Monday, November 04, 2002 4:08:30 PM
regardless of Fed Action, I expect stock selloff
no action: sell off due to refusal to support the economy and stocks, as we slidep perilously into recession once again
1/4 pt: sell off due to realization of its small impact, esp in light of 11 previous rate cuts that have left us vulnerable to a Double Dip (which is the norm, despite bullshit press/media utterances)
1/2 pt: sell off due to realization that the Fed has essentially used its entire quiver of cuts, with tragic little to show for its blunt tool approach in managing the world's largest economy
I regard the 1/2 pt decision as the most ominous for stocks
if a big cut, then the dollar falls down another 10-13% quickly, showing its extremely poor competitive stance visavis euro bonds, taking stocks with them as foreigners depart in larger droves... this mindless rally has offered foreigners a nice opportunity to exit at a higher price, thank you they say
I believe the dollar will be leading stocks now
at some point dictated once again by the Mortgage Backed Securities, the TENS will see a limit on lower bound yield, which will signal the bond TENS to cease & desist rallying
the USdollar is soon to be moving to CENTER STAGE
the USdollar will be the ultimate arbiter !!!
today the dollar gave back all gains, and has stubbornly refused over the past two weeks to join in the rally fun
today gold held its ground as stocks gave up the Dow +210
today golds reversed to register small gains
/ jim
p.s. USdollar chart for last three days
no action: sell off due to refusal to support the economy and stocks, as we slidep perilously into recession once again
1/4 pt: sell off due to realization of its small impact, esp in light of 11 previous rate cuts that have left us vulnerable to a Double Dip (which is the norm, despite bullshit press/media utterances)
1/2 pt: sell off due to realization that the Fed has essentially used its entire quiver of cuts, with tragic little to show for its blunt tool approach in managing the world's largest economy
I regard the 1/2 pt decision as the most ominous for stocks
if a big cut, then the dollar falls down another 10-13% quickly, showing its extremely poor competitive stance visavis euro bonds, taking stocks with them as foreigners depart in larger droves... this mindless rally has offered foreigners a nice opportunity to exit at a higher price, thank you they say
I believe the dollar will be leading stocks now
at some point dictated once again by the Mortgage Backed Securities, the TENS will see a limit on lower bound yield, which will signal the bond TENS to cease & desist rallying
the USdollar is soon to be moving to CENTER STAGE
the USdollar will be the ultimate arbiter !!!
today the dollar gave back all gains, and has stubbornly refused over the past two weeks to join in the rally fun
today gold held its ground as stocks gave up the Dow +210
today golds reversed to register small gains
/ jim
p.s. USdollar chart for last three days
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