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Who's SirRealist?
Good to see you too & Merry Christmas to all!
Especially triple tops where the third top breaks above the first two, as just occurred, and midway in an earnings season, it's pretty rare to see catastrophic plunges.
MUSE may be good for 25 cents higher than its peak today. Trying to break the last peak of 6.41
Is SI down? I'm looking for 1405-1420/25 today yet with a Friday pullback.
Fibo retrace numbers and the 50 ema suggest the comp could bounce at 1364, 1355 or 1343 Monday.
>>I still can't decipher French<<
What's to decipher? There's only three basic phrases needed to understand most French:
1) Pass the baguettes, cheese, butter, cream and wine please.
2) I am superior to you.
and
3) We surrender!
(Okay, cheap shot. My apologies to all Francophiles.)
At last a thief who goes where the money is! LOL
I can understand Hammurabi and Moses but the only guess opn Napoleon is he makes a damn fine brandy?? <G>
>>Is Ann coulter jewish?<<
Naw. She's just an over-rated celebrity that has said some pretty foolish things. Some days she makes Rush seem like an intellectual by comparison.
Circuses entertain though.
So the COTS are displaying a rather neutral tone presently? That's consistent with my present reads. We have a State of the Union speech Tues 1/28 and the Fed meets 1/29-1/30, so I kinda expect a lot of dithering till then, with more upside than downside potential in the next 3-5 trading days.
I'll be trading cautiously day-to-day because such dithering often has unpleasant surprises overnight.
I agree with Zeev that a bounce should come in the 1345-1355 range and maintain a constant (for now) interest in China and gold stocks. ASIA reports Tuesday AH and could prove a nearterm bellwether for others in that sector.
I dumped gold over an hour ago. By my charts and indicators, we hit or are close enough to bottom, to go long here and a 3 week rally is what I look for.
50% retrace would be 1314, and I suspect we'll not come closer than 10 pts from that.
Adjusting my market call now. Looking for 1445/50 in next day or two, 1328 by next Thursday, a rise and retest of that 1328 that should go to at least 1348 by 12/23-12/24.
Coincidentally, this brings me more in line with Zeev's mid-January call, with 1628-1631 as my target, by 1/14..... which means about 300 points in 2.5 weeks.
If we break upside of 1450 next week, though, all bets are off, as we could just run to 1628-1631 before Christmas.
Key event: look for major sabre-rattling to occur this weekend. My first scenario suggests 12/26 or 1/15 to be a war launch.
Storage was about the weakest tech sector in the past 2 months. Only ELX NTAP performed well; MCDT INRG EMC FNSR JNIC sure didn't.
Looks like 1313/1315, the 50% retrace, may be it, followed by a 3-4 day run to 1440.
Wow, Zeev. Over a multi-month period, that's the largest collection of peaks and valleys I can recall you making within a 6 month window.
My models have largely been based on technical and historical patterns, adjusted for economic data as it comes in. I've gathered, from your observations over the past few years, that your models factor in some macro-econodata, based on your considerably longer experience with the stockmarkets.
I don't want to be presumptuous and ask you to reveal the formula of the larger models you've constructed with such a large degree of success. But I retain a high respect for your perceptions and skills, and do have a few specific questions.
-- Of the macro economic data, nationally or globally, are there a few that stand out as the most critical that you feel all traders/investors should pay close attention to?
-- Since a great amount of economic data reflects what just happened, as opposed to what will happen, are there any reliable forecasters that merit extra attention, such as a particular central bank or economic school of thought that are worth studying the pronouncements thereof?
-- Considering the shift from a mostly industrial based economy to a services/IT economy (with a substantial farming out of the old industrial sector to other countries, certain data seemingly becomes less relevant, such as this: http://www.economagic.com/gif/g1202240128021919193641974840784.gif
and this:
http://www.economagic.com/gif/g1202240128021857536454064403772.gif
and this:
http://www.economagic.com/gif/g120224012802190957364574505840539.gif
Is there some substantive way to project such usage? Is it based more on population growth than type of economy?
--What stimuli do you see causing so many peaks and valleys within the next six months? The Middle East/Iraq? Elliot waves?
Thanks for any insights you can provide. Btw, my nominal dates for the 1600+ peak is 1/30 and for the mid-2003 low, it's 6/24, so our different methods are not significantly far apart on those two key points.
-Kevin
Purty close to my scenario, Zeev, though I expect a brief bounce at the first number, another downleg to the 50%-61% retracement level, before rallying (my peak range said 1612-1631) between 1/30-2/14 (likely a double peak).
Other than that second downleg, the major difference in our forecasts is I still see a much lower bottom, though I've yet to calculate the estimated time of arrival.
I think whatever our 1600+ peak is can be divided by 3.... that remains my closest estimate of the ultimate bottom.
I have it at 1360-1370 in the next day or two, followed by a nice, mostly one day short covering rally. But I think we're gonna eventually settle to someplace between 1273 and 1314.
And I see no positives compelling us towards the next serious rally phase until earnings runs kick in sometime between 12/18 and Christmas.
jmo
Did you note the whipsaw in the OSX? Was that a glitch or do you read anything into it?
OT, about browsers:
Whenever I start looking around for software, I always refer first to the rating systems at http://cws.internet.com/ and http://download.com.com/2001-20-0.html?legacy=cnet
I was checking on the latest browser versions about a week ago and discovered that Internet Explorer and Netscape are getting increasing competitition from Opera and Mozilla; these seem to be the four most popular. A brief description of each:
Opera is generally viewed as the fastest. But you have to buy it after a brief trial period. Now there's a version that's free. It does include a small banner ad, but many don't find it intrusive enough to worry about.
Mozilla is the one for the open-source crowd, which mean hundreds of folks are trial-and-erroring potential improvements on an ongoing basis. With each new release, the popular improvements get added so us non-geeks get the results without doing the work.
Netscape used to be the standard. Many cite its purchase by AOL as when it stopped keeping pace with IE's development, and I have to admit that I don't like what it's become. Unfortunately for AO: users, it's the default browser. One can, however, while connected to AOL, minimize the AOL screen and open a separate browser if they wish.
Internet Explorer is the king at this point. It has its weaknesses and is a monster thing to download. And of course, those who view MSFT/Gates as Satan's Beasts shy away from it out of some kind of 'principle'. However, my experience suggests it's nearly as fast as the new competitors. And the bottom line is it appears to be the most stable of the bunch, rarely crashing.
As I reviewed the current crop of browsers, I discovered that my IE 5.0 now has a 5.5 and 6.0 version. I generally wait a few months to upgrade, though, as typically new releases have a few bugs that get fixed during that time.
But I also found, as I reviewed the others, some interesting features that IE lacks. Some have tabbed pages, so you can use one browser to load several sites at a time. Some include more customization options, so you change change the functions and appearance. Some include pop-up ad stoppers.
CNET's reviews are good because, in addition to 'pick' (editor's choices), it also provides 'pop' (popular choices by users) which I think are more useful, because popularity usually indicates an ease of use for the non-geeks. As well, this site includes user reviews. And even though some bad reviews can be attributed to user errors or weak/incompatible systems, reading through a bunch of them provides 1) a sense of what common weaknesses are observed, and 2) suggestions of alternatives that may be new enough that Stroud's and CNET have yet to review or list them.
Right now, Opera 6.05 with JRE 1.3, Internet Explorer 6.0, Netscape 7.0 and Mozilla 1.1 are the popular order of the 4 best-known choices.
However, when I checked 'Alternative Browsers', I found another set of competitors. The highest ranked there is called NetCaptor 7.0.2 and it's the only one that's been downloaded enough (over 400,000) that it's 'pop' and 'pick' ratings mean something.
As near as I can tell, it piggybacks on to IE to provide Opera's best features to IE's stability. (It doesn't replace IE however; you can open both if you want.)
A drawback: it, like Opera's ad-free version, costs. However, it piqued my interest.
But Stroud's and CNET are just my starting point. I use those reviews to narrow my list, then head to a couple of popular download sites that use simpler rating systems, to see how they fare there. The best known of these is http://www.tucows.com/ , and the other is http://www.nonags.com/, a site that specializes in freeware, instead of shareware (which usually gives you a free trial period, all the while 'nagging' you to buy).... thus the beauty of the 'Nonags' name.
Sometimes these sites will find a weakness the others missed. Sometimes they'll have stuff the others don't. I prefer ones that have top rankings a all 4 sites, but this time, I found a couple at nonags.com that had a top-rating that the others had missed. The browsers are called Avant and Phoenix. The Avant browser is an IE piggybacker like NetCaptor, EXCEPT IT'S FREE... and Phoenix piggybacks onto Mozilla and requires more tweaking.
Since I wanted to retain the stability of IE, I decided to learn more about Avant and went to it's homepage: http://www.avantbrowser.com/ It's designer has indicated that it's free, though he'd appreciate small donations. He's also running a new Yahoo Groups forum on it, beginning a few days ago: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Avant-Browser/
From that forum, it's evident he's responsive to user suggestions and will be improving it more. That was enough for me; I downloaded it and have been using it for a few days. And I'm happy to report that it's GREAT for several reasons:
- tabbed pages, so I can surf several sites and tab back & forth
- click on the left border arrows and it opens the favorites list in a separate frame.
- a button for 'allow pictures', meaning you can disallow them when you want speedier text-based browsing
- pop-up ad stopper
- built-in Google search function (the magnifying glass button)
- mouse tricks that make it easier to go forward and back and open new windows on separate pages within the browser
And a lot of other things that can be customized. But the three key things I like best are:
- with only a a few minutes use, it's pretty simple to figure out, even if ya don't want to explore all its custom possiblitities. This is handy for non-geeks and even slow typists like myself.
- unlike NetCaptor, it's free.
- and best of all, if your computer freezes up and ya have to reboot it, Avant will re-open with all the same pages loaded, so you don't lose stuff! This came in handy in another way, too. The only error I made early on was in closing tabbed pages. I closed the entire browser at first.... but could re-open it with all of them intact. Then I learned to right-click the page tab, and close it there, which left me with the rest of the pages.
It's capacity to reopen intact after a screen freeze and reboot or a closing of the browser, makes it invaluable imo.
Anyhoo, the whole point of my writing this is to say: I recommend ya try Avant.
From Opera to Mozilla to NetCaptor to Phoenix and Avant, the whole beauty of computer technology is that the little guy developers can produce stuff that outshines the big boys, forcing the big boys to improve to compete.
My hat is off right now to Anderson Che, who created Avant and seems to be prepared to improve it in response to consumer concerns. Little guys ROCK!
-Kev
(PS - No, I don't know the developer or get a commission. Just passing on something I found that I really enjoy)
A gold reference site I set up: http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=18136853
I dunno about 'progressively', Zeev, but on a 10 yr COMP chart, the RSI overbought level was 80-88 and oversold was 33-40.
After the March 2000 downturn, 55 displays overbought and 25 oversold.... so it has shifted to a different lower set of parameters.
Looking at shorter term intervals (say, year by year) the difference is not as visible. For example, on a 1 year chart, we hit 80 RSI last Nov & Dec, but 62 has been the overbought point since....and we hit 25 only once, in May, with 30-35 the normal oversold bounce point.
In short, it does differ from bull to bear, but not 'progressively' per age of the bull or bear.
Thx Freep ! eom
Regarding the semi sector:
In my trading these last few years, one sector I'd traded thinly was semi-conductors. There's about 2 dozen favorites I traded.
However, in the past six months, this sector has, more than ever, defined and controlled tech. So I went out in search of the entire sector and came up with this short list of semis and semi equipment (which includes designers, suppliers, testers).
Though I don't include the dates here, I arranged these two groups in order of their earnings dates, with MU reporting in late Sept and ENTG in early October, through approximately 11/20 (though the bulk report between 10/10-10/31):
Chips:
MU INTC MOT AMCC ARMHY CY AMD XICO TXCC BRCM XLNX IDTI FCS PMCS ATML TXN ALTR TSM ANAD VTSS STM MCHP MCRL LSI CHRT TQNT SWKS TSEM MRVL NSM
Chip equipment/suppliers/testers:
ENTG RMBS NVLS TER UTEK KLIC ATMI MKSI AEIS ASML ASMI LRCX KLAC PHTN CYMI DPMI VSEA ACLS CCMP VARI ASYT ICST VECO AMKR TWAV MTSN AMAT CMOS BRKS SNPS
Because of unfamiliarity with terms, and the broad, vague descriptions companies use in defining themselves, I was uncertain if I'd divided them right, and certain I'd missed more than a few, as names kept popping into my head after I made my list.
So I asked around a bit. I found that I'd called RMBS wrong (it's a memory chip) and ICST and AMKR were ICs.
And one guy came up with this great list:
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=QUIET&read=105973
Some of this opened my eyes a little. Since some of those companies had stuff directed at other specific sectors, I'd never distinguished them as semis before. For example, I had APWR APTI under 'Power/Alternate Energy', I had AVNX BKHM MRVC NUFO OCPI OPLK STLW under 'Fiber Optics', I had CNXT RFMD SMDI under 'Wireless Equipment', I had QLGC as 'Storage' (with BRCD ELX MCDT INRG NTAP, etc), I had OVTI grouped with TIVO and LBRT, I had PXLW under 'Visual Display', and OSIS under 'Defense: screeners'.
I feel a bit foolish that I couldn't discern that these were semis, as I do an okay due diligence (DD) with the financials of tech companies (or lack of financials... hehehe), but it reflects how difficult it is for a non-techie to fully grasp what some companies are actually doing. Were I an investor, rather than a trader, I'm sure I'd do better at making these distinctions, because I'd be in contact with more IR depts to clear up the gray. As a trader, I spend that time doing TA instead.
In any case, the list above did not include my equippers: ENTG AEIS CCMP VARI TWAV SNPS.... and a few other folks tossed out a few that I've yet to verify as semis: KTEC NUHC CDN TMC, and they reminded me of some I'd forgotten, like RTEC (and I used to play games with poor Rudolph <GG>).
If someone were to really do a complete review, I'm sure they'd make some other key distinctions, such as:
1) Where, exactly, do some well-known names fit? I refer to VSH KEM and SNDK; are they semis or not? And MOT, which is not a pure semi, yet appears to have a significant semi subdivision.... does it qualify?
2) Which ones trade thinly on low volume? (They tend to be poor trading choices).
3) Does the low volume suggest they're supplying something in declining use, signifying a dying technology?
4) Speaking of dying technologies, I recall when the over-riding issue with fiber optics was 'who'll provide the last mile solution?' Now some say there's a gazillion miles of laid fiber that'll never be lit. And I wonder if a lot of it is obsolete, because can't the same data be transmitted via satellite and wireless? And wireless offers similar confusion. Is 3G king, led by QCOM and IDCC? Some say new approaches, like what PROX provides, may prove more viable.
I don't feel alone trying to interpret the geekspeak (some of which seems unnecessary and 'clubby' to me). Even the master trader Warren Buffett doesn't understand a lot of it. Makes me wonder a bit: if something has to be couched in a broad new language that a small minority can translate, it's a ripe field for pure hucksterism. The burned post-bubble investors are not likely to come back and be twice bit, until the geeks building these corporate websites and dishing out press releases learn to speak English again. (But I digress; I'll renew that rant later....)
It would seem that the choices of traders and investors might provide a clue. Wouldn't a dying technology show declining volume and the greatest decline in share prices from their moving averages? Wouldn't an up and coming technology be drawing more dollars?
It would seem so. But sometimes money just follows money relentlessly when a big name keeps gobbling up competitors, and individual companies can be bubbles unto themselves. Just look at the P/E of AMAT, up above 1200 ! Has anyone's growth prospects ever justified such a capitalization?
However, in trying to figure out what's what, I did find one site that a trader has put together that is truly impressive. It will take some correspondence to determine how he gets it to update daily; I'm guessing he programmed his own software to make it happen.
It takes a bit of effort to understand what it all means, in that you have to have a good sense of TA. And it lacks something I rely on: the dates of earnings reports, because things start moving during earnings runs, either up or down. But I think you might find it useful.
Page 1 is simple enough: http://home.mindspring.com/~bconyers/semigap.htm
But to understand the next links, you need to use his home page and explanation page:
http://home.mindspring.com/~bconyers/nuttybuddy.html
http://home.mindspring.com/~bconyers/alerts.html
I'd encourage you to print them all out, or at least the explanation page, so you can pick up what's happening daily.
Here's his two groups of semi-conductors.
Semiconductor Equipment Stocks:
http://home.mindspring.com/~bconyers/semialert.htm
Semiconductor Manufacturing Stocks:
http://home.mindspring.com/~bconyers/semimfgalert.htm
And here's his non-semi collections of index funds and 250 diverse socks he monitors.
Exchange Traded Funds:
http://home.mindspring.com/~bconyers/etfalert.htm
250 Stocks I Follow:
http://home.mindspring.com/~bconyers/alert1.htm
Certainly, his semi lists are not all-inclusive, but they just may cover the best of the lot.
I hope this helps some. After all, many technology companies and even old NYSE companies (like GM & F) find some foundation in semis. Like the canary in the coal mine, the semis, if they're not being bought, indicate their applications across multiple industries are not growing.
This recent rally was so heavily dominated by semis that we have to legitimately ask if it signals THE bottom is in for the broader market. Or does it indicate they merely got oversold in advance of earnings, and are now overcorrecting on short squeezing?
Most of the earnings warnings and early reports seem to indicate that the vast majority have dismal near-term outlooks, and they're looking (perhaps wishfully?) at the second half of 2003 for growth.
If that outlook is correct, semis ought to start raising the SOX index at least 6 months before the growing sales show up in the reports. And it's clear that knowing this sector is much more important than any other in determining market dynamics, and, with the banking/financial and energy/oil sectors, may be the best indicators of our entire national economy.
That's one big bird; ignore it and ya might get beaked!
Thx for the correction Augie. Your chart skills rank supreme in my book. It makes me feel better about my longs heading into Monday, too!
I don't need to add much to this chart. We either beat 1222 or it's retest time:
.
.
.
==Kevin=>
Extel: That small dollar chart breach prolly was a future indicator, or a head fake. At Wednesday's close, I was entirely bullish, and the breach unnerved me some, but it was apparent 1 hour in that the market was ignoring it.
Clearly, GE and the econ reports will influence today. I look for 1185 and 1204 and 1235 as resistance points if we rise and 1140 as support, if we drop.
My best guess is a rise to 1204 and a selloff into Tuesday, so the post INTC earnings (Tuesday AH) may drive the mkt higher or to new lows by expiry day.
Gotta take it day by day for now though. Btw, I apologize for not returning to adjust my call early yesterday. I monitor 3 sites and did so at the other 2; apparently I forgot to here.
==Kevin=>
It's not impossible. If you're trading a sufficiently large stake, working the intraday moves of quality stocks that move within a range, and are a decent market reader, you can make thousands on a 25 cent move. And, using stops, can avoid most sudden bad news; which tend to be less frequent, since you're DD defined them as quality to begin with.
http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewBusiness.asp?Page=\Business\archive\200210\BUS20021008b.html
http://waysandmeans.house.gov/fullcomm/107cong/hr1619/hr1619union.pdf
Think this'll get past the Senate? I wonder what time Thursday the House passed this?
And RBAK
Zeev: would you (or anyone) want to venture a guess what this'll do to gold?
R195 billion charter approved
By: David McKay
Posted: 2002/10/09 Wed 21:16 ZE2 / © Miningweb 1997-2002
Minerals and energy minister, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka. stipulated that government's base value of the South African mining industry was R750 billion. Mineweb has used this figure in its calculations below.
JOHANNESBURG - South Africa's government today (09 October) approved plans to transfer 26 percent of the country's existing mining assets, estimated worth R195 billion, to black-owned interests over the next ten years. Minerals and energy minister, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, described the document - termed a broad-based socio-economic plan - as a "well crafted balance that all parties put together". It is understood that South Africa's private sector, represented by the Chamber of Mines of South Africa (CoM), has also approved the charter.
The charter is widely different to an earlier draft, first handed to Mineweb in July, in which ownership of 30 percent of existing assets, and more than 50 percent of new projects, were to be transferred during a 10-year time frame. South African and international markets were so surprised by these proposals, later described by government as "a first position", that more than R50 billion flooded out of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange within days.
Government's new charter, however, sets far lower targets for the transfer of ownership, and defines no equity targets at all on new, as yet unannounced, projects. But Mlambo-Ngcuka suggested that higher proportions of equity were expected to be made available to black businesses in the case of new projects. Over-arching these pronouncements, Mlambo-Ngcuka said the implementation of the redrafted charter would be on a case-by-case basis and using more than one criteria for success.
Crucially, the charter stipulates that the targeted 26 percent ownership must be implemented at the asset level only. This is an important clarification that further improves the previous charter document which suggested large slices of equity, even at the corporate level, might be transferred to new shareholders. Trade and industry minister, Alec Erwin, said government's charter would be "market driven": the industry faced a predictable, long-term future, he said.
In addition, the charter also imposes a five-year interim assessment of its effectiveness in which it hopes roughly R100 billion worth of assets - about 13 percent of the industry - will be owned by black companies. The charter also states that the private sector has undertaken to assist funding new entrants: "The industry agrees to assist HDSA (Historically Disadvantaged South Africans) in securing finance to fund participation in an amount of R100 billion within the first five years".
Implementation of the charter will be through the granting of mining licenses. In other words, mining companies must apply to transfer old order rights into new order mining rights, a process through which government will identify opportunities for black empowerment. Companies that fail to meet the charter's criteria will not be granted mining licenses.
Annual public disclosures will be made to monitor the implementation of the ownership transfer envisaged by government. Progress will also be assessed by additional criteria including providing employment equity for black people. In terms of this feature of the charter, about 40 percent of junior and senior managerial roles in the South African mining industry must be held by black South Africans after five years.
Other features of the charter are preparations for social plans to provide for the future of potential so-called ghost towns, communities which once hosted mining operations. Beneficiation, share ownership schemes for mining employees, and a drive to boost black -owned providers of mining equipment and supplies are other key aspects of the charter.
SAP holding strong.
Dollar bounced at 106.83 (i was calling 106.82 for channel bottom) and is back at 106.97. So we held the bottom there.
Upgrades, downgrades, news and projections:
8:47am 10/09/02 [AGY] ARGOSY GAMING CUT TO 'SELL' AT PRUDENTIAL
8:48am 10/09/02 [AMB] AMB PROPERTY CUT TO 'HOLD' AT PRUDENTIAL
8:45am 10/09/02 [MHC] MFC SEES 2002 FFO FALLING TO RANGE OF $2.48 TO $2.52
8:43am 10/09/02 [GMSTE] GEMSTAR UPPED TO 'NEUTRAL' AT SOUNDVIEW TECHNOLOGY
8:44am 10/09/02 [MHC] MHC LOWERS Q3 FFO OUTLOOK TO 58C, VS 62C CONSENSUS
8:41am 10/09/02 [MRK] MERCK CUT TO 'MARKET PERFORM' AT RAYMOND JAMES
8:41am 10/09/02 [FISV] FISERV STARTED AT 'MARKET PERFORMER' AT BANC OF AMERICA
8:36am 10/09/02 [FDC] FIRST DATA STARTED AT 'MKT PERFORM' AT BANC OF AMERICA
8:35am 10/09/02 [CNCT] CONNETICS STARTED AT 'STRONG BUY' AT USB P. JAFFRAY
8:32am 10/09/02 [SLTC] SELECTICA CUT TO 'MARKET PERFORM' AT USB PIPER JAFFRAY
8:31am 10/09/02 [NXTL] NEXTEL COMM. UPPED TO 'OUTPERFORM' AT USB PIPER JAFFRAY
8:30am 10/09/02 [AMSC] AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR WINS $2M GOVT CONTRACT
8:23am 10/09/02 [FWHT] FINDWHAT.COM SEES 2002 REVENUE RISING 40% VS YR AGO
8:24am 10/09/02 [FWHT] FINDWHAT.COM PEGS EPS AT 46C FOR 2002, 36C FOR 2003
8:23am 10/09/02 [FWHT] FINDWHAT.COM TO 'MEET OR EXCEED' Q3 FINANCIAL TARGETS
8:16am 10/09/02 [ACS] AFFILIATED COMPUTER WINS $20M WINNIPEG TRAFFIC CONTRACT
8:15am 10/09/02 [CDCO] COMDISCO TO REDEEM $400 MLN OF SENIOR NOTES
8:13am 10/09/02 [AFC] ALLMERICA FINANCIAL CUT TO 'UNDERWEIGHT' AT LEHMAN
8:12am 10/09/02 [BKNW] BANK OF THE NORTHWEST Q3 EPS 32C, UP 48% FROM YR AGO
8:09am 10/09/02 S&P FUTURES DOWN 8.60
8:10am 10/09/02 [MAX] MERCURY AIR GROUP Q4 EPS 71C VS 8C YEAR AGO
8:07am 10/09/02 [MBMW] MERCANTILE BANK REPORTS Q3 RECORD NET INCOME OF $2.2M
8:05am 10/09/02 [MBMW] MERCANTILE BANK Q3 EPS 42C, BEATING 40C CONSENSUS
8:04am 10/09/02 [WMI] WASTE MGMT. STARTED AT 'EQUAL-WEIGHT' AT MORGAN STANLEY
8:02am 10/09/02 [AW] ALLIED WASTE STARTED AT 'EQUAL-WEIGHT' AT M. STANLEY
7:58am 10/09/02 [APPB] APPLEBEE'S INTL. STARTED AT 'SECTOR PERFORMER' AT CIBC
7:57am 10/09/02 [OSIS] OSI SYSTEMS STARTED AT 'SECTOR PERFORMER' AT CIBC
7:47am 10/09/02 [JEC] JACOBS ENGINEERING WINS $80 MLN USSOCOM CONTRACT
7:38am 10/09/02 [QCOM, SSGQY] QUALCOMM CHIPSET PICKED BY SAMSUNG FOR 3G HANDSETS
7:34am 10/09/02 [KVHI] KVH GETS PATENT FOR NEW DIGITAL SIGNAL PROCESSING
7:23am 10/09/02 [AMT] AMERICAN TOWER SEES Q3 REV FOR RENTAL DIV. $140M-$144M
7:18am 10/09/02 [MAPS] MAPINFO SEES Q4 EPS OF 1C, REV $23.6 MLN
5:09pm 10/08/02 [ARW] ARROW ELECTRONICS SEES Q2 BETWEEN LOSS 2C-EARNS 2C
4:45pm 10/08/02 [FTBK] FRONTIER BANK JOINS FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM AS OF OCT. 7
4:44pm 10/08/02 INTEGRATED TELECOM EXPRESS FILES FOR CHAPT. 11
4:33pm 10/08/02 [MO] S&P DOWNGRADES PHILIP MORRIS, KRAFT OUTLOOK TO NEGATIVE
Also ABT DOL INKT MLIN warn.
Abby JC cuts to WHAT? ( First bear call I've heard her make, so it looks like rally city!)
The Taft-Hartley Act of 1947 was designed as a presidential tool of last resort to force workers back on the job if a strike threatens the economy or national security. Presidents have used the act 35 times, though it hasn't been invoked since the coal miners strike in 1978 -- a sign of the doubts surrounding its effectiveness, critics say.
Step by Step:
-President forms board to investigate dispute
-President asks court to force workers back to work for an 80-day "cooling-off" period
-Mediators work with the two sides to try to reach a settlement
After 60 days, the NLRB polls workers on employer's last offer
-If workers reject the offer, they are free to strike again or management can impose a lockout
A Lukewarm Record
Taft-Hartley has had mixed results. Its use often led to settlements, but in a few cases courts refused to order a cooling-off period, and in several others, workers struck again after.
Results are that 20 times it led to a settlement, 2 times the judge refused to order a cooling off period and 10 times workers struck again.
( A friend got this from the Wall Street Journal this morning.)
I wish you luck, Augie; your charting is a big boon to us here. Going to cable?