps. More than 77,000 properties, or 28%, were repossessed by lenders nationwide in July, up from 16% yoy. Nine of 33 major markets saw inventory rise significantly. Sacramento foreclosed inventory was 31,219 units, or more than twice to 14,913 units on the MSL listings. San Francisco saw a 190% increase, while Phoenix rose 130%.
William Tanona, an analyst for Goldman Sachs says Lehman will post a $2.5 billion loss for the third quarter. He also believes that recovery for the troubled industry is still a few quarters away, and that many Wall Street banks will focus on purging their books of risky mortgage securities. He lowered third quarter and full year estimates for Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley.
The NAR, National Association of Realtors Commercial Leading Indicator for brokerage activity slowed a 0.9% to 117.9 in the second quarter from 119.1 in the first quarter and was 2.1% lower yoy.
The New York AG is intensifying his probe of ARS fraud at Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank.
Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed it – calls for $149.00 oil.
The new housing program faces growing doubts among real estate experts and economists, who point out that government will now be competing with lenders and private homeowners who have been struggling to sell in a depressed market
California communities with the most foreclosures and therefore likely to be first in line for federal aid, already have a relatively ample supply of affordable housing.
Sacramento County has a high need for affordable housing.
The federal government has been using its system of border check-points to greatly expand a database on travelers entering the country by collecting information on US citizens crossing by land, compiling data that will be stored for 15 years and maybe used in criminal and intelligence investigations.
The DHS in a federal register notice said they were guarding against terrorists. What this data collection is all about is spying on citizens and accumulating data bases on everyone. This will be accomplished by June when all travelers crossing land borders will need to present a machine readable document, such as a passport or a driver’s license with an RFID, a radio frequency identification chip. This system was authorized in the Enhanced Border Security and Visa Reform Act of 2002, the Aviation & Transportation Security Act of 2001, and the Intelligence Reform & Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004.
These laws do not authorize such a database and only authorizes the government to issue travel documents and check immigration status. This database is worse than a watch list. This is a massive fishing expedition in which government wants to know everything everyone does, especially American citizens.
Officials will record name, birth date, gender, date and time of crossing, and a photo, where available, for US travelers returning to the country by land, sea or air. Data on foreigners is held for 75 years.
Mainline analysts now believe Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will now need $100 billion to survive. That means a taxpayer funded bailout and nationalization of the GSEs. We see losses at over $2 trillion.
Once the auction-rate securities settlements are made securities firms will probably lose 200,000 investors. It is hard to see them keeping these clients that they treated with such distain. This is very typical of Wall Street today. We hope the investors get smart and go into gold and silver related assets and Swiss franc government bonds.
http://news.goldseek.com/InternationalForecaster/1219616042.php
Chapman: Gold, Silver, Economy + More
by Bob Chapman
International Forecaster
Sunday, 24 August 2008
US MARKETS
From Buck-Busting Ben Bernanke's mouth to God's ears (God must be getting an Excedrin Headache from all the Illuminist and neocon propaganda being wafted into His ears lately): Inflation pressures should moderate this year amid tepid economic growth. He also added that his inflation forecast remains "highly uncertain." Inflation will "moderate" all right, when we go into depression in the next two to three years. Ben is just hedging his bets with the talk about the forecast being "highly uncertain," because he knows darn well that inflation is not going "moderate" any time soon. Meanwhile, it is bound for the stratosphere and will soon enter outer space where it will run into a hologram emanating from the world line running through the event of the former Weimar Republic during its inflationary "heyday." Supposedly, this "stunningly good" news from Mr. Bernanke, who is now dumping barrels of moral hazard out of his helicopter on the US public along with bundles of Federal Reserve notes (aka "worthless paper"), together with another oil crash of $6.59 per barrel, was cause for a nearly 200 point Dow rally on Friday. The drop in oil may have contributed, but the yen was weakened against both the dollar and the euro from the day previous by one and one half yen, a huge and very unnatural drop in yen strength during a single trading day. The PPT had the Japanese bankers hit the yen, and orchestrated a hit on oil despite Russia's capture of Georgia and its resulting iron grip on European oil and gas supplies. These PPT manipulations are what boosted the markets, not talk from Mr. Bernanke, who no one believes anymore. Not a single one of his prognostications has come true. Rally mystery solved.
The Illuminists have fallen into yet another box they cannot get out of. We already told you about the box they are in because the Fed's raising of interest rates would lock up the real estate market and destroy the economy, while its lowering of rates would ignite speculation and inflation, which in turn would destroy what is left of our economy in any case. Now, they have managed to get themselves caught in an "oil trap." If they run oil down too low, the euro deposits plummet, thus draining gargantuan, system-killing amounts of liquidity from the banking system and bringing the credit-crunch to its final implosion. On the other hand, if they keep oil prices too high, the added liquidity from the new flow of petrodollars, which are converted mainly to euros thus driving the dollar down, will also drive costs of all goods into the ozone, and this added cost will eventually kill the US and world economies by cutting off all discretionary consumer spending, and by eventually cutting off some necessary consumer spending as well. They cannot raise or lower oil prices too far in either direction, putting them in a box similar to the interest rate box. The US consumer will be especially hard-hit by high oil prices, and their weakness will be transferred to the world economy, which will not decouple. Decoupling is a myth, like the moderation of inflation predicted by Helicopter Ben. Eventually, the Illuminati will have to lower oil prices to keep mortgages and other consumer loans from going into default and to keep earnings and consumer spending from dropping off a precipice, events which would administer the coup de grace to the fraudsters, which are already technically bankrupt and insolvent. That will drain huge amounts of liquidity from the system because of the euro effect, and the system, and also the dollar, will totally break down if this is allowed to continue for a period of several months, so Mr. Bernanke will have to make up for those liquidity losses with more direct injections of money and credit. As the credit-crunch continues to worsen, as Fannie and Freddie are bailed by capital injections from the US Treasury, as the Fed exhausts its general collateral by exchanging it for toxic waste, as foreigners begin to shun treasury and agency paper due to increased risk, a falling dollar and negative real rates of return, and as bonds and derivatives implode from plummeting real estate values and rising foreclosures and loan defaults, treasuries will have to be created out of thin air. These new treasuries will have to be immediately monetized at an ever-increasing rate, which is highly inflationary, and this will send gold and silver into inter-dimensional space.
Are the system and its fraudsters too big to fail, or are they too big to bail? US investors and consumers are starting to think more and more that the latter is the case. They are sick to death of being lied to, and many, including Jimmy Rogers, think Bernanke should resign for sticking it to the US public with "cutesy" financial moves and bailouts that are dripping with moral hazard. They are sick of paying for OPF - other people's fraud. How will the abuses ever end if no one is forced to suffer the losses which their greed, deceit, stupidity and fraud have engendered? In fact, is that not what Bernanke promised us last year, that he would not allow this moral hazard to occur? The truth is, that is what his Illuminist masters told him to say until the losses mounted up and the fraudsters needed to be bailed out. That way they could shut the public up until the debacles caused panic and fear over a possible systemic breakdown, at which point Bernanke would swoop in like a savior and save the system, with the public allowing anything that would keep them from losing their precious "spendaholic" world. The Fed can make all the new rules they want, but if there is no penalty for not following those rules, what the freak good are they? How will US consumers be able to pay for all this fraudster fallout when one out of three are unemployed and they are faced with double digit interest rates and Weimar-like inflation? It's not going to happen! There will be revolution and social unrest. The Illuminati will be run down and shot like rabid dogs, and we say good riddance to these reprobates and sociopaths when the public finally has their fill of this crap and the trials and recriminations start. We say let the whole system come down, and let's start from scratch. No pain, no gain. Anything is better than what we have now, which is a military-industrial-financial complex run by satanic trillionaires who denude citizens of their earnings with rampant fraud and corruption, who slaughter our children, and what should be our foreign friends, with continual wars for profit and who are trying to make us all into serfs in the ultimate feudal system to be run by the would-be lords of the universe, but not until they wipe out billions of useless eaters with pogroms, plagues, wars, famine and eventually nukes, biochemical warfare and other weapons of mass destruction. Is this what our brave men and women are fighting for? Perish the thought! These miscreants have destroyed themselves and their precious financial and military systems. Let's keep it that way! And let's start a new system that delivers the freedom and prosperity to all, and not just to the privileged few, which is what our Founding Fathers intended when they wrote our Constitution and Bill of Rights!!! Make sure you vote out all incumbents in November, except for Ron Paul.
The GAO says 2/3’s of American companies did not pay corporate taxes from 1998 to 2005. Individual taxpayers get to make up the difference. In the last five years corporate earnings doubled. During the first six years of the decade, corporate tax collections were just 2.2% of GDP, far below the 3.4% average for industrialized countries.
The MBA mortgage applications index fell 1.5% last week to the lowest level since December 2000. The purchase index fell 0.4% and the refi index fell 3.7%. The 30-year fixed rate loan was 6.47%, down 11 bps. More than 77,000 properties, or 28%, were repossessed by lenders nationwide in July, up from 16% yoy. Nine of 33 major markets saw inventory rise significantly. Sacramento foreclosed inventory was 31,219 units, or more than twice to 14,913 units on the MSL listings. San Francisco saw a 190% increase, while Phoenix rose 130%.
William Tanona, an analyst for Goldman Sachs says Lehman will post a $2.5 billion loss for the third quarter. He also believes that recovery for the troubled industry is still a few quarters away, and that many Wall Street banks will focus on purging their books of risky mortgage securities. He lowered third quarter and full year estimates for Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley.
The NAR, National Association of Realtors Commercial Leading Indicator for brokerage activity slowed a 0.9% to 117.9 in the second quarter from 119.1 in the first quarter and was 2.1% lower yoy.
The New York AG is intensifying his probe of ARS fraud at Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank.
Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed it – calls for $149.00 oil.
The new housing program faces growing doubts among real estate experts and economists, who point out that government will now be competing with lenders and private homeowners who have been struggling to sell in a depressed market
California communities with the most foreclosures and therefore likely to be first in line for federal aid, already have a relatively ample supply of affordable housing.
Sacramento County has a high need for affordable housing.
The federal government has been using its system of border check-points to greatly expand a database on travelers entering the country by collecting information on US citizens crossing by land, compiling data that will be stored for 15 years and maybe used in criminal and intelligence investigations.
The DHS in a federal register notice said they were guarding against terrorists. What this data collection is all about is spying on citizens and accumulating data bases on everyone. This will be accomplished by June when all travelers crossing land borders will need to present a machine readable document, such as a passport or a driver’s license with an RFID, a radio frequency identification chip. This system was authorized in the Enhanced Border Security and Visa Reform Act of 2002, the Aviation & Transportation Security Act of 2001, and the Intelligence Reform & Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004.
These laws do not authorize such a database and only authorizes the government to issue travel documents and check immigration status. This database is worse than a watch list. This is a massive fishing expedition in which government wants to know everything everyone does, especially American citizens.
Officials will record name, birth date, gender, date and time of crossing, and a photo, where available, for US travelers returning to the country by land, sea or air. Data on foreigners is held for 75 years.
Mainline analysts now believe Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will now need $100 billion to survive. That means a taxpayer funded bailout and nationalization of the GSEs. We see losses at over $2 trillion.
Once the auction-rate securities settlements are made securities firms will probably lose 200,000 investors. It is hard to see them keeping these clients that they treated with such distain. This is very typical of Wall Street today. We hope the investors get smart and go into gold and silver related assets and Swiss franc government bonds.
http://news.goldseek.com/InternationalForecaster/1219616042.php
Fannie and Freddie Can't Sell Their Debt
A few days ago, I was talking with a friend who until very recenty had been in charge of capital markets at a privately-held "hard money" lender. Hard money is a rough and tumble world of last resort, where borrowers who are out of both time and luck go for quick cash, priced at prime plus ten and three points on closing.
My friend left the firm because he refused to participate in a quiet, back-room shell game designed to conceal the true health of the firm's loan book from their accountants and lenders. The scheme basically involved trading bad loans back and forth with competitors, then disguising the trades as repayments and refinancings. All they did was replace one piece of illiquid, rotting swamp sludge with another, but it made the companies and their portfolios look much healthier than they actually were.
While I found what he told me to be pretty disturbing, I dismissed the practice as a product of that particular environment, excacerbated by the fact that this firm was privately held. After all, Sarbanes-Oxley was written specifically to increase disclosure at public companies, and didn't Andy Fastow and Jeff Skilling go to prison for falsifying financial records? And then Phil Bennett at REFCO after them?
So imagine my alarm when I read of similar financial contortions going on over at Fannie Mae, (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE). Foreign investors, particularly Asian central banks that had been huge buyers of Fannie and Freddie debt have pulled back in recent weeks, and that left Fannie and Freddie with no resort but to play "let's make believe" with their debt sales last week.
In its online edition, The Economist wrote in "Fannie, Freddie and Lehman ensure August is anything but quiet" that a five-year issue by Freddie Mac on August 19th sold for 1.13 percentage points over treasury bonds, the highest spread for at least a decade, and almost double what Freddie had to pay just a few months earlier. But extraordinarily high yields are only part what Fannie and Freddie had to offer.
According to The Economist, the banks that manage the agencies' debt issues are pulling out all the stops to ensure their success, even to the point of artificially boosting demand through deals known as "switches". In such an arrangement, an investor agrees to buy into a new issue in return for being able to sell back to the banks an equal amount of an old one, thus ensuring its net exposure does not rise.
If enough of these deals are struck, large amounts of debt can be shifted even when demand is thin. A recent $3.5 billion issue by Fannie was helped along by "very significant" amounts of switching, said one banker involved in it. With $223 billion, or one-seventh, of the agencies' debt falling due before the end of September, those peddling it will have their work cut out for them, especially if the Asian investors continue to be put off by unkind headlines.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now clearly out of time and luck, and it looks like we taxpayers will soon become the hard money lenders of last resort. Bernanke signaled just such an outcome last week in Jackson Hole, and both common and preferred equity holders will soon be completely wiped out. Unfortunately, we have no choice. As The Economist wrote: "loss of faith in the firms' equity is one thing, ebbing confidence in their vast pile of debt is altogether scarier."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/92348-fannie-and-freddie-can-t-sell-their-debt?source=d_email
Butler: The Smoking Gun ~Cots
Theodore Butler
22 August, 2008
For years, the data contained in the weekly Commitment of Traders Report (COT), issued by the CFTC, have indicated that several large COMEX traders have manipulated the price of silver and gold. For an equal number of years, the CFTC has reluctantly responded to public pressure over this issue with blanket denials of any wrongdoing. Many analysts have agreed with the CFTC’s position, conjuring up various ways to explain why a massive short position held by a handful of traders is not manipulative.
The recent widespread shortage of silver for retail purchase coupled with a price collapse appears to have shaken these analysts’ confidence that the COMEX silver market is operating ‘fair and square.’ Well it should, since there is no rational explanation for a significant price decline going hand in hand with product shortages other than collusive manipulation.
For any remaining doubters that COMEX silver and gold pricing is manipulated, the following CFTC data should be considered. This data is taken from a monthly report issued by the CFTC, called the Bank Participation Report. Here’s the link for the report -
http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/bankparticipation/index.htm The relevant data is found in the July and August futures sections. I will condense it.
These facts speak for themselves. Here are the facts. As of July 1, 2008, two U.S. banks were short 6,199 contracts of COMEX silver (30,995,000 ounces). As of August 5, 2008, two U.S. banks were short 33,805 contracts of COMEX silver (169,025,000 ounces), an increase of more than five-fold. This is the largest such position by U.S. banks I can find in the data, ever. Between July 14 and August 15th, the price of COMEX silver declined from a peak high of $19.55 (basis September) to a low of $12.22 for a decline of 38%.
For gold, 3 U.S. banks held a short position of 7,787 contracts (778,700 ounces) in July, and 3 U.S. banks held a short position of 86,398 contracts (8,639,800 ounces) in August, an eleven-fold increase and coinciding with a gold price decline of more than $150 per ounce. As was the case with silver, this is the largest short position ever by US banks in the data listed on the CFTC’s site. This was put on as one massive position just before the market collapsed in price.
This data suggests other questions should be answered by banking regulators, the CFTC, or by those analysts who still doubt this market is rigged. Is there a connection between 2 U.S. banks selling an additional 27,606 silver futures contracts (138 million ounces) in a month, followed shortly thereafter by a severe decline in the price of silver? That’s equal to 20% of annual world mine production or the entire COMEX warehouse stockpile, the second largest inventory in the world. How could the concentrated sale of such quantities in such a short time not influence the price?
Is there a connection between 3 U.S. banks selling an additional 78,611 gold futures contracts (7,861,100 ounces) in a month, followed shortly by a severe price decline in gold? That’s equal to 10% of annual world production and amounts to more than $7 billion worth of gold futures being sold by 3 U.S. banks in a month. How can this extraordinary concentrated trading size not be manipulative?
Because prices fell so sharply after the short sales were taken (with the appropriate dirty tricks as I have previously explained) holders of known physical silver in the world suffered a decline in value of more than $2.5 billion and long COMEX silver futures holders suffered a similar $2.5 billion decline in the value of their contracts. In gold, because the dollar value held is much greater than silver, investor losses were much greater, on the order of hundreds of billions of dollars on their physical holdings. Declines in the value of mining shares adds many billions more. Was this loss of value caused by the concentrated short selling of 2 or 3 U.S. banks?
What real legitimate business do 2 or 3 U.S. banks suddenly have for selling short such quantities of speculative instruments over a brief time period? Do we want banks to be engaging in this type of activity? If the manipulation was not successful, would U.S. taxpayers be called on to bail out yet another bank speculation gone bad?
Do the traders who lost money in the recent price collapse of silver have a reason to believe that their money is now in the pockets of these two or three U.S. banks? If so, do they have recourse?
The data in the Bank Participation report is clear and compelling. that it is hard to conclude anything but manipulation. It is beyond credulity to conclude other than two or three banks caused one of the most severe price collapses in precious metals history. The CFTC has a lot to answer for as the regulatory agency responsible for preventing this type of blatant manipulation.
http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1219417468.php
Butler: The Smoking Gun ~Cots
Theodore Butler
22 August, 2008
For years, the data contained in the weekly Commitment of Traders Report (COT), issued by the CFTC, have indicated that several large COMEX traders have manipulated the price of silver and gold. For an equal number of years, the CFTC has reluctantly responded to public pressure over this issue with blanket denials of any wrongdoing. Many analysts have agreed with the CFTC’s position, conjuring up various ways to explain why a massive short position held by a handful of traders is not manipulative.
The recent widespread shortage of silver for retail purchase coupled with a price collapse appears to have shaken these analysts’ confidence that the COMEX silver market is operating ‘fair and square.’ Well it should, since there is no rational explanation for a significant price decline going hand in hand with product shortages other than collusive manipulation.
For any remaining doubters that COMEX silver and gold pricing is manipulated, the following CFTC data should be considered. This data is taken from a monthly report issued by the CFTC, called the Bank Participation Report. Here’s the link for the report -
http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/bankparticipation/index.htm The relevant data is found in the July and August futures sections. I will condense it.
These facts speak for themselves. Here are the facts. As of July 1, 2008, two U.S. banks were short 6,199 contracts of COMEX silver (30,995,000 ounces). As of August 5, 2008, two U.S. banks were short 33,805 contracts of COMEX silver (169,025,000 ounces), an increase of more than five-fold. This is the largest such position by U.S. banks I can find in the data, ever. Between July 14 and August 15th, the price of COMEX silver declined from a peak high of $19.55 (basis September) to a low of $12.22 for a decline of 38%.
For gold, 3 U.S. banks held a short position of 7,787 contracts (778,700 ounces) in July, and 3 U.S. banks held a short position of 86,398 contracts (8,639,800 ounces) in August, an eleven-fold increase and coinciding with a gold price decline of more than $150 per ounce. As was the case with silver, this is the largest short position ever by US banks in the data listed on the CFTC’s site. This was put on as one massive position just before the market collapsed in price.
This data suggests other questions should be answered by banking regulators, the CFTC, or by those analysts who still doubt this market is rigged. Is there a connection between 2 U.S. banks selling an additional 27,606 silver futures contracts (138 million ounces) in a month, followed shortly thereafter by a severe decline in the price of silver? That’s equal to 20% of annual world mine production or the entire COMEX warehouse stockpile, the second largest inventory in the world. How could the concentrated sale of such quantities in such a short time not influence the price?
Is there a connection between 3 U.S. banks selling an additional 78,611 gold futures contracts (7,861,100 ounces) in a month, followed shortly by a severe price decline in gold? That’s equal to 10% of annual world production and amounts to more than $7 billion worth of gold futures being sold by 3 U.S. banks in a month. How can this extraordinary concentrated trading size not be manipulative?
Because prices fell so sharply after the short sales were taken (with the appropriate dirty tricks as I have previously explained) holders of known physical silver in the world suffered a decline in value of more than $2.5 billion and long COMEX silver futures holders suffered a similar $2.5 billion decline in the value of their contracts. In gold, because the dollar value held is much greater than silver, investor losses were much greater, on the order of hundreds of billions of dollars on their physical holdings. Declines in the value of mining shares adds many billions more. Was this loss of value caused by the concentrated short selling of 2 or 3 U.S. banks?
What real legitimate business do 2 or 3 U.S. banks suddenly have for selling short such quantities of speculative instruments over a brief time period? Do we want banks to be engaging in this type of activity? If the manipulation was not successful, would U.S. taxpayers be called on to bail out yet another bank speculation gone bad?
Do the traders who lost money in the recent price collapse of silver have a reason to believe that their money is now in the pockets of these two or three U.S. banks? If so, do they have recourse?
The data in the Bank Participation report is clear and compelling. that it is hard to conclude anything but manipulation. It is beyond credulity to conclude other than two or three banks caused one of the most severe price collapses in precious metals history. The CFTC has a lot to answer for as the regulatory agency responsible for preventing this type of blatant manipulation.
http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1219417468.php
•• Earnings Calendar for the Week Ahead ••
B = Before-Market Hours
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REPORTS TO BE ANNOUNCED FOR WEEK OF AUG 25-29
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Courtesy...Bullwinkle
Mauldin: It's More Than Freddie and Fannie
by John Mauldin
August 22, 2008
Yet another crisis confronts us, as we will have to deal with the aftermath of a rather large number of bank failures over the next year, which is likely to overwhelm the ability of the FDIC to insure your bank deposits. Today we look at the banking system, the FDIC, and Freddie and Fannie. It's not pretty, but as realists we must know what we are facing.
But first, I just want to say I am glad that Richard Russell is doing fine. For those who do not know, he suffered a mild stroke last Friday. I talked to him yesterday, and he was a little tired but doing better. He has decided to cut back his writing schedule and relax a bit more, which is a good thing. At 84, he has written a daily (and sometimes lengthy) commentary and has been writing the monthly Dow Theory Letter since 1958. He is the dean of newsletter writers. He has forgotten more than most of us will ever know about the markets.
His doctor told him he needed to seek some balance in his life and cut down on the stress. I know how much it takes to write my one letter each week; I can't imagine what it takes to write five. Basically, his plan is now to post his stats and only write about the markets when something important is happening, about every two weeks. I hope he sticks with that plan, as I want to be sharing dinner and drinks with him for many years to come. I am sure you join me in wishing him and his lovely wife Faye all the best and a healthy and quick recovery.
The US Banking System Is in Trouble
A few weeks ago when I was in Maine, I met Chris Whalen. Chris is the managing director of a service called Institutional Risk Analytics, whose primary business is analyzing the health of banks and financial institutions. If you are one of their clients, you can go to their web site and drill quite deep into all aspects of every bank in America. And what they have done is come up with various metrics which compare how well-capitalized a bank is, how much risk it is taking, and what kind of losses (or profits) it can expect. It is a one of a kind firm, and the data gives Chris a very special perspective on the US banking system.
And what he sees is not pretty. There is a crisis brewing. He expects 100 banks to fail between now and July of 2009. Most of them will be small, but there will be a few large banks. The total assets of those banks he estimates to be $850 billion (not a typo!). Those are the assets the FDIC is going to have to cover when they take over the banks.
Take Washington Mutual as an example. There are problems there. Their debt now trades at 20%, which is worse than junk. There is no way they could issue preferred stock to recapitalize their business. And they are going to need more capital, as they have writedowns in their future due to the slowing of the economy. Any common issue would have to seriously dilute existing shareholders almost to the point of nothing. There are circumstances in which they can survive, but it would take a remarkable recovery for the US economy, which is not likely. Maybe management can pull a rabbit out of the hat, but it will need some strong magic to get the capital they need at a cost they can live with.
The FDIC has about $50 billion. These reserves have been built up over the years from deposit insurance paid by banks that are part of the program. They are going to need an estimated $20 billion just to cover the failure of Indy Mac. The FDIC will have to cover only a small percentage of the $850 billion, as some of those assets will surely be good. But if they have to cover 10%, then the FDIC would need another $50 billion. Does that sound like a lot? Chris thinks a more conservative number for planning purposes would be 20-25% potential losses, and you hope it does not get there.
Sometime in the next few quarters, Congress and the President, either the current group or early in the term of the next President, are going to have to address that potential shortfall, before we see bank runs as people fear that FDIC insurance reserves may not be enough. The very sad fact is that taxpayers are going to be on the hook for some time. What is likely to happen is that a loan facility will be made to the FDIC so they can borrow as much as they need, and pay it back from future bank insurance payments.
You can't make up the shortfall just by raising fees. Chris points out that raising fees right now is not really a winning option, as that just makes the financial books of marginal banks even worse. You can raise rates as the banking system returns to health.
If Congress and the President wait too long, there could be a very serious problem, as depositors could start moving their funds under $100,000 (the insured amount) to what they perceive may be a safer bank than their current bank. Rumors could run rampant. This is something that needs to be addressed now. Frankly, this should be addressed right after the elections AT THE LATEST, in consultation with Congress and the new President.
If you are worried about your bank, you can go to Chris's web site and pay $50 for a brief analysis of your bank and an update for the next four quarters. If you have less than $100,000 in your accounts, you should not worry. But for businesses with large deposits and cash flows, it might be worth checking on the health of your bank. The link is http://us1.institutionalriskanalytics.com/Cart/Request.asp?affiliate=bmg123.
You can click on the link that says "Click here for the free samples" in the lower right corner of the page to see if the format of what they offer is something you would find useful.
$500 Billion and Counting
We have seen some $505 billion in bank write-offs so far in this credit crisis. It is serious naiveté to assume that this will be the extent of it. Most of the write-offs have been mortgage-related. We have not yet seen the write-offs that will come as consumers start defaulting on credit cards, auto loans, and other consumer debt. Neither have we seen the losses that will come from commercial real estate or corporate loan as the recession progresses. You can't write off something until it goes bad, although you can increase your loan loss provisions. This of course hits earnings and your stock price and thus your ability to raise new equity. It presents a very difficult dilemma for bank managers and investors deciding whether to invest or go away.
Sober-minded analysis from the IMF suggests that the total write-offs by all banks may be $1 trillion. Dr. Nouriel Roubini is much more alarmed and puts the potential losses at closer to $2 trillion. That means that banks over time are going to have to increase their loan loss provisions, hitting both earnings and capital. And that means they will have to raise more investment capital and equity at a time when their stock prices are low.
It is a vicious spiral. Banks have less capital, so they are able to lend less to the very businesses that need the money; and without said money the businesses will be less capable of paying their current loans, which means that banks have less capital. Rinse and repeat.
That only prolongs the recession and Muddle Through Economy, which hurts consumers and corporate profits, which in turn puts more pressure on banks. Ultimately it means that banks are going to have to raise a lot more capital than anyone who is buying financial stocks today imagines. And it is largely going to be expensive capital. Look at this note from Bennet Sedacca of Atlantic Advisors:
"Financial entities like banks, broker/dealers, regional banks, finance companies, and insurance companies need credit at reasonable rates in order to finance themselves. I have been concerned for many years that the door would finally shut on banks, brokers and others to raise new capital in the debt markets.
"For many regional banks like KeyCorp, Zions, Regions, and National City, the door has already shut on them--if they wanted to raise capital in the debt market at levels where their outstanding issues regularly trade, they would have to pay 12-15%, hardly economic levels. GM bonds trade near 27% yields. Washington Mutual trades north of 15%.
"Then there are the 'good banks', like J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo. J.P. Morgan recently sold $600 million of preferred stock at 8 3/4 % and Wells Fargo sold $1.3 billion at 8 5/8%, plus underwriting fees.
"Below I offer up a few guesses of what other issuers would have to pay to issue preferred stock.
Lehman Brothers--11-13%.
Merrill Lynch--11-12%.
Morgan Stanley--9-10%.
Citigroup--9 1/2-10 1/2%.
CIT Group--12-15%.
Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac---15%
Keycorp--11-13%.
National City--13-15%.
Wachovia--10-12%.
Zions Bancorp--13-15%.
GM/GMAC--not possible.
Washington Mutual--not possible.
Ford--not possible."
Bennet does note a good point. Banks that conserved capital and managed their risks well will be in good shape to take over weaker brethren. They will have access to the capital markets for the money they need for expansion. My own bank was acquired recently by another small regional bank. Deals are getting done.
In another note, and to illustrate this point, Sedacca points out that it is not just Freddie and Fannie. Besides Washington Mutual, mentioned above, "RF (Regions Financial) needs to raise $2 billion says Sanford Bernstein. Let's see, what are their options? They can sell debt. The problem here is that you couldn't sell debt if you wanted. The last reported trade in RF paper was 2 weeks ago nearly +700 to the 30 year or close to 12%. Their preferreds trade at 10% and the stock is now a 'single digit midget' near $8 a share. So if you could even get a deal done, shareholders would get a 50% haircut."
Fannie, Freddie, and the Credit Crisis
Let's turn to Freddie and Fannie. There must be some people who think there is some way that the shareholders of Fannie and Freddie will not lose everything, as their shares actually trade. This just simply goes to show that you can fool some of the people some of the time. And as we will see, some of those people are very serious institutions.
It is almost a forgone conclusion that the US Treasury will have to step in and for all intents and purposes nationalize the two government-sponsored enterprises. The estimated losses in these two firms are far beyond what they could raise in a traditional market. And the longer the government waits, the worse the situation is likely to get.
Moody's downgraded the preferred stock in these firms to almost junk level because of the increased likelihood of "direct support" from the US Treasury, which, depending on the nature of the support, could wipe out both the holders of the common and the preferred. The preferred shares have already lost half their value since June 30 on speculation that an intervention would mean a stop in dividend payments (highly likely) and issuance of new preferred that would take preference over current preferred.
Interestingly, this would put more pressure on the banking system, as many banks hold the GSE preferred shares as assets, choosing to get a little extra return over traditional and more conservative assets. But then of course, Fannie and Freddie preferred were considered safe just a few months ago, with the best ratings from Moody's.
"Regional banks including Midwest Bank Holdings Inc., Sovereign Bancorp and Frontier Financial Corp., may have the most to lose. Melrose Park, Illinois-based Midwest has $67.5 million, or as much as 23 percent of its risk-weighted assets, in the preferred stock, while Philadelphia-based Sovereign owns about $623 million and Everett, Washington-based Frontier about $5 million." (Bloomberg)
It is doubtful that banks which hold these assets have written them down yet, but with a downgrade they will almost certainly be forced to do so in the near future. For the record, Fannie Mae has 17 classes of preferred stock, with more than 600 million shares outstanding. Freddie Mac has 24 classes of preferred stock, with about 460 million shares outstanding. The existing shares are trading worse than junk bonds, paying 17-19%.
And it may be a total write-off. It is hard to imagine how Treasury Secretary Paulson, or a new Treasury Secretary next year, could put US taxpayer money into the companies at risk without wiping out the current common and preferred shareholders. The justified outrage would be huge.
The basic problem is that without Freddie and Fannie the US mortgage market would go from crippled to moribund, if not dead. We have created a system that could not function in the short term without them, and the pain of allowing them to collapse would be another 1930s-style Depression, the era in which these firms were first created. They were never designed to take on the huge leverage they did, or to use hundreds of millions in lobbyist money and campaign contributions to create a massive payment scheme for management and shareholders. Congressional estimates are that this could cost US taxpayers $25 billion, a significant multiple of their current market caps.
Fannie and Freddie will not be able to raise capital on their own. At this point, why would any rational investor put that much money into a company with such a convoluted preferred share scheme, without government guarantees? That estimated loss assumes that the housing market does not get worse from this point. Losses could be much worse, or things could get better. Who knows? Why invest in something with so much uncertainty?
But there are more problems. You can't just take someone else's property, and that is what stock is, without some serious reasons. You almost are forced to wait for a crisis, otherwise shareholders would sue, saying that they suffered unnecessary losses. You can certainly expect the preferred shareholders to sue. That is why Paulson hired JP Morgan to figure out how to recapitalize the banks. I don't envy the people who are working on that one. Maybe there is some magic somewhere, but as we saw with Bear Stearns, at the end of the day it is all about adequate capital.
The GSE companies should be adequately capitalized and broken up into much smaller firms that would not be too big too fail in the future, and put under a regulator that would enforce reasonable leverage limits, with the profits going to pay back the US taxpayer before any profits or dividends are paid to any other future owners.
That is, if the government takes the two GSEs and puts capital (probably in the form of loans and guarantees) into them, which puts taxpayers at risk, then allows a public offering of the smaller entities to raise capital to repay the loans, any shortfall should be made up by the issuance of preferred shares, and the common shareowners would wait until the government loan was repaid before they would be eligible for a dividend.
And the people responsible for creating the leveraged systems, the board, et al., should be forced to resign. New top management all around.
The ultimate goal should be for taxpayers to get their money back and any guarantee, implicit or explicit, to be removed. No mortgage bank should ever again be allowed to be too big too fail.
Now, taken as a part of the total credit crisis, which will run to over $1 trillion (at least), $25 billion may not seem like a lot. But I hope this is a wake-up call for better regulations and safeguards.
And before I go, let me reiterate my call for regulators to force banks to move their credit default swaps to an exchange. The potential for a blow-up is serious, and it could dwarf the current credit crisis. I am not saying it will happen, just that it could. Even a low-risk event should be protected against. Credit default swaps are legitimate business transactions. They are very useful. They should just be put on an exchange, like futures or options, where there is 100% transparency as to counterparty risk.
Baltimore, La Jolla, and South Africa
I am home for a few weeks, enjoying the tail end of summer. On September 6, Tiffani and I will head to Baltimore to be with Bill Bonner, founder of Agora Publishing, and a host of friends, to celebrate his 60th birthday. It is hard to believe that we have known each other for 26 years. What an incredible business model he has created. He has adapted with the times, letting his business evolve into a multi-hundred-million-dollar enterprise. I remember first going to his offices in Baltimore, which were definitely in a very bad part of town. I was nervous just walking two blocks in broad daylight; but the offices were inexpensive, I suppose.
He is the one of the best pure writers I know. You can read some of his essays and subscribe to the free Daily Reckoning (be warned: Bill is quite bearish) by clicking on this link: http://www.dailyreckoning.com/rpt/mauldin.html.
Tiffani and I will then be going to La Jolla September 15 to meet with my partners at Altegris, and meet some new potential associates. Right now, drinks with Richard and Faye Russell is on the calendar, and I really look forward to it.
Then a few weeks later I will head off on a quick trip to South Africa, where I will be speaking for an investment group in Cape Town, then maybe stop off in London for a day and then hurry home in time to do my regular letter.
That is enough to make me tired, so I think I will hit the send button and go home and see who is there. Have a great week.
Your needing to seek my own balance analyst,
http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=11057&pv=1
Fed. Ops: 35.75B Matures this week.
Mon: 1.75B 3day
Wed: 20.00B 28day
Thu: 5.00B 14day
>>> 9.00B 7day
========================================================
Temp Ops:
=======================================================
Public Debt:
Limit ~ $10,600 T
8/21 ~~ $9,618 T <UpTicking
New $10.6 trillion debt ceiling.
#msg-30998680
=========================================================
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Thanks Farooq. /
Schiff: Investors Chase Phantoms
Peter Schiff,
Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.
Friday, 22 August 2008
In football, when a running back intends to cut to the left, he often first fakes right. This move is designed to make the defense commit their resources in the wrong direction. It is my experience that markets often follow a similar path. Just prior to a major move in one direction, markets often make a sharp move in the opposite direction first. With respect to the dollar, gold, oil and other commodities, many on Wall Street have bought into the head fake, and will soon be watching in amazement as the runner sprints to the end zone.
Over the last few months, as the dollar rose more than 10% against a basket of other currencies, and as gold and oil sank to multi-month lows, many investors concluded that a threshold had been crossed, and that the bearish trend for the dollar and the bullish trends for commodities had finally come to an end. But rather than representing a sea change, these counter trend moves more likely signify that the established trends are about to kick it into a whole new gear. My take is that if you thought you had seen a bear market in the dollar and bull market in gold, oil, and other commodities, well, “you ain’t seen nothing yet”.
Corrections are often vicious, designed to shake loose as many investors as possible prior to a major move. The best bull markets carry as little excess baggage as possible. With few speculators on board to sell into every rally, the true believers who remain can receive the full benefit of a fundamental upswing. Violent downward moves also force out those that were too highly leveraged, or those who showed up late to the party with little understanding of the true fundamentals. Those who panicked and jumped out too low often scramble to reestablish positions at higher prices, further fueling the bull market.
This recent correction saw the most dramatic change in sentiment that I have ever witnessed. But the head fake that caused the market to commit was in fact not worthy of a high school benchwarmer. With absolutely no significant developments that could explain either a top in the dollar, or a bottom in commodities, investors placed their faith in price moments alone. Once the numbers started to show some retrograde motion, everyone simply assumed that a real change had taken place, and the momentum buying and selling began. The rapid movement reveals how clueless participants in these trades had become. Even those fund managers that seem to understand the fundamentals were fooled by the sharp price movements and the rhetoric they spawned.
Lacking any real change in fundamentals, such abrupt changes in sentiment following extreme price swings are as bullish a sign as I have ever seen. There is absolutely no basis for a significant dollar rally, or further weakness in gold, oil, or other commodities.
The U.S. is the focal point of the world’s financial turmoil. We convinced creditors around the globe into loaning us trillions of dollars. Now that it’s becoming increasingly apparent we cannot pay the money back, Wall Street has concocted a scenario where our shell shocked creditors respond by loaning us even more. More alarming is that many brain dead investors see this as a likely development.
The fact is that the outlook for the dollar has never been bleaker and the prospects for gold and other commodities have never been brighter. The rationale for a new dollar bull market, or bear markets in commodities, is just as flawed as those used to justify investments in internet stocks and subprime mortgages. Interestingly enough, it’s mostly the same suspects advancing the arguments.
http://news.goldseek.com/EuroCapital/1219425492.php
Yeah saving $$ to fund bills Wash.
Been eyeballing XLF for several days
can't place a bet with such high prem...risk / reward, love to catch the lying sh!ts.
tight cluster
Fed. 3day RP + 1.75B [all add BigDeal ]
The Slosh Report:
http://www.gmtfo.com/RepoReader/OMOps.aspx
Merrill, Goldman, Deutsche Bank in ARS settlement
By John Letzing, MarketWatch
Last update: 5:47 p.m. EDT Aug. 21, 2008Comments: 1SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo said late Thursday he's reached settlement agreements with Merrill Lynch & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG over the firms'
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/merrill-goldman-deutsche-bank-ars/story.aspx?guid=%7B2DFB2E12%2D9540%2D47B6%2D9AE8%2DE68F3B8B5FED%7D&dist=msr_8
Gold Seeker Closing Report:
Gold and Silver Soar With Oil While Dollar Drops
By: Chris Mullen, Gold-Seeker.com
-- Posted Thursday, 21 August 2008
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1219377600.php
Gold Seeker Closing Report:
Gold and Silver Soar With Oil While Dollar Drops
By: Chris Mullen, Gold-Seeker.com
-- Posted Thursday, 21 August 2008
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1219377600.php
TGC + 16.13% sm cap
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=TGC
Fed.(2) 7day RP + 9.00B [net Drain -1.75B ]
The Slosh Report:
http://www.gmtfo.com/RepoReader/OMOps.aspx
Fed. 14day RP + 5.00B [Sofar
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Auction-rate probe focuses on 3 banks
Thursday August 21, 7:02 am ET
By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer
Source: New York AG focuses auction-rate probe on BofA, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank
NEW YORK (AP) -- New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo will intensify his probe into auction-rate securities by focusing on Bank of America Corp., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG, a person close to the investigation said Wednesday.
The banks are the three biggest players in the auction-rate securities market that have not already reached a settlement with Cuomo, who is seeking deals on behalf of regulators and state authorities. Five major Wall Street firms including Citigroup Inc. and Switzerland's UBS AG have agreed to $42 billion in settlements.
For the next phase, Cuomo has directed staff to spend more time gathering facts and talking to the three banks about the sale of the risky securities, said a person inside the attorney general's office who asked not to be identified by name because he was not authorized to speak publicly about it.
The investigators are examining how brokerages sold auction-rate securities before the $330 billion market collapsed in February. No one that has settled has admitted wrongdoing.
A spokeswoman for BofA declined to comment. Deutsche Bank did not immediately return telephone calls, and a spokesman at Goldman Sachs said the firm was "cooperating fully with all regulators."
Also on Wednesday, Cuomo's office reiterated that smaller brokerage firms that acted as middlemen in sales of auction-rate securities will be held accountable for any losses suffered by investors.
Brokerages like Fidelity Investments, Charles Schwab Corp., TD Ameritrade Holding Corp., E-Trade Financial Corp. and Oppenheimer & Co. are being investigated over how they pitched the investments to clients, according to a letter obtained by The Associated Press. These firms, known as downstream brokerages, acted as secondary dealers by purchasing auction-rate securities from the major banks that packaged them.
"If downstream brokerages deliberately stuck their heads in the sand but continued to actively market these products to unknowing investors, that will certainly be relevant to our calculus of the firms' culpability," Benjamin Lawsky, deputy counselor and special assistant to Cuomo, said in the letter. "These firms are licensed broker-dealers and were obviously well paid by their clients for their specialized knowledge and diligence regarding the appropriateness of various products as investments."
The Regional Bond Dealers Association earlier this week asked regulators to focus their attention on the primary dealers that first sold the securities. They believe that smaller brokerages should not be expected to buy back the investments from their customers, arguing that the major Wall Street banks that underwrote the securities should be held responsible.
The Washington-based bond market trade group said that about $60 billion of the auction-rate securities were sold through brokerages that didn't know the market was in danger of collapse.
The auction-rate securities market involved investors buying and selling instruments that resembled corporate debt, except the interest rates were reset at regular auctions, some as frequently as once a week. A number of companies and retail clients invested in the securities because they could treat their holdings almost like cash.
But the market for them collapsed amid the downturn in the broader credit markets. Regulators have been investigating the collapse in the market to determine who was responsible for its demise and whether banks knowingly misrepresented the safety of the securities when selling them to investors.
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W@G2 QQQQ 08/20/08 for a 08/22/08 close
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Reports: Dubai to issue sweeping real estate law
Wednesday August 20, 6:11 am ET
Reports: Dubai ruler approves mortgage law aimed at regulating booming realty market
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) -- Dubai newspapers are reporting that the local government has issued a mortgage law aimed at regulating the city-state's booming property market.
Wednesday's reports in the Khaleej Times and the Gulf News say that the law requires that mortgages be insured, sold by approved banks, registered with local authorities and that they specify the property value and terms of the loan.
They say the ruler of Dubai, Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, issued the decree on the new law. It will take effect 60 days from publication.
The decree comes amid a corruption probe involving some of Dubai's most prominent companies and growing concerns that speculators are inflating prices in the emirate's frenzied real estate market.
Futures (2) + World Indices
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Let's Be Hunts
By: David Bond, Editor
The Silver Valley Mining Journal
17 August, 2008
The Wallace Street Journal
Wallace, Idaho – Forgive two rants so close apart, but no sooner had our tirade on the scarcity of retail silver appeared on Goldseek and LeMetropole Cafe – it would have appeared on our own Silverminers.com except we're still rebuilding the site from whoever hacked the hell out of it last month – than the U.S. Mint halted sales of its fabulously popular 1-ounce Gold Eagle coins to the American public.
That was last Thursday night, after we went to bed. Much has happened between Thursday night and this Sunday night. There's no retail 1-ounce silver left on the market; deliveries of 100-ounce Comex-grade bars won't happen until October 15th. The Gold Eagles are gone. GONE!!!!!!!
One would think, as we postulated last Thursday, that the reason the prices for gold and silver were so low was that nobody wanted them. That would be the classic Keynsian explanation. But instead we were told that the reason the prices were so low is that EVERYONE wanted silver and gold 1-ounce coins.
When the market starts talking such gibberish, it's time to start thinking about a Hunt. As in, Nelson Bunker and William Herbert Hunt. We remain amazed, 18 years later, that supposedly sophisticated investors regard the events of 1979 and 1980 as “that time when the Hunts tried to corner the silver market.”
This is one of those monster myths that is so incredible and so false it must be believed by the unwashed masses. Regrettably, detritus of these masses grow up to be Presidents of the United Snakes, or of some branch of the Federal Reserve Bank. Makes them no less idiots, their Ivy League pedigrees notwithstanding.
In 1977, Bunky Hunt surveyed a battlefield much as the one that confronts us: there was paper silver a-plenty for sale, but not a physical ounce in sight. Hunt and his brother, reared in the resource-rich ethic of mid-Texas and Oklahoma, saw a gaping hole in the illusion that is American wealth: a bunch of paper selling a commodity that could not be bought. These things occur from time to time in corn, soybean, and oil commodities, but only temporarily until the market quickly achieves contango – its balance. The only time a gaping imbalance between the paper and the physical market is allowed to persist, the only time the paper price is allowed to be lower, and lower for a long period of time, than the physical price of the commodity, is in the trading of silver and gold.
It is useful for a government like the one that has commandeered the United Snakes, such government and its banks, to permit such an imbalance to exist. If the paper price of silver and gold are severely lower than their actual value, the paper money that the United Snakes and its banks issue is theoretically more valuable – relative to silver and gold – than it really is. Push down the metals, up goes the U$ Dollar. This is our current situation.
And it is profitable for the United Snakes government until some kill-joy comes along and wants delivery. The Brothers Hunt saw that the absurdly-priced silver contract of $3.50 an ounce was a bargain, that $3.50 silver existed nowhere in the real world except in the paper futures pits, but there it was, for sale, on the Comex.
My late friend, Paul Sarnoff, watched the thing unfold from his front-row seat at Paine Weber. The Hunts were a client, as was a Catholic archdiocese and several Arabs, who were getting worried about the quality of the paper they were being paid for their oil. Put yourself back in those times: gas prices were going through the roof; home mortgages, if you could get one and had perfect credit, were going for 18 percent APR; we had a weak President facing unpopular situations in Iran (where there were hostages) and Afghanistan (where the Russians were being adventurous). There was a run on the U.S. dollar in Europe.
And there was no silver. Not since the United Snakes had kicked silver out of the U.S. monetary system had silver been more scarce. Yet there it was, for sale on the Comex, for sale by the likes of the big central banks and bullion banks of the world. But such was no big deal. Between 97 and 99 percent of those 5,000-ounce silver contracts were settled in paper.
But the Hunts and their friends – this was in 1977 – began buying this paper over a period of years. By October 1979, the Hunts and their pals had bought up the bullion dealers' paper positions to the tune of 192 million ounces. Nelson Bunker Hunt owned 79 million ounces of silver – on paper; William Herbert Hunt, another 48 million ounces; their pals, including the Arabs, another 65 million ounces.
Is it too much to ask, if you buy a car from a guy, and you pay him the cash and he signs over the title, that you might get the car? This, ladies and gentlemen, is all the Hunts ever asked. They did not ever “corner” the silver market. All they asked was for the bullion dealers to keep their promises, and deliver.
Chaos ensued. There was then – as there is now – no silver to be had. Not in London or New York warehouses nor in the ground. Not anywhere. And for the simple reason that the Hunts and their pals asked for the delivery of silver they were promised by contract, they were vilified. Driven to ruin. And they provoked their own ruin: Bunky said he'd issue silver certificates in lieu of paper dollars, if people wanted to play. When I was a child, silver certificates were the money of the land.
This writer carries no cross for the Hunts. They were forced to sell the brokerage, Bache, that had carried their contracts but bet against them. But they still have their race-horses in Paris, and I am sure they have not missed a meal.
But there is a monster short position in silver again. It probably exists to prop up the Bush puppetry until the November election. Presidential election years are always hard on metals and easy on mortgage rates, except this year, the mortgage market is done, so new paradigms are in the making. Metals may come back far sooner than is ordered by the Fed and the FDIC. And remember, here is no Jimmy Carter to sell a billion ounces of silver into the market to quiet the Dollar worries. Carter's still around, but those 1 billion ounces are long gone.
The Hunts shook the lying bankers to their boots – to the point where intervention by the Fed, Treasury, and the Defense Department were warranted – merely by asking for delivery of the 192 million ounces of silver they'd been promised. This was not a “cornering” of a market; it was the attempt to enforce a contract, same as you've got with your landlord or bank.
So let's all of us be Hunts. Ask delivery of $12.80 silver and $790 gold, today. There are 300 million of us. A single ounce of physical silver for every man, woman and child in the United Snakes would squeeze these rat-bastards harder than the Hunts could ever do. There were two Hunt brothers in 1979. There are 300 million of us in 2008. Even in this country, there aren't enough jail cells to hold us all. And we could take their pants off, once and for all.
http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1219028976.php
with oil moving & moving to front month
tomo, l'm holding my GSS. that's my plan.