Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
central bank gold sales
on schedule
http://www.drivehq.com/file/df.aspx?isGallary=true&shareID=2730439&fileID=94454252
China's Corn Export Price Rebounds 26% in September
By David Harman
22 Oct 2007 at 10:34 AM GMT-04:00
SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- China's corn exports rebounded in September from summer lows, with the average corn free on board (FOB) price up 26% year-on-year, according China National Grain and Oil Information Center (CNGOIC) statistics released today.
China exported approximately 380,000 tonnes of corn in September, at an average FOB price of RMB 1,574 ($209.71) per tonne, up 5.14% from August.
Heilongjiang Province's corn export FOB price jumped to RMB 1,547 ($206.12) per tonne in September, up 6.47% from August, while the FOB price of corn exported from Liaoning Province increased 4.91% to RMB 1,600 ($213.18) per tonne.
China's corn exports have grown rapidly since the start of the year 4.53 million tonnes by the end of September, mainly due to the country fulfilling contracts signed last year.
China's corn imports only amounted to 1,392 tonnes in September, and 10,167 tonne from January to September, down 83% from the same period last year, due to rising domestic corn output and soaring international corn prices this year.
Corn futures tumbled on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) today, with the most traded May 2008 contract falling 1.02% to RMB 1,642 ($218.77) per tonne and continuing to fluctuate at low levels during most the day.
"Corn futures may keep fluctuating between RMB 1,627 ($216.77) and RMB 1,662 ($221.44) in the short term," said Zhang Xiangdong, analyst from Daye Futures.
In the spot market, corn prices kept dropping. Stale corn stockpiles remain unsold as fresh corn came onto the market, though corn demand from feedstuff manufacturers continues to drop. Corn processing companies are currently the major corn purchaser.
Commentary
The important issue here is not necessarily the rapid growth in exports or the pricing. It is the fact that 4.53 million tonnes have been completed out of a total 4.8 million tonne export quota, and that there will be no more additional quota's granted this year.
Furthermore, next years quotas will be limited to 3 million tonnes. This lower quota is due to increased domestic demand which is quite likely to result in a shortfall in the near future.
Russians ban meat from 23 U.S. sites
_______________
Being the contrarian, picked up small, initial position in TSN. Will likely be looking to add on weakness, but buying TSN now puts this one on my radar screen.
Although he has not commented recently, Don Coxe believes the meat processors will be able to pass on grain feed prices to end consumers. I believe this as well.
Russians trying to get a lower price than $.45/lb, but believe they will soon find this to be a cheap price...
____________
Russian inspectors banned 23 U. S. facilities from exporting meat products to the Russian Federation this week, including poultry processing plants, pork slaughterhouses and several cold warehouses, the U. S. Department of Agriculture reported Friday.
The plants affected — including three Tyson Foods Inc. poultry plants and one plant owned by Siloam Springsbased Simmons Foods Inc. — will be prohibited from shipping to Russia starting Nov. 1.
Four U. S. pork plants were also affected, though none had ties to Northwest Arkansas. Russia offered no clear reason why the plants were banned, U. S. farm officials said.
Russia is by far the largest buyer of U. S. poultry. In 2006, Russia bought $ 645 million of broiler meat, compared with $ 235 million bought by Canada, the second-largest customer.
“We’re still gauging what, if any, impact Russia’s decision will have on our poultry operations,” Tyson spokesman Gary Mickelson said in an e-mail, noting that Springdale-based Tyson still has 13 plants eligible to ship to Russia.
Among the plants affected were Tyson plants in Clarksville, Ark., and Carthage, Miss.; a Choctaw Maid Farms plant owned by Tyson in Forest, Miss.; and a Simmons plant in Siloam Springs.
Mickelson said the Choctaw plant had already been shipping to other countries. Two messages seeking comment were not returned by Simmons Foods.
Laurel, Miss.-based Sand- erson Farms Inc. had two plants delisted. Sylvest Farms of Montgomery, Ala., had one plant delisted.
Industry analysts estimate that the poultry plants banned this week constitute about 10 percent of U. S. production capacity, though the ban is unlikely to further depress domestic chicken prices, which have been sliding since early September on high inventories.
The price of breast portions fell 22 percent in a month and a half, and leg quarters — the favorite chicken meat in Russia — decreased 11 percent.
Paul Aho, an economist at Connecticut-based Poultry Perspective, a consulting firm, said the lower domestic chicken prices, rather than the Russian ban, explains why stock values at large meat processors fell so sharply at the end of the week. Shares of meat processors steeply declined Friday amid a general market sell-off that led to a 367-point drop on the Dow Jones Industrial Average index.
Shares of Tyson Foods fell $ 1, or 5. 6 percent, to close at $ 16. 87 on Friday on the New York Stock Exchange. Sanderson’s stock fell 6 percent, and Pittsburg, Texasbased Pilgrim’s Pride, which had no plants delisted by Russia, lost 10. 4 percent of its share value.
Russia’s ban “is not good news, but it’s not horrible,” Aho said. “It’s the same game we’ve played for 20 years with them. We complain, and then they drop the bans.”
A Russian poultry import ban in 1996 led to negotiations between the two governments that resulted in the current trade rules. Russia banned all U. S. chicken products in 2002 after the discovery of salmonella in shipments, the Russian government said. Trade was re-established later that year.
However, it is still unclear why the Russians banned these poultry and pork plants this time.
This summer, a team from the Russian Veterinary and Phytosanitary Service audited the U. S. poultry industry.
“We find it curious that Russia would take such drastic measures in light of reported short supplies of meat and poultry in Russia,” Jim Sumner, president of the USA Poultry and Egg Export Council in Georgia, said in a statement.
Russia’s decision affected 10 poultry-processing plants, five cold warehouses that ship poultry products, four pork-slaughter operations, three pork-packaging facilities and one warehouse that ships pork products. A plant owned by Swift Pork in Worthington, Minn., and another owned by Hormel Foods in Austin, Minn., were affected by Russia’s decision. According to trade rules hammered out in 1996, Russia can periodically inspect and delist U. S. poultry plants, but the Food Safety and Inspection Service at the USDA can contact those plants and seek certification once guidelines are met, Toby Moore, spokesman for the poultry export council, explained. Russia also banned seven U. S. poultry plants in July.
_____________
October 21, 2007 -- Americans may be paying less for poultry this winter thanks to a chicken war that has broken out between the U.S. and Russia.
Russia, the largest customer for U.S. chicken producers, buying 30 percent of all exports, has de-listed 17 U.S. poultry plants - meaning that as of Nov. 1 those plants will no longer be able to export to Russia. The drop in exports is expected to create a glut of chicken and drive down prices.
The price drop is expected to hit chicken legs the most, according to Kenneth Zaslow, an analyst with BMO Capital Markets, who in a report Friday noted that Russians are partial to chicken legs.
As wholesale and retail prices drop, profits of chicken producers - like Tyson Foods, Pilgrim's Pride and Sanderson Farms - could see some downward pressure, Zaslow said in his report.
Zaslow said the move by Russia to de-list the plants - which comprise 17 percent of the U.S. poultry plants- appears to be a swipe at the Bush administration and made in hopes of bringing down the price of chicken in Russia, which have hit 45 cents a pound .
Where is our fearless leader...?
You are now an assistant. Make changes via manage and then ibox.
This is a free board.
Looks like SHY trying to pick up shares below $.30, thus SHY taking advantage of the tax loss selling
BID Orders Volume Price Range
......5.... 535,000... 0.030-0.295
ASK Price Range Volume Orders
......0.320-0.400... 239,000... 11
From yesterday and today, Research Capital appears to be doing most of the large buys...
Time Price Shares $ Change Buyer Seller
10:17 0.295 10,000 -0.005 Research Cap. Canaccord
10:05 0.295 92,000 -0.005 Research Cap. E*TRADE Sec.
10:05 0.295 5,000 -0.005 TD Securities E*TRADE Sec.
10:05 0.300 3,000 +0.000 RBC E*TRADE Sec.
09:59 0.300 24,000 +0.000 Research Cap. E*TRADE Sec.
09:59 0.300 26,000 +0.000 Research Cap. E*TRADE Sec.
09:59 0.300 2,000 +0.000 TD Securities E*TRADE Sec.
09:59 0.300 48,000 +0.000 Research Cap. E*TRADE Sec.
09:55 0.300 20,000 +0.000 Research Cap. E*TRADE Sec.
Great Basin's focus in on delivery of its two projects - Ferdi Dippenaar, CEO
In an interview on Radio 2000 @ 18:30 on 18 October 2007
[miningmx.com] -- GREAT Basin Gold (GBG) will not return to the market to raise more capital because it finances are in good shape, said CEO Ferdi Dippennar.
"We will not be asking our investors for more money, the company is in a good state," Dippennar said on the Moneyweb Power Hour, a week-nightly radio broadcast.
In April, GBG raised $149m towards the financing of it Hollister project in the US as well as the Burnstone project in South Africa.
"We looked at our cash position following the receipt of $47m from our black economic-empowerment partner in South Africa and we had in excess of $100m in cash, we are also going to see production coming out of Hollister soon and that would contribute towards increasing our cash flow, said Dippennar.
"We have raised more cash than we need so the focus is now on delivery at our mines."
The current gold price was also boding well for the company whose stock is rated the best performing gold stock in the world.
Commenting on safety, Dippennar said both mines were being developed for safety.
"We have made safety an issue at out mines, they are designed for safety, but mining companies also have to instill the culture of safety at their operations," said Dippennar.
Safety is in the spotlight in South Africa, with each death leading to mines being temporarily closed by the government as it pushes for compliance with health and safety laws.
central bank gold sales
on schedule
http://www.drivehq.com/file/df.aspx/publish/amarksp/PublicFolder/cbgoldsales.jpg
China's Grain and Sugar Import Quotas to Remain Unchanged in 2008
By David Harman
10 Oct 2007 at 09:30 AM GMT-04:00
SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- Grain import quotas for 2008 will remain unchanged from this year's level, according to a National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) statement issued to domestic trading firms yesterday.
Corn import quotas have been set at 7.2 million tonnes for 2008, 60% of which will supply state-owned trading firms. Wheat import quotas have been set at 9.64 million tonnes, 90% of which will supply state-owned firms, and rice import quotas have been set at 5.32 million tonnes, unchanged from this year.
"Not all the corn import quotas were used up last year, despite favorable tax rates for corn imported within the quota system. This was mainly due to international corn prices being higher than domestic prices. In addition, steady domestic corn production in recent years has made trading firms unwilling to import large amounts of corn," a Shanghai Continent Futures Co. Ltd. agricultural analyst, named Yang Fan, told Interfax today.
Corn spot prices in south China's Guangdong Province currently stand at around RMB 1,750 ($232.78) per tonne, ranking the highest in China. In comparison, the CIF (Cost Insurance and Freight) price for corn imported from the United States ranges from $292.65 per tonne to $325.90 per tonne, while the Argentinean CIF price is as high as $345.86 per tonne.
Corn futures closed slightly lower after daytime fluctuations on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) today, with the most traded 2008 May contract falling RMB 3 ($0.40) to close at RMB 1,661 ($220.95) per tonne after bottoming out at RMB 1,655 ($220.15) per tonne. Turnover is quiet in the spot market at the moment.
"Corn prices are consolidating after the big tumble in previous trading days, and the strong rebound of neighboring soy futures has also supported the corn market," a Daye Futures Co. Ltd. analyst, named Zhang Xiangdong, said.
Wheat futures extended their rally on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) on Wednesday, with the most traded 2008 May contract rising 1.30% to close at RMB 2,025 ($269.64).
After a month of downward movement since early September, Zhengzhou wheat futures have finally recovered some ground. Moreover, if the May contract exceeds the resistant 10-day moving average line, it will challenge the target level of RMB 2,060 ($274.30), said commodity analyst Chen Yike from Zhongtian Futures.
Wu Bangyang, a Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant analyst, commented that wheat and rice import quotas were also not used up this year, due to successive bumper harvests in recent years.
Sugar import quotas for 2008 will remain unchanged from this year's level of 1.945 million tonnes, according to a National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) statement issued to domestic trading firms yesterday.
The NDRC commented that 70% of the import quotas will be allocated to state-run enterprises.
"Next year's sugar import quotas will remain unchanged from 2007 levels, and this should be more than enough to meet China's demand, especially considering the potential for the domestic sugar harvest in the 2007/2008 sugar season," a Tonlian Futures sugar analyst, named Li Tiantian, told Interfax today.
According to a forecast quoted by the Ministry of Agriculture, China's sugar output will reach a record 14 million tonnes in the 2007/2008 season, surpassing the 12 million tonnes produced during the 2006/2007 season.
China's annual sugar imports usually linger around 1 million tonnes, which includes around 400,000 tonnes of sugar imported from Cuba due in part to political factors.
Commentary
Domestic demand is picking up with last season’s sales going very smoothly. Unlike the previous season, there was little need for authorities to stockpile excess. This coming season will require further strong growth in domestic demand, and there will be some reliance upon the Olympic factor to help boost sales.
© Interfax-China 2007
Recent production drop has been caused by Allen Ranch well being shut in. I estimate "normal" Allen Ranch production should be over 500 MCF/d each quarter (i.e. substantially more than 257 MCF/d reported last quarter) for the next several years.
central bank gold sales
Switzerland announces 113 tonnes
Sweden announced 9.4 up until 9/15.
http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/reference/pre_20070928/source/pre_20070928.en.pdf
thus 122.4 tonnes in non CBGA Banks
Add my 358 tonnes from ECB current year model, I come up with total sales of 480 tonnes, or 20 tonnes short.
central bank gold sales
http://www.drivehq.com/folder/p2642638/188584940.aspx
141 tonnes behind schedule, BUT does not include the Swiss and other non-CBGA bank sales.
estimate Swiss/other banks purchased about 110 tonnes, so my guess is European Central Banks sold about 470 tonnes of their 500 tonne maximum (i.e. 30 tonnes behind schedule).
This week only 1.1 tonnes sold PLUS we actually had one European Central Bank buying some gold coins...
"as well as the sale of gold by one Eurosystem central bank (consistent with the Central Bank Gold Agreement of 27 September 2004) and a net purchase of gold coin by another Eurosystem central bank."
I give up, what is this a chart of...?
Yes, Hollister does not require a gold mill/processsing facilities. GBN will contract out the gold processing facilities and simply haul the gold ore via truck. Plenty of excess mill capacity along Carlin Trend (everybody built a separate mill). So best IRR results from toll milling the Hollister ore.
If those takeover rumors are true, then I would expect this to occur before year end. Maybe Hollister is sold and the proceeds used to develop Burnstone is a possibility, personally I prefer GBN keeping both mines.
want something funnier than Jim Rogers, try this...
http://www.break.com/index/the-front-fell-off.html
Well I know where Marc is but where's Frank?
Marc Faber
http://www.investorcalendar.com/IC/ClientPage.asp?ID=120581
GIM Charts - Templeton Global Income Fund
Top Chart = GIM
Middle Chart = NAV of GIM
Bottom Chart GIM Premium/Discount
Well, Tour de France is over so about time for Frank to begin posting again...
Yes, no commodities. Like DBA for commodity exposure, my largest position.
Do not have position in MOO, but if stock market gets whacked good in Sept/Oct, then likely will take a position.
Looking to buy TSN, which Don Coxe has spoken highly of with exposure to livestock (beef chicken pork). Coxe believes TSN can pass on the increased costs to end consumer at higher profit margin. TSN got whacked real good on their latest financials, certainly was not passing on their increased grain costs this last quarter... Nonetheless, going forward I believe TSN is a good investment, may buy position if it hits support at below $18
am waiting for a pullback in MOO, and am watching the premium/discount to NAV.
http://www.vaneck.com/index.cfm?cat=220&cGroup=ETF&showit=Prices&LN=3¤tLN=%201
MOO & Jim Rogers
MOO
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=35365
__________
Jim Rogers
Commodity Online
MUMBAI: World’s leading commodity investment expert Jim Rogers says India and China will drive the commodity prices though global stock markets have been hit by the subprime and credit crunch crisis.
The credit crunch brought about by the problems in the American subprime mortgage market has hit the prices of oil and industrial and precious metals, like copper, nickel and gold.
But Rogers says fear of a possible global meltdown will not affect agriculture/commodities market.
“There is basically only one safe haven left: the agricultural market, also called the soft commodities,” Rogers, who is called the world’s most famous ‘commodity guru.’
According to him, commodities like wheat, corn, soybeans, cocoa and sugar will not be hit by the subprime market problems.
“Buying futures on these individual products enables people to partly hedge their 'shopping' against inflation,” he pointed out.
He said the increasing prosperity in China and India for instance is one of the driving forces of agricultural prices. “Even if the United States of America was to go bankrupt, another three billion people from China and India would still drive the demand for food,” Rogers said.
This is also one of the reasons why soft commodities are less vulnerable to the current problems than other investments. Not only have hedge funds and, to a certain extent, some investment banks, like the German IKB and the French BNP Paribas, been forced to bail out, but also speculative positions in the oil and metal market, he said.
Rogers said there is another important factor that is putting pressure on agricultural products: the increasing demand for biofuels.
“Sugar (cane) can profit from this development, since sugar is the primary commodity for ethanol. Nowadays, the relative value of sugar in comparison to oil, because of the year to date drop of nearly 20 per cent, is very low,” the investment expert remarked.
drive commodity prices: Jim Rogers
Commodity Online
MUMBAI: World’s leading commodity investment expert Jim Rogers says India and China will drive the commodity prices though global stock markets have been hit by the subprime and credit crunch crisis.
The credit crunch brought about by the problems in the American subprime mortgage market has hit the prices of oil and industrial and precious metals, like copper, nickel and gold.
But Rogers says fear of a possible global meltdown will not affect agriculture/commodities market.
“There is basically only one safe haven left: the agricultural market, also called the soft commodities,” Rogers, who is called the world’s most famous ‘commodity guru.’
According to him, commodities like wheat, corn, soybeans, cocoa and sugar will not be hit by the subprime market problems.
“Buying futures on these individual products enables people to partly hedge their 'shopping' against inflation,” he pointed out.
He said the increasing prosperity in China and India for instance is one of the driving forces of agricultural prices. “Even if the United States of America was to go bankrupt, another three billion people from China and India would still drive the demand for food,” Rogers said.
This is also one of the reasons why soft commodities are less vulnerable to the current problems than other investments. Not only have hedge funds and, to a certain extent, some investment banks, like the German IKB and the French BNP Paribas, been forced to bail out, but also speculative positions in the oil and metal market, he said.
Rogers said there is another important factor that is putting pressure on agricultural products: the increasing demand for biofuels.
“Sugar (cane) can profit from this development, since sugar is the primary commodity for ethanol. Nowadays, the relative value of sugar in comparison to oil, because of the year to date drop of nearly 20 per cent, is very low,” the investment expert remarked.
jitters hold up Great Basin deal
David McKay
Posted: Wed, 29 Aug 2007
[miningmx.com] -- A BID for Great Basin Gold (GBG), the Toronto and Johannesburg listed gold exploration company, has been held up by market jitters related to the world’s credit problems.
A source close to the negotiations - which may involve a major US gold mining company, such as Barrick Gold or Newmont Mining – said both sides were waiting for order to return to the market before proceeding.
“Share prices are under pressure and so Great Basin doesn’t want to sell at its current share price level while the buyer isn’t keen on using its shares either.
“If there’s a cash offer on the table, maybe the bidder is wondering whether other things couldn’t be done with the cash instead,” the source said.
Great Basin’s share price has pulled back sharply on the Toronto bourse, dropping from a peak of C$3.25 in July to C$2.15/share on August 28.
“The unofficial word is that it’s about negotiating price,” a source said about talks between GBG and its suitor. “Stock prices have been trading at well below net asset value or net present values.”
The credit fears which have affected the market across the board began with the sub-prime mortgage sector which gives higher risk loans to people with poor credit histories. Sub-prime default levels rose to record highs in the US this year as mortgage rates increased.
This has raised fears credit availability could be hampered in the broader market in the US and globally.
Ferdi Dippenaar, CEO of GBG, declined to comment. But he was confident the gold price would help improve market conditions. “I think it [the gold price] is going to breakout and the reverse the current bearish trend,” he said.
Miningmx reported on July 10 that a US firm was cricling GBG wanting to buy the company’s Nevada-based project, Hollister, while floating off the African prospects, including the R1.4bn Burnstone project in South Africa.
The Hollister Block, currently the subject of a feasibility study by GBG, could have production of about 150,000 oz/year by 2009. The property is surrounded by properties owned by Barrick and Newmont.
“There’s been quite a bit of interest shown in the company, particularly as people understand the North American assets,” Dippenaar told Miningmx in June. “You try hold off the suitors until you’ve done the feasibility and resource statements to see the value.”
However, he said on August 15 that a potential deal with Aflease Gold, a Johannesburg listed company, was “completely off the table at this stage”.
“We have no debt, no hedge, we have cash, and we can build the project. If ever there was a clean company you could do something with, it’s Great Basin Gold, but it’s also the vehicle we want to grow the company with,” he said.
“But if there’s a good offer showing value and shareholders like it, I’d recommend it. I’m young enough to start all over again.”
thanks much john. so appears there are no near term producers in Canada...?
Exactly "The problem is this crises has pulled the whole jr market down."
FWIW, I have no position in ISX or the other juniors. Perused the ISX technical report last night. Phase 1 complete in 1 year and Phase 2 at least another year to complete. Would appear production is at least 4 years away. I like long term prospects for potash, but I can discern no competitive advantage ISX deposit has over other deposits.
Are any of these juniors in production or about to be in production within the next year?:
MGO down 4 buks from highs
ALM down 1.20 from highs
Maa down .65 cents from highs
ISX down from 2.70 to close .94 today
Blr down from 1.50 to .70 close
Fos down from 1.33 to .71
central bank gold sales
now 100 tonnes behind schedule
http://www.drivehq.com/file/df.aspx/publish/amarksp/cbgoldsales.jpg%20Publish/cbgoldsales.jpg
Pescod summarizes Coxe...
After the turmoil in the markets for the last couple of
days and weeks, there’s nothing one needs more than just
a bit of hand holdings and there’s probably no one better
at it than Don Coxe. As far as we’re concerned, BMO’s
Coxe, who writes Basic Points monthly, just did a weekly
conference call on Friday that certainly made us feel a
little bit better and we thoroughly enjoyed his take on the
market.
It was interesting for his general overall take as he suggests
that for much of the last few years, Main Street has
not been involved in the stock market at all (at least in the
United States) and instead, the main participants have
been Wall Street and the newly minted billionaires and
other rich types. All of a sudden he suggests, that it’s the
new rich that are suddenly needing big help from the
Feds. He also points out that never have we seen a crash
that has ended something significant if Main Street wasn’t
involved.
As far as the market which has seen commodity prices
hurt, he notes that commodity stocks have been hurt a lot
more than commodity prices and he suggests that when
the rally does comes (whenever that is) he expects commodity
stocks to lead the way.
All of a sudden though, there is a sector of the commodities
that he is very much in favor of and that’s agriculture
and he points to interesting price increases in
products such as wheat and dairy products.
As far as oil, he points out that oil inventories remain
lean and that big oil is simply not replacing its production.
He predicts that oil over the next while will be somewhere
between $55.00 and $75.00 and while he is not a believer
in $100.00 oil, he is a huge believer in the oil sands and
points to the recent takeover of Western Oil Sands. The
oil sands remain one of his favorite places.
As far as natural gas, it was interesting to hear his comment
there, as he points out that drilling in the lower 48
States has created a surplus of the commodity, but he
suggests that one normal winter could mop up that surplus.
Once again, he suggests when the rally resumes,
commodities will lead the way, but we (like him) wonder
just when that starts. Hopefully, we assume, when people
get back to work sometime this fall.
Swiss are a little sneaky since they usually sell gold futures 3 months to 1 year old to get higher POG, then deliver into those futures... That was their past modus operandi, thus 35 metric tonnes in July pretty significant (>10%) given their total is 250 tonnes by Sept 09.
On vacation for past 2 weeks and will get back Monday, will have time to analyze the situation a bit more when I get back...
Martin M sighting...
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20070731.RGOLD31/TPStory/Business#
FWIW, my comments on SI:
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=23751018&personmsgnum=1
central bank gold sales
YTD actual sales are now 339 tonnes versus expected 418 tonnes. About 79 tonnes behind scheduled sales.
http://amarks.homestead.com/CBGold.html
Gold Price - I predict $3 Million per gram!! Well above anyone elses prediction I have seen. Those looking for only $1,000 per oz gold are whimps.
Moreover, I am already proven right:
"Producers will get $3 million Zimbabwean dollars per gram, compared to $350,000 Zimbabwean dollars before the change, Central Bank Governor Gideon Gono said in a statement. Gono said the new price was effective immediately."
Oh, did I forget to mention those were $3M Zimbabwean Dollars in the heading, mere attention-grabbing oversight...
Wed, 11 Jul 07
Ferdi's still young...
Posted: Tue, 10 Jul 2007
[miningmx.com] -- BEFORE the first ounce of gold is poured at Great Basin Gold’s projects, the TSX-listed company could be the target of corporate action that would carve off the Nevada project and leave the Burnstone project as the possible base for a merger in South Africa.
There is interest from a US-based mining company in Great Basin’s Hollister project in Nevada, which leaves the South African development project at Burnstone to be merged with other South African assets of a similar ilk.
North American companies have historically shown a deep-seated aversion to mining gold in South Africa because of the poor safety record on the ultra-deep mines, which are also expensive. Miningmx believes this makes it unlikely any North American suitor for Great Basin would keep the R2.6bn, 254,000 oz/year Burnstone project.
So far just R800m has been spent acquiring Burnstone and exploring it. A further R1.8bn will be spent on the decline system and plant. An application for a new-order mining right will be made at the end of July and it normally takes about a year to work its way through the system if all goes well.
A logical fit with Burnstone would be Uranium One’s 68%-held subsidiary Aflease Gold, which is developing the Modder East and Sub Nigel mines on the East Rand of the Wits Basin. Great Basin has a listing on the Johanneburg bourse.
“At the moment we are reviewing all our strategic options, but our main focus is on completing the feasibility study at Hollister and getting that into production,” Great Basin CEO Ferdi Dippenaar said when asked by Miningmx whether Aflease Gold would be a desirable addition to the company.
“In three to six months we will review our strategic options,” he said.
He declined any comment on speculation that a potential buyer is conducting a due diligence of the Hollister asset, which recently upgraded its gold resources to two million ounces.
Uranium One CEO Neal Froneman has said his company will exit Aflease Gold, which is a non-core asset. There are additional gold assets within Uranium One that can be vended into Aflease Gold to give the junior gold company critical mass, he has told Miningmx.
Froneman has categorically ruled out a transaction with Pamodzi Gold, which acquired Bema’s Petrex mine, which is close to Modder East and Sub-Nigel. He argued that the assets would make a better fit with a company that has a similar strategy of mining shallow, low technical risk projects.
It was long speculated that Petrex would form part of some corporate activity with Aflease Gold on the East Rand, but Pamodzi Gold acquired an onerous hedge book and deep-level, historically under-capitalised East Rand assets when it took on Petrex.
Froneman said at a media briefing this week the Aflease Gold transaction could be completed this year via either a merger or a reverse takeover.
Of course, if the transaction is with Great Basin, the Hollister transaction will have to be completed first otherwise the valuations for Great Basin will change, potentially frightening off the American buyer.
Great Basin has set up a defence against a hostile takeover, forcing it to become a friendly offer, and gives Great Basin the chance of inviting other possible suitors to make a rival bid.
“There’s been quite a bit of interest shown in the company, particularly as people understand the North American assets,” Dippenaar told Miningmx a month ago. “You try hold off the suitors until you’ve done the feasibility and resource statements to see the value.”
“We have no debt, no hedge, we have cash, and we can build the project. If ever there was a clean company you could do something with, it’s Great Basin Gold, but it’s also the vehicle we want to grow the company with,” he said.
“But if there’s a good offer showing value and shareholders like it, I’d recommend it. I’m young enough to start all over again.”
martin m sighting...
According to the Gold Monitor, gold should be about $638 today, “which is also not ‘inspiring’.” The report estimates a probability weighted average of $677/oz in Q3 and $691/oz in Q4. In 2008, the probability weighted average for all four quarters is placed at $733/oz.
“Our near-term bias is neutral and our long-term bias is bullish,” said Martin Murenbeeld, chief economist of the Dundee Group of Companies, publisher of the Gold Monitor. “We are in the summer doldrums - the ‘dog days’ of summer – and while volatility cannot be discounted we may not see much action until September.”
What oil sands stocks do you like currently and for the long term...? Reading this week's Coxe transcript, have determined I need more exposure here. Here's a list for your perusal:
Oil Sands Juniors:
UTS.TO (UEYCF.PK)
CLL.TO (CLLZF.PK)
BQI (formerly CWPC.OB)
SYN.TO (SYEYF.PK)
NPE.V
PFM.V
Larger Pure-plays in Production
COS.UN (COSWF.PK)
OST.UN (OSDSF.PK)
WTO.TO (WTOIF.PK)
SU.TO (SU)
Central Bank Gold Sales...
This is quarterly readjustment week, which I account for correctly, I believe. Even allowing for 3.61% decline in Euro Gold price (Euro 498 to Euro 480), there were substantial gold sales this past week, to the tune of 610 Million Euros, by far the largest sale to date. Total decline was Euro 7.1 Billion, but 6.5 Billion was from readjustment, so 610 Million Euro was the implied sales for last week.
see chart below and chart with comments via link...
http://amarks.homestead.com/CBGold.html