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8:39 Sold CL @ $70.51 from $69.60
Dollar 500 Tick:
That important macro inverse relationship b/w crude & the dollar d astutely noted is a key piece of evidence, if you will, in my technical short-term bullish crude view.
Pro (institutions & algos noted by blue bars) activity in a short-term top triggered an exhaustion price pattern (green dot).
Lowered stop to $69. I want to have the flexibility to possibly add on a dip(s) because I like the set up for a short-term (hours, days, maybe a week or so) long swing.
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I did that MTF breakdown before futures trading opened but my short-term technical bullish thesis in crude remains.
On the options side CLF calls are at the top of my shopping list:
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Sure Thing! Thanks for noting that critical $102.80 level. The fact pros are active near such a critical level strengthens my conviction that short-term the dollar looks ready to pull back as crude looks ready to bounce. I'll know quick if I'm wrong b/c $102.80 isn't far.
Dollar 1.5K Tick:
Pros are active in a short-term top. BPA (BetterProAm) notes they are long with a trailing stop level @ $101, but based on the location of their activity in my opinion they are on net, taking profits/going short. They had plenty of opps to go long under $101 last week, they passed on
Dollar 4.5K Tick:
This is unusual. Note the vertical red line that just printed. It's supposed to be a horizontal line that notes what the pros are doing: red if short, green if long, and what their trailing stop level is. It's clearly red, the dollar is going up, and the trailing stop level of pro shorts is TBD.
"Good things happen @ triples."
They sure do!
Following 5/10 pro (institutions & algos noted by blue bars) activity into a dip, 5 triple buy signals printed on the 500 tick when NG broke key pivots to the upside, the most recent, 14 seconds after the opening bell 5/12, was good for a nice quick pop. Pros stepped in again into the dip over the 100 ema (yellow line) before close.
Crude MTF Breakdown:
Legend:
Blue bars note the activity of institutions & algos.
Yellow bars with "R" below note heavy pockets of retail sell chasing activity, and vice versa for yellow bars with "R" above. They are called RAMBO price patterns: "Reversal of amateur breakout."
Horizontal lines of varying thickness: Notable pivots, the thicker the more important.
Green Background: Demand Zone/Support area
Red Background: Supply Zone/Resistance area
Buy "warning" - print when a key pivot breaks to the upside in a demand zone - shown by timestamped dotted vertical green lines
Sell "warning" - print when a key pivot breaks to the downside in a supply zone - shown by timestamped dotted vertical red lines
Thin red lines: notable trailing stop levels of pro shorts
Thin green lines: notable trailing stop levels of pro longs
65K tick: Crude is currently below vwap (purple line) & all key emas (10 - 200) that are now resistance, with the 5/4 low noted as support by the horizontal green line @ $67.47.
36K tick: Exhaustion selling (red dot) was followed by bullish divergence (blue dot) @ the 5/3 low under $64. The blue dot itself was an aggressive long signal.
The exhaustion selling (red dot) also noted on the 18K tick 5/3 made the aforementioned bullish divergence @ the 5/3 low noted on the 36K tick, a less aggressive long signal.
The 13.5K tick notes the 5/3 pro dip buying that triggered the buy warning when crude broke a key pivot to the upside 5/5. The fact the 5/9 bearish RAMBO pattern @ the 200 ema (aqua line) was a surgical short signal was an indication of a strong bearish trend. The 5/12 flush price pattern (salmon dot) is a heads-up crude may be ready to bounce.
The 4.5K tick shows the bullish RAMBO quartet 5/11 was followed 5/12 by support discovery noted by the thick horizontal green line @ $70.
TTD MTF Breakdown:
Blue bars note the activity of institutions & algos.
Yellow bars with "R" below note heavy pockets of retail sell chasing activity, and vice versa for yellow bars with "R" above. They are called RAMBO price patterns: "Reversal of amateur breakout."
Horizontal lines of varying thickness: Notable pivots, the thicker the more important.
Green Background: Demand Zone/Support area
Red Background: Supply Zone/Resistance area
Buy "warning" - print when a key pivot breaks to the upside in a demand zone - shown by timestamped dotted vertical green lines
Sell "warning" - print when a key pivot breaks to the downside in a supply zone - shown by timestamped dotted vertical red lines
Thin red lines: notable trailing stop levels of pro shorts
Thin green lines: notable trailing stop levels of pro longs
The 18K tick notes vwap (purple line) as overhead supply and the 5/10 high as short-term resistance @ $71.29 with all emas as key support levels.
The 13.5K tick notes the 2/16 high as short term resistance via the thin horizontal line @ $67.35.
The 9K tick notes support discovery (where TTD caught a bid) via the tiny green dots @ $61.94 above the 100 ema (yellow line) @ $61.03 & below a cluster of dynamic resistance including vwap (purple line) @ $63.05 and the 10 ema (white line) just above @ $63.36.
The 4.5K tick notes the pro activity: first over the 200 ema (aqua line) 5/11 then over the 100 ema (yellow line) 5/12.
The 1.5K tick notes the pro activity at and near the lows 5/11 & 5/12 triggered twin flush price patterns (salmon dots).
Key Short-term Levels Above:
vwap (purple line) @ $62.81
multi-week resistance @ $63.19
Below:
Short-term support @ $61.94
5/11 lod @ $60.56
CLF MTF Breakdown:
Legend:
Blue bars note the activity of institutions & algos.
Yellow bars with "R" below note heavy pockets of retail sell chasing activity, and vice versa for yellow bars with "R" above. They are called RAMBO price patterns: "Reversal of amateur breakout."
Horizontal lines of varying thickness: Notable pivots, the thicker the more important.
Green Background: Demand Zone/Support area
Red Background: Supply Zone/Resistance area
Buy "warning" - print when a key pivot breaks to the upside in a demand zone - shown by timestamped dotted vertical green lines
Sell "warning" - print when a key pivot breaks to the downside in a supply zone - shown by timestamped dotted vertical red lines
Thin red lines: notable trailing stop levels of pro shorts
Thin green lines: notable trailing stop levels of pro longs
The 36K tick notes CLF's 35% + haircut since February & multi-month support @ $14.27.
The 18k tick notes a couple pockets of retail selling in March.
The 13.5K tick notes another pocket of retail selling 4/25.
The 9K tick again notes a pocket of retail selling 4/25 followed by pro activity at the same level the following session. Multi-month support is again noted @ $14.27.
The 3K tick notes that in addition to the heavy pocket of retail selling also noted on the 9K tick, professionals were active in the low $15s 4/25.
The 1.5K & 1K tick note more professional activity 5/12 that made a second consecutive higher low. The trailing stop level of the pro long dip buyers is noted @ $14.48.
The 1K tick again notes the pro activity 5/12 that made a second consecutive higher low and twin bullish RAMBOs 5/4 at the same level as more pro activity that same session. The fact the bullish RAMBO patterns were nearly surgical long entries in the low $14s is strongly indicative of a very bullish tape. Multi-week support is noted @ $14.23.
Yes, gold is definitely in an uptrend but I 'm looking to capitalize on short term technical moves, like the possible current pullback:
5/4 gold failed to confirm the $2085 5/3 tap by making a lower high marked with both a bearish RAMBO (yellow bar with "R" above) & bearish divergence (yellow dot) @ about $2070. Then, right after NFP 5/5, pros (blue bars) immediately started piling in short. Now, gold is about to test the 200 ema (aqua line) @ $2030 and could very well reconfirm its bullish intent to retest $2085 and even break $2100.
We'll see. I locked in profits on most of my GLD puts right @ open 5/5, but I'm riding some freebie $185 5/12s.
My how things change, after a decade where no one gave a sh*t, PPI and especially CPI are now like the market super bowl every month.
Barry noted a potential long set up in wheat, which makes perfect sense since wheat had been moving inversely to the rise in rates since last year. But with the Fed, much closer to the end, than the beginning of its rate hikes, wheat is finally catching a bid: I won't go through the whole MTF breakdown showing the clear wheat/interest rate inverse relationship (due your own dd), but here's the clear long set up on the wheat 13.5K tick:
1) A couple bullish RAMBOs 4/25
2) Pro activity 5/3 to 5/5 over the 10 ema (white line) that made a higher low
3) Wheat broke the 30 ema (red line) to the upside
4) Wheat is currently testing the 50 ema (green line) to the upside
As an options trader, I like DBA calls as a way to play the current move in wheat. For swing trades like this, I like to go out at least a month plus, so I'm looking @ the DBA $22 6/16 calls.
Gold 18K Tick:
The 5/3 $2085 tap invalidated the brewing triple top but was at risk of becoming a short-term blow off top if the 4/13 high of $2063.40, could not be rebroken to the upside, which is what happened after gold was unable to definitively reclaim the aforementioned key pivot before dropping even further after NFP 5/5. To be clear, gold is still in a short-term uptrend, but the trend strength is questionable.
Some Key Pivots to the upside:
$2028.80 - 50 ema (green line)
$2031.30 - 30 ema (red line)
$2063.40 - 4/13 high
$2068.10 - 5/4 high
$2085.50 - 5/3 high, needs to break to the upside soon to confirm it was not a short-term blow off top
Downside:
$2022 - 100 ema (yellow line)
$2012 - 200 ema (aqua line)
$2007 - 5/5 low
$1986 - static multi-week support
$1934 - pro long trailing stop level, a major pivot
EDIT 500 Tick:
EDIT'S very bullish, this is just an under the hood look at who was doing what and at what price during it's explosive move that yielded mulit-bagger calls profits Friday. Pros (blue bars noting activity of institutions and algos) were both buying the $10 break then taking profits over $10.40 as long chasers (yellow bar with "R" above) were piling it. This is short term price action; my bigger picture technical thesis is Friday's move established a strong bullish trend and pullbacks are now buying opportunities.
Gold 18K Tick:
The 5/3 $2085 tap invalidated the brewing triple top but was at risk of becoming a short-term blow off top if the 4/13 high of $2063.40 wasn't definitively reclaimed to the upside, which is indeed what happened 5/4 after gold was unable to definitively reclaim the aforementioned key pivot before dropping even further after NFP 5/5. To be clear, gold is still in a short-term uptrend, but the trend strength is questionable.
Key Pivots to the upside:
$2031.70 30 ema (red line)
$2063.40 4/13 high
$2085.50 5/3 high
Downside:
$2022 100 ema (yellow line)
$2012 200 ema (aqua line)
$2007 5/5 low
$1986 static multi-week support
No coincidences:
RAMBO stands for "Reversal of amateur breakout." The bullish ones in SPY & NASDAQ Futures, noted long signals 5/4 via yellow bars with "R" below (bullish RAMBOs) show a heavy saturation of retail selling, right before those sellers were swiftly wrong-footed.
In the VIX, near simultaneously 5/4, a bearish RAMBO noting a heavy pocket of long chasing is shown by a yellow bar with "R" above along with bearish divergence (yellow dot), making it an even stronger short signal.
Indeed I concur, long-Term I think Gold is just getting warmed after finally starting to bounce late last year.
I am looking at a short-term countertrend technical play.
The $2085 tap invalidated the triple top but is in danger of having been a blow off top if $2063.40 can't hold.
I've been nibbling in GLD puts all week and will proceed accordingly again tomorrow depending on where Gold is relation to the key pivot I noted.
Wheat MTF Breakdown:
Legend:
Blue bars note the activity of institutions & algos.
Yellow bars with "R" below note heavy pockets of retail sell chasing activity, and vice versa for yellow bars with "R" above.
Horizontal lines of varying thickness: Notable pivots, the thicker the more important.
Green Background: Demand Zone/Support area
Red Background: Supply Zone/Resistance area
Thin red lines: notable pro short trailing stop levels
Thin green lines: notable pro long trailing stop levels
Buy "warning" - print when a pro short trailing stop level breaks to the upside in a demand zone - shown by timestamped dotted vertical green lines
Sell "warning" - print when a pro long trailing stop level breaks to the downside in supply zone - shown by timestamped dotted vertical red lines
Monthly: The textbook definition of an inverse relationship with interest rates: wheat has been cut by 60% since March 2022.
The weekly notes the downside break of multi-year support from October 2020 @ about $655.
The red staircase on the daily notes the trailing stop levels of pros who scaled in short.
The blue pro bars 4/27 right after the flush price pattern (salmon dot) were aggressive long signals on the hourly. Additionally, the 4/28 & 4/30 blue pro bars that made a higher low, were less aggressive long signals. A 639 (pro short trailing stop level) break to the upside & hold will print a buy warning and will be strong confirmation of the aforementioned aggressive long signal(s).
NASDAQ Futures Scalp Signals:
The very strong bullish tape made the twin bullish RAMBOs (yellow bars with "R" below) on the 250 tick, a surgical long signal. Then the exhaustion price pattern (green dot) that printed about 45 minutes ago was the heads up to take 40 point scalp profits.
RAMBO is not Sly; it stands for "Reversal of Amateur Breakout." The twin bars that printed noted the tape was saturated with retail sellers. They were my warning I was getting a long signal. The more of those yellow bars with "R" below that print (especially in a strong bullish tape), the stronger the signal.
Russell 2000 Futures 36K Tick:
The yellow bar with "R" below 3/24 noting a heavy pocket of retail selling, after the 3/20 pro (institutions & algos noted by blue bars) activity @ multi-week support, is a long signal.
The Russell has been lagging the other majors (NASDAQ, S & P 500).
The Russell is curling for a potential breakout. It cleared the 10 (white line), 30 ema (red line), & vwap (purple line) as it currently sits just under the 50 ema (green line). The 200 ema (aqua line) is noted just below $1800.
Other key levels above:
100 ema (yellow line) @ $1781.72
Short-term resistance: $1790.10 noted by the tiny green dots
Below:
30 ema (red line) & vwap (purple line), both have converged @ about $1770
10 ema (white line) @ $1767.52
Multi-month support: $1730
The noted trailing stop level of the 3/20 pro long longs: $1708
Just a couple more things of note:
1) Apologies for the typos in my last message. I think the overall message was conveyed but don't like making typos.
2) I'm just a guy who likes posting charts and is a big fan of the whole OM community. Any and all comments, feedback, questions, constructive criticism, is most welcome.
NASDAQ Futures Long Signal:
On the 1.5K tick $13,297.75 is noted by the thin horizontal green line as a pro (institutions & algos noted by blue bars) long trailing stop level, consequently a major pivot.
So who drove the price action as that key pivot was just tested? Via the twin yellow bars with "R" below, the 250 tick notes it was retail short chasers.
In a tape this bullish, each of the twin yellow bars with "R" below that printed 20:20 (about an ago, was a long signal good for a quick 20 point scalp as of now, and likely good for more as a longer term trade.
VKTX MTF Breakdown:
Monthly: Anything over the all-time September 2018 high of $24, is blue sky technical territory.
Weekly: The mid-April exhaustion price pattern (green dot) was a pullback warning. Since then VKTX retested vwap (purple line) then bounced.
The daily notes the shallow pullback then bounce as a 10 ema (white line) retest.
The hourly notes the late March pro accumulation.
Short-term resistance is @ $21.80, just below the 4/25 52 week high of $22.04.
WW MTF Breakdown:
Legend:
Blue bars note the activity of institutions & algos.
Yellow bars with "R" below note heavy pockets of retail sell chasing activity, and vice versa for yellow bars with "R" above.
Horizontal lines of varying thickness: Notable pivots, the thicker the more important.
Green Background: Demand Zone/Support area
Red Background: Supply Zone/Resistance area
Thin red lines: notable pro short trailing stop levels
Thin green lines: notable pro long trailing stop levels
Buy "warning" - print when a pro short trailing stop level breaks to the upside in a demand zone - shown by timestamped dotted vertical green lines
Sell "warning" - print when a pro long trailing stop level breaks to the downside in supply zone - shown by timestamped dotted vertical red lines
Monthly: The April 2023 pro bar after the January 2023 flush price pattern (salmon dot) just off multi-year lows, is a long signal.
The next notable dynamic resistance is the 30 ema (red line) @ $13.41.
The weekly notes the ongoing pro activity in a demand zone just off multi-year lows since 3/10.
Key Levels Above:
$9.56 is noted as pro short trailing stop level, an upside break prints a buy warning
5/4/22 52 week high @ $10.24
100 ema (yellow line): $11.24
30 ema (red line) on the monthly @ $13.41
Static multi-month resistance: $16.66
200 ema (aqua line): $18.17
Below:
50 ema (green line) @ about $6.50
Static support closely clustered with the 10 (white line) & 30 ema (red line) @ $5.46
52 week low noted as support @ $3.27
One way or another there will be a new WW 52 week high this week b/c the current one is $10.24, made 5/4/2022. The daily also shows the first 200 ema (aqua line) break and multi-week hold in over a year.
The hourly notes the mid-April pro buying and subsequent bullish consolidation.
SPY MTF Breakdown:
Legend:
Blue bars note the activity of institutions & algos.
Yellow bars with "R" below note heavy pockets of retail sell chasing activity, and vice versa for yellow bars with "R" above.
Horizontal lines of varying thickness: Notable pivots, the thicker the more important.
Green Background: Demand Zone/Support area
Red Background: Supply Zone/Resistance area
Buy "warning" - print when a key pivot breaks to the upside in a demand zone - shown by timestamped dotted vertical green lines
Sell "warning" - print when a key pivot breaks to the downside in a supply zone - shown by timestamped dotted vertical red lines
Thin red lines: notable trailing stop levels of pro shorts
Thin green lines: notable trailing stop levels of pro longs
Monthly: notes the March 2020 Covid low as a bounce off the 100 ema (yellow line), the January 2022 high just under $480, and the October 2022 low as a bounce off the 50 ema (green line).
Weekly: The tape was saturated with chasers November 2019 to January 2020 before Covid low pro dip buying March to May 2020.
Daily: notes the March 2023 pro dip buying triggered the 3/31 buy warning.
Hourly: notes the 4/25 & 4/26 pro dip buying, 4/27 profit-taking, before more profit-taking 4/28.
Profit-taking in a strong bullish tape as is in place now, is a pullback, not reversal warning. The more shallow the pullback, the more bullish the tape as seen by the shallow pullback to $410 after the 4/27 pro profit-taking.