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thanks, excellent JYen chart
given its nearterm nature, resolution over weeks, not days
/ jim
only trouble I see is poor North American drilling prospects
Canada West, Canadian Maritimes, and GulfMex
that is it
I think the sector gets hurt periodically from knowledge that the geological supplies are there, but the accessibility is not ripe, and new entries of supply (e.g. Russia) disrupt the pricing mechanisms
so commitment is sketchy and irregular
wait until oil hits $45 and natgas hits $6
all will change
/ jim
gold will also rise for other reasons;
- Arabs and Islamics are turning to the Euro and have made solid foundation plans for a potential gold-convertible Dinar currency
- China is diversifying its $300B TBond reserves, stating in springtime that they pursue 1/3 each in TBond, EuroBond, Gold
- Gold miners continue to cover their disastrous hedgebooks, with AngloGold's single quarter covering activity equaling the entire nation of Japan's purchase over 2001
one can always say that the USdollar is the driver of this new longterm gold bull
but they avoids the many reasons why gold is rising, almost all of which have dollar implications
such simplistic reasoning evades all complex factors that are forming a volcano under gold
sure, the dollar is the key
but why is the dollar dropping, Mr GoldenCalf Hating Sir ???
in time, I expect even you to be underneath collecting GoldenCalf nuggets of urination, and why not?
the precious metals miner stocks will see DotCom-like price appreciation in the coming quarters
I relish this development, expecting a Vicious Circle USDollar Decline, which will culminate in a monetary crisis, all of which I expected, stated to you, despite your absurd claim last spring that the USDollar monetary system was WELL MANAGED
still think so now?
the part few seem to comprehend is that we are witnessing a
TOTAL SLOWMOTION REFUTATION OF KEYNESIAN MONTARISM
few get it
and even after the climax, few liberal numbnuts will get it
MY OUTLINE, from November 2002
1. real rate of interest has been near zero since Oct2001
2. rise in foreign holdings of US assets increases our vulnerability to foreign abandonment
3. money supply increased over 40% since Jan 2001, close to 100% rise since 1991
4. return to federal deficits from recession and wartime economy, security spending
5. rising world tension, desire for safer safe haven, the geopolitical threat to peace
6. Glass-Steagal Law repeal now heightens risk of financial cluster failure in progress
7. world perception of American institutionalized dishonesty
8. likelihood of systemic banking shock waves from debt collapse and derivative chain reaction
9. reduction of USDollar usage as both store of value, banking reserve asset
10. sharp increase of savings across Asia in the form of gold
11. Islamic world is planning gold-centric international commerce, distancing from USDollar
12. Bank for International Settlements has targeted the US dollar for a corrective decline
13. reversal of miner hedges, end of gold leasing, reducing supply
14. dismantled mining supply apparatus, from systemic price below production
15. paradox: high gold price leads to higher demand, and high price leads to lower supply
16. trade tariff resumption discourages global trading village concept
17. USDollar correction to relieve the trade imbalance could result in a currency crisis
18. accelerating worldwide currency turbulence
19. European currencies offer more attractive alternatives to USDollar, with Swiss Franc leading
20. the calendar date Sept 11th marked the turning point for USDollar in two critical years
21. rising costs from entire energy complex (crude oil, natural gas, heating oil, gasoline)
22. commodity trend reversal has begun, the beginning of a new longterm trend
23. Kondratieff Winter is gathering speed and force
24. divergence toward deflationary credit-based economy, inflationary cash-based economy
25. the parallel between gold's rise in the 1970's and 2000's has many components
MiLud GayBoyJohnny be pissing pants now, he is / duncan
I expect a federal $1 trillion deficit before 2006
maybe back to back
off-balance debt was invented by the USGovt
/ jim
what, accumulating the barbaric relic, dead metal? / jw
Econ Indictment article now featured on 321gold.com
http://www.321gold.com
they put it on the front page, where gold stuff appears
later it will go down to the Economics section
1380 hits already since 9pm last night
way cool, jim
once XAU gets into that gap, hot knife thru butter / jw
replaced Economist Indictment article with HTML file
better loading, copying, cut&pasting
it should appear on 321gold.com in a day or two
thanks
it was too much to bite off in 20 pages
most indictments are about 150-300 pages in length
but it lays a groundwork for future detailed articles
/ jim
sorry for my scarcity
work is more demanding at the office
good thing really
the articles took a lot of time
I really like how the Economist Indictment article turned out
has little to do with gold and currency
I took some economics in college
followed a couple courses in gradschool
these guys really get my goat with their incompetence
I truly despise their profession
two bigtime themes lately:
1. Bernanke's speech on monetization
2. car industry will take us into recession
housing has gotten too much attention
the economy will not suffer much from housing starts crapping out
but the car industry will lose 100 times the jobs, maybe more
I must go now
my hand is stuck inside my pants
/ jim
thoughts on the car sector (true disaster brewing)
0% financing masks incredibly deep trap for buyers
nowhere is deflation more evident yet hidden from customers
just read that 14-15% of the entire US economy derives from the auto sector
mfg, finance, service, repair, parts, etc
I knew it was a high figure, and the article fixed the number
usually a recession is led by cars and housing
instead, this time low rates suckered millions into continuation of spending patterns
in real estate, they chase higher and higher prices, like fools
the deflating asset bubble has fooled millions into chasing these low prices, which will all get much lower still
in cars, customers chase a depreciating asset
in good times it is not uncommon to see a person's car loan balance slightly exceed the current value of the car
after a couple years, payment to principle catches up to a relaxing deprecation rate
but in these times, the differential has widened sharply
the 0% finance deals have absolutely flooded the used car market
absolutely flooded it
that is where I will seek my next car
fortunately for me, my German older sporty jalopy will command a decent price, despite its 115k miles
since the Germans refuse to destroy their market with insane financing
the used market prices have virtually collapsed
car dealers wont tell you in ads how low they will go on your tradein
it will get much much worse
just heard from Boston friend who reports a radio show interviewing a car dealer
he says the walkaway rate from car loans just exploded past all previous records
why continue with a car loan when its value is $10k less than the balance?
so they walk away
the guy predicted real estate property would next see this
but property is an appreciating asset (typically)
but that story will take more time to unfold
as soon as a driver takes his/her car for 100 miles, the loan is in jeopardy
this is not unusual though, esp with American cars
they usually decline 20% in the first month
German and Japanese cars decline also, but not 20%
now add job insecurity and layoffs to that formula, ouch!
just who finances these 0% deals?
it sure as hell aint banks, they aint that crazy
OR DESPERATE
it is the car mfg finance arm division, that is who!
these guys are soon gonna hold a whopping used inventory
they will undoubtedly be taking possession of many REPO's
they have essentially destroyed their pricing structure from lowcost financing while attempting to maintain the topline new car price
in a matter of months, new prices will descend in order to clear new car inventory
law of supply & demand
what they have done is erode the very foundation of their new car pricing structure
used car prices typically follow the new car pricing
now, due to lowcost financing, new car pricing will soon be led by used car saturated pricing
this horribly treacherous economy has turned things upside down
many like Sir Alan GreenScrotum have steered a watchful eye toward the real estate sector for maintaining consumer spending power, extracting equity insanely from homes via REFI, enjoying round after round, encouraging the hapless consumers to go deeper into hock, thus buying GreenMan more time to save his legacy
but it wont work for him
he will earn total ire of American citizens
just give it time
BUT THE REAL STORY IS WITH CARS !!!
real estate might support consumer spending, and I do believe that support will erode
but the more immediate shock wave will be from the car sector
1 in 7 jobs comes from the car sector directly or indirectly
and those jobs will disappear very quickly
take my word, very quickly, and very soon
next year will be full of job losses in the car sector
in every phase of the car sector
real estate stall will hurt consumer spending
car sector stall will hurt jobs
together, they usher in a DoubleDip recession
dont listen to HACK ECONOMISTS
their aim misses the toilet bowl every single week
just like normal business cycles, the big nasty recession will come on the car/housing avenue, all in due time
GreenInflation Man has only guaranteed that the recession this time will be one to remember
it will gradually undermine the USDollar itself
as it unhinges the largest components to the economy
nowhere is deflation more evident and hidden than the car sector
check Kelly Blue Book for that evidence on used prices
ask friends in the auto business about inventory
not only new inventory, but used inventory
oftentimes, older used inventory goes to Mexico and South America
not this time
AND THEN THERE IS FORD, GM PENSION UNDERFUNDING
AND THEIR CORPORATE DEBT LOAD
get ready for nationalization of these two giants
or else bankruptcy
we are talking about over 20 million jobs !!!
the disaster brewing is with the car sector, not housing
the catchphrase acronym has been REFI
it should really be REPO
/ jim
p.s. "Repo Man" -- tremendous film (Emilio Estavez)
final article : "Statistician's Indictment of Economists"
in PDF form, slow in printing (possibly loading also)
it is long, but one can pick & choose using the outline
Outline:
Statement of the 12 Counts -- simple listing
Preface
Nature of Economics -- difficult experimental field
Illiteracy Among the Public -- they dont know shit about shit
Academia's Ivory Tower -- defense of status quo, no Nobel Prizes
Counts within Indictment -- outlined in real solid detail
Friends of the Court -- Galbreath, Roach, Grant, Kasriel, et al
Conclusion -- the absurdity of their inflation policy
have fun, enjoy
the result of 15 years of watching these clowns
their statistical foundation and practice is indefensible
closing lines:
Dissenters today are mere pilgrims in an unholy land.
The cabal of Economists is fast becoming recognized as an EDEN OF FOOLS.
just click on the article link in full view
be sure to sign up for free mailout notification (no spam)
http://www.goldenjackass.com/
/ jim
final article ready: "StatRat's Indictment of Economists"
in PDF form, slow in printing (possibly loading also)
it might be long, but one can pick & choose using the outline
Outline:
Statement of the 12 Counts -- simple listing
Preface
Nature of Economics -- difficult experimental field
Illiteracy Among the Public -- they dont know shit about shit
Academia's Ivory Tower -- defense of status quo, no Nobel Prizes
Counts within Indictment -- outlined in real solid detail
Friends of the Court -- Galbreath, Roach, Grant, Kasriel, et al
Conclusion -- the absurdity of their inflation policy
have fun, enjoy
the result of 15 years of watching these clowns
their statistical foundation and practice is indefensible
closing lines:
Dissenters today are mere pilgrims in an unholy land.
The cabal of Economists is fast becoming recognized as an EDEN OF FOOLS.
just click on the article link in full view
be sure to sign up for free mailout notification (no spam)
http://www.goldenjackass.com/
/ jim
final article ready: "StatRat's Indictment of Economists"
in PDF form, slow in printing (possibly loading also)
it is long, but one can pick & choose using the outline
Outline:
Statement of the 12 Counts -- simple listing
Preface
Nature of Economics -- difficult experimental field
Illiteracy Among the Public -- they dont know shit about shit
Academia's Ivory Tower -- defense of status quo, no Nobel Prizes
Counts within Indictment -- outlined in real solid detail
Friends of the Court -- Galbreath, Roach, Grant, Kasriel, et al
Conclusion -- the absurdity of their inflation policy
have fun, enjoy
the result of 15 years of watching these clowns
their statistical foundation and practice is indefensible
closing lines:
Dissenters today are mere pilgrims in an unholy land.
The cabal of Economists is fast becoming recognized as an EDEN OF FOOLS.
just click on the article link in full view
be sure to sign up for free mailout notification (no spam)
http://www.goldenjackass.com/
/ jim
stress test will be examining USdollar - USTBond link
inflation from front door or back door, either way, inflation
front door:
escalating federal budget deficits from recessionary spending, wartime spending, security spending, stimulus financial spending
the immediate effect would be greater TBond supply, thus higher rates to entice investment
offset by the credit bubble mania continuation, but eventually overwhelmed by additional supply
back door:
tremendous need for govt spending, but done via monetization rather than financed spending
the immediate effect would be dollar devaluation from added supply
the lower dollar forces TBonds lower, with higher rates
either way, higher rates, lower dollar
the stress test will be more like an intelligence test administered to the FOREX, to examine the tight link to the TBond credit market
gonna be interesting
but what do I know?
I am just a Golden Calif ignoramus who worships a barbaric relic
/ jim
401k's, PPTeams S&P futures, bond rebalancers
take your pick, they all help
but the S&P chart has not yet pierced the neckline in...
THE MOTHER OF ALL BEARISH HEAD & SHOULDERS
all world bourses show the same pattern except the Nikkei
their died years ago
their stock market is walking dead, just like their banks
dollar decline resumption is imminent
from this point on, it is all about the dollar
US$ should lead gold up, stocks down, bonds down
/ jim
parallels to 1987 are unmistakable, but totally unlearned
some disturbing social trends that I have detected
these are not small, nor minor in importance
we dont learn from mistakes
instead, we repeat them with amplification
we dont study the past traumatic events
instead, we rewrite history from political agendas
we dont prepare for the next shocking events
instead, we gear the entire society with more leverage and more innovative methods to expand credit
we unfortunately deserve what is coming
USA will be a lesser nation
its citizens will become more impoverished and dependent for care
/ jim
dollar took a tumble with the PPI news, Intel etc
more importantly, both stocks and bonds are being sold off
Dow minus 80, but TENS yield up 4.0 bpt
here is the clownbuck, now at 105 flat
critical level is around 104 plus/minus
a sign of things to come -- all down (stocks, bonds, dollar)
/ jim
dollar took a tumble with the PPI news
more importantly, both stocks and bonds are being sold off
Dow minus 80, but TENS yield up 4.0 bpt
here is the clownbuck, now at 105 flat
a sign of things to come -- all down (stocks, bonds, dollar)
/ jim
preview of things to come in Trez bond market -- TROUBLE
this is the THIRTY
I wish I had this in the TEN
the deflation-inspired falling rate phenomenon is coming full speed headlong into the dollar-risk inspired rise rate requirement
gonna be rocky
this is the stuff of market crashes
a little shockwave from PPI today
+1.1% with cars
+0.5% without cars
just undermines confidence in USGovt data
since car prices are not going up
/ jim
AlQaeda interview confirms my long suspicion: US$ targeted
Al-Usuquf insists that September 11 "was just the beginning. It was a way to call the world's attention to what's going to happen." He then details a plan to destroy the US by "attacking the heart of what they consider the most important thing in the world: money".
(my suspicion since last winter... target is the USDollar, which is far far more vulnerable than we imagine)
.....
"So 75 percent of its GNP comes from services, and most of it is financial speculation."
(this is untrue, since services include restaurants, tax prep, FedEx etc, oil drilling, business consulting, teaching, repair of HVAC, installation of equipment, simple banking services, simple insurance services, landscaping, cleaning, etc... I would say speculation is a mere 5-8% of services)
.....
"What I'm saying is if US credibility is affected, its stocks - the US dollar - will fall at tremendous speed, and the whole American economy will collapse."
(I agree, very possible, or at least slow enough to cause havoc)
.....
"Seven nuclear heads have already been positioned on American soil, before September 11, and they are ready to be detonated. Before September 11, American security was a fiasco, and even later, if we needed, we could position the bombs there."
(as frightening as this sounds, extremely possible, provided AlQaeda indeed possesses such weapons, which is very doubtful, but I have been concerned about Soviet nukes on black market since 1991)
.....
"As to the "rich people", they are "people who are also tired of seeing the US bleeding the rest of the world."
(we do bleed the whole world in order to sustain our consumption and standard of living, with financing now at $800-900 billion per year, and by securitizing our Trez debt all the risk lies in the holders, whereas with South America by setting it up as installment loans all the risk lies with them)
ME:
some serious shit is coming down the pike
we Americans live in LaLaLand with thoughts of security
our society and land is an open book, an open door
how can we stop weapons when we still issue passports to terrorists?
we have 1000's of cargo containers entering our ports
we saw many of them in Long Beach CA oceanside in early October
anyone who thinks these are inspected is kooky
think GOLD
since with/without terrorism, the USDollar is toast
this is a great time not to live near NYCity, LA, Chicago, SFran, WashDC, Boston
Pitt is a dump, but it might be a safe dump fully 500 miles due east and slightly south of Chicago
/ jim
no, but several guys at work here chew Cope / jw
AF, scarey stuff all of it, scarey decade coming, buy gold /jw
lower ST rates will also lead some into buying gold / jw
one more log on the JPMorgo fire, UCK EM (Merrill next) / jw
this chart says it all, response to Fed rate cut
time of cut was Wednesday 2pm
/ jim
wow, that one was a keeper
destined for a post on the office wall
where did you find that?
all the elements are now in place
dismal low shorterm trez yields
European Central Bank has put its head firmly up its ass
end of cover run motored by bond rebalancing
elections over, GOP will offer fiscal stimulus
the dollar has broken somewhat, more to come
path is clear to war
JPMorgo getting attacked by lilliputians of rumor
Brazil has new president-elect favoring default
gold has had at least three months to consolidate
what I find amazing and pathetic is the wide view held by many amateur observers that war is good for kickstarting the economy
I could not come with a single better reason why the economy would simply cave in
crude oil is off $5/bbl in one month
it now sits at a critical moving average (of support?)
the yield spreads have NOT reduced much at all
not enough to take pressure off the derivative explosives
probably another minor ambush on the gold longs
will take that as opp to buy more shares
/ jim
p.s. been real busy in the last few days
visitor from out of town, old friend from Boston
and prepping an article for publication on a main gold website
look out! the jackass is coming out!
nice dig on Pimco Gross article
I always love to read about The Fed Model
I continue to imagine it as a buxom babe working under the table on Sir Alan Hairless
/ jim
USDollar slipping badly, now at 105.7
this is the biggest market response
currency overrides bonds
bonds override stocks
/ jim
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0
watching Wayne Angell on CNBC, he is a total idiot
he said...
"the Fed has a great deal of ammunition left"
oh really, now at 1.25% on FedFunds, how is that?
"monetary policy always works, and when the Fed uses it, pricing power always emerges"
oh really, as in creating a bubble, then busting it?
and now seeing an economy slipping into recession after 11 cuts?
pricing power? sorry, none seen, esp with Asia on the scene
"the market wants real money, and that is what the Fed is all about"
oh really, you mean the unbacked dollar and a federal debt of $6.2 trillion?
and "the Fed needs to see the TENS yield down so low that people shun the bonds in favor of taking risks"
right
except now the growth is not there for lower rates to succeed
economic stupidity will carry with it a heavy price
Angell is but a link in the Economic Stupidity chain
the Dow was even at the announcement
it went slowly up to +60, later -80
now at +15
I will be watching the dollar, which now is a full 2% below the German shorterm rate
I expect the USdollar to slip until it breaks below 105
/ jim
nice chart of TBond, rates are rising
stock rally is looking eerily like late summer 1987
rising rates, rising commodities, falling dollar
BUT RISING STOCKS AGAINST THIS BACKDROP???
is that a Cup & Handle reversal there?
/ jim
nice chart of TBond, rates are rising
stock rally is looking eerily like late summer 1987
rising rates, rising commodities, falling dollar
BUT RISING STOCKS AGAINST THIS BACKDROP???
is that a Cup & Handle reversal there?
/ jim
large govt policy errors are coming next couple months / jw
regardless of Fed Action, I expect stock selloff
no action: sell off due to refusal to support the economy and stocks, as we slidep perilously into recession once again
1/4 pt: sell off due to realization of its small impact, esp in light of 11 previous rate cuts that have left us vulnerable to a Double Dip (which is the norm, despite bullshit press/media utterances)
1/2 pt: sell off due to realization that the Fed has essentially used its entire quiver of cuts, with tragic little to show for its blunt tool approach in managing the world's largest economy
I regard the 1/2 pt decision as the most ominous for stocks
if a big cut, then the dollar falls down another 10-13% quickly, showing its extremely poor competitive stance visavis euro bonds, taking stocks with them as foreigners depart in larger droves... this mindless rally has offered foreigners a nice opportunity to exit at a higher price, thank you they say
I believe the dollar will be leading stocks now
at some point dictated once again by the Mortgage Backed Securities, the TENS will see a limit on lower bound yield, which will signal the bond TENS to cease & desist rallying
the USdollar is soon to be moving to CENTER STAGE
the USdollar will be the ultimate arbiter !!!
today the dollar gave back all gains, and has stubbornly refused over the past two weeks to join in the rally fun
today gold held its ground as stocks gave up the Dow +210
today golds reversed to register small gains
/ jim
p.s. USdollar chart for last three days
CRB ready to rumble on breakout?
Cup & Handle has top level at 230
/ jim
call me Jim Willie Drudge
yeah mon
here are Chapman's words confirming my JPMorgan massive $70B fraud rumor!!!
if it is written, it must be true <G>
eeeeeeehaaaaaiiiii !!!!!!
Chapman On Gold
Don Murphy, a technical analyst with Merrill Lynch speaking on CNBC says, "My view is that I like gold as an investment. I'm inclined to think that gold is making a secular low, a buy of a generation!" He went on to say, "To be conservative, I'm going to say $450 to $550, but my thought is that gold could go back and challenge the levels we saw in 1980-81 at $850 an ounce!"
Firing of gold analysts....."Midyear it was Kevin Crisp and Dinsa Mehta of Morgan and Chase. Yesterday, it was Goldman Sach's Dan McConvey. These three were very well known in the gold industry and were among the leading apologists for their corrupt bullion banks. McConvey had the perfect background for Goldman as he came there via Barrick Gold." Could it be that exposure is near?
Rumors abound that there is massive accounting fraud at JP Morgan Chase and they are under investigation. It seems the US attorney's office and the New York Attorney General have major investigations in progress. They are in the process of trying to prove criminal intent. The word is their losses, which have been covered up, run to $70 billion. It's expected the hammer will be dropped in the month of December. It's been reported that daily shipments by truck of Federal Reserve Gold out of NYC is covering a $170 billion fraud concealing $70 billion in losses. If this is true, and we believe it fits, then gold would skyrocket.
my response:
my reporting of the JPM fraud investigation is but one of many singing in painful rhyme about Manhattan choruses
I give 1000:1 odds that the SD2 Scoop is not alone
he would NOT base his report on Internet Message Boards
he has his own reputation to defend and think about
from what Joe tells me from my club, FannyMae is part of the bankers community which is circulating this rumor... they believe it is based on AttyGenl activities... their set of bankers roam around, lunch together, have buddies from former positions, have school chums in rival firms, and thus form a community that breathes and talks to each other
this is the basis of the rumors
I dont doubt my Joe for a minute
let's see if the JPM departures escalate
I must admit it is a thrill to see Chapman's word in widely circulated print
I will attempt to send him an email in order to verify that the rumor is as wide as I believe it is
/ jim
What is holding the DJII up with all the bad news?
From: Jim Sinclair
Date: Friday, November 1, 2002
[spelling errors corrected by the jackass]
Question:
This rally seems to have no end to it. The market in equities eats all the bad news and keep chugging along. Is this a new bull market for general equities? Bloomberg TV seems to think so. All the people interviewed see a higher market and no new lows.
Answer:
What is happening now is positioning. Many of the traders are getting positioned for a Federal Reserve reduction in the key lending rate of 1/2 percent next week by buying equities and the equity futures.
Today, the futures in equity indexes led the indexes up all day. The assumption is that the equities market will rally wildly on that news of a Fed cut in rates. Then in the spirit of the greater fool theory, those that buy today, Friday, will be able to sell next week at much higher prices. This is the thesis that has been holding the equities market ever since the event of the 200-pt DJII intra-day drop and then recovery on the news the consumers expectations were significantly lower. Well, there are few other points to consider.
1. The bull play seems a hair too easy.
2. A drop of the 1/2% by the Fed is a clear admission that the recovery has flopped.
3. The Fed may well do nothing in the face of the drop in the value of intermediate and long bonds.
4. The US dollar continues to act like it is being significantly liquidated at every positive opportunity in a manner that seems quite spirited. That is not the way the dollar should act, if we are on the eve of another leg in the equities rally. [can you say CIRCLE JERK?]
5. We have been doing nothing but reducing the interest rates and it has not resulted in the expected economic recovery. More reductions in the cost of money is not the medicine required to jump start this economy. A defibrillator attached to the Niagara Mohawk Power plant is a good idea.
I tend to think that, assuming the Fed does act by cutting rates at least 1/2 point, it will provide the opportunity to sell the market for a drop that will take the DJII to a lower low than we have previously experienced.
God help the equities market, if the Fed acts and the market does practically nothing. Of course if the Fed fails to act, the market will drop and the talking heads will promise action at next month's meeting if not sooner. Probable hope of an interest rate cut is stronger medicine than a cut itself. How perverse the mind of the market is.
[the bolded sentence has been my point exactly lately]
A great deal of the liquidity from the expansion of monetary aggregates that had entered the commodity market has exited to play the equities on the recent huge rally. Fed action will, in all probability, mark the point wherein the liquidity exits the equities and heads back into the commodity market. That is the play I am looking for -- not the highly touted buy 'em Friday and clean up next week play on financial TV. Actually, I still like buying Gold & Coffee on each reaction when TA warranted.
[sell the news, babycakes]
TNX (10yr TrezYield) might be showing bullish signal
not your customary type of chart to examine, eh?
(just practicing my Canadian)
some items of note:
20MA is making a bullish cross now over the 50MA
strong run from October 35.6 low enjoyed pullback here
finding support from 50MA here at 39.5
somewhat early to tell if higher yields will be seen
some gaps to be filled possibly, below current levels
vague signal with RSI at midrange 50
daily stochastix is still dropping
I could imagine a bullish trendline in that daily stochastix
nothing wrong with wishful thinking, but I dont claim it yet
a momentum slingshot swing upward would have target 46-47
just worth a look though
/ jim
TNX (10yr TrezYield) might be showing bullish signal
some items of note:
20MA is making a bullish cross now over the 50MA
strong run from October 35.6 low enjoyed pullback here
finding support from 50MA here at 39.5
somewhat early to tell if higher yields will be seen
vague signal with RSI at midrange 50
daily stochastic is still dropping
a momentum slingshot swing upward would have target 46-47
just worth a look though
/ jim
USdollar slowly breaking down, a continuing story
based as much upon fact and chart AS hope and expectation
today we have the buck under the October 1st low
it closed today at 106.1, with low of 105.8
Oct 1st support was 106.5
Bollinger Band was broken today, with lower band at 106.5
I do not present this info as UTTER BREAKDOWN
but rather as ongoing slowmotion erosion breakdown
relative strength is weakening badly
now in stochastic oversold territory, which could remain with us
next support is early Sept low of 105.4
we saw three knocks at the upper resistance levels near 109
and three failures, often a precursor of bigger decline
of the last 10 days, only two updays, 5 straight downers
20MA is just about ready to crossover 50MA
red dotted crossing blue solid
I think this BITCH has caught its bad breath enough to resume the downhill sprint
all fundamentals are aligned with downward resumption
federal deficits, trade gaps, expected lower rates
and the biggee -- double dip recession evidence all over
/ jim