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Very cool... glad to see the group is doing well.
No sir, I'm not in the chat. I pop in from now and then to share what I'm doing.
I have befriended an Aggie who tailgates with us now... He has his own algorithm that is amazing. I've bank rolled on a few of his calls. Typically, when he gets a 85% or greater signal from his algorithm, he alerts us.
I stick to Grainger, GSachs and SPY mostly. '
How are you?
DAN $20 March Calls
BMY $52.5 JAN calls
KMX $52.5 JAN calls
CDNS Dec calls at .35
CDNS Dec $13 calls for $.35....
Large volume of November $18 calls on NUAN
Picked up 30 NUAN NOV $18 calls today
Dimon is a piece of ****.... good!
I exited my SLV puts at .49 from an average of .24
Didn't want to play any further with Bernanke speaking.
I exited my SLV puts at .49 from an average of .24
Didn't want to play any further with Bernanke speaking.
I've been saying that for 3 years... glad to see someone else with clout saying it.
In decades past, we deregulated when we had monetary easing. Today, we are overregulating and passing the highest tax in American History (0Care). It suffocates job growth and investment in anything other than equities.
EOG, yeah you know me!
Great discussion Gentlemen... I tend to agree that the earliest we could be affected domestically is 2016. I think we have 5 years to right the course and if we are still deep in monetary easing and over regulation, we will have reached the pointbof no return. This doesnt mean it crashes in 2019... No, it will be a slow squeeze for another 7-10 years and the climax of the crash booms in the mid 20s. Remember consequences from fiscal policy lags 7-14 years.... See 2007-2010.
While Strauss-Howe weren't great economists, their generational theory is spot on. Have any of you read their work from 1995?
Exactly
Volume supporting the spike over 1600. Bought some TZA at 35.20 and some 36 calls for May 18.
Do you think the market will suddenly drop a very large amount without any real warning. Meaning one day it drops 10-20%? If you don't think that is likely to happen, then we don't really have much to worry about.
In response to the market breaks in October 1987 and October 1989, the New York Stock Exchange instituted circuit breakers to reduce volatility and promote investor confidence. By implementing a pause in trading, investors are given time to assimilate incoming information and the ability to make informed choices during periods of high market volatility. In 2012, in connection with its approval of the Regulation NMS Plan to Address Extraordinary Market Volatility, commonly referred to as the Limit Up – Limit Down Plan, the SEC approved amendments to Rule 80B (Trading Halts Due to Extraordinary Market Volatility) that revise the halt provisions and circuit-breaker levels. Amended Rule 80B is operative during the pilot period of the Limit Up – Limit Down Plan.
Rule 80B
Effective April 8, 2013, amended Rule 80B will be in effect. Amended Rule 80B replaces:
• the DJIA with the S&P 500 as the benchmark index for measuring a market decline;
• the quarterly calendar recalculation of Rule 80B triggers with daily recalculations; and
• the 10%, 20%, and 30% market decline percentages with 7%, 13%, and 20% market decline percentages.
Amended Rule 80B also modifies:
• the length of the trading halts associated with each market decline level; and
• the times when a trading halt may be triggered.
Specifically, the circuit-breaker halt for a Level 1 (7%) or Level 2 (13%) decline occurring after 9:30 a.m. Eastern and up to and including 3:25 p.m. Eastern, or in the case of an early scheduled close, 12:25 p.m. Eastern, would result in a trading halt in all stocks for 15 minutes. If the market declined by 20%, triggering a Level 3 circuit-breaker, at any time, trading would be halted for the remainder of the day.
A Level 1 or Level 2 halt can only occur once per trading day. For example, if a Level 1 Market Decline was to occur and trading was halted, following the reopening of trading, the NYSE would not halt the market again unless a Level 2 Market Decline was to occur. Likewise, following the reopening of trading after a Level 2 Market Decline, the NYSE would not halt trading again unless a Level 3 Market Decline were to occur, at which point, trading in all stocks would be halted until the primary market opens the next trading day.
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When they print money, that drives up asset prices. The market is composed of assets, they go up. So you are thinking the market could reach at least 18,000 before the end of 2013?
No, not a chance we see 18,000 before the end of 2013. I do think its certainly possible within the next 4-5 years.
Like I said earlier, the Fed printing money and choosing the large banks and select coprorations to give it to, allows for them to take cheap money and buy back shares. They aren't going to invest that in people, because the business leaders know that as long as the printing presses go on, inflation will set in eventually, and why take cheap money and get no return on it in the name of salaries. They are stocking their cash accounts for the future.
I had some Harvard MBA pie in the sky 20 something say something to me the other day in a board meeting. His question on the Fed was "well isn't the Fed handing out this money the same as Trickle Down Economics?"
I started laughing, because I couldn't fathom how someone with so much intelligence be so ignorant. No, the macro business environment when discussing trickle down economics relates to making the tax code simple, lowering taxes and making the long term vision for businesses clear so they can invest in people and R&D.
Today's environment is the exact opposite. Businesses do not want to invest in people and new capital expenditures because the overregulation and interventionist policy of the Fed and D.C. (from both parties) make the long term vision extremely muddled, and business leaders know that D.C. is going to try and ramrod through more taxes on the working class to pay for this printing press spree. On top of that, I haven't even approached Obamacare which is the largest tax hike in American history, and one that Democrats are saying is a complete mess right now. Hell, even Harry Reid says it sucks, and you know that's bad.
In our past, when our Govt used monetary easing, we also deregulated to allow for GDP growth and job investments. Today, we are doing the exact opposite. We are monetary easing and overregulating in the name of the EPA, Obamacare, Sarbanes-Oxley, Frank-Dodd, etc. etc. This isn't an Obama/Democrat thing, it was a Bush/Republican thing too in the 2000s. It also reared its ugly head in Clinton's last term. We've been taking the poison pill for going on 20 years now.
But it's obvious enough to me net/net the FED is helping, without them we would have entered a long term depression in 2009. People in the whole world would have been much worse off today.
People would have been much worse off in 09-10, but they'd be fine today. No, had we let the market correct itsself, we would have had a couple years of a hard market and would have roared back (not only in the market) but in the job sector too. All the Fed is doing is putting money in the pockets of the select corporations and the traders who know how to trade this market.
I'm not going to lie, I've done well in the market, but I hate the Fed policy for my children and for my golden years as a retired citizen.
Historically speaking, volume is spotty and that allows for more swings. More manipulation and more fed infused money equals a great volatility, but one with an upward trendline.
Yeah, revenues are light despite the Fed infusion....
Anyone who runs a business and commits capital for a living knows all of this and has known it for a long time.
The current Fed plan will not increase the demand for labor or create an environment for growth. The economy needs to bring certainty to tax rates and lower the cost of hiring a new employee (See Hong Kong's 95% tax compliance due to the flat tax). We are currently experiencing the exact opposite.
Everyone who runs a business or commits capital for a living is well aware.
Only the central bankers and business press (some of them) are unaware and puzzled.
We need to lower and fix taxes and lower the cost of hiring a new employees. Otherwise, you get terrible growth and NO new job creation.
By giving large corporations free money (and I emphasize large corporations), Bernanke has essentially made it easy for corporations to make profits without working for it. Corporations can:
1) Borrow cheaply to purchase their own shares of stocks benefiting the in crowd.
2) Build factories overseas while shutting down domestic manufacturing
3) Invest in overseas securities that yield higher rates.
4) Pay executives exorbitant bonuses based on inflated stock prices
Not only are large corporations reaping all of the benefits but small corporations (the real job creators) are being demolished because they do not have access to the free money.
How is all of this being financed. By increasing the debt, eliminating all interest payments to savers, decreasing pay to workers, increasing hours worked, yada yada yada, wash rinse, repeat.
What the Fed is hoping for is for our Govt to figure out the new reality of bringing up the macro outlook on jobs, growth, etc. before the bottom drops out because of the currency devaluation domestically and abroad.
Knowing our Govt in modern times, I wouldn't hold your breath. These fiscal policies typically lag 7-14 years, so if we haven't figured it out by 2018, the 20s will be a dark dark dark decade.
Either we cut off the presses now, or we figure out this new normal on the macro level while the Fed keeps printing.
Oh, I think AAPL will continue to rise in the short to mid term, but there will be red days. My $445 puts ended up being a blessing today, and I expect that the $445s will look mightily attractive in the morning, and quite frankly ITM.
Things don't move in a straight line. Just because the macro outlook for AAPL is positive, doesn't mean you can't be bearish intraday.
I'm sitting on a mountain of them over here. :)
I'm loaded up on 445 puts in the 447.50 range. Took out 73 of them. Looking for a nice scalp.
IWM and SPY have very circular patterns on the reddest days and greenest days. Good set ups on the days we are expecting a move.
AAPL was the gift that kept on giving today. So predictable unlike most days. Round tripped it 9 times for a $4700 profit.
Fed announcement in half hour. Picked up SPY 159s AT .71
Congrats to you as well. Could go either way the rest of today although I think the fun is done.
Oh, its been a fantastic morning!!! Made hay on TZA, FAZ, GS, AAPL, SPY
Bears are finally showing up. Doesn't mean that today magically begins a bear market but it does mean the upside is no longer a gravy train ride.
TZA jumped 40 cents in under 5 minutes and three 1M share dumps on SPY by huge bear players killed bounce attempt.
Depends on if our flash over 1600 is volume driven or not.
I'm about to bank bigtime on my puts!
Go away Bernanke, you're drunk. Lets get a honest correction. :)
If ADP says 119k, REVISED will be 100kish
April Job Numbers 102,000
Wow... Yeah game changer for sure
Yeesh... you're in no mans land right now... good luck!
Will be a very interesting morning.
Which leads me to rule #1 while trading during a QE....
DON'T FIGHT THE FED! You'll get buried.
Very smart and dead on with his take.
It's a game of hot potato and the last one in the midst of QE when the bottom falls out is the biggest loser.
The globalists will eventually win if we continue to be weak and irresponsible. 16 years of Bush and Obama with a very cancerous Congress is a disaster, and much of it was orchestrated to harm our sovereign future(fiscally speaking).
The Woodlands, just north of Houston. Now home to Exxon!
Get ready for a cool end of the week in Midland. 90s tomorrow and 20s/30s on Thursday/Friday.
West Texans are some good people. I grew up in East Tx, but I've hopped around Texas and parts of the midwest/east.
rejected today.... Lets see what tomorrow morning holds. If we get a trip top tomorrow morning and it comes down quickly, get short for a nice quick ride.
I'm sure the Fed will push it over the top though with the funny money and we'll be in the 160s.
Schiff called 2007 in early 2006 as well as one of my closest friends who is a retired hedgie.
I've invited Schiff to move to Texas. He'd win office here.
Schiff is a common sense man, who is freaking brilliant.
Usmanov dipping his fingers into AAPL. The Soros protege doing his part to take over America as well. LOL
I bought 60 of those suckers at .84... lets go!
A flash tease... Lets see if she gives it up.
I'll let you know when my trading signals show over 80%