All posts are for your entertainment only. Buy and sell at your own risk. In other words, I do my thing - you do your thing.
|Twitter Profile:||Temporarily Unavailable|
|Follow on Twitter:||Follow @ Temporarily Unavailable|
That don’t make sense to my brain. A rising dollar is deflationary, as the currency becomes stronger the price of assets become cheaper. So why are we seeing inflation with a higher dollar? Because inflation is higher on reasons other than dollar printing, and those in the USD tend to be smart money. I believe what we’re seeing is the tail end of a decade+ cycle of low interest rates, and the result is a 1920-21 or 1980 type of deflation. What often happens in these cycles is people find ways to remove their cash as they hedge inflation, ie buying homes, gold.. illiquid assets, long term bonds, etc. once the flip happens, there won’t be cash on the sidelines to take advantage of the cheap prices. This will be an opportunity akin to 2008, 1980, etc.
Looks like the house and senate are trying to close a deal to avoid gov shutdown on Sunday. I’d love to get some capitulation to play a bounce but at the moment it seems like this 423 level could be a temp low especially if they actually pull it off, or even just the rumorville. But even after that we have a lot of deflationary events off in the horizon so just a temporary thing for me
In my opinion one can get short here, and scale into any rally. A rally up to 440 spot would be ideal but this market falls fast. Probably going to make a decision near term based on if gov shutdown happens or not. But medium term we have the effects of higher rates kicking in now.. which is roughly 14 months from the start of the hikes.
I had quite a few RGTI from .40s, sold the last when it did nothing on that news, and didn’t bounce much with market. Too much risk in this market right now. People throwing out symbols like they’re in everything. Hope we’re all high cash cause this market seems to be held up on very few while 80% of the market is dead. Very odd. Looking forward to when market is actually bullish one day
Personally I think market is set up for a 50-70% decline in the near future but if I wake up everyday and think that’s the case I will trade that idea and get scrambled in all the ups and downs, push and pulls.
My overall plan is just to sell a failure immediately after a rally and see how far it can go without coming back to me. Eventually, I hopefully will have timed the new black swan if one were to happen.
Check out the $SPY board. They predict a Black Swan every 2 weeks. Sure feels like it’s coming though. or something along the lines of the complete opposite nobody expects.
I’d love a gift sell off to capitulate this terrible market to get long. High yields is just no good for speculation.
The guy with all caps and red text who wouldn’t ever shut up about the market collapse finally gave up looking for the short right at the top, and now, in his red text all caps fashion, just says to play what’s in front. I’ll take a 10% decline my way over kids yelling on message boards