Has officially gone private and is no longer reporting
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How do we spin this as an ebola play?
Thanks for the info. The GTAT puts and CZZ calls looking nice now but not enough to offset me stepping in front of the derailed CBI and PEIX trains.
I'm about with MTT in swearing off options after past month.
That said, I did just buy some Nov $23 CORN puts for .29. We've got a record harvest coming, even if a little late.
Great ebola calls all week CJ!
Bagpiles of them...I get it bro. I actually prefer to call them stacks vs piles though, for the sake of being organized.
Lack of picks here doesn't mean this board is dead. The Chiscams are dead. So dead that I think they, with other smallies, just might be ripening for some pops. I guess that means the board is dead haha.
Whatever happened to the days of 1-2 Chiturds ripping 30+% daily during prolonged downturns in broader markets?
Easier to manipulate...in case any manipulative big boys are around.
OT: So my credit card expired and my ihub subscription didn't renew.
I thought the ads were obnoxious when I was a subscriber but this is ridiculous. So disgusting I have no intent to ever pay for this bagfest again.
Lol, just an FYI so all the hot Asian chicks sending me PM's are aware of the reason I can't respond in private.
I bought some GTAT puts on that bounce earlier this week. What happens as far as closing options out if/when this thing gets the dreaded Q & delisted?
Thanks for the nice read on IV. Early summer rocked for me, late summer rocked me.
CZZ- Nice bounce thus far. Now need Silva to endorse & campaign for Neves to get me a 10 bagger at $14 by mid Dec.
Much like the US, it is coming back to politics (and I hate politicians).
Beijing issued a yellow alert for air pollution on Wednesday with smog forecast to continue for the next three days.
http://www.icrosschina.com/news/2014/1009/4260.shtml
Rinse/repeat season for pollution scams is coming early...maybe at some point one of these turds will hold some gains.
Yes, but the relative strength in PEIX vs peers was strange. Major indices showing some bullish engulfing reversals so maybe, just maybe, we get some follow through this time.
I've been wrong more than right on this one for past month so we'll see how it goes. I'd prefer a risk on theme again for the sake of my underwater call options.
Funny thing- I'm biased as I'm in and you're inclined to remain conservative until confirmation as you're out. Neither one of us really knows WTH is going to happen, lol.
I suppose that's what makes a market.
Given export situation/Brazil situation (including elections), pending winter rail issues, market tendencies to overshoot to upside & downside, upcoming corn weakness (6-10 days out will be dry for a late harvest), excessive short interest while market rebounds, etc...I think Rule has it pretty dialed in here.
We'll see...but I think bottom is in. As always, those waiting for confirmation will miss the bulk of the initial move.
I don't often pick bottoms so take it with a grain of salt.
Industry may have contracted enough & balance sheet improved enough to make this a desirable takeover candidate again.
Suitors may have some urgency ahead of winter rail disruptions that PEIX is well-suited for. Also, other consideration is Brazil's downturn and increased blend rate.
Strange seeing the outperformance here today vs other US peers after the recent elevated short interest.
I've noticed plenty of "chart calls" on social media for revisiting the $4-$6 range, which makes me think we might have some nice squeeze potential here due to unsavvy shorts. Yes, the lead players were right on in shorting above $20 when the crush contracted but I think a lot of jokers piled on based on the chart breakdown at lower levels. Plenty of people think this is the same PEIX fundamentally that traded in the $4 range a year ago.
It seems a balance sheet eludes a lot of people.
Recent Saudi production cuts more than offset by Libya and Nigeria increase.
Saudi price cuts a result of other OPEC players unwillingness to cooperate with production cuts.
Given slowing global growth, I see supply/demand as the biggest factor. When mentioning this elsewhere, I have been told plunging oil is a US/Saudi conspiracy to take out the Russian economy. I prefer the supply/demand explanation.
BAA- since everyone is so crazy about it, and I don't doubt some "discrete" promoting here, what is their AISC?
Thanks for continued solar insights as I don't follow the sector too closely.
Grizzay in the hizzay???
Any potential catalysts for solar sector in near future?
$XIN and $HGSH in a battle lately to see who can maintain a higher market cap. What a sad state of affairs.
Corn at $8 per bushel...are you already predicting a record drought in 2015?
I'll tell you what happens with PEIX if corn is $8- sorghum.
OMG, he has returned!!! Welcome back from the dead!!!
It's far too early to break out the flying feces chart...
I thought everyone was meeting up at the Crazy Horse? I finally got tired of waiting and staggered out at 2 AM.
Yes, I posted that the other day. One reason the PEIX destruction is overdone. But also one reason I think CZZ will benefit longer term as they are a larger & better capitalize player than these small ethanol mills. We'll see how it all plays out.
Brazil study sees 30 ethanol mills near bankruptcy
http://www.hydrocarbonprocessing.com/Article/3386601/Latest-News/Brazil-study-sees-30-ethanol-mills-near-bankruptcy.html
Ethanol names popping to new highs...gimme $16 by opex and I'm happy.
OT: A comment in that SA article made me take a look at large Brazilian ethanol name $CZZ. That stock has been absolutely bludgeoned too & seems cheap here. With $PEIX already a huge position for me, I figured why not play a bounce both ways?
Crazy similarities in the chart, albeit, for slightly different reasons.
$CZZ- Brazilian agricultural/energy/logistics name maybe putting in reversal candle today. The US ADR trades at 25%+ discount to underlying. I grabbed some Dec 12.50 calls for .15.
Brazilian index might be bouncing off support here
Edit: the bovespa chart isn't updating as this is as of close yesterday. It's up another 1.5% today
Yep, I think it's going to be a roller coaster in ethanol futures (& PEIX sp as a result).
Exports ramping at this price & we'll likely see impact from a lot of plant maintenance hitting right at same time. Just as they overshot to the upside, we're seeing an overshot to the downside.
This was a good chart call but you obviously haven't looked at the balance sheet if you're expecting dilution as seen in the past.
Over $50 million cash as of mid August with minimal plant debt.
http://www.pacificethanol.net/assets/documents/presentations/PEIX_Investor_Presentation_September_2014.pdf
Would some favorable RFS news be too much to ask for ahead of Oct opex? Grasping at straws here.
Bullish on Ethanol Exports
http://m.agriculture.com/news/business/bullish-on-ethol-expts_5-ar45195
Some interesting nuggets about the Fayetteville Shale in this recent article.
http://www.thecitywire.com/node/34783#.VCre2PldWHw
I believe it is institutional dumping associated with window dressing so am betting this is the worst of it. Also, crude is dumping hard on highest OPEC production in several years so the weakness in energy sector isn't helping either.
$CISG down 6%, I can't win
$PEIX -7%, a tad overdone IMO, so I grabbed a few Oct $14 calls
Great article. One could argue that these same beneficiaries also benefit most when markets & banks are bailed out during rough times as well.
The best of both worlds.
.15's with a couple prints recently near .10. Yes, I'm ignoring the R/S.
Some job done by mgmt in squelching that breakout on the cusp at .30+.
Bob May and his cronies making out like bandits on the Arkansas properties at .24.
Lmao, big ballin'
LMAO- I typically drink alone as well
DA wisest chartist and nicest guy on ihub IMO.
If he weren't such a great guy, he'd probably have a subscription service:)
CLNT- very strange to see it wallow down here even after the Al Little endorsement.
$JRJC taking a dump on earnings after hours. Maybe finally time to get paid on my Oct $9 & $10 puts.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-finance-online-reports-second-220000935.html