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NICARAGUA Politics

Under Bolaños, democracy has prevailed

BY MARIFELI PEREZ-STABLE

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Nicaragua is now at the front line for democracy. The Sandinista Revolution ended when Nicaraguans elected Violeta Chamorro in 1990. It was a shining moment, but the light did not linger long. No wonder, we now say, given the country's history, riddled as it is with the sultanic Somozas and recurring U.S. interventions. Yet, maybe -- just maybe -- there might be a break in the clouds.

President Enrique Bolaños now looks to remain in office until the end of his term in January 2007. For a while, it seemed as if he would suffer the fate of more than a dozen Latin American presidents in the past two decades who have had their terms cut short by either social upheavals or allegations of wrongdoing. Bolaños, however, stood at the brink for other reasons.

In November 2004, Sandinista and Liberal legislators modified the constitution to restrict presidential powers. In 2000, Daniel Ortega and Arnoldo Alemán forged a pact that reined in all major institutions. Only the presidency remained beyond their reach.

All the same, Bolaños fought back. He challenged the Liberal-Sandinista infringement upon the executive power before the Central American Court of Justice, which ruled in his favor. The Nicaraguan Supreme Court -- a cog in the Ortega-Alemán cabal -- had earlier declared the changes constitutional and claimed sole jurisdiction on the matter. Nationwide protests soon followed, ostensibly, in reaction to price increases in public transportation and basic goods, but really intended to force the president's resignation.

Bolaños refused to oblige and, instead, appealed to the Organization of American States under the Democratic Charter. An OAS mission visited Nicaragua in May. Shortly thereafter, Secretary General José Miguel Insulza visited the country and charged Dante Caputo, an Argentine diplomat, as his personal representative there. In late September, Insulza sent Bolaños an emphatic letter urging negotiations and compromise sooner rather than later.

By mid-October, Bolaños and Ortega had defused the immediate crisis. The president would finish his term, the constitutional reforms would be frozen until he left office, the legislature would pass needed measures for the International Monetary Fund to release pending funds, and the Sandinistas would abstain from blocking the Central American Free Trade Agreement. After crying foul, the Liberals jumped on the bandwagon.

Alemán, no doubt, is the big loser. He will remain without amnesty and under house arrest. Let's remember that his brazen embezzlement of $100 million of public monies during his presidency is at the root of his personal troubles. Once inaugurated, Bolaños -- Alemán's vice president -- stunned the Liberals by launching an anti-corruption campaign that damned the former president.

At first the junior partner in el pacto (the pact), the Sandinistas subsequently gained the upper hand and have so retained it that Ortega sidelined the Liberals in his deliberations with Bolaños. Beware, nonetheless, the treacherous road of Nicaraguan politics! Ortega and Alemán may still embrace again.

The United States also played a part in defusing the immediate crisis. In early October, Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick visited Nicaragua and minced no words about the anti-Bolaños shenanigans. Caputo characterized Zoellick's visit as one with a ''harsh public message'' and ''behind-the-scene actions that greatly facilitated'' the mediation.

The crisis, however, is far from over. In November 2006, Nicaragua will hold presidential elections. The OAS, the Bush administration and, most important, Nicaraguans demand free and fair elections. All candidates -- including the mavericks Herty Lewites (Sandinista) and Eduardo Montealegre (Liberal) -- must be allowed to stand. Recent polls indicate that Ortega is running a distant third, with Lewites and Montealegre battling for first.

Whoever wins in a fair fight must be accepted by all. At the same time, all committed to Nicaraguan democracy must fight for truly free elections. The OAS has the Democratic Charter, which Bolaños invoked and Insulza skillfully applied. Zoellick's harsh facilitation may be the right stance for Washington. So would what U.S. OAS Ambassador John Maisto has called a ``relevant multilateralism.''

Ultimately, Nicaraguans bear responsibility for their country. Politicos must know that the time for sleaziness has passed. The citizenry must regain the voice expressed so eloquently in Violeta's election. If skulduggery prevails, international actors must be prepared to impose sanctions.

Even a partly cloudy day would, indeed, be good news for democracy in Nicaragua.

Marifeli Pérez-Stable is vice president for democratic governance at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, D.C.