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I am a lurker who visits ihub occasionally to see the comments from various traders.
Most posters are cordial - offering their opinions, TA, etc.
However, I find the majority of Pokersams' posts offensive.
I equate it as if I randomly walk into a store and get insulted by the manager; for just walking into the store!
I used to enjoy reading Poker. Now, I don't care if he is right or wrong. It doesn't matter. He is an a--.
Go ahead, Poker - say something nice to me . . . .
Sam, is it time to ask that question again?
I have the high as 1390ish today . . .
I'm glad you asked for HOD -
tomorrow is a different story . . . . -g-
Sam - I, like MB3, will come out from lurking to thank you for interpreting EW for the layman.
I am not a daytrader. Just trying to make meager earnings on my meager $. Your work is appreciated.
thanks George.
You do have an informative board.
I don't read you everyday but do check in from time to time.
I don't day trade the way I used to.
thanks George.
I will look forward to it.
But what I've noticed in the past is that Ian publishes his public calls pretty much after the turn happens. I know his subscription forecasts are issued differently.
any idea when the next MC2 Cycle High is?
thanks
agreed, and I feel the same way wrt Buffet and several others . . . .
Bill Gross writes in his monthly outlook
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Feature...ross+2+2+4.htm
2009 is a similar demarcation point because it represents the beginning of government policy counterpunching, a period when the public with government as its proxy decided that private market, laissez-faire, free market capitalism was history and that a “private/public” partnership yet to gestate and evolve would be the model for years to come. If one had any doubts, a quick, even cursory summary of President Obama’s comments announcing Chrysler’s bankruptcy filing would suffice. “I stand with Chrysler’s employees and their families and communities. I stand with millions of Americans who want to buy Chrysler cars (sic). I do not stand…with a group of investment firms and hedge funds who decided to hold out for the prospect of an unjustified taxpayer-funded bailout.” If the cannons fired at Ft. Sumter marked the beginning of the war against the Union, then clearly these words marked the beginning of a war against publically perceived financial terror.
Make no mistake, PIMCO had no dog in this fight, and has infinitesimally small holdings of GM bonds as well. In turn, the rebalancing of wealth from the rich to the “not so rich” is a long overdue reversal, one that I have encouraged in these Outlooks for at least the past several years. But promoting and siding with the majority of the American public in their quest for change does not mean that as investors, we at PIMCO stand star-struck like a deer in front of the onrushing headlights, doing nothing to protect clients. Our task is to identify secular transitions and to preserve and protect capital if indeed it is threatened. Now appears to be one of those moments. . . .
Investors should recognize that this grassroots trend signals – most importantly – an increasing uncertainty of cash flows from financial assets. Not only will redistribution and reregulation lead to slower economic growth, but the financial flows from it will be haircutted and “burden shared” by stakeholders. In turn, the present value of those flows should reflect an increasing risk premium and a diminishing multiple of annual receipts. PIMCO’s Paul McCulley, famous for a catchy phrase or a light-bulb-generating truism, asked a group of clients the other day to compare FedEx and UPS to the U.S. Post Office, if it were a public corporation. “Which one would you pay more for?” he asked. If FedEx deserves a P/E of 12, wouldn’t the value of the Post Office be substantially less? His point, and mine as well, is that as wealth is redistributed, and the invisible private hand of Adam Smith begins to resemble more and more the public fist of government, then asset values should be negatively affected. First comes the haircutting and burden sharing, most recently evidenced by Chrysler and soon to be played out via the stress testing and equity dilution of government ownership of ailing banks. In those footsteps, however, will follow a slower rate of economic growth, not just in the U.S., but worldwide as heretofore libertarian capitalism is bridled, saddled and taught to trot instead of gallop over the investment plains.
I don't know.
this is a test . . . -g-
AJC alert-
Goldman Sachs’s Cohen Says S&P 500 May Surge to 1,050
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may jump 20 percent to 1,050 over the next six to 12 months as investors buy stocks trading at low valuations, said Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s senior investment strategist.
“You could see the market sustain at these levels,” Cohen, 57, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview. “We’re going to set a new trading range much higher than the trading range in February and March.”
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDBS5SWr2iDE&refer=home
New Economic Sentiment Indicator Introduced by Dow Jones Hints at First Tentative Signs of Recovery
NEW YORK, April 30, 2009 – A unique new monthly economic indicator introduced today by Dow Jones offers what could be an early signal that the economy may be lifting off its low point but any recovery remains very tentative.
The Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI)-
http://solutions.dowjones.com/economicsentimentindicator/
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/New-Economic-Sentiment-Indicator-Introduced/story.aspx?guid=%7B28B661FB-752B-425C-AE16-8933D8654F73%7D
U.S. Bank Test Results Delayed as Conclusions Debated (Update1)
By Craig Torres and Robert Schmidt
April 30 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve will postpone the release of stress tests on the biggest U.S. banks while executives debate preliminary findings with examiners, according to government and industry officials.
The results, originally scheduled for publication on May 4, now may not be revealed until toward the end of next week, said the people, who declined to be identified. A new release date may be announced as soon as tomorrow, they said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&sid=aPVqgPJeDyzE
this is why - and very interesting -
A 'Copper Standard' for the world's currency system?
Hard money enthusiasts have long watched for signs that China is switching its foreign reserves from US Treasury bonds into gold bullion. They may have been eyeing the wrong metal.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5160120/A-Copper-Standard-for-the-worlds-currency-system.html
I don't know if you saw this - I didn't see it posted here but might have missed it.
AJC was on cnbc Mar 24th. That day was right at the top of evil speculator's 1 {v}, I believe. (speaking of waves - and I don't know waves that well - how is it that his 2 {b} is higher than his 1 {v}?)
her comments -
Cohen said Goldman is pegging fair value for the S&P 500 at 900 in the near term and 1,000 over a 12-month period.
"It takes a lot of nerve to move into the market when it is looking as distressed as it was two weeks ago, but long-term investors know that is exactly when they should be moving in," she said.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29859155/site/14081545
So, if Ms. AJC was looking for 900 near term and 1000 over a 12-month period, what do we do for the next few months? -g-
aj,
remember my last post?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=36773894
I think obama is hinting to sell around the end of april-
The source said officials are aiming to release them [stress test results] in some form at the end of April after the first-quarter bank earnings season is over, and are trying to be sensitive to financial market reaction.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090410/ts_nm/us_financial_banks_obama_4
perhaps he wants people to take their earnings from his market rally and use the proceeds to refinance -
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090410/ap_on_go_pr_wh/obama_housing
obama told us to buy stocks on mar.4.
I'm waiting for him to say sell -G-
http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/obama/2009/03/04/obama-says-buy-stocks-now-good-deals-there-for-long-term-investors.html
found it - from March 20th-
If Citigroup pursued a reverse split, it could give a facelift to its share price. Citigroup could end up increasing its total outstanding shares from 15 billion to between 40 billion and 60 billion, a big number even for a large publicly traded corporation.
The reverse split that Citigroup asked investors to provisionally approve on Thursday would be a first in the company's history. The bank disclosed Thursday in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that it will seek approval to eventually consolidate its outstanding shares through one of seven different ratios, ranging from 1-for-2 to 1-for-30.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123746075961583107.html
that will be a nice boost for the dow-
I've actually been expecting for some stocks to be replaced in the djia-
gotta make it look good again . . . .
cnbc's ticker was showing C at 27.35, up 24+ -g-
I thought they had done a reverse split but couldn't find anything on it - now they fixed it
LOL
I was wondering why the BPSPX had reversed but not the BPINDU.
I guess those stocks @ 2 or 6 just don't move the indicator like they used to. -g-
but something is wrong with these BP's. The BPUTIL should be higher than 4.23, shouldn't it?
btw, I couldn't find that last one you listed . . . .
hi aj -
I've beenwatching the BP's and the BPINDU has been sitting
at 6.67 all week.
does stockcharts still use that symbol for
the industrials or does indy replace it, do you know?
thanks, Newly
I didn't realize the difference . . . .
Do you mean this Lloyd's of London?
March 7 (Bloomberg) -- Lloyds Banking Group Plc, Britain’s biggest mortgage lender, will cede control to Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s government in return for state guarantees covering 260 billion pounds ($367 billion) of risky assets.
The government’s stake will rise to as much as 75 percent, making Lloyds the fourth U.K. bank to slip into state control since the run on Northern Rock Plc in September 2007. Brown is using that leverage to force banks to increase lending to homeowners and businesses and spur an economy that is facing its worst recession since World War II.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=a6eUD3OLhKPg&refer=europe
hi aj - spy gap update
do you remember my post from Nov 12, 2008?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33517238
TrimTabs
Getting Bullish At The Wrong Time
Charles Biderman, TrimTabs, 12.16.08, 10:00 AM EST
Small investors and money managers alike are feeling a little happier about stocks this week, but that's not good.
http://www.forbes.com/finance/2008/12/16/bullish-bearish-trading-pf-etf-in_cb_1215trimtabs_inl.html
thanks. I don't really believe it either but, at some point, all of these printed $ should devalue the currency, wouldn't you think?
anyway, I would have thought that with what all that has gone on in the past two months, that if gold were going to fly over $1000, when else would have been a better time?
I don't trust it . . . .
(or anything else, for that matter -g-)
hi aj.
I value your opinions and would like to know what you think of gold.
Not as a trade and not the etf.
I mean, as in buying coins or the physical and holding for wealth protection over the next few years.
Do you believe in the gold hype?
hi aj -
today looks a little like Sept 29th, 2008
Sept 29 spx down 106.62, 8.79%
today spx down 80.03, 8.93%
------------
a 50% retrace tomorrow?
are we just retracing 50% from the last 5 up days, or retesting the lows,
or going to drop out of this wedge in three days, or . . . .?
I've got one better -
Buy 1 Dodge Ram truck, get one free -
http://www.foxnews.com/video/index.html
http://www.universitydodge.com/
edit -
Black Friday started a week early -
http://bfads.net/
11-21-08
All Securities
Time Calls Puts Total ISEE
16:15 771707 663876 1435583 116
16:10 771113 661693 1432806 117
15:50 745371 629282 1374653 118
15:30 702221 594658 1296879 118
15:10 659977 563379 1223356 117
14:50 607150 524644 1131794 116
14:30 582369 491678 1074047 118
14:10 563780 470807 1034587 120
13:50 530499 442323 972822 120
13:30 504095 425650 929745 118
13:10 470405 401633 872038 117
12:50 453780 383716 837496 118
12:30 432284 344937 777221 125
12:10 410643 328726 739369 125
11:50 382151 306068 688219 125
11:30 346458 289941 636399 119
11:10 311522 263465 574987 118
10:50 262724 214816 477540 122
10:30 225698 181753 407451 124
10:10 167347 130849 298196 128
09:50 96319 76395 172714 126
All Equities Only
Calls Puts Total ISEE
428570 418218 846788 102
428570 418218 846788 102
414119 400138 814257 103
384420 381052 765472 101
362268 363843 726111 100
342252 340373 682625 101
325440 315612 641052 103
313712 305871 619583 103
296304 290208 586512 102
287259 281005 568264 102
271377 262884 534261 103
261439 249517 510956 105
246552 217580 464132 113
233608 207795 441403 112
215152 194242 409394 111
190578 183592 374170 104
167951 168410 336361 100
147561 142224 289785 104
123511 120573 244084 102
88408 91077 179485 97
57883 54264 112147 107
Calls Puts Total ISEE
342607 245604 588211 139
342013 243421 585434 141
330722 229090 559812 144
317272 213562 530834 149
297180 199492 496672 149
264369 184227 448596 144
256400 176022 432422 146
249539 164892 414431 151
233674 152074 385748 154
216315 144604 360919 150
198507 138717 337224 143
191820 134167 325987 143
185211 127325 312536 145
176518 120899 297417 146
166866 111794 278660 149
155747 106317 262064 146
143438 95023 238461 151
115030 72565 187595 159
102054 61153 163207 167
78806 39769 118575 198
38326 22128 60454 173
oh wait - my screen cut it off -
that is wrong #
edit -
do you look at all equities and etf #'s?
that is 82 now
ISEE 191
or this afternoon . . . .-g-
I'm not happy.
that 77.81 gap didn't get closed . . . .
good morning aj.
for your (perhaps near-term) future reference -g-
-----
tea-
thanks for posting this chart - that rsi divergence was telling.
those are three nasty candles
that is one butt-ugly looking chart!
wonder how all those people who bought at that high volume 10400 something feel about now . . . .