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agreed - IMO though, if they made .01 a share this year, we'd all make a ton of money and this stock would skyrocket...
they'd need to make $20 million in earnings, which would equate to about $100 million in revenue...
IMO, i've always been told to bet on the jockey and not the horse - Allie Mallad may not have the best product on the market, but he can sell, and that's why i could see EESO take off...
all's it will take is a little attention to Wowgreen come September and everyone is going to want to get in on EESO. i'd really like to get revenue numbers on Wowgreen tho - i could see them making 500 million in first year - imho, the more he preaches on cancer, household moms and toxic children, the more it's gonna sell, even if the product is inferior
i've seen posts on the internet that WG is wanting Oprah to endorse the product - if that happened, forget about it
when jared says "below $65 million projection" - does he mean that he's close or around there? does he give any hint at all or is that all that he says?
can anyone confirm the rumor that Wowgreen was behind $27 million to EESO - or identify where that # came from?
i'd like to see monthly ad revenues they been getting on the Interaction software - has anyone asked about those figures?
i agree, this sounds great - not quite an oracle executive like at salesforce, but it says a lot - unfortunately i doubt the market's going to react to it - i don't think people in penny stock land react to new hires, just outlandish revenue projections and fake buyouts
provide a link
yeah - could we get a summary of DD from Pilotheating and an update from Wowman on how things are going with WowGreen?
yeah - from what i've read, i really believe they probably can on the Interaction software, but as far as any profitability from the Ascend product - i think that will come farther down the line...
i think it's just a matter of two different business models, see the immediate profitability of plentyoffish.com, craigslist, etc. vs. salesforce.com and all the other SaaS companies on the link I gave that have a lot thinner profit margins...
to think that F3 is making $2 million on its Interaction software really makes me liken this company to early stage plentyoffish-type model, and it could easily go viral - as in exponential growth with really high profit margins
yeah - i'm just warning that i don't think the numbers will come out as rosy as some people think, but i liken the Interaction product to a facebook, craigslist, plentoffish-esque business model, and i think it'll be a cash cow...
i saw in a pr that they were thinking of initiating a sales force for the Interaction software, but i think once the product hits a critical mass, it'll have the type of "increasing returns" while simultaneously lowering fixed costs that sites like facebook and plentoffish.com have...that's the business model that can make a company rich fairly quickly
as far as the ascend product goes, i see it more as requiring a lot more costs that typical SaaS on-demand software companies have, and a thin profit margin (apparently, from the blogs that i've read, because the customer acquisition costs have been so high as its hard to steel market share from microsoft, oracle, etc.)
i'm just now learning about the products though, so if anyone can fill me in on how they think F-3 is using its sales force, whether for the Interaction or Ascend software, and the amount F-3 believes its Ascend product will require continuous, ongoing support staff with its clients -
i'm likening the Ascend product to the typical CRM software issued by companies like salesforce.com - is that right?
maybe, and i've seen that analysis before, and it makes sense, but i just don't see what differentiates ftch's ascend and interaction software as some elite business model among all SaaS business models...
i'd really want to know what exactly Connor meant by "burn rate" - whether that includes only variable costs and isn't considering fixed costs would be my guess, but cash burn rate is universally an all-encompassing term.
i'll probably email the company to get my answer, but it's kinda hard to believe that F3 has a waaay better business model than the pioneers in the industry.
they are small, and they don't take salaries, but research plentyofish's business model, which is just some guy setting up an internet site and getting huge traffic and advertising revenues...and he only has a 50 percent profit margin
http://www.inc.com/magazine/20090101/and-the-money-comes-rolling-in.html
believe you me, i'm all for this company making a 70 percent profit margin and a ton of money, but the question needs to be posed as to why their net profit margin will be so much higher than competitors - and obviously, i'd love to see the income statement of any company that has ever made 70 percent net profit in a year - why is ftch the exception?
interesting powerpoint on the SaaS industry: http://www.opexengine.com/images/Strategic_Operating_Benchmarks_for_SaaS_Companies1.ppt
slide 13 seems to indicate that its a rarity for companies with only 30-50 million in revenue to derive a profit...
this page has a lot of good information on different SaaS companies and when they typically become profitable and typical R&D, S&M, G&A ratios: http://www.opexengine.com/softwarereports.html
i don't want to burst everyone's bubble on this board, but no SaaS company has ever had a NET profit margin of 70 percent. They have a GROSS profit margin of 70 percent, but not NET.
http://www.warriorpoint.com/blog/2008/06/27/larry-ellison-saas-is-not-profitable/
So I really don't think we should be expecting 70 percent net profit, or 1.4 million, on $2 million revenue in 2009. Note that the company has not said anything supporting a 70 percent net profit margin.
If this company has that kind of margin, then it defies all known business models to date. Someone would have to explain what makes it different from Salesforce.com that allows it a 67 percent higher net profit margin.
I do think the Interaction software is comparable to plentyoffish, facebook, twitter ad-generating revenue models and really believe that could have a pretty high profit margin. But plentyoffish.com is about as lean an organization as you can get, only 3 employees, and generates all its revenue through Google's AdWord, AND IT ONLY HAS A 50 PERCENT PROFIT MARGIN.
So, as a potential investor, I was initially excited about $1.4 million in net profit this year, but I think some people need to do some DD before making evaluations.
Does anyone know if F3 generates the advertisements through their own software system or do they just use Google AdWord to display advertisements on the Interaction program?
wowman, any news on distribution? whether revenue benchmarks have been hit?
wowman - please post as often as possible
so says Allie...go to WowGreen.net and see how he differentiates his products from the rest...if Allie says it, then i don't necessarily believe it, but that doesn't really matter...IMO, the only issue is whether he can sell it
selling Wowgreen products will be all about marketing and using scare tactics about the toxicity of cleaners
i'm not saying Jared's product is 'special' - I'm saying Allie said so, and whether or not it's true or not, i don't care, all I care about is whether it sells, and I think it can.
so, in your opinion, or anyone else's, do we see Allie Mallad attempt to develop his own proprietary formulas down the line?
IMO, that's not Mallad's domain -- he's a great marketer, and knows the ins and outs of the franchise relationship, but i can't see him hiring a chemical engineering team to develop their own chemical formulations...
then again, i wish we could get some history from Jared about how exactly he's developed his own proprietary formula...Allie seems to confirm its uniqueness, but who's the genius that created the blend?
slow sales is something i can deal with, but i see allie as the big player...what we have though is allie marketing off jared's proprietary blend as something very unique - i just hope it stays that way...
that's a good point flo-bee, but i was under the impression, maybe naively, that wowgreen wasn't interested in developing its own proprietary blend - does it have an R&D department?
i'd absolutely hate for EESO to go into direct competition with Wowgreen - u see Allie Mallad's little presentation on Wowgreen, and he's a great salesman...
it made me think that even if Wowgreen's products are inferior, the scare tactics alone will help start a trend...all the stay-at-home mom's have a high chance of developing cancer due to toxic cleaners and their children have a higher chance of cancer as well -- that, IMO, will start a trend.
Aim at mom's since they buy the stuff and scare the hell out of them...that's a product that will sell if it's remotely close in quality to competitive products.
but, can anybody answer if Wowgreen has its own R&D department that is working on a proprietary blend? i sure hope jared would have protected against that before giving Wowgreen access to his products...
flo-bee - please elaborate on: it looks more like the other way around. wowgreen bottles it themselves and only "licenses" (though they supposedly only pay at year's end + 1 month) those formulas which they haven't already tweaked (and now presumably own/don't pay for). there is little legal recourse for eeso's "proprietary" (unpatented, non-secret) blends.
yeah, has anybody done any analysis on this at all? how many distributors does Allie want to have by next year? and how big of a company does he want to have?
this, to me, is completely verified and all the reason i need to invest in this company...
i've always been taught to bet on the jockey and not the horse...i'm willing to bet on Allie...
and for those that think Allie may be shorting Jared, isn't Jared a necessary link in the chain? if Jared pulled out, doesn't his whole operation crumble?
Can somebody explain exactly which products we are shipping to WowGreen?
My take is that Jared isn't receiving his funds fast enough - not that he can't pay off vendors - that vendors aren't paying him...which leads to liabilities in the short-term that he may need to pay and possibly doesn't have the funds for...for a company that's supposed to grow exponentially, i really don't think it's surprising that they've stretched themselves to the extent that if they don't recover revenues quickly enough, they may not be able to pay off debts.
I really don't have a problem with it if that's the case, but a promise to the shareholders to disclose any issuance before actually issued, or a long-term promise to buy back the shares would be nice...of course, i, along with everyone else, have discounted jared's trustworthiness after the recent issue.
i think jared may have spread himself too thin - he was counting on some cash flow from accounts receivable and it didn't come through - so apparently the only thing he thought of was to increase the shares, which leads me to believe that he will issue shares, but it's possible he could buy them right back - small companies can go bankrupt really quick
it may be though, that this situation, or the past month, has led him to believe that he shouldn't be CEO while EESO grows - the way he looked tonight on the shareholders' address tells me he's not getting much sleep at all, and he really hasn't dealt with this situation very professionally - which, if he looks at his ability as a leader, i'm guessing he's doubting his ability and questioning whether he wants to put up with this stuff for the next couple years
what impressed me on his last conference call was the humility he had in the openness of considering no longer being CEO of EESO -- he seems like he has the ability to detach himself from being king over the corporation
PLUS, LET'S NOT FORGET, SOME IDIOTS ARE SENDING HIM DEATH THREATS - i doubt his family's going to be very supportive of him proceeding (not that i'm for the buyout or anything, just observing, although i am a SH) - that would get me to doubt my initiative to continue being CEO
i thought what he was doing with the shareholders was very innovative - but i think we're now seeing the effects of having a start-up company that can't afford an adequate pr system for youtubing and contacting shareholders as much as possible during an accelerated growth phase of the company -- it's extremely difficult
i actually felt sorry for jared tonight - when he was talking about his longs turning on him so quickly, you could tell his voice got pretty soft and was on the verge of crying - i believe he's trying but i'm sure the last few months have got to be taking an emotional toll on him...
he's either a sociopath bent on destroying his life and that of his family or a genuine human being that almost cries when loyalists turn on him ...i'm going with the latter...whether that means he's a good CEO, idk, but i do think it means that he's trying to be a truthful as possible...
why did he come back from south america?
there's a difference in terminology depending on what type of transaction is being made --
if its sale of a good, then battle of forms applies, and without going into much detail, if jared made an offer it would be considered a "counteroffer" of new terms and conditions
under common law, then a "mirror image" rule applies and, if jared made a new offer, it would be considered a new offer
but even to a potential lawyer, who cares? the fact that he put "counteroffer" in his pr means absolutely nothing and proves absolutely nothing
yeah -- good post -- best thing about it was that it wasn't emotional -- it was a rational, well thought out post -- we need more of these posts on the board.
Can you explain how EESO solicited interest from Saudi Arabia and the Jordanian government?
i'm not skeptical EESO is a solid company that will get some contracts, but does the PR have to mention the King of Jordan?
the minute you start touting yourself off as being the next big thing in pinkie world is the minute it seems like your just playing to shareholder's naivity...
most of the PR's have been a lot more objective and not so high strung in their praise of forward projections or in their contacts...
i'm hoping that by the mention of the "king of jordan" we're talking about the "government of jordan" -- not that the king actually cares about his water enough to say, "oh, fort wayne company with chemicals, let's get a contract" --
if a company has a product that the king, himself, of jordan cares enough to relay the message to this company, then it better be revolutionary -- as far as i know, i hear nothing about a revolutionary product that is going to rid the world of pollution in its waters
is "bacterial remediation" supposed to rid the waters of their pollution? as far as i know, nobody is getting sick because of the water in the middle east -- if they want to start selling a product that gets rid of bacteria in water, they might want to start focusing their efforts on Africa
i almost blame Mark for the lack of objectivity in these PRs -- but i think that's the case with all pink sheet stocks -- but the words "ammunition" "home run" "king of jordan" are a little unnecessary --
maybe it's a little cyclical -- everybody on this board seems to get so emotional day-to-day, and these pink sheet companies feel their PRs have to elicit the right amount of emotion;
big board PRs are a lot more objective and carry with them a lot more credibility --
i'm not skeptical, just critical
when you mention the "king of jordan" in your PR -- you should be aware that a lot of people are going to be skeptical -- they say "one such contract, albeit domestic, has led to interest..." -- you can't be that vague -- explain why this contract has led to interest from the Jordanian government, e.g. contract with Dow or some other chemical company that performs "bacterial remediation" work for Jordanian government has led to possible contract -- don't just mention Saudi Arabia and the King of Jordan in the same sentence without explaining how that came about...
and really, don't mention the King of Jordan unless he's actually spoken with you -- say "Jordanian government" -- i understand it's a monarchy, but say a governmental organization like the "jordan department of agriculture"
again, not skeptical, just critical
i hope we get rich too -- but what you spoke of, things like, "ground breaking green biotechnology," "explosive retail sales force just getting it's legs," "verbal indicators.." -- is all sales talk. It's just pitching the business, and every business does that with any investor.
We don't have a solid financial statement or analyst following this company that can give an accurate valuation of the company. You can go to any pink sheet stock and hear sales talk. Very few will actually give you hard earnings.
EESO made a profit last year, which is a reason i invested. We all have to take into account the projections and hope those materialize, but a prospective purchaser is going to perform an accurate valuation.
Venture capitalists, investment bankers, they all run into companies that project 400 percent growth for the next five years, and they have to say no, let's be a little bit realistic here.
I think a prospective purchaser will look at EESO for its potential, but discount the possible risk factors associated with the business, and say, show me the contracts that you've received, your profit margin, etc.
.50 would mean this company is worth $1 billion. That means the company believes it will be making around $150 million IN PROFIT (not just revenue) in the next 2-3 years. Not likely in my book -- and I don't think any prospective purchaser is going to believe $150 million in profit within the next 2-3 years is 100 percent certain.
Do I think we could see .20 cents -- especially if there's a bidding war? Definitely. And when's the last time you've seen a company go up 500 percent higher than its initial offer?
pray tell -- what are the indications this stock is expecting a .50 buyout offer?
yeah, it's called a no-shop clause -- it occurs quite a bit and is pretty routine, but my guess is nothing much was in writing between these two; it was probably a pretty bare boned letter of intent...
if the first offer was from a household name, then it makes sense that, all of a sudden, other smaller players look at EESO as an attractive investment
i don't disagree with a lot of the things you say, but how is EESO to get its financing?
once these small companies get onto these pink sheet boards, they can't go seek out any venture capitalists -- they've mostly got to have common stock and that's it
so what are you going to do to fund a company besides dilute shares? go to a bank? you don't want that -- periodic interest payments and debt covenants inhibit growth...
get an angel investor? that means they issue more preferred stock and take ownership away from common shareholders...
i do question though any company that goes immediately to the pinks instead of seeking out venture capital money first
what is the math? do you mind sharing what wowgreen's projected revenues are? -- and how much of EESO's products account for WowGreen's product portfolio?
actually i was reading an article yesterday that found CEOs of private companies are usually over 50% off (an independent third-party valuation) when they tell you what their business is worth --
i'm sure most believe their business is worth a lot more than it actually is -- let's hope Jared's not in that camp, but then again, he's already said he believes the share price should be at .50-$3
i wish we had an investment banker or other independent third-party that could give a valuation of the business...hopefully that's there and jared is realistic about expectations of the negotiating process
if he won't settle for anything less than .25, i doubt a deal's going to get done
yeah, which is kinda why i have to take my chances and say jared can't be such a low-life -- maybe i'm naive, but i can't really see jared being that type of guy; maybe i'm a poor judge of character tho
have any of you guys done DD into Jared's background at all? I know he went to Rosedale Bible College --
I dug something up, and I feel a little intrusive posting it (and if this is too intrusive, then by all means, delete it) -- i feel like jared has his life, and he's not scamming anyone...but sometimes there's a little doubt, and i thought i'd post this to let everyone know...
my sentiment is that jared is a great guy -- if he is a con, then i probably wouldn't be able to trust anyone at all, ever again...but then again, i'd probably feel like the guy pulled off the greatest con ever, and deserves my money more than me.
the guy really doesn't sound like a snake-oil salesman or a born-again christian...he sounds like a genuine guy...
Jared and Jolene (Mullett) Hochstedler (j...@hochstedlers.com) Attended 1993 1994
Jared and I still live in Ft. wayne, In. In 2001 we moved to North Carolina because of Jared's job change. We then moved back to Ft. Wayne, less then a year later, because the company was moving to Ft. Wayne. It was good to be home again. Right before and during our moving back, Jared was very sick. The doctors had diagnosed him with Hotchkins Lymphoma. But said they wanted to do further testing. After further testing 2 days later (and much prayer from family and friends) what they had seen before was gone! Which we know and believe was complete healing from God!!! He was left with a large blood clot in his lower abdomen, and was hospitalized for several days. Since then he is doing great. What an awesome God we have!!! Our kids are doing great and growing fast. Cameron is 5 and our daughter Selah is almost 4. Jared and I are on the worship team at our church and love it! That's the latest on us. If you are ever in the area, please stop in. Blessings to you all!
Updated Wednesday, February 11, 2004
http://www.rosedalebible.org/af/view.php?sy=1990&ey=1994
yeah, we're still down for the week, so there's not that much to be happy about yet...
as far as the buyout being confirmed, would love to see a huge short squeeze and massive panic -- does anyone know how many shares EESO is short?
pinksheets has 670,000 as of April 15th, is there a more up-to-date count?
670,000 shares isn't much, but would be extremely hard to buy back if they waited until the disclosure
you've got to name me one big board stock/acquiree that actually went higher than the acquisition price disclosed --
IMO, it just doesn't make rational sense, you have to have a premium to the current market price (before the disclosure) or investors aren't going to approve the deal, and after the disclosure of the buyout price, who would pay more for the stock than the acquisition price of the acquiree?
how'd they work out -- i know the rules for NYSE, NASDAQ stocks are that there's usually a 5 percent discount due to the fact that the deal may not go through...
i haven't followed a pink buyout, but i can imagine a short-squeeze or massive panick buying that pushes the price over the actual buyout price -- has that actually happened?
posters can ask any question they want -- insiders can't give out non-public information or they're violating securities laws...
idk -- i haven't seen a securities case, but any inuendo made my mark, IMHO, may be considered non-public knowledge...but it's all about whether SEC would enforce or not, and pinks get away with anything
i'm pretty sure that'd be an obvious insider trading...i wonder how questionable even sending emails is -- if it's sent to one, it should be sent to all, otherwise, it goes against having an efficient market and is insider trading that the SEC would want to clamp-down on
most likely we don't test those ranges -- there's always a discount in the market for the risk that the deal doesn't actually go through, and seeing as this is a pink, the discount might be pretty extensive...probably, at a .15 buyout, i would see us at .1 - .12 -- i definitely wouldn't think that we would see .14...
but then again i might be wrong, there may be a huge short squeeze and the price inflates -- which is something i wouldn't have a problem with
i'm trying to follow along here -- who is VERT -- a moneymaker? what does he have to do with the buyout?