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The market has been on auto-pilot for some time now but it no longer is. The $spx and $indu have filled all their needs to go higher, not saying that they can't have one final 300-400 hundred spurt upwards. Looks like over the next month there is a good possibility that the dow will lose about 1000 points by Dec 28th, if it can't catch footing there the drop will be much worse.
Sorry that I haven't posted in a while but I have some new business ventures that really exacted time and travel. It will be about another month before I can post more but all is well and fine. I have no long positions in the market as of Wednesday and also started a short spy position.
While I agree on most retailer charts, be careful and set a stop. Looks like DDS is going higher, the chart has a bootiful naked top uncovered at about 19-20 and a naked bottom that has already been covered so no need to go see it again. lol
Can't say, I can't even say that the $usd will remain coupled to the stock market rise or fall.
Hi Jim, ya I saw that and figured that you had it figured out.
One should see how a rising $usd figures into the market. Just as efforts to break gold and oil out above areas to which they could roar up has failed, the dollar bears and shorts have failed to take the $usd any lower. Not saying that it is going to roar upwards but it should take 1 1/2 steps forward and 1 step back up to around 102ish over time.
Yesterday was the day on the internals that I have been looking for, now we need follow thru to confuse the masses. If I am right then the market can still bounce at any time but the bounces will be sold instead of bought for a bit. Have to see how things shape up.
SRS long looks good it should still have about $3 to the upside left before it needs to check the breakout.
The 150ish point rise in the $indu was sold into as internals indicate and they are still currently in neutral range so a sizeable rally or decline is likely today.
Just a note Joe, the lids came off of the grease buckets partially yesterday. The internals went negative for the first time in a long while and basically ended neutral, the move today tells the story for the next direction whether it be short or mid-term. I suspect that the buy the dips people may still have a play but better be very nimble now. If the internals follow thru to the negative today and tomorrow then most of the money should be made on the short side in selected areas. This may only be a correction of the overbought internals so the indices may yet go higher even while the internals roll over.
Long some srs to add to that bought near 11 the other day. Looks like it might have a $4-5 pop coming up.
Hard to chart stocks that low but looks like it has a need to see $1.24 first target then sometime in the future $4.05.
Gold print and hold over 1029
It's getting harder to be a long from here on out. 10,500 is still in play on the dow though.
http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/Pnf.asp?S=$NYSI:$INDU&Y=U&B=.7&TR=28&E=on&N=A&C=2
Yes they must. g
Thanks Jim. Srs probably has to crawl in the gutter a while, so I would guess next year sometime.
Hi Conelda. Here is a relative strength chart that shows the strength in the $djusri and the weakness in srs. The chart shows a nice naked top that will need to be covered at least down to maybe the 812-840 area. Pnf chart so use your best judgement.
http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/Pnf.asp?S=$DJUSRE:SRS&Y=U&B=28&N=A&C=2
Here is the srs pnf chart that now has completed a 3 gap down chart over time. The downside is 10 points while the upside at some point may see 80 again. I would hedge in some put option coverage way out along with some cheap calls way out. If options exist for srs I didn't look. Remember that srs started its life and childhood rising higher and higher peaking in 2007, it has a while longer to crawl along the gutter.
http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/Pnf.asp?S=SRS&Y=U&B=1.4&TR=28&E=on&N=A&C=2
Today or tomorrow and the pog should drop to around 850-860 this round. The price of gold has a plague on it, in that it has been unable to break up and thru the 1009 area and then the 1035 area. There has been less glamor in each of the last 3 gold bounces. Of course I could be very wrong.
A little bit above 200 is likely, maybe around 220ish.
It should reach there during the month of august. The target still looks viable. Now 11.20 more than 12.50 but somewhere in that ballpark. It has a need at some point to see 50 again.
Just went short a batch of miners both gold and silver, may be a day or so early but will add if early.
Lol no page to view it is acquired reading unless you care to ask Joe to explain it. I would but am really rushed today.
There is a high probability that the first test of the grease buckets comes today/tomorrow on the $INDU and tomorrow/monday on the $compq.
The internals are fast approaching areas that will either turn the market down OR if they break up thru could lead a rather furious rally of say 1500 dow points. I don't think the rally happens right now but............. Hardly any grease on the hill right now, but they're bringing in a new load to take the tops off of. g
If the pog trades down to 931 then a test of the recent lows is probably in order.
It has to clear the 1009 area with gusto and yes the low areas are still in play.
Today could have been the high for this run but if it should trade higher again tomorrow then a test of top is likely, although I previously had not expected that right now.
Lol Jim, yours are the only cycle calls that I just take for granted and don't test em. lol Checked em before and you are always near a date of importance of mine so I figure why bother to double check you. g
Hi Conelda, sorry but it takes a lot of hardknocks and failures and time to develop a style of reading charts. what works for me may not fit your gut feeling. Unlike some, I always listen to another point of view all of em has something of value in them, either right or wrong assumptions. I use pnf charts as well as candle charts. I don't use ewave simply because they make me dizzy but some are successful using them so I defer to them on points of views. I also listen and read different cycle reads and then look at my charts to see if I can validate or disprove their cycle dates. Just keep trying you will figure things out. I will be pleased to help you anytime that you ask. g
Nice looking pup, where else but Georgia would you get a bulldog type? lol Btw from the picture he looks to already be trained to fend off other liberal dogs. g
Joe, the nyse has turned at support like I mentioned that it could but the naz has more weakness to see and is more vulnerable. The internals have reversed course on the $indu and could have quite a distance to move up but it is still too early to say how far the internals will carry it up, could be as much as 500 summation points. $Nasi has another couple hundred points to fall so we need to see who leads who here in the short term. For now in the dow it should be a buy the dip condition.
No, most likely not. A drop down to 868 should start almost any day. That is after a pause at say 880 I would think.
Joe, just something to keep in mind. Many are saying that drops with the $nylow at present near 0 levels hasn't happened in the past. The fly in the midst is that the current level has not been seen since I think the crash of 1987, so there is no history to go on. I think a drop can happen here as the grease tilts to the high side and those new lows expand. Eventually that low mark of the $nylow will mark an important turning point on the charts of the future, but for now the picture is still being drawn. I will say this that the market is fast approaching an area to decide if the pressure eases or intensifies as the internals near those levels.
Might pay to watch GE, as I posted a while back it's in trouble again on the charts. I am still ss from 14 but also today bought some jan 2010 10 puts. Twice the amount that I normally buy. I think GE is going back down to first stop 8.83 then 5.27 and that probably isn't the low for the next couple years but not much lower. I will exercise the puts and cover the shorts at 5ish, I want to own GE free. g
No time frame just yet but would guess late fall to early winter months. Have to see if there are any chart hints first.
I wouldn't own even those just yet, looks like pog 896 is to be tested real soon and I doubt that it holds after 2 or 3 attempts. Gold and silver should be going down the miners along with them. g
Gt is around just real busy during this early part of summer.
All have a nice 4th including you Canucks. g
Good luck, nem is likely to start a recovery from about 38ish, anyway that's where i'll cover again or close by.
Take care if one is long the miners.
Hi Conelda. You should look at DD for a stock, hard to chart but looks like it should go to 30 before it has to make a decision on breakout or same ole cycle back down. Hope this helps,,,, and anytime. g