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With the stock price being cut in half in only 3 months, there is a lot of unrest in MZEI land, and rightfully so. When the CEO constantly praises the companies’ progress and the stock gets whacked in half, you have to ask yourself what the heck is going on. Where are we going? What’s the next catalyst that’s going to take us higher and when is that going to happen? A lot of people think the upcoming peer review article is that catalyst. I don’t think so, but more on that later. Here are a couple of quotes from Ed over the past few months:
Sept 24th 2010
“I won’t talk about it too much, but we’re already in initial talking, initial conversations and meetings with um, some very, very large players, as well as the government side of things. So frankly, I think what’s going to happen between now and the next 6 months is probably going to be serious news."
“……with the news that we see coming out over the next 6 months, you know, it’s just hard for me to imagine our share price isn’t gonna dramatically increase, everything is coming up roses so far….”
What we need are orders or sales. If Ed were to announce that he had a backlog of orders waiting once production begins, we would be up, up and away. Going into production and having the funding is great, but we need some kind of news that people are lined up to buy this. How much is it going to cost? What kind of profits are we looking at? Approximately how long is this initial production going to take? These are just a few questions I want to see answered.
This NSE report posted by Kingfisher needs to be a sticky. After reading through this report, I can see why Janes didn't want it made public. There are serious issues in this report that Janes never told shareholders about. He led us to believe the FDA holdup was based on some labeling issues, some images not being in the right format, etc. He constantly made it sound like it was just minor issues. He never mentioned all the other deficiencies in the report such as safety, vibration, temperature concerns, etc. The FDA says "In deficiency 3 of our January 5, 2010 letter, we requested software documentation at a major level of concern." Janes never made anything sound like a major level of concern.
Nice find Getac1ue2. I believe this deserves more discussion. Is it good for IMGG since Dominion is a much lower radiation device, or is it bad for IMGG because it shows the FDA is cracking down and getting tougher on their approvals with radiation devices? Maybe this is what the hold up is. Maybe they'll want more detailed info on the safety and amount of radiation from the Dominion. As a shareholder, obviously I hope this is good news that will pave the way for our approval. But my gut is tellng me we might be getting hung up in this new crackdown as the FDA is looking "to increase the safety of the devices".
Well, this could be a disappointment for everyone expecting great news today. Bottom line is this was nice to see, but not the ‘you don’t want to miss it!’ video everyone was hoping for. It’s what I expected though. Hopefully the coming PR will have more info regarding where we’re at with the FDA. Otherwise, this was just a bunch of hype maybe to stop the bleeding of the SP temporarily. Maybe im being too harsh, but FDA approval is all that matters at this point, not a tour of the facility. I believe this was Dean’s attempt to squash rumors on the board that they can’t really do 3d images. I truly appreciate Dean's attempt to be transparent and answer questions and fears, but this was not 'must see TV!' Will be interesting to see how the SP reacts today.
If it is a 3D images video, then wouldn't that go against what Dean has been saying about rocking the boat with the FDA by releasing new images this late in the process? I seriously doubt he is filming a video today and waiting to share it on Monday to tell us that we finally got FDA approval, so anything else may be taken as a disappointment. Although Dean's FB post sounds very positive, I'm a little worried. How can we not be after the slide we've had the past 6 weeks.
First off, I want to thank gdsgds for reporting back to us what he heard and saw. You didn't have to do that, and it is much appreciated.
Secondly, I find gdsgds following quote very interesting...
Mike told me that since the last public conference, they received two requests from the FDA , one requesting all docs on a disc and the other is change some verbage in the manual.
Does anyone else find it a little troubling that Mike would share this FDA info with gdsgds and not the rest of the shareholders? We knew the FDA had been in contact one time requesting something minor, but now we find out some good details from a shareholder instead of from the company. Seems to me that this is pretty important info that should've been shared to all of us at the same time. I assume this will be covered in Friday's upcoming video, but the bottom line is gdsgds got some nice valuable 'inside' info that he was gracious enough to share with all of us. Just MHO.
Spp119...you still around? Haven't heard from you since the shareholder meeting, I'm curious as to your take on everything. Hope all is well. From what I remember, you were one of the few, if not the only one, who said all your sources point to only gas. Wasn't a popular report back then, but turned out to be one of the most accurate.
Thanks for your reviews and info mabenn. Excellent.
thanks for reposting this sidewinder. can't believe this was deleted.
For what it's worth, I went to the Dana Gas website and found the link under investor relations, then under financial statements. The url has the date 2/1/2010 in it...
http://danagas.ae.tmp10.mschosting.com/uploads/pdf/2010/02/01/518.pdf
I believe Troy's explaination is a very good point rather than saying the link/data is bogus and fake. As an investor, you can't put the blinders up that easily.
ssc, maybe you need a refresher as to what IMHO stands for. It's in all of BB's posts. Why bash him for giving his very well thought out opinions? if you see any faults or illogic in his most recent post, then do share with some real reasons why.
For what it's worth, I remember Jeff Smurlick asked the 1st question during the Q&A at the last CC. Obviously he's a shareholder, maybe a friend of DK's?
Thanks Spp! The board has been pretty unbearable to read lately. Your posts and information are much appreciated, especially during this lull we are in!!
No wonder the line's busy. I can't get through. Giving up, guess will catch the replay later.
I believe today's 15% SP drop is pretty simple to explain. After the recent rumors and news posted on this board, many believed that drilling results might be coming within 'weeks' as PN said himself on the company web video. However, during the CC today, Dan Gralla mentioned more than once that it will take 'several months' for results. Did anyone notice how many times PN said the word 'patience'?? I bet at least 10. He also confirmed that we are not in any talks of being bought out, and have not been approached of such.
So...why should anyone buy this stock in the next month? What's the catalyst that is going to take us higher in the next 30 days? Why would a new investor join now and not wait at least another month?
The majority of this message board are longs that aren't going anywhere and will wait it out some more. That's nothing new for most of you, and I will wait it out as well. What we got today was confirmation that we are months away from results and as much as most don't want to admit it, jake's forecast of March 2010 may prove to be early.
So...who's right?
1) Mark's source who says: that there are positive shows oil in the blocks. 3, 4 "look very good."
2) spp's source who says: The current drilling in JDZ by Addax and Sinopec has hit three gas rather than oil prospects - each very big though. Obo also proved more gas than oil so the new thinking is that the JDZ is gas prone.
or 3) Crappie who says: nobody knows nuttin!
IMO, Mark's source has often been right about info, but often wrong on the timing. spp has also provided alot of great DD in the past. I commend both of them for simply sharing what they have found. It is up to us as shareholders to decide how we use their info and try to determine which is right if we can. Unfortunately, one of them has to be wrong.
ahh, good for him. He hasn't posted in a while, glad to hear that's why.
Anyone heard from exceo lately? em
Hats off to you tryoty, that had to have taken forever..
BB, I too found this sad and said the same thing 9 days ago here:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=42617848
I was in the minority though as most that responded said there was no real difference in this news vs. the ERHC PR. I beg to differ and am glad to see I'm not alone. As a shareholder, I find this to be very disconcerting and makes me wonder how & when we are going to find the true results of Kina. I love this statement at the end of the ERHC PR:
Sinopec has announced that its drilling results might be released in the fourth quarter with a caveat that such release is contingent upon numerous factors.
I don't want to hear when we 'might' get results. Any of us can guess what 'might' happen. I interpret this as them laying the groundwork that we won't be hearing squat til next year.
Thanks again spp for your explaination and all the info you provide to the board. I wish you much success with ERHE and hope EEL works out in the longrun for you.
Thanks Mike, as an ERHE shareholder, I'm well aware of that PR. My point is that spp's update provides more info of the findings at Bomu. Erhc has not said that the gas find in Bomu were noncommercial. That's a pretty important piece of info. Would be nice to have heard the same info come from Erhc management to us as well. That's my opinion, maybe I'm wrong. Which of the following is more valuable to you as a shareholder:
from ERHC:
Based on the early analysis done to date, natural gas is discovered, but again a detailed evaluation of information from the well has only just commenced so it is far too early for any conclusions to be drawn on the extent and quality of the hydrocarbon system encountered.
from spp:
Early analysis of the wireline logs indicates the presence of gas in a number of sand intervals. Further evaluation of the discovery, which is too small to be commercial on a stand alone basis, and its impact on the prospectivity of other prospects on Block 2 is underway.
Is there any good reason why EEL has provided their shareholders with a Bomu update and yet ours sits silent?? Why are we having to rely on updates from other posters and other management teams on the results??
Spp, your info is greatly appreciated. Good thing we have you and others on here since our company doesn't like to keep us as updated.
US to lend Brazil $10 Billion to drill...
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=334968315717535
Thanks for your response BB. I actually was concerned I may have ticked you off and drove you back to the other board! lol...I'm glad that's not the case as it was not my intention.
Anyways, I see your point. I disagree slightly though, because I believe Mark is simply posting what he hears from his source. If it doesn't pan out, then we can say, OK, his source was wrong or late, or whatever. But, I don't believe any of his posts are lies. He's posting what he hears, and leaves it up to us to decide. He's pointing to FUTURE events and they may or may not change.
Similarly, when Oilphant posts that we are going to hit the .80's, or chatter 3.15, etc., I say that's ok, it's his guess or opinion of a FUTURE event, and that's fine with me, no big deal. If Oilphant posted 'my source says Sedco 702 status 450 feet" then once again I would simply say his source is just bad. No reason to ban him for a bad source. BUT, to me, he crossed the line when he posted lies of CURRENT Sedco drilling depths. To me, that's not a guess or opinion of something that might happen in the future, that's stating something happening currently as a fact. I believe those posts were meant to deceive because there doesn't seem to be any other rational meaning for them. I also find it very interesting that when he recently posted multiple times in 1 day (which is rare for him), it correlated with a 1.7 mil volume day. No one seemed to mention or notice this correlation. It's just one more thing that makes me go hmmmm...
Keep up the great work BB!
GLTA
LOL...I guess he'll tax the rich to pay for the delivery costs.
Oilphant should be banned if Mark's info from JDA is true. Mark's source has proven credibility and I believe it to be true. We all come to the boards to read facts, and opinions from everyone. For me, the more opinions the better. And even if someones opinion doesn't pan out, it's still valued. Oily on the other hand is posting lies. Saying the Sedco status 450' is a lie if Mark's source is correct. He therefore should be banned. No one wants to come here and read lies. He's been 'wrong' alot in the past of course, but I think he's crossed the line with lying. I don't have anyone on ignore because I enjoy reading everyones opinions whether I agree or not. Oily will be my first ignore if he's not banned.
Thanks and GLTA who post any facts and opinions, they are greatly appreciated!
BB, if you believe that drilling couldn't have possibly begun yet, then you've got to believe that Oily is a liar at this point. I mean he's quoted drill depths of Sedco on 2 different posts. I know he's already long lost credibility with multiple people, so come on, you gotta be having your doubts on him by now, right?
I did find this for all you traders and TA'ers out there...
SEO on a Youtube clip? Now I'm laughing. You got a link?? I'd love to see/hear this!
Thanks Try, you're a standup guy and I appreciate your posts and DD. If we both get what we want in the next 12 months, I'll be buying you that margarita!
Tryoty,
I respect your stance and opinion on riding out ERHC for the long term, but why is it that you have to talk down to those of us who'd love to make a nice profit on a buyout? Calling it 'short term personal greed' & 'short-sighted "investors"' is getting old. I think you're crazy if you think we're going to be around for another 5, 7, or 10 yrs, but I nor others don't ridicule you for it. I don't mind you asking why some of us hope for a buyout, but why you have to insult along the way is beyond me.
The answer to your question of why some people are looking forward to a buyout is actually quite simple to me. Everyone has different expectations, exit strategies and time frames. Everyone also has a different cost basis. Some are avg'd in at .60, others at .15. Catching a 20 bagger is a great opportunity for most people. I would also guess that most people here don't think ERHE is the next Microsoft, Intel or Cisco, and we won't be riding it out 20 yrs to find out. The one thing we all have in common is that we are all here to make money. For some, $4/share is chump change, but for others, it's life changing money. And therein lies your answer as to why some hope for the buyout.
The answer to your question of why is simple to me. To take the risk off the table. For some reason, alot of people here think hitting the motherload is automatically going to happen. Or 78% chance it's going to happen. I don't think it's such a given. If there was an offer on the table for $4.375, I'd gladly take it. Especially if we could work out some kind of deal similar to Addax where we could back out at a price if the oil max is there. Addax took the risk off the table, why is it so unbelievable that SEO won't do the same? I'm not saying he will, but I think it's definately worth discussing and not some crazy idea.
Great DD as usual BB. And with Pups new update of drilling looking more like mid/late August, that gives a little over a month for that 'gap' to get worked out. Who knows though. Is Sinopec willing to pay billions for ERHE with nothing proven? Maybe SEO has no interest in a predrill deal. Maybe he wants to see what's there first. To me, that's the $64k question...Does he want to deal, or does he want to see what's there first?
Also, isn't ERHE shareholder meeting supposed to be in Sept? Maybe we strike a deal just prior to our meeting just like Addax did prior to theirs. Maybe we can strike a deal similar to Addax's where we can pay to get out of it if we hit the motherload. So many ?'s and unknowns, hopefully we get alot answered in another month or 2. Exciting times.
If Sinopec/Erhe buyout or partial is in the works, I would think we would need to see some more serious volume than we have lately. Remember, Addax hit an all time high on volume just days before their buyout announcement. I know there are alot less eyes on us, but I think volume needs to be in the millions before we see any of the rumors pan out.
Still, it is nice to see an article about the possibility. It's a start!
Thanks for the update Pops. eom
Well, looks like more uncertainty and guessing has come from this Addax/Sinopec deal than we had before it happened. I wonder who will turn out to be right: Mark's JDA source that says DP to drill July 15, or Addax who said mid August today. Also, seems the rumor of Addax taking over Anadarko's block 3 operatorship has cooled off. If this had legs, I suspect we would have heard something by now.
Finally, I have a question for Pops: Are you able to shed any more light on what your source was talking about that was supposed to happen by this past Monday? Did he/she say confirm if the big news was the Sinopec/Addax deal or something else still to possibly come?
TIA
Remember, Sedco is supposed to arrive in Block 2 in less than 2 days. I find it hard to believe, but Mark's source has been pretty accurate lately.
I agree Tx. Especially with your last line! lol. Time to call it a night.