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Roche Holding AG trades on the Swiss Exchange, at over $200 and with volume well over a million shares per day (so daily trades ~ 1/4 billion dollars).
They are not an OTC pink sheet , but their ADRs trade on the OTC(QX).
Hardly comparable.
Just for fun, the CFO said Ideal's partners are expecting 50% Q-over-Q growth next year (well, he strongly hinted at that figure), and they are targeting between 30-40% gross margin...
If we assume NO new partners, 35% gross margin, only 35% Q-on-Q growth, and a share price valued at 20 times earnings, this company would reach $1bn valuation by the end of 2017.
Fully diluted, that's $82/share.
But more likely is that they will have even more partners, probably higher margins, and higher growth, be in more markets, have IP licensing revenue too, and on top of all that the BTRAN tech could be a bigger source of revenue than their PPSA products.
Outstanding investment opportunity this company is, IMO.
2 more weeks, still no 10Q's and still no news on the TV spot + media campaign.
When (not if) it does happen, since this is still an OTC stock.. the share price will likely move in very unpredictable and volatile ways. Since I suck as a trader, I will simply take along my barf bag and try to hold steady through the euphoric rises and sickening falls
Random notes from the CFO's presentation just now at Craig Hallum:
(anything in "double quotes" are CFO's own words)
-----
Cost cutting measures are underway - expect to cut product costs in half!!! (already cost-competitive today)
3-port 30kW converter is certified today
125kW converte should be certified "within a month"
BTRAN : 5 issued patents, with 20-30 more pending
Rexell (owns Gexpro) = 15bn euros annual revenue
Kaco has 8GW of installed battery today, approached IPWR to white-label PPSA as their own product
Kaco is also at SPI in Anaheim this week and are showcasing an 'Ideal Inside' unit on-display!
Powin (China) ordered 4x125kW units for building storage container deployment
Have already sold products into ALL applications from slide 8 (so including EV charging, wind, solar PV, BESS, microgrid, etc.)
Going after BESS and microgrid first,as they are highest growth, but will get into all others eventually
One demo in a completely new market is underway, expect "results later this year"
Bus model is lean: even at $100m in revenue, will still be only 50 person company
Fully diluted: 12.2 million shares (6m float today)
Cash $20m, Debt: 0
Will see a noticeable decrease in cash use by early 2016
In Q4 will reveal the name of the secret partnership with solar installer (not yet publicly announced that they are going to enter the market)
Q&A
Rev growth until now is "relatively moderate"
"market devleoping now"
Customer are sharing their 2016 projections, and they are "aggressive ramps" ("50% per Q")?
With certification (in 1 month) of 125kW unit, will see increase Q4 backlog, and it will have a "meaningful impact on revenue in 2016"
Tech is scalable upward and downward
Could create a bigger product, could create a residential product
"dont'think residential market is ready" (but have prototype in lab)
Not decided what next product will be after 125kW and 125kW 3-port (Q2 2016)
To achieve target 30-40% margins (which excludes licensing), they need $20-$25 annual revenue, and would be cashflow positive at that point
If BESS forecasts are right, CFP will be "much before 2018"
Why no beleive in retail? Tesla does?
Tesla is good at marketing… image, but the numbers don't add up.
Have been approached by multiple companies about residential offering, but they aren't clear on specs…
It's easy to scale from 30kW down to 7/10kW, so can move quickly if/when they decide to move into retail.
Have paired up to 8 30kW units, can pair 2x125kW… not clear why need a bigger unit. Will consider if it MW scale is needed.
BTRAN costs:
Replacing 2 IGBTs and 2 diodes with 1 BTRAN is cost neutral, but big on efficiency savings!
Move from 96.5 to 99+ %: heat dissipation reduced (fans only), so can double the power density of their unit.
POC BTRAN scheduled for 1H2016, but commercialization not until 2017.
Their market is just beginning.
Ideal is in the "majority of the BESS installations" in California today
BESS has no entrenched players and high-growth.
New markets with bigger entrenched players will be tacked with BTRAN is out "when even a small company like ours can no longer be ignored"
What BS?
Why do YOU believe Heddle hasn't reached out to ANY of the JV's that Bordynuik already vetted back in 2011?
You are correct: if this company goes BK, Heddle will lose his investment. so will I. So will everybody. Nothing BS about that.
The only BS are the games being played to create the illusion that somebody will ever buy P2O processors. Month after month, year after year.. same old BS.
I know of at least 5 other JV candidates that had the funds available back in 2011. Heddle just has to pick up the phone...
Oh, yeah... the difference is that they realized that P2O doesn't work. EcoNav doesn't (or does, perhaps, and Bordy's behind it just pulling more strings to keep the PPS above a nickel so his "family" can liquidate their trust shares).
Yes, their units do operate at 50Hz and 220-240V (as opposed to 60Hz and 110V in the US), as my understanding is that it's merely a software config different (very cool). But the certification ... not sure I have seen that it's in the works officially, yet. I'll ask IR about territories covered by partnerships, and certifications, and I'll post back here.
As for China, yes, they did send a unit there (their PPSA software was encrypted to avoid it being copied), but I recall that it was for a "pilot" or something, and thus very early days for any orders to come out of it. Also, additional certification would certainly be required there too.
Just saw that that Brdar's presentation will be streamed live, tomorrow: http://wsw.com/webcast/ch5/ipwr
I agree.. it's frustratingly quiet lately, but I'm just impatient, and anyway that is one of the things I like about this company.. they are more focused on growing the business than growing the share price. One will lead to the other, in due time. But my position is firmly established now.. I'm overweight IPWR in my portfolio, and I'm going to hold for a long time.
I have half a mind to drop by the Craig Hallum conference tomorrow, but I don't expect any "news" per-se to come from it. Nor do I expect the event to attract any significant retail or institutional investors that may help nudge the share price up. That will only come with time (=revenue).
As for EU coverage, do we know whether the partnerships they have in place DO cover any territories outside the US? Indeed, their partners are global, but are the contracts also, and can they sell products in the EU already?
I'd like to see Ideal Power have partnerships outside the US. I don't have any comparables at hand, but I'm pretty sure Europe is at least as big a market for BESS (and thus, Ideal Power) as the US is today.
Do we know if their converters have received (or have pending) any EU certification needed to start shipping product overseas?
I'd asked the question of tackling the European market over a year ago to IR, and they'd said their focus was the US market for the near term. Maybe licensing their IP to somebody like ABB, Schneider, Siemens, etc would be a better strategy for international penetration?
I closed my speculative position in Mantra the other day, to put the money elsewhere.
The complete lack of progress with their ERC projects, and the pathetic MRFC scooter video led me to believe they're still just mickey-mousing around.
IMO there is still plenty of time to get back in, and with much lower risk, if/when the ERC partnerships start to bear real fruit.
As for the MRFC, it's still far from being proven viable (not the science, but the industrial and commercialization plans), and is several years away (if it makes it at all) from generating any kind of revenue for the company.
All just IMO, of course.
Did something change in the past few years that made requiring new lab equipment to test fuels a necessity? Seems to me Bordynuik already spent a ton of money on upgrading their mobile lab for fuel testing tech, and already had a state-of-the-art facility.
Today's 8k was not "material" at all, other than the CEO's decision to indefinitely postpone the AGM.
More of the same. As Beer right said, there are/were many other partners WITH the funds to buy processors many years ago. Why not contact some of them? Maybe cuz they know that P2O don't do what's advertised.
"PSUs vest based on the satisfaction of certain stock-price based performance targets"
Nice. Looks like our SVP's interests are now squarely aligned with my own
If he does, I'll move the 3% I have left of my initial investment in JBI over to that. One thing is for sure.. John's good a running a scam. You can make money if you get in and out at the right time. At one point I'd had an unrealized gain of almost $200k with JBI. If I knew he was a crook, I would have sold for a handsome profit.
I'm happy to have found other excellent investments that are run by decent, morally intact, people. People who know how to run a business. I've almost made my JBI losses back in the past few years. John Bordynuik did one good thing -- he taught me a lesson about investing. A disgustingly expensive one, but a lesson nonetheless. One that has prevented me from investing into other dubious OTC stocks.
Nah, he's moved on to "gullible" investors. The naïve ones have all sold or gone away.
I pride myself on being more naïve, than gullible.
For what it's worth, I have every confidence that Ideal can reach, within a few years, SolarEdge's revenues. And if they do, their net income should be much higher due to their business model.
SolarEdge is valued at just over $1bn today. If IPWR were to command that market cap, the PPS would be close to $100.
Just a matter of time, IMO.
Oh, and then there's that whole B-TRAN invention opportunity
I wrote to Ideal's IR a while ago about SolarEdge (after the announcement that Tesla chose them for it's PowerWall solution), and here is some of what they replied:
I'm just saying that your posts (and EcoMike's) on the BLDP board are frequently about Mantra, and not Ballard. They are off-topic. Not everyone who follows Ballard, also follows Mantra.
If you want to speculate which fuel cell partnerships Plug may need in the future, then it's relevant to the PLUG and MVTG boards, not BLDP board.
Please stay on-topic. Here, the topic is Ballard.
Fantastic read, thanks! And it now shows up on my SA mobile app too.
I'd had a modest position in RDHL until now, but I think I'll step it up a little. It's nice to read like-minded, objective, articles like this one.
Growing tired of desperate plugs for Mantra on this board. Please stick to Ballard.
I'd love to read that analysis, but cannot see it on the SA app and only have a basic SA membership.
Oops, my bad.. sorry, you are right. They're #1 in Germany for residential, but indeed it was stated that they're coming to the US for C&I. Apologies.
Nevertheless, the article you reference does seems to imply that the US residential market is a worthwhile focus for Sonnebatterie, and one can only assume Ideal will offer products where there is demand. It should not take much to design a competitive 5-10kW unit using their PPSA, no?
In the last CC, Brdar did mention that their partnership with Sonnebatterie was indeed all about a US residential offering, which was in contrast to past statements saying their focus was on C&I applications (for the US).
It would certainly imply that either they have a residential-focus converter in the works, or will simply use their existing (but overpowered?) 30kW units. When I asked IR (back in May) about the comparison between SolarEdge's converters (Tesla's chosen partner), they replied this:
It's the only impressive thing the string of management over the years has managed to accomplish... stay out of BK and stay trading (although at a nickel, it's not THAT much of an accomplishment).
Pulease... 200? Are any of those people who invested in JBII from $1 up through $5-6, and sitting on 97% losses? If so, please put me in touch with them.. I need to start a support group. If true, they clearly possess information THIS shareholder does not. And don't tell me their faith is based on public information, as there is NONE that supports the theory that P2O is economically viable.
Only we've known for years now that a 3-5 day run will not suffice, as it doesn't cover the downtime required for clean-out and maintenance. Remember the 3-day ..ahem.. "audit" that was carried out and ...ahem.. "concluded" that P2O was viable and produced $110/bbl oil at a cost of $10/bbl? Not only was it full of assumptions that JB fed to the people performing the report, but it assumed that the uptime of 100% during 3 days could be extrapolated to 300 days. Bad assumption.
P2O isn't viable. Everybody knows that by now. Heddle is following in John's shoes and misleading shareholders, again.
The pilot will not happen, and P2O will declare bankruptcy, and Heddle will resign. And then the $100k that I had invested that is now worth $3k, will be worth $0.
One more US patent granted today (# 9,124,095).
When news of increased orders and/or partnerships hits the wire, I would expect the share price to move back to the $10-11 range.
The renewable and storage sector boom is in full swing, so sales should pick-up dramatically in the coming Q or two.
Much better volume today than those mini-trades.
What will be hard, is the temptation to take some off the table when it hits $0.50, which I hope/expect before the end of the year. But long-term, this is easily a $2 stock (again).
Waiting for the missing 10Q's, and the media push + broadcasting of the interview with the CEO.
From that aritcle, EOS says that by 2016 it should have "100MW of annual capacity" (a 10x improvement over 2015), which if achieved would translate to roughly $25 million in revenue for IPWR.
I imagine they could do 10x on top of 2016's volume within a couple of years of that.
Yes, that's their unit. It's the same photo one used in the PR from IPWR:
http://ir.idealpower.com/press-releases/detail/214/eos-energy-storage-selects-ideal-power-battery-converter-to-demonstrate-ac-integrated-energy-storage-system-with-con-edison-in-nyc
Interesting to see that Gexpro (spinoff of GE) is using Ideal Power's inverters, but GE is still using their own in this deal:
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20150820005157/en/GE-Signs-Largest-Battery-Energy-Storage-Deal
I hope Ideal is making some big in-roads with their licensing. There is no reason the PPSA can't become part of every brand of inverter out there.
I'm kinda expecting to see a handful of partnerships / licensing deals 8K'd in the coming few weeks (based on nothing but a hunch, mind you).
I believe the ADRs traded on the US OTC represent 20 shares of ASX:EVM, so they normally trade in that ratio (albeit out of sync due to TZ differences and volume). You may be able to fiddle with a few ARDs that are out of whack, but I suppose not very many.
The stock traded on the ASX went from $0.06 before the news, to $0.165 just before the halt, and then settled back at $0.115, so that's still a double from the pre-news levels, and with enormous volume too. I dont'follow the OTC ADRs, as it's even less liquid that EVM on the ASX.
The share price now is still way below the price the Japanese fund will invest at, and we're still in a period of no construction planned for any tower anywhere, so there is plenty of upside for the patient investor.
Still many things have to come to pass before this company has an equity stake in multiple operational power plants, but that's the plan and they're slowly moving things forward.
http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/64305/enviromission-attracts-110m-in-solar-project-funding-trading-halt-64305.html
It's nice to see a placement in the company priced at over 3x the current market price. Shows tons of confidence.
Now we need to see Apollo or the Indian developer commit funds for construction, and all pre-construction studies/permits/paperwork cleared before we can see anyone break ground.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Agreed. In stark contrast to Enviromission's up-draft tower, which just had some very exciting news.
This shows the difference between a company peddling ideas with no execution, and a company executing their ideas for well over a decade now.
http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/64305/enviromission-attracts-110m-in-solar-project-funding-trading-halt-64305.html
EVM shares halted on ASX as Enviromission releases news of a $110 million funding agreement with a Japanese fund. Shares were up almost 200% before the halt.
Huge congratulations to the Enviromission team for persevering all these years.
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/company.do#!/EVM
Boom
An article on LG Chem's growth strategy, wherein is says "LG Chem was recently ranked first in Navigant Research’s report of lithium-ion grid storage manufacturers."
Nice to hear the number one player has chosen Ideal.
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=3008491&cloc=etc|jad|googlenews
High volume for THIS stock sure but still only $10k traded today.
ha, as I wrote that, it came whistling back down to a dime.