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NICARAGUA Politics
Under Bolaños, democracy has prevailed
BY MARIFELI PEREZ-STABLE
marifeli@starpower.net
Nicaragua is now at the front line for democracy. The Sandinista Revolution ended when Nicaraguans elected Violeta Chamorro in 1990. It was a shining moment, but the light did not linger long. No wonder, we now say, given the country's history, riddled as it is with the sultanic Somozas and recurring U.S. interventions. Yet, maybe -- just maybe -- there might be a break in the clouds.
President Enrique Bolaños now looks to remain in office until the end of his term in January 2007. For a while, it seemed as if he would suffer the fate of more than a dozen Latin American presidents in the past two decades who have had their terms cut short by either social upheavals or allegations of wrongdoing. Bolaños, however, stood at the brink for other reasons.
In November 2004, Sandinista and Liberal legislators modified the constitution to restrict presidential powers. In 2000, Daniel Ortega and Arnoldo Alemán forged a pact that reined in all major institutions. Only the presidency remained beyond their reach.
All the same, Bolaños fought back. He challenged the Liberal-Sandinista infringement upon the executive power before the Central American Court of Justice, which ruled in his favor. The Nicaraguan Supreme Court -- a cog in the Ortega-Alemán cabal -- had earlier declared the changes constitutional and claimed sole jurisdiction on the matter. Nationwide protests soon followed, ostensibly, in reaction to price increases in public transportation and basic goods, but really intended to force the president's resignation.
Bolaños refused to oblige and, instead, appealed to the Organization of American States under the Democratic Charter. An OAS mission visited Nicaragua in May. Shortly thereafter, Secretary General José Miguel Insulza visited the country and charged Dante Caputo, an Argentine diplomat, as his personal representative there. In late September, Insulza sent Bolaños an emphatic letter urging negotiations and compromise sooner rather than later.
By mid-October, Bolaños and Ortega had defused the immediate crisis. The president would finish his term, the constitutional reforms would be frozen until he left office, the legislature would pass needed measures for the International Monetary Fund to release pending funds, and the Sandinistas would abstain from blocking the Central American Free Trade Agreement. After crying foul, the Liberals jumped on the bandwagon.
Alemán, no doubt, is the big loser. He will remain without amnesty and under house arrest. Let's remember that his brazen embezzlement of $100 million of public monies during his presidency is at the root of his personal troubles. Once inaugurated, Bolaños -- Alemán's vice president -- stunned the Liberals by launching an anti-corruption campaign that damned the former president.
At first the junior partner in el pacto (the pact), the Sandinistas subsequently gained the upper hand and have so retained it that Ortega sidelined the Liberals in his deliberations with Bolaños. Beware, nonetheless, the treacherous road of Nicaraguan politics! Ortega and Alemán may still embrace again.
The United States also played a part in defusing the immediate crisis. In early October, Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick visited Nicaragua and minced no words about the anti-Bolaños shenanigans. Caputo characterized Zoellick's visit as one with a ''harsh public message'' and ''behind-the-scene actions that greatly facilitated'' the mediation.
The crisis, however, is far from over. In November 2006, Nicaragua will hold presidential elections. The OAS, the Bush administration and, most important, Nicaraguans demand free and fair elections. All candidates -- including the mavericks Herty Lewites (Sandinista) and Eduardo Montealegre (Liberal) -- must be allowed to stand. Recent polls indicate that Ortega is running a distant third, with Lewites and Montealegre battling for first.
Whoever wins in a fair fight must be accepted by all. At the same time, all committed to Nicaraguan democracy must fight for truly free elections. The OAS has the Democratic Charter, which Bolaños invoked and Insulza skillfully applied. Zoellick's harsh facilitation may be the right stance for Washington. So would what U.S. OAS Ambassador John Maisto has called a ``relevant multilateralism.''
Ultimately, Nicaraguans bear responsibility for their country. Politicos must know that the time for sleaziness has passed. The citizenry must regain the voice expressed so eloquently in Violeta's election. If skulduggery prevails, international actors must be prepared to impose sanctions.
Even a partly cloudy day would, indeed, be good news for democracy in Nicaragua.
Marifeli Pérez-Stable is vice president for democratic governance at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, D.C.
Hi Louis, any comments on this article...
"Central banks
Posted: Fri, 09 Dec 2005
[miningmx.com] -- CENTRAL bank interest in gold could be giving an additional lift to the gold price, according to a commodities analyst quoted by the Financial Times.
"There is concerted buying by a significant buyer, and it could be a central bank," said Paul Merrick, vice president commodities at RBC Capital Markets. The 10% rise in the gold price in the past three weeks has not been accompanied by a significant lift in buying of Comex gold futures in New York, Merrick told the Financial Times. "This suggests that there could be another large buyer out there, as there is a concerted effort to buy on any dips in the prices," Merrick said.
Central banks have been net sellers of gold for the last 40 years, although there have been occasional purchases, the Financial Times said.
However, recent positive comments on gold by officials from Argentinian, Russian and South African central banks have given bullion traders hope that some banks may start buying again, the paper said. "
thanks Frank, how about EPM:
weekly chart, nice volume...
and how about my largest holding, EDV:
on the contrary, I admire your viewpoint ALL the time, albeit more when you are bullish on gold...
when you see potential weakness in gold/gold shares, rest assure I pay attention and trade accordingly, but I hold a core position in gold/gold shares always (although often during the past 24 months I wish I would listened to you more...!)
for instance, based upon your recent posts, I sold a bit of my recent EPM and AGI purchases yesterday and today. and be sure to advise when to unload the rest of my PAL...
Gold Chart (1981 to Present)
Jim Rogers on Gold
Can Gold Reach $900?
By Lindsay Williams
07 Dec 2005 at 11:14 AM EST
JOHANNESBURG (Business Day) -- Classic Business Day gets multi-billionaire Jim Rogers, former partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund, on the line about the performance of commodities in 2005, and the outlook for 2006.
LINDSAY WILLIAMS: Jim, can we maybe start with commodities that are most important to South Africa and Africa - the precious metals, and base metals. Even I am surprised by the way the gold price has behaved - I think it’s doubled in the last five years to $510 an ounce, and platinum was recently at 25.5-year highs, with silver also doing extremely well - what do you think the prospects are for this particular complex?
JIM ROGERS: I suggest you read my book where I explained how all this would be happening, and it’s going to get better - you haven’t seen anything yet. Copper needs to correct, some of these things need to correct – but the shortages of raw materials is going to get much worse over the next 10 to 15 years, and we’re going to have an unbelievable bull market. Even I – and I’m bullish – am going to be surprised! There’s been no major oil discovery anywhere in the world in over 35 years - oil fields are depleting. Most metals companies have not been exploring for metals, and certainly not opening many new mines - except for gold that’s continued to expand - but for most other metals people just haven’t done any exploration. Phelps Dodge - which is the second largest copper company in the world - has made a conscious decision not to open any new mines, they’re going to try to expand their old mines. This is going to cause problems down the road....
LINDSAY WILLIAMS: So if we break it down - you’re talking about copper, you’re talking about oil - but if we go back to the precious metals complex are they just going to tag along because of the inflationary consequences, or just tag along with the whole commodity bull market in general?
JIM ROGERS: You mean gold and silver?
LINDSAY WILLIAMS: Yes.
JIM ROGERS: Gold is certainly going to participate, but I think you’re going to make more money in other commodities - you will make more money in sugar or coffee than you will in gold, but I own some gold and some silver - we’re certainly going to make money in all of these things. In previous bull markets of any asset class - everything makes a new all-time high. That means gold has to go to at least $900, and silver has to go much higher if history is any guide to how bull markets have always worked....
LINDSAY WILLIAMS: I remember you speaking to us last time - I think it was maybe it was about nine months ago - you said perhaps the oil price had run a little bit too far, and you proved correct. It did go to $70 a barrel, but it’s back now at around about $60 - is there going to be a second or third wave on this particular commodity?
JIM ROGERS: Sure, oil will be well over $100 before it’s over - if history is any guide this bull market is going to last until around 2018, sometime between 2014 and 2022, and everything is going to go much higher. There has been no major oil discovery anywhere in the world in over 35 years - every oil field you know about is in decline. Somebody has to do something....
LINDSAY WILLIAMS: That’s the supply side of things – on the demand side of things in the past we’ve spoken a lot about China, and we’ve spoken about the U.S. economy as well - is the demand factor still a big one?
JIM ROGERS: Of course. I think most Chinese still don’t have electricity, most Indians still don’t have electricity - they’re going to get electricity even if those countries grow at a slow rate, and they’re certainly not going to rip out their electricity anymore than you’re going to rip out your electricity if things slow down - demand will continue to grow.
LINDSAY WILLIAMS: Is there any problem perhaps with the U.S. dollar when it comes to the dollar price of commodities - we’ve seen the gold, platinum, silver and copper prices and everything else dislocating from the strength of the U.S. dollar - does that mean that we should ignore the dollar’s strength and just buy commodities?
JIM ROGERS: The dollar is fundamentally very flawed, and it’s going to be a serious problem in the next five or 10 years - it’s having a big rally in 2005 for some technical reasons. It was beaten down in 2002, 2003 and 2004 and there’s a special tax incentive for American companies to bring their money back into the US this year - but that incentive ends this year, and so you will see the dollar resume it’s decline, and that is bullish for commodities, but that’s not the main reason commodities will be going up. The main reason is supply and demand are out of whack, but a weak currency like the dollar is going to help commodities.
LINDSAY WILLIAMS: What do you think about the implications for the other asset class - that being equities. We’re seeing the Dow Jones getting very close to 11,000 and everyone getting very enthusiastic. Ben Bernanke is coming in to take over the chairmanship of the U.S. Federal Reserve - what are your predictions for the financial markets?
JIM ROGERS: I’m not optimistic about the U.S. stock market in 2006. The economy will slow down, the market will slow down - the market has been flat for a couple of years now basically, and Ben Bernanke will be a disaster for the Federal Reserve. His solution to everything is to print money - so I’m not optimistic about the dollar, the stock market, the economy in the U.S. next year....
Is it my imagination or were you a founding member of the $700 club, LOL!!!
agree! "BTW I hope Frank is kind enough to throw me a bone when the time comes to buy. It seems to be one of the only ways I make any dough."
I made a good size bet on PAL, and sold a bunch to get my principal back and still have 33% riding... PAL was one of Frank's best plays since the days of Michael Soucie, that thrill seeker of torque!!
i bought some three days ago, timely decision...
I tried to convince Dippenaar to stay - Harmony CEO, Bernard Swanepoel
In an interview on 702 @ 18:00 on Tuesday, 6 December 2005
[miningmx.com] --FERDI Dippenaar, the outgoing marketing director of Harmony Gold, is ready for a new challenge, according to Harmony Gold CEO Bernard Swanepoel.
"I tried my best to convince him to stay with Harmony but he's ready for a new challenge and he's ready to run his own company," Swanepoel said. He was speaking on The World at Six, broadcast week nightly on Radio 702.
Dippenaar has resigned from Harmony in order to head up Canadian listed Great Basin Gold - a small exploration company with gold assets in South Africa.
"Harmony's been great to me but I've been given this opportunity to join Great Basin Gold," Dippenaar said. "It's a small company with big dreams," Dippenaar added. He was speaking on Radio 2000.
Dippenaar also said that Great Basin Gold would consider a South African listing in the future. "The fact is that there will be a mine in South Africa. It tends to be a bit of a logical decision, to actually go and do that
here is my understanding...
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=8772864
My understanding is that Marrone is a bit premature in regard to his statement, unless you read it carefully. See statement below.
As soon as Yamana actually pays the cash "loan" for San Andres, then and only then does Yamana have legal rights to San Andres. If by some miracle, another competitive bid is forthcoming it must be done prior to Yamana paying cash "loan" for San Andres. The San Andres loan MUST be closed by December 20, so if a competitive bid is forthcoming it must be done within the next 14 days.
Acquirer would still have to pay $1.8M break cost and fund the deal for San Andres by Dec 20, but break cost really is not very material if another company is truly interested. Will be interesting to see whether a new bid is forthcoming, but most gold majors and intermediates are generally NOT very interested in acquiring mines with under 100K ounces of annual production.
My further understanding is that Canaccord effectively held a gun to RNC's head. Canaccord would not give RNC a bought deal on the required US$22.5M financing, thus would not guarantee that the funds could even be raised. Canaccord was apparently alluding that a full warrant rather than 1/2 warrant might be required to finance the deal. RNC was effectively at risk for not being able to close the San Andres acquisition by Dec 20 as required because Canaccord would not "guarantee" they could raise the required $22.5M at a price certain, if at all.
Thus, my opinion is Canaccord acted in an unprofessional manner. Just my opinion.
_____________________
Marrone statement:
"We think San Andres can justify the whole transaction," Peter Marrone, Yamana's chief executive, said on a call on Monday. "We were quite harsh on the other assets when we looked at them. So we carved them back to pretty small values. San Andres is the asset here that generates the most value. Yamana will exercise RNC's existing option to buy the other 25 percent of the mine before the deal closes and said it could still acquire the mine if the bid for RNC fails."
Central Bank Gold Sales Chart updated
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=8327291
about 8.57 tonnes sold this week
102.50 acutal sold YTD vs. 96.15 maximum expected to be sold
central banks still a bit ahead of schedule
thanks to basserdan for reminding me to update this week..., forgot about it...
From: DetectiveT
CKG UPDATE
Randy called me back less than half hour after I left a message!
1.More Drill Rigs.
In La Gitana they do not have the road network yet to justify a second rig. The road network apparently is the bottleneck. Keep in mind( as JRHANA alluded to) the terrain at LG is very steep and hilly. The weather has been very rainy with some washouts, but now much better. None the less road construction and drill pads in LG has been accelerated.
*Looking at getting a second rig for mid to late Q1 06.*
Good news is that rigs are available in a few weeks unlike a year ago when they were non existent.
2.JVs
Bad weather prevented two parties from coming out to do DD in Oct/Nov. Some DD will now be going on in Dec and Jan by two parties on one of these three properties:Cucaracha Dorada(drill ready now), Cecilia(needs testing, sampling and geophysics all done in next 3or 4 months), Calvera(just needs magnetic surveying done by xmas and then drill ready). I think he said that there is a good chance of a significant JV agreement. He does not want to JV all of these so that he can add blue sky potential for the take over suitor.
Work on these 3 JV possibilities are a second priority after LG. But they all have near term completion dates.
3.Drilling plans
On going drilling at LG.
Regionally the best of Pena Longa?, Santa Maria and Pena Blanca will be drilled in 2006.
4.Early Regional work
EL Volcan- "Really prospective" (I think he said that there was previous primitive mining done here?) but so early and no point in doing a deal(JV?) with little geo. work. Will send 2 or 3 geologists to do some reconnaisance work to identify targets.
EL Pato- more a silver property and "very marketable and will be one of the first to go"( sale? or jv?)
(This may have the primitive mining instead of El Volcan.)
5. Nicaragua
Have 6 properties.
One CKG property SURROUNDS very prospective land whose ownership is in a legal dispute. CKG is waiting for the legal dispute NOT involving CKG (ie between 2 other parties) to get settled first before pursuing this property.
I did not ask about the RBC or BMO seller or the style of news release. Maybe someone else can and post on this.
***Finally Randy welcomed my calls in the future and he said that he would try to return the call with in a day or so. This guy cares enough (and is cheap enough)!)to answer shareholder calls himself.
My take?
Lots happening and lots more significant news in the next few months.
It think shareholders need a bit more patience (several weeks/months) before they will see the start of the next BIG up leg in CKG.
I already own lots of CKG(bought last at 3.80) and will buy more at 3.50 to 3.70 if someone is stupid enough to sell it down there! If you do not own any then at 4$ it is an even better buy now ie less risky and more prospective and more developed then the last time it was at this price in the summer of 2004!
Cheers,
DT
Nicaragua Politics/Ortega...
matters less these days, but I really find Nicaragua politics fascinating...
"A time to step aside
by Silvio Sirias
One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish a dictatorship.
George Orwell
We grew up in a situation where we didn't know the meaning of freedom or justice, and therefore we didn't know a thing about democracy.
Daniel Ortega
I believe that all of us ought to retire relatively young.
Fidel Castro, Playboy Interview - January 1967
I was living in Nicaragua during the elections of 2001. One afternoon, Daniel Ortega, the perennial presidential candidate of the Sandinista party, stopped by San Marcos, Carazo, the town where I was residing, as part of his campaign stump. By then I had been in Nicaragua for two and a half years and I had listened to countless stories, from people in all walks of life, about la Revolución Sandinista and how it had fallen far short of everyone’s expectations.
Don’t get me wrong --- I’m not a right-winger. Far from it. Throughout the 1980s, when the Sandinistas governed Nicaragua, I was an ardent supporter of la Revolución and the ideals I believed it stood for. The problem was, however, that, to borrow a Spanish expression, I was watching the bulls from a distance, as I had not lived a single day under Sandinista rule.
When I returned to Nicaragua, after a nearly 20-year absence, I heard numerous heartrending, as well as shocking, testimonies about life under the Sandinistas. These made me feel naïve, and betrayed. It was the loss of my political innocence.
There is one thing, nevertheless, for which Daniel Ortega and the rest of the Sandinista leadership deserve credit: when they lost the 1990 election to Violeta Chamorro, they became the first political party in Nicaraguan history to peacefully hand over the presidency.
But they didn’t give up power.
“We shall govern from below,” they announced upon leaving office.
In the years since, Daniel Ortega has become a master at making behind-the-scenes deals. And, although he lost another two elections --- in 1995 to Arnoldo Alemán, and in 2001 to Enrique Bolaños --- he remains a formidable powerbroker. He also has demonstrated remarkable adeptness to forging alliances with those who were once his mortal enemies, such as Arnoldo Alemán, if he deems that such a union will increase his clout.
But he is also responsible for the decline of the Sandinista party.
The once gallant young comandantes, who in the 1980s made dashing, romantic revolutionary figures, are now veteran statesmen who became wealthy during what Nicaraguans have termed “La Piñata” --- the frantic repartition of government funds and confiscated property that the Sandinista leaders shared among themselves after losing the 1990 election. In fact, Ortega’s current alliance with Alemán and his cronies is, in large part, a ploy by the old Sandinista guard to protect themselves from being held accountable for the money and property they made their own only days before handing over the presidency.
At present, the Sandinista party is the refuge of a small cadre of outdated and increasingly irrelevant revolutionaries. If the party is to survive, the old guard needs to stop being enamored with power and step aside to allow a new generation to emerge as leaders. But that is not likely to happen. Many once notable Sandinistas, such as Sergio Ramírez, Gioconda Belli, Ernesto Cardenal, Dora María Tellez, the Mejía Godoy brothers, and even Humberto Ortega, Daniel’s brother, disavowed Ortega and his associates long ago because of the dictatorial control they exercise over the party. Because of this, in the eyes of the vast majority of Nicaraguans, the Sandinista leadership, which is fiercely loyal to Ortega, has lost all credibility. The polls clearly prove this.
During the 2001 presidential campaign, as I stood in the plaza of San Marcos listening to Daniel Ortega’s speech, I was struck by the poverty of his language and by his lack of imagination. He bored the small crowd of five hundred that showed up to listen to him --- out of a population of twenty-five thousand --- with rhetoric full of old, worn-out clichés from the days of La Revolución. Moreover, his delivery absolutely lacked charisma.
At the end, his presentation received lukewarm applause. A handful of ardent Sandinistas shouted slogans to which those present responded half-heartedly. Personally, I was disappointed. I expected that after three decades of public speaking Ortega would’ve become a great orator. But from the podium he is light years behind his mentor, Fidel Castro.
Today, bolstered by the prominence of Hugo Chávez, the Venezuelan maverick, Daniel believes that by climbing aboard the Latin American populist bandwagon he has a chance of making a comeback. High-ranking US officials --- who once more are showing their ignorance regarding the sentiments of the Nicaraguan people --- have crossed the line: interfering, yet again, in the affairs of this Central American nation by openly expressing their opposition to this.
What Washington doesn’t seem to get is that Daniel Ortega doesn’t stand a chance of regaining the presidency.
Everyone in Nicaragua knows that the former Comandante de la Revolución has run out of things to say.
Silvio Sirias is the author of Bernardo and the Virgin (Northwestern University Press-Latino Voices Series). He resides in Panama. For more information visit www.silviosirias.com"
Dippenaar quits Harmony [to GBN]
David McKay
Posted: Tue, 06 Dec 2005
[miningmx.com] -- FERDI Dippenaar, co-founder of Harmony Gold in its current form, and long-standing lieutenant to Bernard Swanepoel, CEO of the South African firm, is to quit the company in order to head up Canadian listed Great Basin Gold.
"We've known for a little time and we've been able to put in some succession planning," said Swanepoel in an interview.
"But it's sad to lose a personal friend of so many years. It sounds like a good opportunity however," said Swanepoel.
The departure of Dippenaar, long regarded a fixture at Harmony, will raise questions on the long-term intentions of Swanepoel.
"It's the end of an era," said Steve Shepherd, an analyst at JP Morgan. "Where does this put Bernard? He's now on his own so to speak," Shepherd said.
"The old guard has gone," said an analyst who declined to be named. "This leaves Bernard isolated at the top," he said.
Great Basin Gold is owned by the Hunter Dickinson group and owns a number of gold properties including the Burnstone prospect, a project near Harmony's Evander Gold Mines.
Great Basin Gold said on its website that it was conducting a feasibility study to produce 200,000 to 400,000 oz/year of gold from Burnstone. It also owns a property called the Ivanhoe project in Nevada, US. Harmony also announced the resignation of Rick Menell, non-executive director at the gold firm.
Free news alerts: click here to subscribeMenell will focus his energies on TEAL Mining & Exploration, a junior mining firm with African projects and recently listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
"Ferdi and I have been working together since we were at Beatrix mine in 1994. The rest is history.
"I will miss his energy and work ethic which has been magnificent. But I think Great Basin have been pestering him for some time," Swanepoel said.
Bonanza has never had high PP reserves. Bonanza has always just proved up enough ounces for the next couple of years throughout most of its history. It has always found adequate reserves for the past 50 years and my impression is finding future reserves for the next 50 years would not be a problem.
"The current operations have been in continuous production since the 1940s and have seen production of more than two million ounces during that period."
Bonanza valuation appears low
Bonanza Mine Acquisition by RNC Management
Annual Production …… 30,000
POG …… $475.00
Cash Cost …… $336.00
Margin …… $139.00
Annual Profit …… $4,170,000
Payback per month …… $347,500
Acquisition Price (excluding debt) …… $500,000
Payback Months …… 1.44
See stockhouse posts, beginning here...
http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/viewmessage.asp?no=10886268&t=0&all=0&TableID=0
review next 12 messages for interesting comments, by clicking "Next Message".
What makes you think Nicaragua is not a stable democracy...? Nicaragua has held 3 free and fair/democratic elections. At 6 year presidential term, that is for the past 18 years. Yes, Brazil may be a better country risk than Nicaragua/Honduras, but not a substantially better country risk.
Sorry if I mis-interpreted your comments on Sandanistas incorrectly:
"I guess I still remember those Sandinista-Contra days, and for the record, I supported the Sandinistas at the time :)."
as to your current political leanings.
For the record, my opinion is free and fair elections are the best means to achieve sustainable and responsible economic development. My cynical viewpoint is that you are often just replacing one bunch of political crooks with another at each election cycle. But the voters get to choose which bunch of crooks to vote in each presidential election cycle, and with time you will likely vote in better and better politicians who are less corrupt and will provide better sustainable economic development for your country. With free and fair elections, the voters have to live with whoever they vote for and can change their vote in the next election. Slowly but surely, democracy develops, better candidates seek office, and voters will elect better politicians. With 18+ years of free & fair local and national elections, Nicaragua appears to be well on its way toward democracy.
(do not try to nitpick this somewhat cynical view, you likely understand the gist of my comments, and sorry for any mis-interpretation of your prior post as I now understand the gist of your remarks regarding support of Sandanistas).
Best wishes to you as well.
Marks
Yamana will be well served by this acquisition as well, since it will not have virtually all its country risk in Brazil (YRI does have exploration/development projects in Argentina but is signficantly exposed to Brazil, so RNC will help diversify YRI).
As for Sandanistas, they are no longer 22-25 year old, poor revolutionaries but rather 45-50 year olds driving Mercedes who now have substantial vested interests in capitalism... (i.e. Sandanistas now own substantial business and land investments in Nicaragua, they have been co-opted by capitalism, IMO).
You best reassess your current support of the the Sandanistas and find a new group of Nicaraguan revolutionaries to support if you believe capitalism is not the best means to achieve economic development...!!@!@!!
Do not sell at C$.67 tomorrow, IMO, which is implied value of RNC at .12 shares of YRI.
The Bonanza mine is not included in the transaction:
"The acquisition will include the exploration properties surrounding the Hemco/Bonanza Mine exploitation concession in Nicaragua currently held by a subsidiary of RNC but not the exploitation concession containing the Hemco/Bonanza Mine which will be sold to a RNC management group, subject to Yamana having the option to re-acquire the mine within a period of two years."
My interpretation is RNC will have to offer shareholders fair and reasonable compensation for Bonanza mine which a RNC management group is taking over. At a minimum, this should be C$.10 more than C$.67 so buy on the open if RNC trading at C$.67 would seem viable strategy if my interpretation is correct...
Yamana may well be buying more shares tomorrow at the open to increase its ownership at bargain prices...?
Yamana to acquire RNC-Disappointing news to me unless...
Disappointing news, IMO, unless a bidding war is started on RNC. RNC shares are worth US$1.00 minimum, IMO. US$.58 is well below what I would have expected and hopefully a bidding war is initiated to get Yamana to raise this offer.
http://ca.us.biz.yahoo.com/bw/051204/20051204005037.html?.v=1
Yamana to acquire RNC-Disappointing news to me unless...
Disappointing news, IMO, unless a bidding war is started on RNC. RNC shares are worth US$1.00 minimum, IMO. US$.58 is well below what I would have expected and hopefully a bidding war is initiated to get Yamana to raise this offer.
http://ca.us.biz.yahoo.com/bw/051204/20051204005037.html?.v=1
Read the assumptions and compare to sustainable production chart. My production ounces and cash costs are below management guidance in 2006. My production ounces are slightly below in 2007-09 guidance but my cash costs still remain higher than management guidance.
Of the $22.5M PP, at least $5.5M will be available for Panama capex (insiders taking shares & NSR royalty due over time).
A Draft Report on my RNC mine visit to Nicaragua can be obtained via the link below.
This report is still not final. I am still verifying whether certain information and data contained in this draft report is accurate. Since the report is now substantially complete, I thought it best to release it now.
This report is in MS Word format. You can save this report on your computer and open this file via Microsoft Word.
http://20-248-c.onlinestoragesolution.com/amarksp/public/RNCNov05Report.doc
A Draft Report on my RNC mine visit to Nicaragua can be obtained via the link below.
This report is still not final. I am still verifying whether certain information and data contained in this draft report is accurate. Since the report is now substantially complete, I thought it best to release it now.
This report is in MS Word format. You can save this report on your computer and open this file via Microsoft Word.
http://20-248-c.onlinestoragesolution.com/amarksp/public/RNCNov05Report.doc
It is going to be a lengthy report, am having first part reviewed now and writing second part...
Anyone desiring initial rough draft can email me at:
amarksp@hotmail.com
put RNC in as subject so my email spam eater will less likely not remove your email...
Nicaraguan Election Will Be Closely Contested
(Angus Reid Global Scan) – There is no clear frontrunner in the early stages of the presidential race in Nicaragua, according to a poll by Borge y Asociados for the Centro de Investigaciones de la Comunicación. 28 per cent of respondents would vote for former Managua mayor Herty Lewites, while 26.2 per cent would support former Constitutionalist Liberal Party (PLC) member and presidency secretary Eduardo Montealegre.
Former president Daniel Ortega of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) is third with 18.5 per cent, followed by the eventual PLC candidate with 10.4 per cent, and José Antonio Alvarado of the Liberal Democratic Party (PLD) with 5.8 per cent.
Lewites headed the government of Nicaragua’s capital from 2001 to 2005, but was expelled from the FSLN in February. In March, the party officially designated Ortega as its presidential nominee. Ortega governed from 1985 to 1990, but was a losing candidate in the 1990, 1996 and 2001 ballots.
In 2001, the PLC’s Enrique Bolaños won the presidential election with 56.3 per cent of the vote. The president lost the support of the PLC in January 2002, when his government decided to take legal action against Arnoldo Alemán. Last year, the former head of state—who governed the country from 1997 to 2002—was sentenced to 20 years in prison for fraud, money laundering and embezzlement.
The next presidential and legislative election is scheduled for November 2006.
Polling Data
Who would you vote for in the presidential election if the candidates were these?
Herty Lewites
28.0%
Eduardo Montealegre
26.2%
Daniel Ortega
18.5%
The PLC candidate
10.4%
José Antonio Alvarado
5.8%
None
8.2%
Not sure
2.8%
Source: Borge y Asociados / Centro de Investigaciones de la Comunicación
Methodology: Interviews with 1,200 Nicaraguan adults, conducted from Oct. 7 to Nov. 7, 2005. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
Central Bank Gold Sales, I like Julian Phillips analysis on this subject...
Julian D.W. Phillips
Nov 28, 2005
Excerpts from the "Global Watch - The Gold Forecaster."
Last week's Gold Sales [under the Central Bank Gold Agreement]
Two weeks ago saw two Central Banks selling 4.01 tonnes of gold during the week ending the 11th of November.
Last week [ending the 18th November] saw three banks selling 16.93 tonnes of gold, within the Central Bank Gold Agreement.
This brings the total sold to date in this the second year of the Central Bank Gold Agreement to 87.19 tonnes.
Extrapolated, this equals 600 tonnes a year. With the "ceiling" at 500 tonnes a year, were the sales to continue at this rate, sales for the year would have to stop at the end of July.
This is what happened in the first year of the agreement, which led to the 'quiet' period for gold [July / August] being a time when gold prices rose unexpectedly.
It awaits confirmation but the most likely candidates appear to be France, Holland and Portugal. France appears to be selling around 7 - 9 tonnes a week on a fairly consistent basis, to date. With a commitment to sell 600 tonnes in the entire 5 years of the agreement, France appears to be running ahead of itself. Will it spread these sales over the 5 years? Or will it sell as much as it can in this price region [+$500]. It is difficult to isolate sales policy without any public statement from the banks, so we are limited to the exercise of extrapolation. But this does help us with the estimation of future gold prices. As the tonnage being sold weekly has increased fourfold in the last week, it appears that when "high prices" [Not if the price goes higher still] are seen in the market place, the Central Banks will sell greater volumes.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/phillips/phillips112805.html
working on RNC write up now, will be a lengthy report and analysis and I have to get caught up on work that came in while on vacation.
yes, freebie now on i-hub, you can private message me on SI.
in regard to RNC, remember RNC will conduct a PP in December, so may be best not to buy full position right now. but RNC is significantly undervalued right now IMO if you are long term investor and expect POG above $470.
Central Bank Gold Sales updated
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=8327291
as of 11.25.05
11/25/05 148,659 € 149,000,000 € 392 380,102.0 11.82... 93.93... 86.54
93.93 tonnes actual vs. central bank planned maximum 86.54 tonnes fiscal YTD
Yes, even when in foreign countries I check on gold at least 3 times per day...!!
Yes, I believe RNC is a strong buy and will elaborate further. I have been long and wrong on RNC for far too long now, but believe I will be proven right within next 6 months, epecially if POG averages above $470 for 2006, in line with Martin M middle average.
Yes, one full week of DD at RNC...
Will participate in upcoming PP and am ensuring operations are up to my expectations. Will likely post my observations and comments when I get back to Dallas.
All my thoughts are now on RNC Gold. Have been in Nicaragua since Nov 23 and will depart on Nov 29.
Still waiting on the PP financing, but...
GFI just paid US$279M for Bolivar Gold.
Bolivar has 1.78M of Proven+M&I Reserves
Bolivar producing 48,000 oz year currently, will ramp up to 190,000 ounces in 2006 with $50M capex.
Thus, GFI paid $157/oz.
Thus, GFI paid $1,470 per 2006 production ounce
Venezuela is politically more risky than Nicaragua/Honduras, IMO.
RNC currently selling (using 122M shares after PP) at:
Under $20 per PP+M&I ounce
Under $200 per 2006 expected production ounce
"Gold Fields bids $330m for Venezuelan
David McKay & Allan Seccombe
Posted: Mon, 21 Nov 2005
[miningmx.com] -- GOLD Fields, the South African gold producer, is to pay $330m in cash for control of Canadian listed firm, Bolivar Gold Corp. in an effort to reach its ambitious four-year gold output growth of 1.5 million oz by 2009.
According to Gold Fields CEO, Ian Cockerill, Bolivar’s main asset - the Choco 10 mine in Venezuela - could be expanded to more 400,000 oz/year from start-up output of 45,000 oz over the last five months. “This is not a knee-jerk transaction. We’re comfortable with the company and that the price we’re paying recognises the upside in the mine,” he said.
Gold Fields already owns 11.4% of Bolivar Gold after investing in the company about two years ago. About 5% of the company is held by Venezuelan parastal, CVG.
Analysts were supportive. "Shareholders can be glad they are not being diluted by the issue of shares for this," said Leon Esterhuizen, an analyst for Investec Securities in Johannesburg. "If it [Choco 10] has the potential they say it has, you could be looking at another Tarkwa. This is about half the size of Tarkwa now and that is a great operation," he said.
Bolivar Gold represents Gold Fields’ first foray into the international gold market since its failed reverse takeover of IamGold Corp, a transaction that was defeated almost 12 months ago. Gold Fields produced 4.2 million oz in its financial year, of which about 66% was mined South Africa, considered a relatively mature gold region.
“This deal is consistent with our growth strategy and gives an operational foothold in a highly prospective gold camp,” said Cockerill. The deal, which has the support of Bolivar Gold’s board, is expected to be concluded by the end of January, 2006.
Including expansions at its existing operations, Tarkwa (Ghana) and St Ives (Australia), and new projects (Cerro Corona, in Peru), as well as Bolivar Gold, the group has already secured additional offshore output of 900,000 oz to 1.1 million oz/year.
In addition, the company is hoping to develop the Essakane gold mine in Burkina Faso and there’s potential for other acquisitions including working with 20% shareholder, Norilsk Nickel which has properties in Russia.
If Gold Fields achieves its gold expansions, about 55% of 5.5 million oz/year in production will from offshore mines.
According to Bolivar’s third quarter operational and financial results, issued in November, the company has increased proposed output in 2006 from Choco 10 to 190,000 oz/year from 140,000 oz. “Cost budgets are still being finalised, but cash cost per ounce is expected to be in order of $185/oz,” the company said. If the company reaches output of 400,000 oz/year, it will be at a cash cost of $195/oz, it said.
Free news alerts: click here to subscribeGold Fields offer, which is equal to C$3.00/share, represents a 19% premium over Bolivar’s close on November 18, and a 40% premium over its 30 day weighted average price.
“We’re conservative on making acquisitions but we prefer to look at cash-on-cash return. This is the total of acquisition and capital costs per ounce, in addition to operating cost per ounce over the life of mine which must not exceed 75% of the long-term gold price,” said Willie Jacobsz, Gold Fields spokesman.
"It seems pretty expensive. Looking at the reserve base they are paying a purchase price of $220 an ounce," said Esterhuizen.
"If you look at resources they are paying about $100. They are paying a lot for blue sky, but they must have a belief there is a lot more here."
In addition to the $330m acquisition price, Bolivar estimates a first phase capital cost of about $50m in order to take Choco 10 to 250,000 oz during 2007. The company had already spent $68m developing the existing infrastructure.
Speaking at the Denver Gold Forum in September, Cockerill said the company was more likely to grow through brownfields expansion rather than acquisitions which were too expensive. “Across the globe, value-adding deals are few and far between. We prefer to grow off our own platform,” he said.
Nick Holland, Gold Fields chief financial officer, said an application had been made with the South African Reserve Bank to deploy cash offshore. "We expect a positive decision in between five to 10 days," he said. "The acquisition falls very much within the ambit of exchange controls." "
Central Bank Gold Sales
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=8327291
Tonnes sold YTD = 82.11
Tonnes expected to be sold = 76.92
central bank selling running slightly ahead of maximum expected per week.
€ 148,808,000 € 392 379,612.2 11.81 82.11 76.92
Well, I am not buying CKG again yet either. My basis is under $2 and I sold enough to get all my original capital back, after getting it all back via Francisco... Over 40% of my shares are from Francisco.
You may want to read my prior message again, I edited it...
well, yes and no...?
a bulk tonnage project which is close to surface and 1 gram per tonne average is just fine... what I cannot tell from the drill maps is exactly how deep the holes are. appears many are being drilled horizontally, so 230 meters does not imply 230 meters total depth...
I certainly am no expert on drill hole maps and gram meters..., but as you know there is a huge difference on gram meters needed for a bulk tonnage project vs. an underground pit.
But you are likely right, the market prefers to see high gram meters and could care less about depth and larger capex required, until they have to build the mine then all of a sudden they worry MUCH about large capex !!!
So just forget about those gram meters altogether and put it all in RNC like you did with MOY..., roll those dice on a producer and start praying...